Keeping everything exclusive with the exception of deals already locked in, or online/multiplayer type titles already released and being supported makes by far the most sense.
I think it ultimately comes down to a single question and from there I think you have your answer on whether or not the biggest games from Bethesda will become Xbox console exclusive.
Do you believe Microsoft spent $7.5 billion to have Bethesda and all their major game technology and intellectual property, such as Starfield, Doom, Elder Scrolls, Fallout, Wolfenstein, Dishonored, Prey, Quake, Rage, did Microsoft spend that money to make all those franchises from Bethesda synonymous with the Xbox brand and inseparable from Xbox? As in you think Bethesda, you think Xbox & Game Pass?
If your answer to that is yes there's only one strategy that will accomplish that goal. Microsoft did this to initiate a major power shift. This isn't just a strictly business "we will get all those sales from Xbox, PC, Playstation and Nintendo" move. This is a move that says they know and understand Bethesda's power and following, and they want it all for Xbox.
This is for Xbox consoles, PC, Xbox Game Pass, this is for Xcloud, Android streaming, iPhone streaming, web browser streaming because I believe they just recently previewed their browser based game streaming solution or something like that?