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Business Analysis Sales-Age Ampere: PS5 and Xbox Series X|S sales in line with, not ahead of, previous gen

IbizaPocholo

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Data from Ampere Analysis suggests that Xbox Series X|S has sold 2.8 million units since launching in November -- lagging a little behind the Xbox One during the same post-launch timeframe at 2.9 million units.

Meanwhile, PS5 has matched the performance of PS4, which shifted 4.2 million units in its first few months after launching in November 2013.

It's also worth noting the PS4 achieved this without its home market of Japan, where it did not launch until Q1 2014. PS5, meanwhile, launched simultaneously worldwide.

Last week, Sony's financials reported PS5 has sold 4.5 million units -- confirming it as the most successful PlayStation, and by extension the most successful home console, of all time.

However, Sony's figures usually represent sales to retail or shipments, while Ampere claims its data focuses on sell-through -- sales directly to consumers.

The pandemic is undeniably a factor here, with both platform holders suffering constraints and likely to face fierce competition for key components throughout 2021.

Ampere believes PS5 would likely have sold more than five million units thus far had availability been less of an issue.

The analysis firm also expects PS5 could sell between 7.6 million and 8 million consoles by the end of March 2021, which would put it ahead of PS4's 7.5 million sales in the same time frame.

It's deemed more disappointing to see stock issues preventing Microsoft from capitalising on the advantages it had as the next-gen launches approached.

Despite having the cheapest next-gen console in the Xbox Series S, and launching in more than three times as many markets as the Xbox One in Novembr 2013, the company still fell 100,000 units short of its previous performance.

Ampere adds that, while Microsoft is focusing on recurring revenue through Game Pass and general audience engagement across consoles, PC and even mobile, rather than primarily relying on traditional hardware sales, it believes Series X|S owners will remain A cornerstone of the Xbox business until at least 2025.
 

Kokoloko85

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Maybe because theres a pandemic and harder to make these units.
Otherwise it would sell more easily because they’ve harldy been able to keep stock
 
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Shelookdlvl18

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Yeah, having done simply a few minutes of research, I have concluded that this article is garbage.

It was already estimated by more reputable analysts last week that XBSX/S had shipped around 3.5m. According to these guys MS is roughly selling 2 out of 3 console they've produced so far. Claiming they've sold through 2.8m leaves over 700k units sitting on store shelves. (Probably all located in Finland).
I'd give this article more weight if I was more familiar with them.

They also state that Sony has shipped 4.5m PS5's, and sold through 4.2m over the first 3 months. They then go on to say that they expect the PS5 to sell through to 8m by the end of March. I'd bet the farm that the PS5 could do those numbers easy if the current supply issues didn't exist. But unfortunately they do, and I find it hard to believe that supply chains can produce 4.5m since launch in November, but will be able to almost double that in a little over a month.
 
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Elios83

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Yeah, having done simply a few minutes of research, I have concluded that this article is garbage.

It was already estimated by more reputable analysts last week that XBSX/S had shipped around 3.5m. According to these guys MS is roughly selling 2 out of 3 console they've produced so far. Claiming they've sold through 2.8m leaves over 700k units sitting on store shelves. (Probably all located in Finland).
I'd give this article more weight if I was more familiar with them.

They also state that Sony has shipped 4.5m PS5's, and sold through 4.2m over the first 3 months. They then go on to say that they expect the PS5 to sell through to 8m by the end of March. I'd bet the farm that the PS5 could do those numbers easy if the current supply issues didn't exist. But unfortunately they do, and I find it hard to believe that supply chains can produce 4.5m since launch in November, but will be able to almost double that in a little over a month.

Sony said they expect to surpass PS4 shipments by the end of March.
That means at least 7.6m shipped until the end of March which means at least 3.1m shipped for the January-March quarter.
7.6m minimum to 8m is not a big difference.
So this report is pretty realistic Sony wise, they're simply sticking by what Sony officially stated, nothing more.
The MS numbers are also realistic, they're simply a lot behind with manufacturing. Your 3.5m number is an other's analyst (ZhugeEx) guess and if you want to believe him he said they're more than a million behind so less than 3.5m shipped.
 
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Dec 10, 2020
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Yeah, having done simply a few minutes of research, I have concluded that this article is garbage.

It was already estimated by more reputable analysts last week that XBSX/S had shipped around 3.5m. According to these guys MS is roughly selling 2 out of 3 console they've produced so far. Claiming they've sold through 2.8m leaves over 700k units sitting on store shelves. (Probably all located in Finland).
I'd give this article more weight if I was more familiar with them.

They also state that Sony has shipped 4.5m PS5's, and sold through 4.2m over the first 3 months. They then go on to say that they expect the PS5 to sell through to 8m by the end of March. I'd bet the farm that the PS5 could do those numbers easy if the current supply issues didn't exist. But unfortunately they do, and I find it hard to believe that supply chains can produce 4.5m since launch in November, but will be able to almost double that in a little over a month.

Zhuge never claimed around 3.5 million Xboxes was shipped. He claimed a bit over 1 million behind shipped. So, few 100ks above 1 mill.
If you claiming that Amperes research is garbage so it must be Zhuges too. Also, Ampere numbers were published by Gameindustry.biz, so, Amperes numbers has some weight

There are no 700k Xboxes on shelves ( although, XSS isn't selling fast as XSX) . Said above :

Units shipped also include those currently in the process of shipping to distribution centers and retailers from production warehouses.

PS4 shipped 4.5M by December 31 2013 and sold through 4.2M December 28 2013. There is always a gap.
 
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Shelookdlvl18

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Sony said they expect to surpass PS4 shipments by the end of March.
That means at least 7.6m shipped until the end of March which means at least 3.1m shipped for the January-March quarter.
7.6m minimum to 8m is not a big difference.
So this report is pretty realistic Sony wise, they're simply sticking by what Sony officially stated, nothing more.
The MS numbers are also realistic, they're simply a lot behind with manufacturing. Your 3.5m number is an other's analyst (ZhugeEx) guess and if you want to believe him he said they're more than a million behind so less than 3.5m shipped.
It clearly states that Ampere "focuses on sell through", as well as "The analysis firm expects the PS5 to sell between 7.6m to 8.0m by the end of March."

If Ampere here focuses on sell through numbers, and expects the PS5 to reach 7.6-80m sales by end of March, then that would put the PS5 shipped numbers at well over 8m units.

I'm not suggesting the PS5 couldn't get those kinds of numbers. I just have doubts as to the supply issue.

As for the Xbox... You're correct. Ahmad said a bit over, so that would be slightly less, so that makes it more realistic perhaps. How does he get the sell through data, or is it just their best guess?

My opinion is still that the article is garbage. It doesn't appear as if there's any solid info here that wasn't reported elsewhere a week ago. I also find it poorly constructed due to only the brief mention of supply issues.
 

Unknown?

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This article claims Sony numbers usually are shipped which definitely isn't true nowadays. They say shipped when they mean shipped, otherwise when they say sold it means sold to consumers. This isn't the PS2 era...
 

ChuckeRearmed

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It is useless to discuss it now because the stock is limited. We will have to wait at least a year.
 
Dec 10, 2020
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This article claims Sony numbers usually are shipped which definitely isn't true nowadays. They say shipped when they mean shipped, otherwise when they say sold it means sold to consumers. This isn't the PS2 era...

Sony in their last report stated sold-in PS5s
 
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Ten_Fold

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Well we are in a pandemic, most people can’t just go to a store and buy them, also a good amount of them are just sitting in someone’s house because they are reselling.
 

michaelius

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Jan 5, 2012
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There's major problem getting goods deliver from China to the rest of the world and huge shortage of containers. Few hundred k units being produced but in various stages of delivery to shops is very likely.
 

ethomaz

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There were ~300k PS5s sitting around somewhere?
On the day or close to the shipment? Probably.
If you shipped 300k units in December 29, 30 and 31 these units where not sold yet and so it is not counted as sold to consumers as of Dec 31... it will probably count as sold to consumers in a few days late but at that time the Sony will have shipped more units.

There will be always a shipment vs sold to consumers difference unless you discontinued a product and all the units were sold.

You need to understand big retailer have a main warehouse and take around 2-3 days to distribute to the stores across the country after they receive the shipment... so only after some days after the shipment it can be sold to consumers.
 
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