Another thought I had is that going off of shipment numbers and potential first year sales, Sony could really build a sizable advantage. Do you think if the sales split is 12-15 million Ps5s sold vs 6-7 Xbox’s sold that Microsoft would ignore the Ps5 sales and limit their zenimax games to the smallWe installed base? What if by 2021 were looking at 20 million Ps5s to Xbox 8-10 million? Would share holders even allow the Xbox division to ignore PlayStation at that point? Who knows.
Final thought is this, we dont know if Microsoft is really going to keep these Bethesda games off Ps5, especially if Ps5s installed base is too big too ignore. That’s an unknown. I would assume, and this is an assumption on my part, but there’s no way Sony doesn’t make some big moves of their own. We’ll have to see what happens.
lets do some simplified math together:
fallout 4 had around 8mil sales total at its launch period. PC sales account to ~2/5
now, ps4-xbox initial split was 58-42 at first, while consoles sold were 36m-18m, so with 200% more ps4s consoles sold compared to xboxes.
that means that in the period that there where 36m-40m ps4s sold, fallout sales where 3million or less. so definitely less than 10% of total ps users.
lets take your best case scenario, when next bethesda game launches there will be 12-15 mill ps5s sold.
that would mean less than 1-1.5m sales, which in dollars means up to ~$70 to ~$100mil.
Why on earth would you gimp a $7.5billlion investement on the first release to grab at best case scenario ~$100mil?