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Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, Blockchain, and You: Navigating the Future of Tech (a NeoGAF discussion thread)

Ascend

Member
Why would any one buy a crypto based on gold when you get real gold?
Thank you for not reading the article. I'm just going to copy the main parts, and that should answer your question.

In the traditional markets investors can certainly buy as much physical or allocated gold as they like, but along with the purchase comes the high risk of physical gold. This risk is due to the size and weight or larger gold bars, the expense of storing it safely, the inability to divide it into smaller units easily, and the fact that because it can be difficult to transport it can also be difficult to sell, trade, or use.

The alternative is to trade on unallocated gold futures, CFDs, or ETFs. These are just derivatives, without the backing of any physical gold at all. None of them involve actual ownership of gold. Rather it is little more than speculation of the changing price of gold without any physical gold to back up any of the assets. It makes trading easy, but there is no store of value involved.


And here it comes:
The PAX Gold asset is fully regulated by the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYSDFS). There is no unallocated gold included in the PAXG backing, instead it is fully-collateralized by physical gold at the ratio of one troy ounce (roughly 31 grams) of a gold bar complying with the London Good Delivery standard, to one PAXG token.

By using Paxos Gold users get the benefit of physical gold ownership, without the downsides of storage and transport. Instead they can take advantage of the mobility and speed of transfer that comes with digital assets.
The PAXG tokens have been made extremely flexible, and users are able to convert tokens to fiat currency quickly and easily, or they can opt to convert the tokens to allocated and unallocated gold if they wish, just as quickly and easily. Unlike the futures gold market, Paxos Gold digital tokens carry no settlement risk.


Edit: Reposting link since we're on a new page.
 
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Ascend

Member
the 2017 cycle had five 30% or more dips within its entire bull run. this bull run has not even had one yet. iirc there was like a 20ish and 25ish percent drop. significant surely, but in reality when looking at history nothing too terrible in the grand scheme of things. just healthy movement.
You mean drops to the 21week MA. This is true. It's better to take advantage of those drops than not to though.

The fact that we haven't had a correction to the 21W MA means it can happen at any time. Right now the 21W MA is about 22k. So a drop to there is possible still. The longer we go sideways, the higher the 21W MA will be, the less BTC will likely drop.

We are holding the 21 day MA. That is a good sign. It is acting as very strong support. Whenever we touch it, we immediately form a bottom wick, pushing the price higher.

what's the likelihood of Bitcoin going down to $10k? $20k?
Generally, during bull markets, BTC doesn't drop below the 21 week moving average for a significant amount of time. So right now, the lowest we expect BTC to drop to is 22k-ish. It might reach 20k for a very short time, but it should rebound really quickly.

It can drop lower than 20k. But then this would be the shortest bull market BTC has ever experienced. It is possible, but I don't think it's likely, and I do not think we will ever see BTC at 10k again.
 
Bitcoins weekly chart is absurd. The prior low is 10.6k. Meaning we can watch btc drop straight down into that region and as long as bitcoin doesn't close a weekly candle below 10.6k, it is technically still in an uptrend. We would be watching a higher low setup. Bull market would still be in play.

However if bitcoin stairsteps its way down, lower highs and lower lows, that's a reversal and possibly end of bull market.
 

V4skunk

Banned
Thank you for not reading the article. I'm just going to copy the main parts, and that should answer your question.

In the traditional markets investors can certainly buy as much physical or allocated gold as they like, but along with the purchase comes the high risk of physical gold. This risk is due to the size and weight or larger gold bars, the expense of storing it safely, the inability to divide it into smaller units easily, and the fact that because it can be difficult to transport it can also be difficult to sell, trade, or use.

The alternative is to trade on unallocated gold futures, CFDs, or ETFs. These are just derivatives, without the backing of any physical gold at all. None of them involve actual ownership of gold. Rather it is little more than speculation of the changing price of gold without any physical gold to back up any of the assets. It makes trading easy, but there is no store of value involved.


And here it comes:
The PAX Gold asset is fully regulated by the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYSDFS). There is no unallocated gold included in the PAXG backing, instead it is fully-collateralized by physical gold at the ratio of one troy ounce (roughly 31 grams) of a gold bar complying with the London Good Delivery standard, to one PAXG token.

By using Paxos Gold users get the benefit of physical gold ownership, without the downsides of storage and transport. Instead they can take advantage of the mobility and speed of transfer that comes with digital assets.
The PAXG tokens have been made extremely flexible, and users are able to convert tokens to fiat currency quickly and easily, or they can opt to convert the tokens to allocated and unallocated gold if they wish, just as quickly and easily. Unlike the futures gold market, Paxos Gold digital tokens carry no settlement risk.


Edit: Reposting link since we're on a new page.
I don't care.
And you'd have to be dumb to back paxos instead of physical gold.
 

Ascend

Member
Bitcoins weekly chart is absurd. The prior low is 10.6k. Meaning we can watch btc drop straight down into that region and as long as bitcoin doesn't close a weekly candle below 10.6k, it is technically still in an uptrend. We would be watching a higher low setup. Bull market would still be in play.

However if bitcoin stairsteps its way down, lower highs and lower lows, that's a reversal and possibly end of bull market.
During the last market cycle, when BTC broke the 2013 all time high of ~$1200, it immediately rallied all the way to $3k. It then dropped to $1800. We never saw $1200 again. It never retested that level.

Past price action does not guarantee future results, but the structures are rhyming.

2017
Broke 2013 All time high of $1200
Reached the price of $3000, which is just over double
Corrected ~35% to 21 weekly average

Now
Broke all time high of 2017 of $20k
Reached the price of $42k, which is just over double

What do you think happens next?

A 35% correction would put us around ~26k, which depending on how fast it happens, would be right about where the 21 weekly average is going to be in very little time.
 

Ascend

Member
I don't care.
And you'd have to be dumb to back paxos instead of physical gold.
Why are you even in this thread then, when you choose to completely ignore that the Paxos Gold Token is fully backed by physical gold...?
If that's your attitude, I don't think you belong in this thread, and it would be better for all of us if you go spend your time elsewhere.

On another note... A happy BTC story xD Seemed worth sharing
 
During the last market cycle, when BTC broke the 2013 all time high of ~$1200, it immediately rallied all the way to $3k. It then dropped to $1800. We never saw $1200 again. It never retested that level.

Past price action does not guarantee future results, but the structures are rhyming.

2017
Broke 2013 All time high of $1200
Reached the price of $3000, which is just over double
Corrected ~35% to 21 weekly average

Now
Broke all time high of 2017 of $20k
Reached the price of $42k, which is just over double

What do you think happens next?

A 35% correction would put us around ~26k, which depending on how fast it happens, would be right about where the 21 weekly average is going to be in very little time.
Short-term I see a sideways market in the mid 30k range. Mostly boring for bitcoin. Long-term the weekly, monthly, bimonthly, and quarterly are all up so, I will remain bullish on bitcoin as long as the majority of those higher term time frames remain in an uptrend.

Right now the weekly looks like it wants to put in a higher low which for me is fine. The 28% correction we just had imho is close enough to the standard bitcoin corrections. I'm not expecting a 26k bitcoin anytime soon but if that did happen I see that as a major buying opportunity.

For perspective I've been mostly hodling since last summer so that obviously colors my interpretation of the market.

I'd like to hear your thoughts on bitcoin short term. I imagine long term you're bullish as well?
 

V4skunk

Banned
Why are you even in this thread then, when you choose to completely ignore that the Paxos Gold Token is fully backed by physical gold...?
If that's your attitude, I don't think you belong in this thread, and it would be better for all of us if you go spend your time elsewhere.

On another note... A happy BTC story xD Seemed worth sharing

Lol like I said why would I go paxos when I can get gold and physically own it?
And if you read a few posts back you'll see I came here to inform about how stable gold is for saving your money if you are not willing to risk bitcoin.
You should all research gold and how China, Russia etc.. Have formed a new gold backed currency to replace the $.
The price of gold is going to sky rocket in the future and now is a very good time to jump in.
 

Ascend

Member
to think ETH was around $100 at the start of 2020 and I ignored it thinking crypto was stagnant/near death and also the world seemed to be ending with the pandemic
The best time to buy is when people think crypto is dead. Crypto is not going to die, any more than the internet is going to die.

Short-term I see a sideways market in the mid 30k range. Mostly boring for bitcoin. Long-term the weekly, monthly, bimonthly, and quarterly are all up so, I will remain bullish on bitcoin as long as the majority of those higher term time frames remain in an uptrend.

Right now the weekly looks like it wants to put in a higher low which for me is fine. The 28% correction we just had imho is close enough to the standard bitcoin corrections. I'm not expecting a 26k bitcoin anytime soon but if that did happen I see that as a major buying opportunity.

For perspective I've been mostly hodling since last summer so that obviously colors my interpretation of the market.

I'd like to hear your thoughts on bitcoin short term. I imagine long term you're bullish as well?
I'm both bearish and bullish, depending on the time frame. For the next few months, I'm a bit bearish. I'm definitely bullish for Q2 and Q3. Q4, I don't know yet, but I expect 2022 to be a more bearish market, with good accumulation in 2023 and the next bull market arriving around 2025. In the next decade I expect Bitcoin to become the most used store of value, more so than Gold.

can I buy crypto with an American Express gift card anywhere? It looks like the exchanges only allow Visa/Mastercard
The Paxful ecosystem comes to the rescue...

Lol like I said why would I go paxos when I can get gold and physically own it?
Because it's a lot easier to protect, save and quickly sell your Paxos Gold than it is physical gold. And Paxos Gold is not like the IOUs handed out by banks where only a fraction is reserved. It is pegged 1 to 1 to real gold. If you feel safer with physical gold, that's fine. But it's not exactly prudent to bash a legitimate and legally verified crypto bridge to gold just because you want to be dismissive of it.

And if you read a few posts back you'll see I came here to inform about how stable gold is for saving your money if you are not willing to risk bitcoin.
And I simply added to that, that there's a shortcut way to get access to gold investment if you're already in the crypto space and made a lot of money.

You should all research gold and how China, Russia etc.. Have formed a new gold backed currency to replace the $.
The price of gold is going to sky rocket in the future and now is a very good time to jump in.
You know, I'm more a technicals kind of guy rather than fundamentals. So my perspective is this;
If Gold soars against the USD, it's mainly because the USD went into hyper inflation. The USD has after all, lost more than 96% of its value since its inception.
And honestly, if you needed to choose either Gold or BTC for saving your capital since the inception of Bitcoin, Bitcoin is simply the better choice. Here's what the value of Gold looks like against Bitcoin, and note that this is a logarithmic chart;
Av0YgAs.png
That looks awfully like the USD chart against Gold. Just saying...;
bxWuCII.png
 
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Problem with gold is that it's currently in process of undergoing a reversal. You've a got series of lower highs and lower lows on the weekly. The monthly closes in 8+ days and any sort of closure below 1900 and you have a potential lower high on the monthly. So.......

NOT a confirmed reversal yet, not even close and I'm obviously wrong if the monthly closes above 1900 but, something to keep an eye on.
 
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Ascend

Member
Problem with gold is that it's currently in process of undergoing a reversal. You've a got series of lower highs and lower lows on the weekly. The monthly closes in 8+ days and any sort of closure below 1900 and you have a lower high on the monthly. So.......

NOT a confirmed reversal yet, not even close and I'm obviously wrong if the monthly closes above 1900 but, something to keep an eye on.
Based on the daily, I think Gold's correction is done as of now. And it held the 233 daily moving average quite nicely (I use fib moving averages, which not many people do).
There is a bearish divergence on the MACD on the daily, but bullish divergence on the weekly... I think Gold will be going up soon.

In a way, in between BTC corrections, you might be better off hedging with gold than with the USD.
 
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Finding it strange how people are saying they would rather invest in physical gold, though the VAST majority invest in gold via ETF's. It is a tiny percent who actually go through the process of getting gold shipped to their house, safe or whatever. If this is how you invest in gold, it would be better to use something like Paxos as it is fully verifiable on chain.

Everyone comes into the crypto space looking to make a quick buck, but majority end up sticking around for the revolution
 
Is any one looking at gold?
It's a good place to save your money if you are not willing to risk it on bitcoin.
Check out the last two decades history of the price of gold.
Yes, gold is always the best bet (especially in the long term ).
You can sell coins everywhere at spot price, i have some sovereigns and Lunar coins in case of rainy days.
 

Ascend

Member
This is all against USD.

BTC has bullish divergence on the daily MACD, and is also about to cross bullish.
On the 4h, the 233 MA is holding beautifully. But at the same time, a descending triangle is forming on this time frame. We need to break and remain above 36k to confirm bullish reversal.

ETH is battling to break its previous ATH. It looks like it's going to happen soon. I suspect during the 1st week of February. As long as BTC doesn't crash.

LINK is forming a bearish divergence on the daily MACD. I expect a retest of at least $18-$19 soon.

XRP looks to be accumulating before another pump.

DOT also seems to be accumulating, although it just had a large pump. It does not look like it's going to correct though, but will primarily consolidate. DOT doesn't have a lot of historical data, so, extra caution for this one.

ADA seems to be forming a HUGE cup with handle on the weekly. As of now, only the cup is visible. If the handle is formed, I'll definitely jump on it. We need to have a retrace to about .25 to .3 to complete the pattern.

QTUM seems to be a sleeping giant. It is lagging a lot behind the rest of the market and is yet to pump significantly. If it does, we're looking at potentially 500% gains, just to previous ATH where most other currencies are already at. A similar situation applies to IOTA and NULS.

ICX is a bit ahead of QTUM, but also has not reached its ATH yet. It started its upstrend and is battling a previous resistance point. No signs of reversal yet.

Disclaimer;
Not financial advice, always do your own analysis and your own investment choices.
 
XLM has so far not come close to hitting its ATH again too
Just keep in mind its competitors, they have done well. It is very tough to try and compete with Ether, especially if you are not giving constant updates, news, partnerships, etc. Not sure the last time I even heard XLM news, other than price prediction news. In my opinion, it is pretty much garbage.

With that being said, it could certainly explode in price. Just don't think it is on fundamentals, people just want their bags to pump
 

DonMigs85

Member
Just keep in mind its competitors, they have done well. It is very tough to try and compete with Ether, especially if you are not giving constant updates, news, partnerships, etc. Not sure the last time I even heard XLM news, other than price prediction news. In my opinion, it is pretty much garbage.

With that being said, it could certainly explode in price. Just don't think it is on fundamentals, people just want their bags to pump
They actually did a 3x pump earlier this month after announcing a Ukraine bank partnership. Their Twitter and Facebook is decently active too
 

mango drank

Member
If BTC holds 30k now, chances are that the correction is over, and we are going up from here.
If it doesn't, expect bleeding all through the majority of February.
I have a feeling a good amount of BTC money comes from the same people investing in meme stocks, and that's where the money's been moving instead. So if GME stock / AMC stock / etc keep going up, expect BTC to keep going down.
 

Ascend

Member
I have a feeling a good amount of BTC money comes from the same people investing in meme stocks, and that's where the money's been moving instead. So if GME stock / AMC stock / etc keep going up, expect BTC to keep going down.
That's plausible, at least for the short term. But the bulk of the BTC dump happened quite a while back, while only now those stocks are pumping. If there were that many people getting out of BTC to go into those stocks, I don't think we would be holding 30k right now.
 

mango drank

Member
That's plausible, at least for the short term. But the bulk of the BTC dump happened quite a while back, while only now those stocks are pumping. If there were that many people getting out of BTC to go into those stocks, I don't think we would be holding 30k right now.
Maybe, it's hard to tell. I think a lot of people got out of BTC throughout Jan just to bank the profits, not because of the stocks. Then the sellers sat on the money, and slowly GME et al reared their heads.
 

Ascend

Member
Over 20% of longs got liquidated today. Shorts are still relatively low... There are still too many long positions for us to move up.
 

Belmonte

Member
Enerving.

Bullish news almost every day but we will probably spend the next month slowly going down. I don't have enough knowledge or money to operate in this scenario. But I sold my satoshis when the bitcoin was at 37000 so I got that going for me, which is nice.
 
GME might already be correcting it seems? And how likely is it that they'll even be seeing much actual profit?
Judging by pre-market opening, it is still mooning. Though this entire GME/short squeezing scenario that's playing out is insane. People talking about how volatile and manipulated the cryptocurrency markets are, then we have major wall street hedge funds having MASSIVE exposure shorting these stocks.

136% of gamestops shares were being sold short, literally 36% more than is even available on the market? And crypto is just fully manipulation??? LOL
 
This isn't fully related to cryptocurrencies, but with Robinhood removing trading of GameStop, Blackberry, and others; This is a prime example of why we will see decentralized blockchain platforms for stock purchases/trading.

LET THE FREE MARKET RUN ITS COURSE, it isn't WallStreetBets fault that these hedge funds were over exposed/leveraged and got exposed. I don't want to live in a world where trading can be halted because some rich hedge funds are losing too much money. If it were the other way around and the stock was going to 0, we wouldn't hear a peep about this.

Hypocrisy 101
 
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