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What are the chances of Halo 3 in fall/winter '06?
- Thread starter Futureman
- Start date
Chittagong
Gold Member
As much as I'd love to get Halo 3 for Christmas 06, I see pretty much a zero chance of it happening.
I bet they've spent at least a good half an year in preproduction after their Halo 2 holidays, taking them up to August. That would leave them with one year for production, which for a flagship next generation title is... close to impossible.
Everything should fall perfectly in place:
- Realistic and implementable design document
- Timely delivery of usable art assets from Weta
- Very efficient and foolproof middleware
That said, if they would manage to pull off the release of the Halo movie with a great Halo 3 to counter PS3 launch excitement, I could actually see Microsoft winning this generation in US and maybe EU even.
Then again, I don't think they will really need to release it next year. A solid E3 06 presentation to build up the hype for a Christsmas 07 release is more beneficial and will take lots of wind out of Sony's sails for a prolonged period. A superpolished, true next generation Halo 3 hyped for a year and a half is something hard to impossible to counter.
I bet they've spent at least a good half an year in preproduction after their Halo 2 holidays, taking them up to August. That would leave them with one year for production, which for a flagship next generation title is... close to impossible.
Everything should fall perfectly in place:
- Realistic and implementable design document
- Timely delivery of usable art assets from Weta
- Very efficient and foolproof middleware
That said, if they would manage to pull off the release of the Halo movie with a great Halo 3 to counter PS3 launch excitement, I could actually see Microsoft winning this generation in US and maybe EU even.
Then again, I don't think they will really need to release it next year. A solid E3 06 presentation to build up the hype for a Christsmas 07 release is more beneficial and will take lots of wind out of Sony's sails for a prolonged period. A superpolished, true next generation Halo 3 hyped for a year and a half is something hard to impossible to counter.
Several things point to the possibility. First, Bungie is using at least one third party solution (Havok 2.0) to replace a custom solution that they spend a very long time struggling with Halo 2 (there was an article on b.net about six months ago on this). If they use Unreal 3 - not unlikely - then that will further streamline the development process.
In addition, many of the online tools they developed from scratch - Matchmaking in particular - are out-of-the-box in the new XBox Live, which should further streamline the online implimentation.
The team is 2x the size it was at the start of Halo 2. With that game the team spiked up fast in the latter half of development, bringing in new staff, contractors and a half dozen or so folks from MGS (and FASA in particular). Larger staff of designers, engineers and artists up front means more production earlier in the project.
Much of the Halo 2 development time was due to having to re-work ideas to accomdate their engine. The entire lighting model - which was originally unified, as seen in the Halo 2 announcement trailer - was re-written from scratch when they found they just could not pull it off on any scale. Likewise most of the graphics engine; they could not pull off levels like the 2003 E3 demo and had to redesign the game from the ground up. (Most of this information is on the DVD from the LE).
If they learned from their mistakes and do not have to re-invent the wheel on their graphics, lighting and physics engines and learned from their design issues the first half of Halo 2's development, #3 should not take nearly as long.
In addition, many of the online tools they developed from scratch - Matchmaking in particular - are out-of-the-box in the new XBox Live, which should further streamline the online implimentation.
The team is 2x the size it was at the start of Halo 2. With that game the team spiked up fast in the latter half of development, bringing in new staff, contractors and a half dozen or so folks from MGS (and FASA in particular). Larger staff of designers, engineers and artists up front means more production earlier in the project.
Much of the Halo 2 development time was due to having to re-work ideas to accomdate their engine. The entire lighting model - which was originally unified, as seen in the Halo 2 announcement trailer - was re-written from scratch when they found they just could not pull it off on any scale. Likewise most of the graphics engine; they could not pull off levels like the 2003 E3 demo and had to redesign the game from the ground up. (Most of this information is on the DVD from the LE).
If they learned from their mistakes and do not have to re-invent the wheel on their graphics, lighting and physics engines and learned from their design issues the first half of Halo 2's development, #3 should not take nearly as long.
Late Stage Marxist
Member
Halo Championship 2006 FTW 
Chittagong
Gold Member
mrklaw said:
That could be only the cherry on the cake. Their premature launch seems to be paying off, and with exclusive, solid games like Gear of War still on the way before or around PS3 launch they will be able to establish a good installed base before PS3 comes out.
At that point it's critical to Sony to have the top hype reserved for PS3, and the last thing you'd want to run in is Halo 3 hype.
My main concern on what we know of the Microsoft original portfolio 2006-2007 is that it might not be broad appeal enough - tons of scifi (Halo 3, Mass Effect, Too Human, Crackdown) and fantasy (N3, Blue Dragon) but not much else. It's pretty hardcore again, actually.
Sony has a LOT more balanced portfolio with a casual mud racer Motorstorm, a modern crime game Getaway, scifi shooters Killzone and I8, a fantasy shooter Lair, a flying shooter Warhawk, a fantasy hack'n'slash Heavenly Sword, a serious driving simulator GT5 and a exclusive F1 game.
Now that I think of it, Sony's original portfolio is actually damn nicely balanced.
MS' launch is going well, but its a launch. Nutters will always buy new consoles at launch. Lets see how their shipped numbers Vs sales go over the next few months. If they can ship and sell through close to 3m in 90 days - *thats* an impressive start.
As for Halo 3 hype being the last thing Sony would want to come up against - perhaps. If I put my cynical/devil's advocate hat on, I could say that potential PS3 launch hype could cast Halo 3 as 'just some game coming out' in comparison.
MS have some good ammunition available, but they need to use all their shots wisely to pull this off.
As for Halo 3 hype being the last thing Sony would want to come up against - perhaps. If I put my cynical/devil's advocate hat on, I could say that potential PS3 launch hype could cast Halo 3 as 'just some game coming out' in comparison.
MS have some good ammunition available, but they need to use all their shots wisely to pull this off.
I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised to see a Winter 06 release for Halo 3.
For one, it would be perfect for the MS E3 press conference to show a Halo 3 trailer.
Two, Microsoft is going to need all the help it can get if the PS3 comes out in NA next winter.
Three, .... I don't know. It could happen though.
For one, it would be perfect for the MS E3 press conference to show a Halo 3 trailer.
Two, Microsoft is going to need all the help it can get if the PS3 comes out in NA next winter.
Three, .... I don't know. It could happen though.
Haleon said:
there are problems with your two points though...
a trailer for halo 3 could certainly be done for the game even if there is zero chance for a 06 launch. hell, halo 2 had the announcement trailer, an e3 trailer, the next year had a halo2 multiplayer demo, then finally released.
while thats true, MS has gone on record saying that halo 3 will be out when its done. surely there is pressure to make that fall 06, but bungie gets last say on that, not MS
op_ivy said:
True.
op_ivy said:
See, I'm not so sure about this one. Judging from the impressions and the history, I'd be willing to bet that Rare got pressured into getting PD0 out on day one. From a business standpoint, it's MS that has the final say on when a game gets out when they own the developer. Bungie isn't a second party, they're fully owned by MS.
Besides, with MS preaching their middleware platforms and ease of development, it's feasible for Bungie to finish the game within two years. And I assume they have been working on Halo 3 before Halo 2 was even finished. As soon as the story for H2 was developed, I'm sure they had the writers go straight to the drawing board on H3 while programming and design was still working away on H2. I'd be willing to bet the story for H3 has been finished for quite some time, leaving the two years devoted strictly to level design and programming.
It'd be nice if it worked out that way but it didnt for Halo2, and please dont post the "they had to re-do a lot after e3 for halo 2" thing again, i know that, but this time they are working on new hardware with even more pressure on them to deliver something incredible.
So i really wouldnt suggest even contemplating Halo 3 next year, but lets just see how far they've gotten at E3.
So i really wouldnt suggest even contemplating Halo 3 next year, but lets just see how far they've gotten at E3.
I'm surprised that Microsoft didn't press Bungie to announce their new project just before the 360 launch. I know the Bungie staff play everything close to the vest, but even a teaser would have helped the 360 sales (not that it needs much more hype).
That said, I wouldn't even try to speculate on the release of Halo 3. Assuming it is being worked on, you can bet it won't be announced until the development is well under way and Bungie has something solid to show.
That said, I wouldn't even try to speculate on the release of Halo 3. Assuming it is being worked on, you can bet it won't be announced until the development is well under way and Bungie has something solid to show.
I think Fall 2007. The engine/tools team was probably working on the engine the last few months while the rest of the team has been busy with the map pack.
I expect the hype to start a lot earlier then that though. Imagine an E3-2006 demo, which would be downloadable for free on the Xbox Live marketplace right after the conference is over, it would be huge.
I expect the hype to start a lot earlier then that though. Imagine an E3-2006 demo, which would be downloadable for free on the Xbox Live marketplace right after the conference is over, it would be huge.
Chief give snake a heart attack by forcing him to look at the NPD data, then hack into his earpiece and forward through all the xbox live kiddies screaming "PWNED,HAHAHAHA COCKFUCK!".
Then snake would kneel down to call otacon and MC would stick his boot through the back of snakes head.
[/gamefaqs]
Then snake would kneel down to call otacon and MC would stick his boot through the back of snakes head.
[/gamefaqs]
I'd say highly unlikely considering MGS (Microsoft Game Studios) will most likely release Gears of War as their big title during that period of time. They should also have Too Human done, if not close to done and perhaps Forza Motorsport 360. I'm guessing Halo 3 will make a Summer 2007 simultaneous release along with the movie.
Sathsquatch
Member
Just like last time!Bud said:
SolidSnakex
Member
DSN2K said:
If MGS4 is even done by then, the way Kojima's talked lately they've barely even started it.
Guileless said:
They backpedalled on that. Referring back to Gate's comments, another Xbox exec since said that it'll come out when it's done, and won't be rushed for anything. I hope that's actually true, but a little part of me says they are strongly aiming to "meet" PS3.
Of course they're aiming for the PS3 launch. They need something to slow down the Sony momentum.gofreak said:
The reason Halo 2 took so long is because of poor development. There's no reason in the world it should have taken four years to develop that game. If you watch the documentary included with Halo 2, you can tell they basically pissed their time away in a lot of respects.
Under tight project management, they should be able to roll H3 out in a much shorter timeframe.