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Credit Suisse upgrades Nintendo rating, expects 130m Switches by 2022

V

Vic

Please help me with my bad english
The Switch is selling bonkers at 299$ USD.
And hardware is still in its first revision.
And games like Pokémon, Smash and Animal Crossing aren't announced yet.
And who knows which games will unexpectedly take off on this platform (ala Monster Hunter, Splatoon or Yokai Watch).

PS2 & DS numbers aren't that unrealistic.
 
M

malyce

Member
lol @ the people in this thread that are gonna try to rationalize this.

If the switch does 130M then the PS4 will surpass the PS2 as the best selling console and move on to sell 180M+ and rational people know that none of those things are going to happen.
 
P

phanphare

Banned
franklyshankly said:
That's true, but the Wii u was on par with the PS3 and 360 when it released. Switch is already substantially weaker than the current gen, let alone the pro and one x. It's just a weird landscape imo that I'm not sure compares to the past.
Click to expand...

you're giving far too much weight to hardware power. that stuff matters on here, sure, but to the market at large? not really

is the hardware appealing? is it priced well? does it have good games? will it continue to have good games?
 
M

massoluk

Banned
malyce said:
lol @ the people in this thread that are gonna try to rationalize this.

If the switch does 130M then the PS4 will surpass the PS2 as the best selling console and move on to sell 180M+ and rational people know that none of those things are going to happen.
Click to expand...
Yo, the Switch number stated is very high, but it has no correlation with PS4
 
L

Liabe Brave

Member
Expansion Pack said:
Wow, are you really going to sit there and act as if someone correctly predicting 200M when most were saying it would sell about 60M tops is "dumb luck?" It's not a gut feeling, it's a highly educated guess.
Click to expand...
Shame on me for thinking you had anything of value to say. Good day, sir.
 
P

Platy

Member
The more interesting thing is.,.how they reached this number ? Did random EA/rockstar gave them some inside info?
 
F

Fukuzatsu

Member
The argument from Credit Suisse seems to be from a Japanese analyst (Yoneshima Keiichi) who based their conclusions on a Famitsu survey that found users (in Japan) using Switch more like a portable than a traditional home console. Thus, the reasoning goes, the system is more likely to sell in line with handheld systems than home ones.

I can see this perhaps being the case in Japan, but is there good evidence for other territories that the Switch is used primarily as a portable system?
 
A

ASaiyan

Banned
That number is literally more than the Wii, so that analyst is insane, lol.

I'd guess 60 or 70 million for lifetime sales. 75 million max. And that's assuming they fix their supply problem.
 
K

Kuro

Member
Vic said:
The Switch is selling bonkers at 299$ USD.
And hardware is still in its first revision.
And games like Pokémon, Smash and Animal Crossing aren't announced yet.
And who knows which games will unexpectedly take off on this platform (ala Monster Hunter, Splatoon or Yokai Watch).

PS2 & DS numbers aren't that unrealistic.
Click to expand...

The 3DS had all those games at a cheaper price and hasn't hit near 100m what are you smokin.
 
O

OrbitalBeard

Member
Kuro said:
The 3DS had all those games at a cheaper price and hasn't hit near 100m what are you smokin.
Click to expand...

3DS struggled big time at $250. Switch isn't struggling at $299.

3DS is not a very compelling product. Switch is. 3DS sold based on its software. Switch is selling based on its software and its hardware.
 
K

KuwabaraTheMan

Banned
Fukuzatsu said:
The argument from Credit Suisse seems to be from a Japanese analyst (Yoneshima Keiichi) who based their conclusions on a Famitsu survey that found users (in Japan) using Switch more like a portable than a traditional home console. Thus, the reasoning goes, the system is more likely to sell in line with handheld systems than home ones.

I can see this perhaps being the case in Japan, but is there good evidence for other territories that the Switch is used primarily as a portable system?
Click to expand...

The strength of the Switch is that it can sell like a portable in Japan (where portables sell best) and like a console in other territories where consoles sell best, making it the best of both worlds for Nintendo.
 
P

phanphare

Banned
Kuro said:
The 3DS had all those games at a cheaper price and hasn't hit near 100m what are you smokin.
Click to expand...

the 3DS hardware is less appealing then the Switch's hardware

the 3DS couldn't play full fledged console games like BotW or Splatoon

the 3DS's popularity was lopsided in favor of Japan whereas the Switch is as popular as the 3DS in Japan as well as other markets
 
T

thrillho88

Member
Look, nothing is impossible. Who knows what could come along, imagine if one day they refresh the hardware in a way that makes it even more attractive to a broader audience. By then you've got a very healthy library with includes very heavy hitters like Mario, Pokemon, Zelda and hypotheticals like Pokemon, Metroid Prime, Animal Crossing and god knows third parties and indies they will have.
Add portability and built-in 2-player and you have yourself product that could realistically break 100m in its lifetime.
 
S

Skittzo0413

Member
Kuro said:
The 3DS had all those games at a cheaper price and hasn't hit near 100m what are you smokin.
Click to expand...

Switch is likely tracking ahead of the 3DS in the West and probably worldwide as a whole, and it doesn't have a single one of those games yet.

I can certainly see 100 million in the cards in general, maybe even 130. 130 by 2022 is insane though.
 
A

AmFreak

Member
Vic said:
The Switch is selling bonkers at 299$ USD.
And hardware is still in its first revision.
And games like Pokémon, Smash and Animal Crossing aren't announced yet.
And who knows which games will unexpectedly take off on this platform (ala Monster Hunter, Splatoon or Yokai Watch).

PS2 & DS numbers aren't that unrealistic.
Click to expand...
One, PS4 and even WiiU sold "bonkers" at the beginning.
The reason for these numbers are worldwide launches with unmatched supply in comparison to older home consoles (outside of Wii).
 
D

Deku89

Member
Skittzo0413 said:
The other interesting part of the article cited the MOBA that's insanely popular in China (on mobile now, can't remember the name) as a potential driver for these sales. I wonder if this analyst is expecting a much bigger Nintendo presence in China with the Switch.



Yeah the Wii dropped off massively in Japan fairly quickly IIRC, and the Switch has the potential to do 3DS numbers (possibly even DS numbers after a price cut or revision) there assuming there's enough stock.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think the only way it's possible to reach those numbers if it can break into China, India, and other untapped markets. The price will have to go down quite a bit and there'll have to be a few revisions.

It's fun to think about and it'll be interesting to come back to this thread in a couple of years.
 
S

Speely

Banned
No matter how much it sells (which will be a LOT even if it's sub-130m,) the Switch is the best move Nintendo could have made.

Caps off to them.
 
S

Strings

Member
Would take Nintendo projections with a grain of salt. Especially those that cite Famitsu surveys.

Not to say the system won't do well, but this sort of insane optimism hits financial analysts every single time Nintendo is in the headlines, and it's absurdly overvalued every time.
 
D

Dyle

Member
This time next year we'll get the headline "Credit Suisse downgrades Nintendo rating, expects 70m Switches by 2022" Their initial estimate of 70m was fairly high as is, nearly doubling it is madness. The 3DS hasn't even hit 70m in more than 6 years, so I have a hard time seeing a more expensive system, with more expensive games selling almost twice as much in the same timeframe even given how well it's doing.
 
T

Toxi

Banned
Fukuzatsu said:
The argument from Credit Suisse seems to be from a Japanese analyst (Yoneshima Keiichi) who based their conclusions on a Famitsu survey that found users (in Japan) using Switch more like a portable than a traditional home console. Thus, the reasoning goes, the system is more likely to sell in line with handheld systems than home ones.

I can see this perhaps being the case in Japan, but is there good evidence for other territories that the Switch is used primarily as a portable system?
Click to expand...
For reference, the Nintendo DS didn't reach 130 million until a bit over 5 years after it came out.

So those analysts aren't just speculating the Switch will sell in line with handheld systems, they're speculating the Switch will sell in line with the best selling handheld system of all time.
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
phanphare said:
the 3DS was extremely popular in Japan and less so in North America

the Switch is popular in both markets
Click to expand...

We really don't know how popular it is in the western market yet .
It selling out shipments in the USA but those are not big numbers if you talking about 100 plus million .
Also from what i read you can find it now in certain EU countries easier .
It still to early to tell how popular it is until Nintendo get the shipments in order at least in the west .
 
J

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Agree with those saying only if it's a family of systems, revisions.

If not, agree with those saying 60-80 million.
 
S

Strings

Member
BrokenJohnCena said:
how is the ww numbers of the switch compared to the 3ds 6 months from launch only?
Click to expand...

At 4 months it was slightly outpacing the 3DS (~4.32m vs ~4.7m) launch in the same timeframe, but well behind the Wii (5.84m) and DS (5.27m).

EDIT: Useless context, but the PS4 sold 5.3m units in just 3 months, and I don't think even that will make 130m.
 
T

Toxi

Banned
AmFreak said:
One, PS4 and even WiiU sold "bonkers" at the beginning.
The reason for these numbers are worldwide launches with unmatched supply in comparison to older home consoles (outside of Wii).
Click to expand...
The PS4 is still selling pretty bonkers. Nowhere near PS2 bonkers, but still bonkers.
 
I

InvincibleFist

Member
I don't see Switch sales hitting 130 million units over the next five years, but find these 40 - 60 million predictions to be just as unlikely. I think 80 million units is a very realistic expectation and wouldn't be surprised if the final number was closer to 100 million. Don't forget that the system will go through multiple price drops and a revision or two before 2022.
 
J

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
KuwabaraTheMan said:
The strength of the Switch is that it can sell like a portable in Japan (where portables sell best) and like a console in other territories where consoles sell best, making it the best of both worlds for Nintendo.
Click to expand...
The thing is, I don't think it's selling well in other territories because of the dock.

I really believe it's success overall is because it's also, and primarily, a handheld.
 
Lynd7

Lynd7

Member
Switch is nowhere as big as Wii was, I don't see how it could hit such a number. I see Switch under 100 million lifetime.
 
J

jman2050

Member
130m sounds absurd but I do think there's a decent chance it'll outsell the PS4 eventually, though that's under the assumption Sony will cut off the PS4 at the knees for the PS5 in the near future.
 
P

phanphare

Banned
Lynd7 said:
Switch is nowhere as big as Wii was, I don't see how it could hit such a number. I see Switch under 100 million lifetime.
Click to expand...

Switch will be bigger than the Wii in Japan and could be on par with it in other territories. it'll also likely outlive the Wii.
 
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