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Sales-Age Japan Sales week 50: Cyberpunk launch week and Nintendo Switch total domination

Bodomism

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Dear God why is it that no one can say anything slightly negative about Japan or Nintendo? .
Nintendo games always sell well, but long gone are the days when FF would sell over 3 million copies in Japan alone, one look at the Japanese charts show most main games don't even sell past the 300,00 mark and you can top the Japanese charts with less than 80,00 sales in some months. Konami recorded some of their best profits that doesn't mean they're a prolific developer making world class games like they used it. Compared to the 16 bit and 32Bit days Japan and its games market is a shadow of what it used to be.

Capcom are one of the few Japanese corps that can compete with the West for budgets and making world class game engines and AAA games.
If you take a look at NPD, UK, Spain, France, and Germany chart last month, nearly half of the games on the top 10 are japanese games.








 

Woopah

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I'm saying that Nintendo always does well with their Handhelds. We all know Nintendo dropped systems like a stone when their new system comes out (unlike what some say). What big AAA HH games came out for the 3DS after the Switch launched In-House from Nintendo?. To me, the Switch is the successor to the 3DS is all but name.
When the Switch came out Nintendo dropped the Wii U like a stone, but they published 3DS games for another two years. This included bigger budget games like Pokémon and Samus Returns (which had in-house involvement) as well as purely internal titles like Mario Party and the Captain Toad port.

So if Nintendo dropped the Wii U like a rock but didn't drop the 3DS, then by your logic the Switch is the natural successor to the Wii U.

To go back to the original point, yes Nintendo generally does well with its handhelds. That's why the success of the Switch in Japan isn't proof the country has gone handheld only. If the PS5 had Splatoon, Mario Kart 8, Smash Bros, Ring Fit, Pokémon Sword and Shield etc etc then it would be doing very well too.
 
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namekuseijin

Nintendo is for soys and kids. But my tears about them are for men.
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Japan market isn't irrelevant.

To give a perspective of how big the Japanese market vs UK and Germany markets combined for PS4.

Switch Japan sales = 16.7 million units
PS4 UK and Germany sales = 15 million units.

At the end of Switch lifetime sales in Japan, it could potentially reach or outsell PS4 total sales in UK, Germany, France, Spain, and Italy combined.

Japan is very important.

not irrelevant in sales

irrelevant to gaming as Nintendo stopped dictating the way forward in games in the 90s

it's about as much relevant as card gaming: still sells much, but who cares?
 

HeresJohnny

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Japan doesn't give a crap to Sony California offerings
I'm assuming some of it is (hopefully) supply constraints of simply not having hardware.... after all, it has no games here either and it's selling as fast as they can make them. I agree that they need to make games for the Japanese audience, though -- Demon's Souls isn't enough for the U.S. and it's definitely not enough for Japan. Sony has a lot of work to do; this was a pretty bad launch all around.
 
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Woopah

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not irrelevant in sales

irrelevant to gaming as Nintendo stopped dictating the way forward in games in the 90s

it's about as much relevant as card gaming: still sells much, but who cares?
What basis are you using to decide if a country is relevant to gaming?
 
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noshten

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Next year Q1 will be record breaking

TOP 10 2020 Switch Famitsu Q1:
  1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 2.608.417
  2. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 554.390
  3. Ring Fit Adventure - 249.488
  4. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 218.394
  5. Minecraft - 185.900
  6. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 181.921
  7. Smash Ultimate - 170.222
  8. Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 151.351
  9. Super Mario Party - 118.077
  10. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 117.482
TOTAL: 4.555.642
HARDWARE TOTAL: 1.700.352

Hardware last year didn't really reach the level it could have without the pandemic. Supply Chain was pretty hard hit by COVID and so Switch managed 1.7M

Top Q1s Hardware:
  1. DS 2007: 1.930.291
  2. Switch 2019: 1.700.352
  3. 3DS 2013: 1.258.395
  4. 3DS 2012: 1.240.445
  5. DS 2006: 1.212.781
The result for the Switch last year before New Horizon launched? 1.025.215
Overall average of 93K per week hardware sold but one thing we can notice during those weeks was that Ring Fit was in short supply, while Sword / Shield under performed compared to Smash Ultimate despite much higher hardware sales than in 2019. This year you've got Ring Fit Adventure, Momotaro and New Horizon that will keep momentum heading into 2021, all three game's likely sales for Q1 are very high. I would not be surprised if all three outperform Sword / Shield. The other major problem for Q1 2020, was outside of New Horizon & Mystery Dungeon there were no games launched that ended the quarter with over 100K sales.


In 2020 Monster Hunter Rise is slatted to be the first 3rd Party game to launch with over 2 million sales, on the Switch. The game will no doubt be a huge hardware driver. Monster Hunter 4's launch on the 3DS lead to 298.354 hardware sold launch week and 159.388 the following week. Although Rise's is unlikely to cause the same amount of demand on it's own, Ring Fit & New Horizon will remain as a huge hardware drivers next year.

Top 3 Monster Hunter Games Japan:
  1. Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (PSP) - 4.840.930
  2. Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP) - 4.226.265
  3. Monster Hunter 4 (3DS) - 3.591.334
Overall Monster Hunter Rise, is likely to easily become the best selling game in the franchise. Especially when considering the way it's likely to be supported for at least a few more years as Capcom is not able to churn out a Monster Hunter game faster than every three years.


Besides the expected record launch for Rise Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury an enhanced version of a Wii U game that sold 600K in Japan, so likely another 1M+ seller for Nintendo. There are also Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town & Bravely Default 2 launching which with positive WoM will be another two games that could end up seeing huge franchise growth. Olive Town in particular might be a massive hit due to New Horizon's popularity, it's another potential 1M+ game on the Switch. There is also mid-tier games that will likely drop outside of the ones we know about already - Disgaea 6, BOND, Balan Wonderworld - while evergreen titles from this year will continue to sell great numbers.

I guess the big question mark remains about titles that will be revealed as we get further game announcements.
Still it's shaping up as a huge Q1 for gaming in Japan. Bandai, Konami & Sega are the three big names missing in Q1. Unlike the other two Konami will see very good sales thanks to Momotaro, which is heading towards being their top selling game in Japan of all time.


For Sony Q1 is shaping up to also be record-breaking in terms of negative performance, honestly I'm struggling to think of any game that can sell over 100K on the PS5, so companies with strategies around Playstation ecosystem in Japan will struggle:

Sony Ecosystem Q1(since PS4 Launch):
  • 2020: 170.086
  • 2019: 470.092
  • 2018: 774.824
  • 2017: 679.709
  • 2016: 695.258
  • 2015: 1.089.724
  • 2014: 1.088.413
Even if once supply is there PlayStation sees growth and is able to get to 2019 levels, I'm finding it difficult to see how they maintain any semblance of momentum without huge software hits at the current price of the Playstation 5. Japanese 3rd Parties won't be making exclusive games on the PS5 unless Sony is paying for them, as it's just hurting their business as we've seen with Bandai & Square in the past year. There is a far greater risk for them to not create a Switch version at the moment, as rest of Asia is also trending in a similar direction.

The other thing 3rd Parties are mindful about is the Chinese and other Asian markets, it's a huge growth opportunity to localize your games to Chinese & Korean at the moment for a global launch. This is also the first time a dedicated gaming device is gaining mainstream appeal on the Chinese market. With Tencent forming strategic alliances or investing into Japanese game makers, it's increasingly looking like multi-plat with a focus on the Switch version is the winning combination in Asia.
 
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Woopah

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I would be very very surprised if Story of Seasons sold a million at retail, I don't think the franchise will be that big, even if it does grow. How have recent games in the franchise sold?

I also don't think Rise will be the best selling MH title. Beating MH4 is possible, bit 4.8 million is a lot, especially when we know an expanded version is coming in 2022.

For the rest I think you're spot on.
 

FStubbs

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I think Sony's reaction is like this:

"Are we on pace for 200+ million sales worldwide for the PS5? Are companies like Namco, Square-Enix, and Falcom still creating Playstation exclusives? Will pretty much every single Japanese third party game appear on Playstation? Then we are not concerned."
 

noshten

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I would be very very surprised if Story of Seasons sold a million at retail, I don't think the franchise will be that big, even if it does grow. How have recent games in the franchise sold?

I also don't think Rise will be the best selling MH title. Beating MH4 is possible, bit 4.8 million is a lot, especially when we know an expanded version is coming in 2022.

For the rest I think you're spot on.

Well I did call Momotaro passing 1 million without too much trouble months ago, although never in my wildest dreams did I think it has potential to surpass 2 million before the end of Q1 2021, yet here we are.
I get the same feeling about Story of Seasons blowing up. On NintendoJP's YouTube the game has been a good indicator for hype thus far. No one would have expected Sakuna to be the #2 game on the eShop in November or selling 100K physically provided there is enough stock by the end of the year. Overall Marvelous have titles that aligns really well with New Horizon and that's the main reasons why Story of Seasons with good WOM can outperform previous expectations & franchise records.

For Rise, there is huge pent up demand for the franchise on the Switch and like I said I don't really expect Capcom to be able to release another MH game on the device until 2024.

In any case it would be a very strong Q1, personally I think 2021 will be able to top 2020 if Breath of the Wild 2 and Pokemon both launch later in the year.
 
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When the Switch came out Nintendo dropped the Wii U like a stone, but they published 3DS games for another two years. This included bigger budget games like Pokémon and Samus Returns (which had in-house involvement) as well as purely internal titles like Mario Party and the Captain Toad port.

So if Nintendo dropped the Wii U like a rock but didn't drop the 3DS, then by your logic the Switch is the natural successor to the Wii U.

To go back to the original point, yes Nintendo generally does well with its handhelds. That's why the success of the Switch in Japan isn't proof the country has gone handheld only. If the PS5 had Splatoon, Mario Kart 8, Smash Bros, Ring Fit, Pokémon Sword and Shield etc etc then it would be doing very well too.

So no In-House games and Nintendo make Pokemon for all their platforms its hardly a risk, much less an In-House tittle. Keep it coming
 
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Woopah

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So no In-House games and Nintendo make Pokemon for all their platforms its hardly a risk, much less an In-House tittle. Keep it coming
Mario Party was in house, Captain Toad was in house.

You yourself said Nintendo drops a platform like a stone when they release the successor. When Switch launched Nintendo dropped the Wii U, they didn't drop the 3DS.

Why does Pokémon not being a risk matter? You asked about in house titles and AAA titles. If you had asked about risky games, I would have said that the 3DS exclusive game Ever Oasis was a risk as a new IP.

Wii U got no inhouse games, no big budget games and no risky games after the Switch, the 3DS got all three types.
 
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Mario Party was in house, Captain Toad was in house.

You yourself said Nintendo drops a platform like a stone when they release the successor. When Switch launched Nintendo dropped the Wii U, they didn't drop the 3DS.

Why does Pokémon not being a risk matter? You asked about in house titles and AAA titles. If you had asked about risky games, I would have said that the 3DS exclusive game Ever Oasis was a risk as a new IP.

Wii U got no inhouse games, no big budget games and no risky games after the Switch, the 3DS got all three types.

Mario Party wasn't In-House much less what anyone would class a huge risk or a massive AAA Handheld game
. So name me these 3DS In-House titles Nintendo made after the Switch launched?
 
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FStubbs

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Mario Party was in house, Captain Toad was in house.

You yourself said Nintendo drops a platform like a stone when they release the successor. When Switch launched Nintendo dropped the Wii U, they didn't drop the 3DS.

Why does Pokémon not being a risk matter? You asked about in house titles and AAA titles. If you had asked about risky games, I would have said that the 3DS exclusive game Ever Oasis was a risk as a new IP.

Wii U got no inhouse games, no big budget games and no risky games after the Switch, the 3DS got all three types.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the Switch. Nintendo usually drops their consoles like a stone, but not their handhelds.
 

Woopah

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Mario Party wasn't In-House much less what anyone would class a huge risk or a massive AAA Handheld game
. So name me these 3DS In-House titles Nintendo made after the Switch launched?
Mario Party: The Top 100 - developed by ND Cube which is an in-house Nintendo developer. They are Nintendo employees and the studio is fully owned by Nintendo. They are just as much an in-house studio as Japan Studio, Polyphony Digital or Guerilla Games are for Sony.

Captain Toad Treasure Tracker - The 3DS version was created by NST, which is also an in-house Nintendo studio.

This list doesn't include the games created from collaborations between in-house developers and external studios, of which there were several.

When Switch launched Nintendo dropped the WIi U, they didn't drop the 3DS. Do you agree with this? If not, why not?

In the months after the Switch launch Nintendo continued to publish games on the 3DS, and Nintendo employees continued to develop games on the 3DS. The same cannot be said for the Wii U.
 
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Woopah

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It'll be interesting to see what happens with the Switch. Nintendo usually drops their consoles like a stone, but not their handhelds.
I think something similar to what we're seeing Sony do, some cross gen games and some next gen exclusives.

I'm not expecting a proper successor until 2023 at the earliest. A revision next year is likely.
 
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In the months after the Switch launch Nintendo continued to publish games on the 3DS, and Nintendo employees continued to develop games on the 3DS. The same cannot be said for the Wii U.

I stand corrected over Mario Party but if the best you can do is list a couple of lame game that Nintendo published, I don't count it . So I'll ask again, name me the In-House AAA games Nintendo made for the 3DS after the Switch launched?
 
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Woopah

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I stand corrected over Mario Party but if the best you can do is list a couple of lame game that Nintendo published, I don't count it . So I'll ask again, name me the In-House AAA games Nintendo made for the 3DS after the Switch launched?
None. Exactly the same number as the Wii U.

But they did continue publishing 3DS games that were AAA and they did develop 3DS games that were in-house. The point was that they carried on supporting the 3DS after the Switch launched while they dropped the Wii U like a stone.

So your point that the lack of post-Switch 3DS support means that Switch is it's successor makes no sense. 3DS received far far far better support after the Switch launch than the Wii U did.

In my opinion the Switch is the successor to BOTH the Wii U and 3DS. Can we agree on that?
 
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FStubbs

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I stand corrected over Mario Party but if the best you can do is list a couple of lame game that Nintendo published, I don't count it . So I'll ask again, name me the In-House AAA games Nintendo made for the 3DS after the Switch launched?

That's a trick question because the 3DS didn't 'have any AAA games. In fact, I'd argue Nintendo is mostly a AA developer with the occasional AAA game like BotW.

That being said, if you mean big first party games, then Metroid 2: Samus Returns and Pokemon Ultra Sun/Moon certainly count - though I guess you'd probably argue Ultra Sun/Moon was a DLC patch.
 
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Woopah

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Thank you

That doesn't support your argument though, as I explained in the rest of my post.

How many in-house AAA games from Nintendo came to the Wii U after Switch had launched? 0

So by your own reasons, that is proof that Switch is the successor to Wii U just as much as it is the successor to the 3DS.
 
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FStubbs

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I think something similar to what we're seeing Sony do, some cross gen games and some next gen exclusives.

I'm not expecting a proper successor until 2023 at the earliest. A revision next year is likely.

That's about when I'd expect their successor as well. My guess is there's no new gimmick - basically Super Switch. The numbers will say it's a little more powerful than the PS4 (Apple is past the PS4 now but everyone else is 2 years behind Apple - though now that nVidia owns ARM, who knows what they'll try to push forward in the next couple of years), but will have a much better CPU and modern architecture that will let UE5 scale down to it. Then 2029-2030 we'd see Nintendo flip over the table and do something radical again.
 
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It's support that Nintendo regrets I think. After 2017 3DS software sales collapsed so Ultra Sun and Moon should have been the final first party games for the system.

Definitely. They would have at least one additional Switch game each from Intelligent Systems, Grezzo, Camelot, and Good-feel by now.
 

Woopah

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That's about when I'd expect their successor as well. My guess is there's no new gimmick - basically Super Switch. The numbers will say it's a little more powerful than the PS4 (Apple is past the PS4 now but everyone else is 2 years behind Apple - though now that nVidia owns ARM, who knows what they'll try to push forward in the next couple of years), but will have a much better CPU and modern architecture that will let UE5 scale down to it. Then 2029-2030 we'd see Nintendo flip over the table and do something radical again.
I have no idea what 2030 will bring but the next Nintendo console as the potential to be their best in years. All the 3DS teams will be used to HD development by then and they'll have strong third party support from the beginning rather than having to prove themselves and build up support over many years.
Definitely. They would have at least one additional Switch game each from Intelligent Systems, Grezzo, Camelot, and Good-feel by now.
I don't think we'd have that many, a Switch game takes more time/resources than a 3DS one. You're right that we would have got games sooner.
 
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