Agreed, Gears needs a swan song and then you can let the franchise rest for a few years. And I can see that point as Halo and Forza literally print money. The power of those two brands will literally get people to buy your system. But after the XOne, I question MS's ability to make new IP that can persist into a successful series. What were their new IP this gen that got a sequel? Ori? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's it.
Their other new IPs (Quantum Theory, Sunset Overdrive, ReCore, Sea of Thieves, Cuphead) either didn't stay exclusive or only have one release. They had the rights for Tomb Raider for a bit, but now that's multiplat too. And they did have things like Scalebound and Fable, but those got canned. I'll be there (most likely) at launch for Halo, Hellblade 2, and inevitably Gears, but they need to show the new games. Sony crushed them in that regard this gen.