A theoretical break in the traditional handheld BC is really the only point that could change things up.
I think leaving handheld for next year worldwide might make sense if they can't get everything out this year. I don't expect Japan to have a packed Wii U lineup for the rest of 2016, but there might be enough 3DS games to struggle on until next Feb/March.
And at this point it's impossible to say what the NX handheld is even gonna
be, least of all compatibility concerns. But when it comes to profit, I think it'd be best to release the new Pokemon on 3DS either way. A 3DS Pokemon probably wouldn't have done much with the 3DS's $250 price point at launch, and if the NX handheld flounders, it's not gonna be because there wasn't a Pokemon game for it right away. The NX handheld'll need games at launch to be sure, but it doesn't need Pokemon. Squeeze the last bits of profit you can get from the 3DS and use that for an NX handheld game in the future when it needs momentum beyond launch.
I totally agree. Even with the 3DS getting on in age, it still has a bit more life in it than the Wii U, and if need be, I think it could hold the line until a NX handheld release at some point in the spring/summer of 2017. The 3DS doesn't really have much more in terms of library than the Wii U for 2016, at least I don't think so, but the new Pokemon can give it a brief second wind. The Wii U sure as hell doesn't have that luxury, so if Nintendo needs to focus on one or the other, they need to get the NX console out the door first.