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Credit Suisse upgrades Nintendo rating, expects 130m Switches by 2022

Speely

Banned
Oct 10, 2015
6,364
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Seattle, WA
Yeaaaaah no. Technology moves way to fast for Nintendo to sit on old tech for 5 years. I can only see this if they truly wanted to make this the successor to the 3DS

To be fair, they did adopt a scaleable architecture and patent SCD tech.

It's not unthinkable that they could keep up as costs came down, sucking hind-tit in the power dept just enough to keep up via their hybrid approach.
 

J@hranimo

Banned
Sep 11, 2009
13,227
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130 million....now I'm no numbers guy with projections and stuff, but that does seem like quite a large number even for 5 years.

It'll do very well, but this well? eh...I don't know!
 

yukianderson

Member
Feb 13, 2014
540
0
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Puerto Rico
It will outsell the Xbone but not the PS4. I'll be surprised if it passes 60 million consoles sold. It will probably cap at 50 million by the time PS5 arrives.
 
Jul 28, 2014
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130 million....now I'm no numbers guy with projections and stuff, but that does seem like quite a large number even for 5 years.

It'll do very well, but this well? eh...I don't know!

I'd have to guess they're just directly basing their expectations on the Wii, since 5 years was essentially the span of its popularity relevance before falling off.
 
Jan 29, 2007
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NO!

IT'S NOT ALLOWED!!

*body contorts into an other worldly configuration*

NO!

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
 

D.Lo

Member
Aug 20, 2006
9,836
1
1,470
Sydney Australia
Japan and the Switch will be the difference maker and put the switch on top.
Yeah that's one thing that seems a lock, it's going to utterly dominate Japan unlike anything since the PS2. 3DS will fade, Vita will be gone, and PS4 will be relegated to a niche. Switch will maybe hit DS levels.
 
Dec 19, 2016
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lol @ the people in this thread that are gonna try to rationalize this.

If the switch does 130M then the PS4 will surpass the PS2 as the best selling console and move on to sell 180M+ and rational people know that none of those things are going to happen.

Rational people use data driven evidence to back up their assertions.

With the rate the Switch is selling it'll mirror the DS's sales track long term

hush.
 

sanstesy

Member
Jul 26, 2016
2,960
0
325
Frankfurt, Germany
As of now 130m seems a little high but 100m should be a lock.

lol @ the people in this thread that are gonna try to rationalize this.

If the switch does 130M then the PS4 will surpass the PS2 as the best selling console and move on to sell 180M+ and rational people know that none of those things are going to happen.

I love your "when Nintendo sells that much Sony has to sell that much more" rationalization even more. Console superiority complex.
 

Sweet Bellic

Member
Dec 6, 2016
288
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340
That would be a fantastic result.
For Nintendo and Switch owners, certainly. But as someone who would love to see games like BotW officially ported to PC someday, where they can really shine in full HD and 60+fps, I'm admittedly threatened by the success of Nintendo hardware.
 

Jaded Alyx

Member
Apr 17, 2007
19,834
4
1,330
Grenada
For Nintendo and Switch owners, certainly. But as someone who would love to see games like BotW officially ported to PC someday, where they can really shine in full HD and 60+fps, I'm admittedly threatened by the success of Nintendo hardware.

the hell is this shit
 

Si2k78

Member
Mar 22, 2017
178
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I was thinking. Why are people assuming that the PS4 will continue to sell at its current pace? What we know about market disrupters (and the switch fits the definition of a market disrupter in this case), is that it changes the trajectory of the market. Isn't it at all conceivable, now that we have a viable third alternative for a gaming consoles, an attractive one at that with the switch, video game consumers can opt for the switch instead of purchasing the PS4? If this happens, I can totally see the switch hitting it's target sales number at the expense of the ps4.
 

D.Lo

Member
Aug 20, 2006
9,836
1
1,470
Sydney Australia
For Nintendo and Switch owners, certainly. But as someone who would love to see games like BotW officially ported to PC someday, where they can really shine in full HD and 60+fps, I'm admittedly threatened by the success of Nintendo hardware.
I can't tell if this is sarcasm?
 

Yoshimitsu126

Member
Jun 18, 2016
2,548
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If Switch continues to sell like the 3DS or better, Japan alone will guarantee 20+ million Switch LTD and NA not too far behind. But with a unified library I can see the Switch and its revision possibly reaching PS3 sales (~90 million) easily especially if third party support from the west and Japan continues.
 

reelbigtink

Member
Feb 6, 2012
2,518
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0
For Nintendo and Switch owners, certainly. But as someone who would love to see games like BotW officially ported to PC someday, where they can really shine in full HD and 60+fps, I'm admittedly threatened by the success of Nintendo hardware.

Niko, cousin, Nintendo is never going third party!
 

Hattori

Banned
Sep 30, 2012
5,662
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For Nintendo and Switch owners, certainly. But as someone who would love to see games like BotW officially ported to PC someday, where they can really shine in full HD and 60+fps, I'm admittedly threatened by the success of Nintendo hardware.
lol
 
Dec 19, 2016
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For Nintendo and Switch owners, certainly. But as someone who would love to see games like BotW officially ported to PC someday, where they can really shine in full HD and 60+fps, I'm admittedly threatened by the success of Nintendo hardware.

You're more likely to get games that you can later emulate on PC if nintendo hardware is successful

so you;re being dumb

and flat out wrong
 

OrbitalBeard

Member
Jun 2, 2013
24,901
8
0
For Nintendo and Switch owners, certainly. But as someone who would love to see games like BotW officially ported to PC someday, where they can really shine in full HD and 60+fps, I'm admittedly threatened by the success of Nintendo hardware.

On one hand, lol

On the other hand, I actually kind of appreciate the honestly, as there are definitely others who share your view, but would never admit to it.
 
Dec 19, 2016
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I did and its behind PS4 bro.

In the US sure.

In Japan its far ahead, and its tracking similarly in european territories not named the UK or India.

The PS4 is having very high sales and so is the Switch. We shall see how they shake out long term, provided how much they can manufacture.
 

BlackBuzzard

Banned
Sep 23, 2013
11,952
1,214
670
In the US sure.

In Japan its far ahead, and its tracking similarly in european territories not named the UK or India.

The PS4 is having very high sales and so is the Switch. We shall see how they shake out long term, provided how much they can manufacture.

Receipts or you making this shit up switch is behind in Germany,UK,Netherlands,Spain etc outside of France Nintendo is nowhere near Playstation in those European countries. Japan is a dying market that is moving more and more towards mobile.
 

Instro

Member
Jan 14, 2009
24,476
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California
I guess they expect them to up their FY forecast as well. It would be wild if they actually end up shipping 18m or whatever that rumored number was.
 

AmyS

Member
Aug 22, 2012
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Best thing about Switch being very successful?

It basically ensures another generation or two of Nintendo consoles. Hell, Nvidia thinks their partnership with Nintendo will last 2 decades.
 
Apr 29, 2017
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Receipts or you making this shit up switch is behind in Germany,UK,Netherlands,Spain etc outside of France Nintendo is nowhere near Playstation in those European countries. Japan is a dying market that is moving more and more towards mobile.

I mean, you could do a tiny amount of research and figure it out yourself? and yes, the Switch is far far ahead of the PS4 week for week in Japan, like, it's so far ahead I'm pretty sure the guy who makes the graphs took PS4 off and is just comparing it to DS, Wii, PSP, and 3DS.
 
Dec 19, 2016
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Receipts or you making this shit up switch is behind in Germany,UK,Netherlands,Spain etc outside of France Nintendo is nowhere near Playstation in those European countries. Japan is a dying market that is moving more and more towards mobile.

??? Since when has Germany been a weak market for Nintendo? Hell that's where NOE is.

Come on dude lol.

If you dont follow sales age on a regular basis like the rest of us do, dont make pointless assertions about how these devices will sell lmao
 

BlackBuzzard

Banned
Sep 23, 2013
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I mean, you could do a tiny amount of research and figure it out yourself? and yes, the Switch is far far ahead of the PS4 week for week in Japan, like, it's so far ahead I'm pretty sure the guy who makes the graphs took PS4 off and is just comparing it to DS, Wii, PSP, and 3DS.

I was talking about the Europe part not the Japanese part.
 

Jigorath

Banned
Aug 22, 2013
12,902
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twitter.com
I was thinking. Why are people assuming that the PS4 will continue to sell at its current pace? What we know about market disrupters (and the switch fits the definition of a market disrupter in this case), is that it changes the trajectory of the market. Isn't it at all conceivable, now that we have a viable third alternative for a gaming consoles, an attractive one at that with the switch, video game consumers can opt for the switch instead of purchasing the PS4? If this happens, I can totally see the switch hitting it's target sales number at the expense of the ps4.

Because the Switch has been out since March and PS4 sales haven't declined at all.

In fact, the PS4 has sold faster than ever in the first half of 2017.
 

TwistedFreeze

Member
Dec 15, 2015
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Because the Switch has been out since March and PS4 sales haven't declined at all.

In fact, the PS4 has sold faster than ever in the first half of 2017.
Well it's not like the Switch will peak in it's first year, seeing as most systems don't peak in their first year unless they're failures, like the Wii U
 

D.Lo

Member
Aug 20, 2006
9,836
1
1,470
Sydney Australia
Where are the receipts that Japan is a "dying market" ?

Hyperbole in the extreme.
PS4 has sold poorly, after PS3 and Vita sold mediocre, so it is a dying market for Sony (and generally 'mainstream western') platforms.

3DS is the #2 selling platform of all time however (#3 if [incorrectly] counting 14 years of Game Boy+Game Boy Color sales combined as one platform), and Switch is already a cultural monster, so overall Japan is looking up as a whole.
 
Dec 19, 2016
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Because the Switch has been out since March and PS4 sales haven't declined at all.

In fact, the PS4 has sold faster than ever in the first half of 2017.

Well its not like we'd know that now dude, PS4 is in peak year sales wise.

It took the Wii a few years to lose momentum due to loss of software.

For the Switch to eat the PS4's lunch it'd need to have some of the same key pieces of software and support in the online department as that's a big draw these days for those titles
 
Apr 29, 2017
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I was talking about the Europe part not the Japanese part.

I see, my mistake, however calling Japan a dying market is laughable either way, it might be for Playstation, however it has become incredibly obvious that Japan considers Switch just as much a handheld as the 3DS, and roughly 1/3 of the total 3DS sales were in Japan alone and it has sold better in Japan than the entirety of North America, certainly not a number you can merely dismiss as a "dying market".
 

TwistedFreeze

Member
Dec 15, 2015
824
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330
When did I say anything about the Switch peaking in its first year?

Did you quote the wrong person?
Oh no, it's just that you're pointing out that the PS4 has only been selling better and better year over year so I thought you were implying that the Switch wouldn't do that. My bad if I misinterpreted you
 

And_Gignac

Member
Dec 22, 2013
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Receipts or you making this shit up switch is behind in Germany,UK,Netherlands,Spain etc outside of France Nintendo is nowhere near Playstation in those European countries. Japan is a dying market that is moving more and more towards mobile.

The Switch has outsold the PS4 in most of its months since released (in the US). All this with a lot of production issues.

Japan is a dying market for Sony. Nintendo is doing as good as ever.
 
Sep 4, 2015
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I was thinking. Why are people assuming that the PS4 will continue to sell at its current pace? What we know about market disrupters (and the switch fits the definition of a market disrupter in this case), is that it changes the trajectory of the market. Isn't it at all conceivable, now that we have a viable third alternative for a gaming consoles, an attractive one at that with the switch, video game consumers can opt for the switch instead of purchasing the PS4? If this happens, I can totally see the switch hitting it's target sales number at the expense of the ps4.
PS4 and Switch actually seem to have synergy. Neither is eating at the other. PS4 is having its best year so far despite the Switch launch.
 

Jigorath

Banned
Aug 22, 2013
12,902
4
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twitter.com
Oh no, it's just that you're pointing out that the PS4 has only been selling better and better year over year so I thought you were implying that the Switch wouldn't do that. My bad if I misinterpreted you

All good.

Switch shouldn't peak for a couple more years barring a 3DS-like sales collapse. I expect the PS4 to start declining next year since it'll be in its 5th year on the market. And the successor will probably out 2019-2020.
 

ZOONAMI

Junior Member
Nov 4, 2013
9,396
0
0
Saint Paul, MN
I think if this includes a spec bump switch revision to a new Tegra chip in like 2019-2020 and it still isn't technically switch 2 but switch plus or something, sure (more like 100mil tops though, not this 130m nonsense).

It's gonna be looking very dated by Ps5 launch which will be right around 2020. That's really only 2 years to sell the bulk of its lifetime sales unless they do a pretty major revision to boost sales for a few more years.