Support NeoGAF

[Mozza]

yes they bought the switch in large numbers, does that mean they’ll upgrade in those same numbers?

Does the casual fan look to drop another 400 dollars for Mario kart 9 when they already have Mario kart 8. What exactly is the draw in the new Mario kart?

This has always been a problem for Nintendo.

I think you are looking at this from the core gamers perspective, or your own personal reasons for upgrading a console etc, and of course your power expectations equating to cost. When in reality none of this matters to the mass market, they just do not buy things for the same reasons as the core minorities, who are obsessed with such things.

The Switch was behind the PS4 and Xbox One in terms of power, that gap widened even more with the release of the PS5 and Series X, and one could argue in terms or power for price, both those generations offer better value for money in that respect. But like I said the mass majority of the market does not view things in that way, hence the continued success of the current Switch, despite it's more modest power, and price point.

Not so sure Nintendo's problem is Mario Kart, the game just continues to print money.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I think you are looking at this from the core gamers perspective, or your own personal reasons for upgrading a console etc, and of course your power expectations equating to cost. When in reality none of this matters to the mass market, they just do not buy things for the same reasons as the core minorities, who are obsessed with such things.

The Switch was behind the PS4 and Xbox One in terms of power, that gap widened even more with the release of the PS5 and Series X, and one could argue in terms or power for price, both those generations offer better value for money in that respect. But like I said the mass majority of the market does not view things in that way, hence the continued success of the current Switch, despite it's more modest power, and price point.

Not so sure Nintendo's problem is Mario Kart, the game just continues to print money.

Nintendo's historic problem has been getting people to upgrade systems when they're entirely satisfied with the current one.

A power upgrade for those who don't care about power, isn't the selling point you think it is.

Nintendo's problem is people are completely happy with Mario Kart 8 and Mario Kart 9 isn't going to be an easy sell.

People think the Wii U was an obvious failure, but it had the games that sold well on the Wii.

The Wii launched for 249.99 and the Wii U launched for only 299.99. The Wii U even was compatible with the Wiimotes.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

yes they bought the switch in large numbers, does that mean they’ll upgrade in those same numbers?

Does the casual fan look to drop another 400 dollars for Mario kart 9 when they already have Mario kart 8. What exactly is the draw in the new Mario kart?

This has always been a problem for Nintendo.

Bro they made Mario Karts 1-7 before they got to 8 and players upgraded every time, what makes you think 9 is going to be massively different?

 

[Deerock71]

Meanwhile...EA still trying to figure out if it would be worth it to bring a Madden title over. EA boardroom should be like:

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Bro they made Mario Karts 1-7 before they got to 8 and players upgraded every time, what makes you think 9 is going to be massively different?

Except that is NOT true.

Mario Kart Wii sold 37 million units.

Mario Kart Wii U sold 8.4 million units...

People did not upgrade from Wii to Wii U just for Mario Kart. It sold well on the Switch because people bought the switch. It sold poor relative to the results of other games in the franchise recently because Wii U didn't sell well.

 

[Hudo]

Mario Kart is basically video game racing now. I don't know of any surviving racing franchise which can compare for mainstream gaming.

Hmm. I thought that Forza Horizon and Gran Turismo are fairly popular on their respective platforms. But yeah, I bet they don't do Mario Kart numbers.

 

[alucard0712_rus]

Without their recent games on subscription plans, without porting one single game to PC and without plaguing their games with cinematics. How do they do this? Just doing old school games focused on gameplay and fun like they were done in the past? How dare they?

Also amazing music. Their soundtracks are insane!

 

[Mozza]

Nintendo's historic problem has been getting people to upgrade systems when they're entirely satisfied with the current one.

A power upgrade for those who don't care about power, isn't the selling point you think it is.

Nintendo's problem is people are completely happy with Mario Kart 8 and Mario Kart 9 isn't going to be an easy sell.

People think the Wii U was an obvious failure, but it had the games that sold well on the Wii.

The Wii launched for 249.99 and the Wii U launched for only 299.99. The Wii U even was compatible with the Wiimotes.

Well if you look at it historically, Nintendo have had an issue since the SNES, as when Sony entered the console space Nintendo's console sales nosedived. And the release of the Gamecube showed Nintendo two things, one, they could simple not compete in the core power race, and two, it was not even a viable space for them as there were now two very strong competitors in Sony and Microsoft, but the problem was not so much Nintendo as competition. Fighting for a share of around 180 million consoles, was simply not viable, but even though the Wii U and 3DS was not the success of the previous generation, Nintendo still manages to shift around 90 million consoles, which I feel was way more than if they had competed in the core space, with Sony and Microsoft.

Nintendo's hand was pretty much forced with the Wii and DS, they developed two consoles that did not opt for power, they were chasing a wider audience with two pieces of emerging technology, touch and motion controls, and of course hit the age old "lightning in a bottle" generation and did very well out of it. Problem is they simply did not understand the mass majority of these customers, not their fault totally, as they had never sold anything to them before. And as I said in a previous post, most of those customers had simply moved on to other things. The Wii U was a disaster, Nintendo did not promote the machine at all, they just expected Wii owners to rush out and upgrade to the new console. The 3DS stumbled out of the gate, and needed a price reduction, and the release of Mario 3D world and Mario Kart 7. to gain some traction, but fell miles short of the DS milestone.

As I said the Switch is a totally different kettle of fish, the console has been in demand ever since launch, Nintendo marketed the thing right from the start, and had created a very strong brand with the Switch, there is no sharp drop off in sales like with the Wii, and the console is still selling very well, and more importantly, still shifting lots of software, which is amazing so late into it's lifecycle. The DS sold 154 million consoles and 948 million pieces of software, the Switch has sold 132 million consoles and 1.3 billion pieces of software up to now. Every way you look at the Switch's figures, and it's continuing sales and success, points to it's successor also being a hit, and that's before we get to any price being touted at the moment, as pure speculation.

So when you and others state it's an historic problem for Nintendo, there is little or no context or nuance to that statement, as the current Switch scenario is totally different to those previous situations. And I think is based on your own personal feelings, and the core minority's wants and expectations of what Nintendo should do next. I also feel there is an element that would like to seen Nintendo struggle with their next console, as they do not like the fact Nintendo have done so well, with what they see as a underpowered overpriced console.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Well if you look at it historically, Nintendo have had an issue since the SNES, as when Sony entered the console space Nintendo's console sales nosedived. And the release of the Gamecube showed Nintendo two things, one, they could simple not compete in the core power race, and two, it was not even a viable space for them as there were now two very strong competitors in Sony and Microsoft, but the problem was not so much Nintendo as competition.

Nintendo's hand was pretty much forced with the Wii and DS, they developed two consoles that did not opt for power, they were chasing a wider audience with two pieces of emerging technology, touch and motion controls, and of course hit the age old "lightning in a bottle" generation and did very well out of it. Problem is they simply did not understand the mass majority of these customers, not their fault totally, as they had never sold anything to them before. And as I said in a previous post, most of those customers had simply moved on to other things. The Wii U was a disaster, Nintendo did not promote the machine at all, they just expected Wii owners to rush out and upgrade to the new console. The 3DS stumbled out of the gate, and needed a price reduction, and the release of Mario 3D world and Mario Kart 7. to gain some traction, but fell miles short of the DS milestone.

As I said the Switch is a totally different kettle of fish, the console has been in demand ever since launch, Nintendo marketed the thing right from the start, and had created a very strong brand with the Switch, there is no sharp drop off in sales like with the Wii, and the console is still selling very well, and more importantly, still shifting lots of software, which is amazing so late into it's lifecycle. The DS sold 154 million consoles and 948 million pieces of software, the Switch has sold 132 million consoles and 1.3 billion pieces of software up to now. Every way you look at the Switch's figures, and it's continuing sales and success, points to it's successor also being a hit, and that's before we get to any price being touted at the moment, as pure speculation.

So when you and others state it's an historic problem for Nintendo, there is little or no context or nuance to that statement, as the current Switch scenario is totally different to those previous situations. And I think is based on your own personal feelings, and the core minority's wants and expectations of what Nintendo should do next. I also feel there is an element that would like to seen Nintendo struggle with their next console, as they do not like the fact Nintendo have done so well, with what they see as a underpowered overpriced console.

You recognize that for one reason or another Wii U and 3DS had problems even though Wii and 2DS did not, but ignore the fact that the same problems could easily impact a follow-up to the switch.

Everything you've pointed out as positives for the Switch was true of the DS and Wii.

 

[Mozza]

If you feel that, you did not read and digest my post properly.

 

[Banjo64]

For most of us here in GAF? I agree, but I know some friends and even my wife that use it as primary gaming device. They don't care about any other console, all their first parties, indies and specially chill/farming/rpg games are on it, there are also large communities based on those types of games, Just Dance is BIG and will never die it seems, etc. There's just so much from the Switch for many audiences outside GAF average user. I have a PC for everything but Nintendo games so I don't get the appeal at that level but yeah, that's my experience so far... Switch is the "de-facto" console for lots of people and they don't even care about PC, PS5 or Xbox at all... And I'm talking about communities with Youtubers that amass 100k+ subs

It’s my only console as well. Don’t miss my Xbox are PS in the slightest. There’s plenty of high quality third party games on the Switch that eclipse Xbox and PS first party.

 

[Banjo64]

Shield and Sword are so shit to be that high god have mercy.

Emerald deserves to be top of the list.

 

[Celine]

The question isn't is the Switch more profitable than the Wii and the DS. The question is whether the Switch is more profitable than the successful handheld and consoles that Nintendo could have today.

That's a silly question.
Switch (hybrid concept) has succesfully render obsolete the separation between stationary console and portable console in the eyes of consumers (as a hint: the cheaper Lite model represent only 16.5% of the total Switch sales as September 2023 and the percentage is dwindling over time).
There is absolutely nothing preventing Nintendo from running two parallel lines of consoles like it happened in the past however the second line to put beside the hybrid line needs to have an innovative new use case not possible with the hybrid line that justify its existence (this is the complex part for Nintendo).

 

[Woopah]

One thing I wish I could get people to understand better is opportunity costs.


It's not a question of whether they're more profitable today than they were then. There are a lot of factors that go into profitability. Games are more expensive today so they generate more revenue. Gaming is also a much bigger business today, so more games are selling overall.

The question isn't is the Switch more profitable than the Wii and the DS. The question is whether the Switch is more profitable than the successful handheld and consoles that Nintendo could have today.

Before the release of the new system, Nintendo needs to take a very close look at the decline of the Xbox and ask themselves whether they want to take a shot at drastically increasing their revenues by having a console that competes directly with Sony and having a handheld that they sell separately.

I think they can even do a similar model to what they're doing with the Switch Lite if they don' want to divide their resources.

The biggest question is what allows you to sell as much software as possible and have the highest margin on individual hardware and creates the most royalties from 3rd party sales and MTX.

I would say dividing their resources is a no go. As you pointed out, Nintendo has really struggled to convince consumers to upgrade in the past, and this is largely because they were unable to provide enough enticing software.

Having the first party and third party resources split across two ecosystems would lead to the same result. The best way to get people to upgrade to the next system is to offer a single ecosystem for first and third party resources to focus on.

Right now Nintendo competes with the PS5 by having two models that people can use to play games on the TV. These consoles offer flexibility in the way people play, but the opportunity cost of that is that they are not powerful enough to get better third party support.

So then the question becomes, does the flexibility of Switch and Switch OLED offer enough value to customers to offset the lack if these third party games.

I would agree with you that there was an opportunity cost on this for Switch. But as games become more and more scaleable, the opportunity cost decreases.

With Switch 2, Nintendo will aim to offer a flexible console that also receives significant third party support. I think this is perfectly possible, and so the opportunity cost of not having a TV only console will not be that much

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I would say dividing their resources is a no go. As you pointed out, Nintendo has really struggled to convince consumers to upgrade in the past, and this is largely because they were unable to provide enough enticing software.

Having the first party and third party resources split across two ecosystems would lead to the same result. The best way to get people to upgrade to the next system is to offer a single ecosystem for first and third party resources to focus on.

Right now Nintendo competes with the PS5 by having two models that people can use to play games on the TV. These consoles offer flexibility in the way people play, but the opportunity cost of that is that they are not powerful enough to get better third party support.

So then the question becomes, does the flexibility of Switch and Switch OLED offer enough value to customers to offset the lack if these third party games.

I would agree with you that there was an opportunity cost on this for Switch. But as games become more and more scaleable, the opportunity cost decreases.

With Switch 2, Nintendo will aim to offer a flexible console that also receives significant third party support. I think this is perfectly possible, and so the opportunity cost of not having a TV only console will not be that much

I'd say that the existence of the XSS kind of dispels that.

 

[Woopah]

I'd say that the existence of the XSS kind of dispels that.

In what way? I'm not sure which part of what I wrote is dispelled.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

In what way? I'm not sure which part of what I wrote is dispelled.

The scalability of games now allows you to make a version of the game on a handheld and scale it up to a home console, so you don't have to make two different games.

You could put out a handheld switch successor and a console successor and have them play the same games.

 

[Woopah]

The scalability of games now allows you to make a version of the game on a handheld and scale it up to a home console, so you don't have to make two different games.

You could put out a handheld switch successor and a console successor and have them play the same games.

That's my whole point. Nintendo can put out a handheld Switch Lite successor and a hybrid Switch successor and they'll play the same games. Therefore minimal opportunity cost from not having a TV only console, since the hybrid successor will already play games on the TV.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

That's my whole point. Nintendo can put out a handheld Switch Lite successor and a hybrid Switch successor and they'll play the same games. Therefore minimal opportunity cost from not having a TV only console, since the hybrid successor will already play games on the TV.

Not much reason for the next console to be a hybrid given that being a hybrid holds it back in so many ways.

 

[Woopah]

Not much reason for the next console to be a hybrid given that being a hybrid holds it back in so many ways.

Well if its getting very good third party support, the hybrid factor isn't holding it back much.

The main reason for making it hybrid is that the majority of Switch users use it as a hybrid, and you want those people to upgrade. It also gives people another reason to choose a Switch 2 over a PS5, since PS5 doesn't offer the full hybrid experience.

 

[Astral Dog]

Not much reason for the next console to be a hybrid given that being a hybrid holds it back in so many ways.

The main reason the Switch is so successful is because its an hybrid, the thing is barely more powerful than a Wii U

Its the appeal of the console ,something only Nintendo could do back then it makes sense to continue despite the risk of not matching PlayStation and Xbox in raw power( wich has been a thing since the GameCube failed)

 

[Mibu no ookami]

The main reason the Switch is so successful is because its an hybrid, the thing is barely more powerful than a Wii U

Its the appeal of the console ,something only Nintendo could do back then it makes sense to continue despite the risk of not matching PlayStation and Xbox in raw power( wich has been a thing since the GameCube failed)

It’s a success because it’s hybrid?

What are you basing that on?

 

[Astral Dog]

It’s a success because it’s hybrid?

What are you basing that on?

The sales of both Switch and Wii U(and i guess GC and N64)

Nintendo needed a new 'gimmick' but they also have been looking into combining their handheld and console lineup,they came up with the Switch as a new concept

It could have sold less than 3ds, it could have sold like Wii U(well i don't believe it would have been that bad) instead it was a success out of the gate

It was a big hit with third parties as well, gamers wanted to play portable games on Switch but they also play on TV

 

[Mibu no ookami]

The sales of both Switch and Wii U(and i guess GC and N64)

Nintendo needed a new 'gimmick' but they also have been looking into combining their handheld and console lineup,they came up with the Switch as a new concept

It could have sold less than 3ds, it could have sold like Wii U(well i don't believe it would have been that bad) instead it was a success out of the gate

It was a big hit with third parties as well, gamers wanted to play portable games on Switch but they also play on TV

To say that it sold as well as it did BECAUSE it is a hybrid I just feel like is a bit disengious. Most people I know don't even use it as a handheld. Anecdotal of course.

Then you're combining the hybrid numbers with the pure handheld in order to get to that number, which makes the argument pretty specious.

And my point is just because it was a success for its time and position doesn't mean it will continue to be a success moving forward as a model.

Being a hybrid means you're not the best handheld you can be and you're not the best console you can be. We're going to have to see how powerful the switch 2 actually is and how that impacts battery life and price.

Would they release a switch 2 lite from the get go or will they look to have people double dip again?

 

[Tams]

Not much reason for the next console to be a hybrid given that being a hybrid holds it back in so many ways.

The Switch being a hybrid is one of Nintendo's niches and unique selling points. The other being high quality, fun, family friendly games (that don't push microtransactions).

On one hand they have smartphones in the mobile market to compete with, and in the other the 'powerful' home consoles in the home market. Both have very entrenched and established companies in them that have lots of money to throw around.

Sure, there probably is room for more competitors in both markets, but why risk that when you're the only good game in town when it comes to straddling the two?

Before, Nintendo had to have a mobile device and a home device as the technology just wasn't good enough to have a hybrid. It really stretched their game developers though. It wasn't until 2015 with the Nvidia Tegra X1 that mobile SoCs became good enough to be used for home consoles.

The biggest selling points of consoles to developers is standardisation. They know what each and every owner will have. Now that Nintendo only have one console; it gives developers a larger potential market.

 

[Astral Dog]

To say that it sold as well as it did BECAUSE it is a hybrid I just feel like is a bit disengious. Most people I know don't even use it as a handheld. Anecdotal of course.

Then you're combining the hybrid numbers with the pure handheld in order to get to that number, which makes the argument pretty specious.

And my point is just because it was a success for its time and position doesn't mean it will continue to be a success moving forward as a model.

Being a hybrid means you're not the best handheld you can be and you're not the best console you can be. We're going to have to see how powerful the switch 2 actually is and how that impacts battery life and price.

Would they release a switch 2 lite from the get go or will they look to have people double dip again?

Well, traditional handhelds were on decline with the 3DS and Vita , if you remember all the doom threads claiming smartphones would replace them

Then Nintendo's home console market was in an awful place as well with Wii U

The Switch proved them wrong ,obviously strong software played a big part as well but people were interested in the concept ,it was only on gamer forums people were claiming the Switch would fail

 

[Mozza]

Well, traditional handhelds were on decline with the 3DS and Vita , if you remember all the doom threads claiming smartphones would replace them

Then Nintendo's home console market was in an awful place as well with Wii U

The Switch proved them wrong ,obviously strong software played a big part as well but people were interested in the concept ,it was only on gamer forums people were claiming the Switch would fail

Mainly people on here.

 

[Tams]

Mainly people on here.

The Switch launch thread is a glorious hall of shame and crow eating.

 

[Mozza]

The Switch launch thread is a glorious hall of shame and crow eating.

I think crow almost became an endangered species, because of that thread on here.