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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
Having it day one on gamepass is a pretty big value.
You don't see how bringing Activision's back catalog and bringing all their new releases day 1 to their primary sub service adds value to the average xbox owner ?
It's really simple, it means that the games will be on Gamepass day one.
I really dont understand how many times I have to repeat the same thing. You dont NEED to spend almost a $100 BILLION to get content on gamepass day one. The entire point of gamepass is that the consistent monthly subs revenue allows them to fund content on a monthly basis. If they have 25 million monthly subs, thats $250 million a month. $3 billion a year. If Guardians costs $5 million then COD shouldnt cost more than $250 million. Even if it does, it's not like they had any CoD level games this year.

You should not have to buy entire publishers to get day one Gamepass titles. They didnt have to buy Sony to get MLB The SHow on gamepass day one, did they? Or Square Enix for Outriders? Or Team Ninja for Wu Long? Osobo for Plague's Tale?

If you do then its a failed model. CoD is just one game. All Activision studios literally just make one game a year. So you spent $75 billion on one game when $250 million wouldve done? Even the Zenimax deal isnt looking too good. No Day One games in 2021. No Day One games in 2022. Just 2 games in 2023. So 2 games in 3 years is worth $8 billion? Why not pay as you go? Which is exactly what Netflix and all the other subscription companies do.

MS allowed themselves to get outbid by Sony on marketing deals preventing gamepass. Why? If they had $85 billion to spend, why couldnt they outbid Sony by a few million on FF16, GhostWire, Deathloop, RE8 etc? Let alone CoD. Especially now that they have this consistent revenue from Gamepass every single month.

Bottomine is that Gamepass was supposed to fund itself. Thats why Phil was able to get Satya onboard. He loves subscriptions. If Satya knew he wouldve had to spend $85 BILLION to have some fucking day one content, he wouldve shut down xbox a long time ago. Imagine if Don Matrick had that kind of money.
 
I really don’t care about the deal because I don’t play any of the games that got affected by either the Zenimax or ActiBlizz deal but;

It would be kinda funny if say Apple would enter the console market, buy Take 2, EA and Ubisoft and say ”look, we’re technically in 5th place” and make all their games exclusive to their ecosystem.

It’s just competition and not being the market leader makes everything viable, right?

Also, any future sony publisher acquisitions. You gain cod as an exclusive, but what if you lose all future square enix or capcom games? It's a very real possibility. Both sides will lose out in the end.
 
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yurinka

Member
Xbox is #5 and PS is #1 according to Papa Satya's list. I wonder how he got to that conclusion.
Saying Xbox is number 5 in the video game industry doesn't show a lot of confidence, lmao.
Natella is right, in gaming revenue for public companies MS is top 4. Adding there private companies maybe there is some other one like Epic (due to Fortnite and specially UE) or Valve (due to Steam) above them.

If you look at it per gaming platform/ecosystem mobile, Steam, Sony and Nintendo are above them (so they would be 5th, or 6th if you count iOS and Android separatedly) in both revenue and users. So as he says depending on how you count it MS is around 4th or 5th.

Like MS, Sony isn't focused on mobile, but instead on the AAA market. When looking at the AAA markets/submarkets Sony is top 1 (or at least nobody else shown better numbers than them on these areas): gaming game sales & revenue by platform, console active userbase, game subs and cloud gaming. So yes, he can say Sony is top 1 in the gaming area (AAA games, or more specifically game subs with AAA games) where MS is focused.

He's thinking big picture. People often forget about Intellivision and Atari.

Seriously though, he's probably breaking it down to just MS as a game publisher, they might be 5th there. Have no idea how the numbers work out from that view.
In the early 80s the gaming market was way smaller than now, and Intellivision and Atari had a tiny portion of the worldwide gaming market. Back then computers were more popular worldwide than consoles and the main gaming market by far were the arcades, whose market share was split between a ton of companies.

Right now the gaming market share is also split between many companies compared to other markets: the gaming market generates around $200B in revenue while the top 1, Tencent, made around $27B (around 13-14% market share) last year and the top 2, Sony, made around $25B (around 12-13% market share) and after them come people like Apple, MS or Google with also around 10%+ market share.

So even in the top in gaming there are many big companies and none of them has a huge market share. The top one, Tentent, has their gaming investments diversified in all gaming areas and aren't the market leader in any of them. Sony is market leader in consoles but their platform has less than half of the market share in consoles, and Sony has a tiny market share of the biggest gaming market: mobile. Gaming market is far from being a monopoly.

Activision Blizzard revenue for the twelve months ending June 30, 2022 was $7.644B (only around 3-4% gaming market share), which means acquiring it will help MS climb some position in the ranking but won't change the market at all. It will remain pretty much the same, a growing market split into different platforms (console, PC, mobile) where all are growing.

This acquisition wouldn't cause a monopoly, wouldn't harm competition or anything like that.
 
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adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
If you do then its a failed model. CoD is just one game. All Activision studios literally just make one game a year. So you spent $75 billion on one game when $250 million wouldve done?

Why do people keep shorthanding the entire deal to just CoD ?

CoD isn't even the most lucrative single aspect of the deal, it's King.

Also, if it were up to me, I would ask MS to keep CoD multi-platform in perpetuity so at least it can stop the juvenile Jim Ryan commentary and we can focus on other things like getting Kotick out.
 
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DeepEnigma

Gold Member
I really dont understand how many times I have to repeat the same thing. You dont NEED to spend almost a $100 BILLION to get content on gamepass day one. The entire point of gamepass is that the consistent monthly subs revenue allows them to fund content on a monthly basis. If they have 25 million monthly subs, thats $250 million a month. $3 billion a year. If Guardians costs $5 million then COD shouldnt cost more than $250 million. Even if it does, it's not like they had any CoD level games this year.

You should not have to buy entire publishers to get day one Gamepass titles. They didnt have to buy Sony to get MLB The SHow on gamepass day one, did they? Or Square Enix for Outriders? Or Team Ninja for Wu Long? Osobo for Plague's Tale?

If you do then its a failed model. CoD is just one game. All Activision studios literally just make one game a year. So you spent $75 billion on one game when $250 million wouldve done? Even the Zenimax deal isnt looking too good. No Day One games in 2021. No Day One games in 2022. Just 2 games in 2023. So 2 games in 3 years is worth $8 billion? Why not pay as you go? Which is exactly what Netflix and all the other subscription companies do.

MS allowed themselves to get outbid by Sony on marketing deals preventing gamepass. Why? If they had $85 billion to spend, why couldnt they outbid Sony by a few million on FF16, GhostWire, Deathloop, RE8 etc? Let alone CoD. Especially now that they have this consistent revenue from Gamepass every single month.

Bottomine is that Gamepass was supposed to fund itself. Thats why Phil was able to get Satya onboard. He loves subscriptions. If Satya knew he wouldve had to spend $85 BILLION to have some fucking day one content, he wouldve shut down xbox a long time ago. Imagine if Don Matrick had that kind of money.
What if I told you it's not about those marketing deals or timed exclusives, those are just excuses the narrow minded warriors latch onto. Especially since they have their owned timed exclusives and marketing at the same till this day.

It's about cornering the market and a race to bottom with subscriptions for everything model MS has been focusing on the past 5-10 years. Windows 10/11 for example. Office doesn't pop up every other week asking you to BUY it (like it did pre-sub), it pops up every other week asking you to SUBSCRIBE to it. Yes you can buy it, but that's not their focus they push onto you with those curated notifications now, they want you in a sub loop.

And sub loops may be fine for a lot of people, it's their purchasing power and business to do so. But lets not pretend this is for any other reason outside of cornering the market with their sub model, and that sweet mobile revenue. That's their entire business model from cloud (Azure) to productivity, to gaming.
 
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Dane

Member
I really dont understand how many times I have to repeat the same thing. You dont NEED to spend almost a $100 BILLION to get content on gamepass day one. The entire point of gamepass is that the consistent monthly subs revenue allows them to fund content on a monthly basis. If they have 25 million monthly subs, thats $250 million a month. $3 billion a year. If Guardians costs $5 million then COD shouldnt cost more than $250 million. Even if it does, it's not like they had any CoD level games this year.

You should not have to buy entire publishers to get day one Gamepass titles. They didnt have to buy Sony to get MLB The SHow on gamepass day one, did they? Or Square Enix for Outriders? Or Team Ninja for Wu Long? Osobo for Plague's Tale?

If you do then its a failed model. CoD is just one game. All Activision studios literally just make one game a year. So you spent $75 billion on one game when $250 million wouldve done? Even the Zenimax deal isnt looking too good. No Day One games in 2021. No Day One games in 2022. Just 2 games in 2023. So 2 games in 3 years is worth $8 billion? Why not pay as you go? Which is exactly what Netflix and all the other subscription companies do.

MS allowed themselves to get outbid by Sony on marketing deals preventing gamepass. Why? If they had $85 billion to spend, why couldnt they outbid Sony by a few million on FF16, GhostWire, Deathloop, RE8 etc? Let alone CoD. Especially now that they have this consistent revenue from Gamepass every single month.

Bottomine is that Gamepass was supposed to fund itself. Thats why Phil was able to get Satya onboard. He loves subscriptions. If Satya knew he wouldve had to spend $85 BILLION to have some fucking day one content, he wouldve shut down xbox a long time ago. Imagine if Don Matrick had that kind of money.
Because all the ABK revenue goes now to Microsoft, is that hard to understand? Their GaaS makes billions per year.
 

reksveks

Member
What if I told you it's not about those marketing deals or timed exclusives, those are just excuses the narrow minded warriors latch onto. Especially since they have their owned timed exclusives and marketing at the same till this day.

It's about cornering the market and a race to bottom with subscriptions for everything model MS has been focusing on the past 5-10 years. Windows 10/11 for example. Office doesn't pop up every other week asking you to BUY it (like it did pre-sub), it pops up every other week asking you to SUBSCRIBE to it. Yes you can buy it, but that's not their focus they push onto you with those curated notifications now, they want you in a sub loop.
Office 365 for home users is kinda different than Office 365 for business in terms of strategy, there is a much more aggressive upsell in the ecosystem for business.

"Oh you are using office 365, why don't you use the user management profiles/Azure AD that you already have and pair it with PowerBi for XXX per user or PowerAutomate etc".

You don't that as much in the Office 365 for Home.
 

DaGwaphics

Member
In the early 80s the gaming market was way smaller than now, and Intellivision and Atari had a tiny portion of the worldwide gaming market. Back then computers were more popular worldwide than consoles and the main gaming market by far were the arcades, whose market share was split between a ton of companies.

Right now the gaming market share is also split between many companies compared to other markets: the gaming market generates around $200B in revenue while the top 1, Tencent, made around $27B (around 13-14% market share) last year and the top 2, Sony, made around $25B (around 12-13% market share) and after them come people like Apple, MS or Google with also around 10%+ market share.

So even in the top in gaming there are many big companies and none of them has a huge market share. The top one, Tentent, has their gaming investments diversified in all gaming areas and aren't the market leader in any of them. Sony is market leader in consoles but their platform has less than half of the market share in consoles, and Sony has a tiny market share of the biggest gaming market: mobile. Gaming market is far from being a monopoly.

Activision Blizzard revenue for the twelve months ending June 30, 2022 was $7.644B (only around 3-4% gaming market share), which means acquiring it will help MS climb some position in the ranking but won't change the market at all. It will remain pretty much the same, a growing market split into different platforms (console, PC, mobile) where all are growing.

Agreed. At this point, I don't see the industry as being consolidated enough to need to worry about it from a competition stand point. Like you said, no one is even at 20% yet. Far different from something like the mobile network operators or microchip manufacturers and things like that. I fully expect the deal to go through because of that.
 
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DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Office 365 for home users is kinda different than Office 365 for business in terms of strategy, there is a much more aggressive upsell in the ecosystem for business.

"Oh you are using office 365, why don't you use the user management profiles/Azure AD that you already have and pair it with PowerBi for XXX per user or PowerAutomate etc".

You don't that as much in the Office 365 for Home.
My point still stands, as SlimySnake SlimySnake has said, this has nothing to do with "hurr durr, Sony buying timed exclusives and marketing deals," trying to make a 2 trillion dollar company look like a victim, since they are both still doing this.

That's just fanboy noise.
 

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
Why do people keep shorthanding the entire deal to just CoD ?

CoD isn't even the most lucrative single aspect of the deal, it's King.

Also, if it were up to me, I would ask MS to keep CoD multi-platform in perpetuity so at least it can stop the juvenile Jim Ryan commentary and we can focus on other things like getting Kotick out.
Because Kotick on numerous occassions have said that every single activision studio is now working on CoD. Because thats what it takes to get CoD out every year. Thousands of employees. Dozens of studios. Its why we get a CoD game every year while Sony and MS take 5-6 years to release one game per studio.

Because we have seen their output the last few years and this is pretty much the only game they make. Literally the only non COD game they have made in the last five years is Crash 4.

Even if it wasnt one game. You do not have to spend $75 billion for 2,3 or 4 games. Gamepass' monthly revenue should pay for all games without MS even having to dip into the Xbox revenue let alone Microsoft's $150 billion war chest. That is literally the whole point of a subscription service.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Because we have seen their output the last few years and this is pretty much the only game they make. Literally the only non COD game they have made in the last five years is Crash 4.

Diablo IV will be a mega blockbuster. And a new leadership and not being forced to churn out CoD games every year will promote more creative freedom and revive dormant IP and/or allow them to make new IP. That's the biggest benefit to the developers here.


Even if it wasnt one game. You do not have to spend $75 billion for 2,3 or 4 games. Gamepass' monthly revenue should pay for all games without MS even having to dip into the Xbox revenue let alone Microsoft's $150 billion war chest. That is literally the whole point of a subscription service.


 
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SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
Because all the ABK revenue goes now to Microsoft, is that hard to understand? Their GaaS makes billions per year.
So now it's about increasing revenue. I thought it was about gamepass day one titles???

Diablo IV will be a mega blockbuster. And a new leadership and not being forced to churn out CoD games every year will promote more creative freedom and revive dormant IP and/or allow them to make new IP. That's the biggest benefit to the developers here.






This literally disputes your assertion that MS bought Gamepass for Day one titles. My entire point is that you dont have to spend $75 billion to get games on gamepass for your userbase. My entire point is that this acquisition is about something else other than offering Xbox owners more value. If they really wanted to to offer Xbox owners more value, they would take the gamepass dollars Xbox owners are already giving them and invest it into getting CoD on day one instead of going after mobile and PC revenue Xbox owners dont give two shits about.

This acquisition does not help Xbox owners but Microsoft's bottomline.
 
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Topher

Gold Member
Office 365 for home users is kinda different than Office 365 for business in terms of strategy, there is a much more aggressive upsell in the ecosystem for business.

"Oh you are using office 365, why don't you use the user management profiles/Azure AD that you already have and pair it with PowerBi for XXX per user or PowerAutomate etc".

You don't that as much in the Office 365 for Home.

I’m at a Power Apps conference this week. The amount of upsell from MS 365 to Azure and Power apps/automate/BI is crazy.
 

yurinka

Member
Agreed. At this point, I don't see the industry as being consolidated enough to need to worry about it from a competition stand point. Like you said, no one is even at 20% yet. Far different from something like the mobile network operators or microchip manufacturers and things like that. I fully expect the deal to go through because of that.
Consolidation or monopolies would be a problem if a company would have like way over half of the market, or a couple companies controlling like over 80-90% of the market, something like that.

This is the case of a ton of industries even outside tech, and regulators don't give a fuck in many of them.

So I think that regulators won't stop the acquisition or any other that bigger actors like Tencent or Sony could make as long as they don't end getting like beyond a third of the market or something like that, or that would mean that they would get like three quarters of a gaming market like mobile, PC or consoles. We're way far from this.

So now it's about increasing revenue. I thought it was about gamepass day one titles???
In terms of strategy the main reason of MS acquiring ABK is to increase and improve their 1st party IP lineup specially to secure their presence -and day one- on the GP catalog with well known, popular games.

In terms of business/economics in addition to that they'll add on top the MS gaming division ones the ABK revenue and profits helping them to improve in this area helping to partly compensate the drop in revenue and profit caused by the 'AAA games day one on GP' strategy.

That would apply even if not making the purchased IPs exclusive, see Minecraft: like ABK most of their console revenue came from rival consoles, so they kept releasing Minecraft on rival consoles. They could keep releasing -at least some- the Bethesda and ABK games, maybe -at least some- after a timed console exclusive period. That would also help them compensate the lost revenue and profitability caused by the 'AAA games day one on GP' strategy.
 
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khakimzhan

Member
So now it's about increasing revenue. I thought it was about gamepass day one titles???



This literally disputes your assertion that MS bought Gamepass for Day one titles. My entire point is that you dont have to spend $75 billion to get games on gamepass for your userbase. My entire point is that this acquisition is about something else other than offering Xbox owners more value. If they really wanted to to offer Xbox owners more value, they would take the gamepass dollars Xbox owners are already giving them and invest it into getting CoD on day one instead of going after mobile and PC revenue Xbox owners dont give two shits about.

This acquisition does not help Xbox owners but Microsoft's bottomline.

So if you had an opportunity to buy a house with discount (and you had enough money) you would rather rent?
 
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So now it's about increasing revenue. I thought it was about gamepass day one titles???

This literally disputes your assertion that MS bought Gamepass for Day one titles. My entire point is that you dont have to spend $75 billion to get games on gamepass for your userbase. My entire point is that this acquisition is about something else other than offering Xbox owners more value. If they really wanted to to offer Xbox owners more value, they would take the gamepass dollars Xbox owners are already giving them and invest it into getting CoD on day one instead of going after mobile and PC revenue Xbox owners dont give two shits about.

This acquisition does not help Xbox owners but Microsoft's bottomline.
If we are to believe the CEO of Microsoft gaming, the initial reason why they went after ABK is because of K and them being a mobile giant. Everything else is just a bonus.

The acquisition helps me as an Xbox owner because I get all the ABK games day one on Gamepass 🤷‍♂️ And no, this wouldn't be possible without the acqusition. MS is not willing to burn that much money.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
This literally disputes your assertion that MS bought Gamepass for Day one titles. My entire point is that you dont have to spend $75 billion to get games on gamepass for your userbase. My entire point is that this acquisition is about something else other than offering Xbox owners more value.

If that is your entire point then sadly it's still not fully right.

You asked earlier about the value for an average xbox owner from this deal, the promise of a big Acti catalog and all future games releasing day 1 on game pass *is* the value for the average Xbox owner.

MS's reasons to make the deal are primarily focused on getting a foothold into the ultra profitable mobile gaming market.

Those two things don't have to be mutually exclusive to be relevant.
 

reksveks

Member
I’m at a Power Apps conference this week. The amount of upsell from MS 365 to Azure and Power apps/automate/BI is crazy.
Yeah, that sounds about right.
A nice little table.

PfQqrFY.png


Activision/COD is slightly deflated cause of the poor Vanguard performance.
 
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SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
If that is your entire point then sadly it's still not fully right.

You asked earlier about the value for an average xbox owner from this deal, the promise of a big Acti catalog and all future games releasing day 1 on game pass *is* the value for the average Xbox owner.

MS's reasons to make the deal are primarily focused on getting a foothold into the ultra profitable mobile gaming market.

Those two things don't have to be mutually exclusive to be relevant.
Again, in my original post, I pointed out that there are plenty of other games day one on gamepass that did not need to be bought out by Microsoft. This is NOT about offering Xbox owners day one gamepass games. This is not about offering legacy Activision titles. Sony and MS have been offering legacy Activision, Ubisoft, EA, and Square enix titles for almost a decade now with their PS+ $5 a month service. They didnt need to buy SE, EA and Activision. How much is Diablo 4 supposed to sell on Xbox? 2 million? 5 million? Thats $300 million. A little over a months gamepass revenue that could go towards paying that off.

This deal as MS themselves put it, is about mobile, PC, and generating extra revenue. And above all, getting CoD exclusive to pressure Sony into getting gamepass or making sony bow out. Thats it. It's a business first move. And while there is nothing wrong with that, I am not going to sit here and be told that hey this is about gamepass day one titles. No, it's not. If MS wanted more AAA gamepass content, they wouldve paid up for it instead of watching Sony secure Death Stranding, Final Fantasy 7, Shenmue, Deathloop, Ghostwire, FF16, Forspoken and many more third party games MS simply allowed to go exclusive when all they had to do was go in and outbid sony. There is no way Sony paid anywhere close to even a billion for all those games. And if MS can spend $83 billion on Activision and Zenimax then if they really cared about the xbox users, they wouldve made sure those games were on Xbox on day one. Some of those games will never come to Xbox. How is that even possible?

For $83 billion, they couldve transformed the gaming industry. Crystal Dynamics and Eidos Montreal went for $300 million. Respawn $300 million. Insomniac $220 million. From is only $800 million. Studios come cheap. Talent is what MS should be focusing on. Getting people out of hollywood. Getting more kids interested in game development. Offering scholarships. Creating a studio in every major city. Gaming is facing a dearth of games like never before. No one is suffering more than Xbox owners. At least Nintendo and Sony are still making last gen exclusives for their userbase. Xbox owners just went 2 out of the last 3 years without any exclusives. Spend a fraction of the $83 billion on reinvigorating the gaming industry instead of buying up massive conglomerates.

I said in my first post in this thread, but I was glad to see MS spend this much money because it showed me that they are in it for good. But this is not the best way to spend money or grow this business. Especially not when you have $83 billion to spend.
 

DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
yeah xbox does it to, that's not the problem. the problem is when Sony complains about it and does it to. remember them paying to keep tomb raider 2 off the Saturn completely?

all this with COD isn't for protecting the gamers its to protect their revenue. after all we don't see Nintendo complaining about this do we?
Wasn't Phil the one trying to fight for "gamers" when he was pushing for crossplay?

So in reality, Phil wasn't fighting for gamers, just anything that would benefit Microsoft. If Xbox fans are going to call out Sony for being hypocrites, then they should have no problem calling out Microsoft, too.. But I know that's not going to happen.
 

Godot25

Banned
Because it is an important view for regulators to see that the deal only makes sense in a scenario where Microsoft extinguishes all competitors by methods beyond the "fair market competition" that regulators are charged with defending.

If Microsoft claim they are buying it to be competitive inside the established games industry then the numbers need to corroborate that, no? Otherwise they are at risk of being accused of misleading regulators. But as the numbers don't support that "competition" scenario Microsoft's MO is exposed IMO.
Ehh. No?

Because this deal is nowhere near close to "Microsoft extinguishing competition."
If you are implying that Xbox division somehow can't use corporate money from other divisions to make this purchase you are probably wrong.

It's also funny that entire conversation about this acquisition is concerning Call of Duty. While COD is important I think that Microsoft was mainly interested in ActiBlizz because of Blizzard and King. Because those two entities are allowing them to penetrante PC market and mobile market where they were not very successful. Also Blizzard being popular in Asia is another benefit.
 

phil_t98

#SonyToo
Wasn't Phil the one trying to fight for "gamers" when he was pushing for crossplay?

So in reality, Phil wasn't fighting for gamers, just anything that would benefit Microsoft. If Xbox fans are going to call out Sony for being hypocrites, then they should have no problem calling out Microsoft, too.. But I know that's not going to happen.


yeah microsoft got wise to how Sony play so they just played them at their own game and Sony is upset about it because Microsoft has more moeny to spend. simple as that
 

JLB

Banned

ChiefDada

Gold Member
All of this just to tell me you don't pay attention to news outside of gaming/console war news.

Lol, no. My profession requires me to keep up with all of this.

Rising interest rates means it's more expensive just for businesses, especially big ones, to do business. They all borrow money to run their businesses. It's how a lot of companies operate. Activision isn't immune, Microsoft isn't immune, Sony isn't immune, many businesses in the UK who also do business in the United States aren't immune while also having their own domestic issues to deal with.

No, it is literally the opposite. While rising interest rates results in more expensive liquidity for all companies who need/choose to debt financing, the largest and most fundamentally sound companies (think blue chip, and Microsoft is the most blueish of blue chip) are the most insulated against interest rate hikes as they will be granted the most favorable borrowing terms. More importantly, Microsoft is not financing the deal with debt; it is an all cash deal with no related borrowings so rising interest rates has no impact on the cost of the acquisition.

Also no, not every company borrows money to finance operations, many businesses can and do run on 100% equity.

You would like to believe that only the things regulators or Sony are saying in their public statements about this are what's really at issue in determining whether or not this deal gets approved or not, but it has never been that from the very start. Microsoft chose to make the move on Activision Blizzard when they did because they're fully aware of the fact that various macroeconomic factors would be not just be in their favor domestically, but that they would be in their favor globally also as they try to close the deal. This is likely the ONLY climate in which Microsoft could successfully get Activision Blizzard in a fashion that will be a whole lot easier than it might have been under different circumstances.

This is pure conspiracy theory bullshit. The idea that regulators will allow/block the deal based on current macroeconomic events as opposed to whether or not it violates antitrust regulations is dumb. Sorry if this sounds harsh but there isn't a nicer way to communicate this.


Btw, should you choose to respond with claims of me coming from a "Sony fanboy/console warrior" perspective, you should know that I fully support the deal in principle and legality. But for you and many others here saying that the deal is a slam dunk or that claims of antitrust concerns are meritless, these sorts of comments are fraught with ignorance.


Speaking as a PS only gamer, I think it will go through, and more importantly, it should go through. The gaming industry is, for the most part, uber competitive. Consumers will ultimately abandon a franchise if their demands aren't met, regardless of how awesome a track record the franchise might have developed in the past. Developer talent is also difficult to retain and they will leave for other opportunities if their needs aren't met. You don't have to look far to see examples of this (see Halo). Hell, it's even evident to a certain degree already with the CoD franchise.

I also don't blame Jim Ryan. As head of SIE, he is simply doing his job. When the status quo that has benefited your company is threatened, if you're not bitching and moaning in hopes of regulators miraculously agreeing with you, you're not doing your job right, imo.

Yes, this is the vertical integration argument that potentially breaks antitrust laws. I personally believe the deal should go through because of my personal opinion on how free markets should work, and how competitive I view the gaming industry. But that doesn't prevent me from realizing that if there were ever a case in console gaming industry to appropriately invoke antitrust, it is this for many reasons.
 

DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
yeah microsoft got wise to how Sony play so they just played them at their own game and Sony is upset about it because Microsoft has more moeny to spend. simple as that
"Their own game"

Do you mean a game that has been around even before Sony? You just admitted that MS has been guilty of doing the same thing.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
yeah microsoft got wise to how Sony play so they just played them at their own game and Sony is upset about it because Microsoft has more moeny to spend. simple as that
No these fanboy scripted responses are not the reason, so retarded. Keep drinking the twittardverse/discords Kool Aide and doublespeak posturing from these execs.

It's about both. Loading up Game Pass to corner the market, and costs can be offset from all the KING gambling revenue so you won't show to be in the negative to investors. ;)
This is the reason.
 
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Three

Member
I fear that very thing, what will this lead to once this deal goes through (though I want to replay most of the past CODs via Gamepass) ;)

I said it on another post but for those of us who has been here awhile do you remember when those several few people kept saying once MS decides to tap into their warchest it would get ugly?

People laughed at them saying MS wouldn't just write massive checks for Xbox

Now people are saying its not fair MS has said warchest

Who Knows Idk GIF
True, but equally I remember people saying Sony can't compete with MS when it comes to that but now they are acting like they are a tiny company in 5th place when the competition authority raises some concern over it.

PeskyBruisedGelada-max-1mb.gif


Welcome to narratives I guess.
 

Ozriel

M$FT
So out of my post you get:
- that I hate GamePass
- I prefer to buy games full priced

Literally none of that is true. Go check my post history so not entirely sure where in gods green earth you get any of what I mentioned from my initial post.

Let me spell it out if you didn't understand. MS getting some sort of a monopoly in the gaming space is bad news for everyone. Them buying up publishers like Activision is a stepping stone to that. They've already stated that they will not be stopping there and more acquisitions are on the way.
Sony and Nintendo don't have the purchasing power that MS possesses. Even if you combine all that Sony and Nintendo has acquired over the years, its not anywhere near this monumental Activision deal.

I'll take timed exclusives (not a big fan of it) over outright purchases if I was given a choice. Depending on the deal struck, it still gives a chance to release a game on other platforms. Outright buying publishers and that game is going full exclusive and will never see another platform.

At the end of the day its going to come down to a case of who has the deepest pockets and we all know the answer to that. Deeper pockets to buy up everything and in the end there will be no competition. No competition is bordering on a monopoly. And trust me you don't want a monopoly.

Is Microsoft building a gaming monopoly?

This is such a weird argument. Microsoft is nowhere close to console leadership, let alone ‘monopoly’. The Activision acquisition will only be approved with guarantees of Call of Duty being multiplatform until at least 2027. Likely longer. Where then is the scope for ‘monopoly’?

Making reference to ‘purchasing power’ as a pointer to monopoly is also weird. The hugely expensive publishers that remain are the likes of EA and Take Two. And the scrutiny around the activision deal should tell you that nobody’s going to be able to buy these publishers without a commitment to keeping EA Football and GTA multiplatform.

The smaller players with major IP and brand appeal like Capcom, Square Enix etc have price tags well within Sony’s purchasing power, and in fact we’ve seen a LOT of folks who complain about the ABK deal breathlessly exhort Sony to buy most of the big Japanese publishers.

I do think people resort to needless scaremongering when it comes to Microsoft. Case in point you citing MS statement that they’ll acquire more in the future as evidence of monopolist intent, while neglecting to mention that Sony leadership has expressed the very same sentiment multiple times in recent years.
 
Diablo, Overwatch and most other Activision franchises are on Switch, and with a new, more powerful Switch successor on the way, it’s very likely that support will increase.
But putting Nintendo aside, Google, Amazon and NVIDiA have cloud streaming services. And yet none of them have filed any complaints about an ABK purchase blocking competition in the cloud streaming space.

Again, this is whataboutism: why do these other companies need to file complaints in order to bring validity to Sony's claims? This is very "everyone jumps off the bridge" mentality here.

Google, Amazon, and Nvidia are not console platform holders. They do not have a vested relationship with ABK that is anywhere near as financially lucrative for them as ABK's is with Sony. Bringing Nintendo into this also doesn't work; those games you mention collectively pull nowhere near the revenue that COD does, and COD happens to be one of THE big ABK IPs (alongside Candy Crush) that are not on Nintendo platforms.

Because it is an important view for regulators to see that the deal only makes sense in a scenario where Microsoft extinguishes all competitors by methods beyond the "fair market competition" that regulators are charged with defending.

If Microsoft claim they are buying it to be competitive inside the established games industry then the numbers need to corroborate that, no? Otherwise they are at risk of being accused of misleading regulators. But as the numbers don't support that "competition" scenario Microsoft's MO is exposed IMO.

I don't think Godot also realizes that they are inadvertently hurting the argument that MS isn't leveraging division revenues outside of gaming to sustain the GamePass strategy. Which ironically, is one of the potential concerns when it comes to claims of anti-competitive practices. We already know that the Xbox division could have never made the ABK deal on its own accord; that took all of Microsoft's other division to come through and cover the costs of the buy and whatever else comes with it.

Which in itself isn't the big concern. However, if Satya Nadella is now out here saying they're making these acquisitions to "compete" with Sony...he has just kneecapped their own future acquisition potential! With both Zenimax and ABK revenue streams added to Xbox's, that puts them within spitting distance of PlayStation's usual annual revenue. That is now them being "competitive" with Sony in revenue. Even if Sony were to acquire Square-Enix, Capcom, Sega or another publisher of that type of size, it wouldn't be enough in terms of increasing PlayStation's revenue to where MS would have a good reason to buy another publisher.

I mean think about it. If MS already have Zenimax, already have ABK...why would they also need EA, or Take Two, or Embracer Group, to "compete" with Sony? At that point it is no longer about "competition", it's effectively them trying to starve Sony out of the console market as a platform holder. It would be a modern implementation of that "Embrace, Extend, Extinguish" policy that has been with MS since the 1980s. That's IF Microsoft go for other big publishers because, by Satay's own words, apparently these acquisitions have been about competition with Sony.

It's kind of hilarious that Satya has put a cap on MS's own further acquisition attempts via a public statement that can be used in the court of law, but ultimately if their major gaming acquisitions, at least for the next few years, stops at ABK, I think that's the right call. Expanding just for the sake of expanding, just because you can do something, doesn't mean you should. MS need to make sure their current acquisitions are able to prove their worth and put out some strong results, consistently, and at least some of them reaching new heights in what they're able to do (especially the ones that need it the most).

IMHO, they are set studio-wise for the next five years, at the very least. They have no further reason to buy further publishers or even developers. The only potential exception would be Asobo, but that depends on if Asobo are interested in wanting to sell. Otherwise, almost any other developer that MS could try wanting to buy, and certainly any other publisher, could easily be called for what it is: an act of aggression towards Sony (and other platform holders i.e Nintendo), with provable anti-competitive leanings. Which I'm sure is something MS would want to avoid getting tangled up with legally; after all if/when the ABK deal is approved that is going to open a lot of easy opportunities for Apple, Google, Amazon etc. to try buying virtually any other publisher and having almost no pushback because, hey, they can just point to MS buying ABK and ask regulators why they would approve that but not, say, Apple buying EA or Ubisoft.
 

phil_t98

#SonyToo
"Their own game"

Do you mean a game that has been around even before Sony? You just admitted that MS has been guilty of doing the same thing.

Again I will point back to the fact befor this gen started Sony approached all major developers to secure exclusive content. Microsoft just stepping up the game

Also we have Sony paying developers to keep content off gamepass, how consumers friendly is that?
 
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DeepEnigma

Gold Member
So I don’t see you anywhere when Sony buy studios such as Bungie saying how bad it is for gamers and the industry
Studio that will remain independent and third party versus two of the largest (one being the very largest) third party publishers (for decades) in the world that will now be all exclusive.
The Office No GIF

That's expansion for MS, contraction for the overall console market.
 
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DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
Again I will point back to the fact befor this gen started Sony approached all major developers to secure exclusive content. Microsoft just stepping up the game

Also we have Sony paying developers to keep content off gamepass, how consumers friendly is that?
Microsoft did it with Xbox One. They even tried to buy Nintendo.

People try hard to make MS appear innocent.
 
This is such a weird argument. Microsoft is nowhere close to console leadership, let alone ‘monopoly’. The Activision acquisition will only be approved with guarantees of Call of Duty being multiplatform until at least 2027. Likely longer. Where then is the scope for ‘monopoly’?

Making reference to ‘purchasing power’ as a pointer to monopoly is also weird. The hugely expensive publishers that remain are the likes of EA and Take Two. And the scrutiny around the activision deal should tell you that nobody’s going to be able to buy these publishers without a commitment to keeping EA Football and GTA multiplatform.

The smaller players with major IP and brand appeal like Capcom, Square Enix etc have price tags well within Sony’s purchasing power, and in fact we’ve seen a LOT of folks who complain about the ABK deal breathlessly exhort Sony to buy most of the big Japanese publishers.

I do think people resort to needless scaremongering when it comes to Microsoft. Case in point you citing MS statement that they’ll acquire more in the future as evidence of monopolist intent, while neglecting to mention that Sony leadership has expressed the very same sentiment multiple times in recent years.

You have to admit that by Satya's own statements, MS has effectively kneecapped their own acquisition potential for the next several years. With ABK soon under their belt, MS now have 30+ internal development studios, and a combined gaming revenue within spitting distance of PlayStation's. There is your "competition"; they have the revenue and the development resources to theoretically match whatever Sony can provide (both in terms of internal 1P teams and in co-funding/publishing 3P exclusivity deals).

The truth is, MS buying another massive publisher at any point within the next few years, DOES potentially have a case of being called out for anti-competitive/monopolistic practices because by that point they will be buying in abundance of excess. They already have enough IP, developer manpower, developer studios, and gaming revenue streams to compete with Sony and Nintendo...why would they need MORE? I think you guys need to look at Satya's recent comment and realize this is probably him seeing the bigger picture for what I've been describing for a while now.

The growth phase is effectively over. Once MS have ABK, they're good. After that will be the time for them to fully focus on curating the quality of content from these teams they've been buying since 2018, and getting a good string of quality results actually released. MS have to now prove that them buying these teams will lead to an overall benefit, and it will take some years to definitively prove this. Realistically, outside of a studio like maybe Asobo, we aren't going to be talking about MS buying another major publisher or super left-field developer until 2027 at earliest. At which point, we'll be able to tell if their strategy has succeeded, or failed.

And the results of the strategy by that point will absolutely dictate sentiment towards any further big acquisition attempts, as it should. But in either case, it will be a much better look for MS than rushing into yet another notable acquisition right off of ABK.
 

phil_t98

#SonyToo
Studio that will remain independent and third party versus two of the largest (one being the very largest) third party publishers (for decades) in the world that will now be all exclusive.
The Office No GIF

That's expansion for MS, contraction for the overall console market.

Well if you read back on what your fellow PlayStation fans are saying is that Sony controls them and they control the content released. Ask Ass of Can Whooping Ass of Can Whooping
 

ReBurn

Gold Member
Sony bought a no name mobile studio so we have to buy 2 mega publishers and take entire franchises away from their platform to compete 🤡
It's interesting because I got a push notification through the PS app from Sony just yesterday trying to sell me Call of Duty on PS5. Microsoft can't even take franchises away effectively I guess.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Well if you read back on what your fellow PlayStation fans are saying is that Sony controls them and they control the content released. Ask Ass of Can Whooping Ass of Can Whooping
Oh I read your ignorance on the subject in that thread. As of right now, they said they will allow them to operate independently and be third party. They are still one studio out of two of the worlds largest publishers, one being the very largest to play "takeaway" (contraction) from the competition, when it is, and when it's not competition. Depending on the narrative at play.
 

John Wick

Member
So let me get this straight.

Consolidation of the industry is okay, unless you are platform holder. Then it is not okay. Right? Why? Because when Microsoft as a platform holder buys stuff it hurts Sony? That's not an argument that FTC/CMA and other regulatory bodies can use to effectively block the deal.

"Let me know when Embracer releases 127 games in a year or three?" is pretty stupid argument because when Microsoft released AAA first-party game? See? If you claim that Embracer can go on buying spree because they don't have consistent flow of content, I can say exact thing about Microsoft.
Another dishonest take. Embracer can't assume a dominant position as it doesn't own its own platform. It's 3rd party providing content for different platforms like Tencent.
I wasn't the one who mentioned Embracer had a mighty 127 studios. So why aren't Embracer no 1 in revenue and profit according to your corporate colleague and you? What big games does Embracer make equivalent to COD, Diablo, Halo, Forza etc etc?
 

phil_t98

#SonyToo
Oh I read your ignorance on the subject in that thread. As of right now, they said they will allow them to operate independently and be third party. They are still one studio out of two of the worlds largest publishers, one being the very largest to play "takeaway" (contraction) from the competition, when it is, and when it's not competition. Depending on the narrative at play.

but you just said they will remain independent? so as of now? you suggesting that's gonna change
 
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