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Sony CEO: "We have not yet decided on PS6 launch timing"

"When AI came, the net effect is that the demand curve shifted to the right. Meaning that the fair market price for memory has been permanently and irrevocably increased."
I am defending against an oxymoronic interpretation of what I said. what I said is not memory prices will forever increase. in fact I am making a point that they can hold consumer memory prices at whatever level they need to maintain large operational profits.
 
I have a hard time imagine a PS6 successor while after 6 years Sony still hasn't figured out how to cool the PS5 without relying on esoteric liquid metal.
 
Well it will not be equal in term of specs and raw power, but it will be close just like how base PS5 equal to RTX 2070 Super and closer to RTX 2080 in terms of raster (non RT) with "universal decompression tech (increasing bandwidth) "and 30 GB RAM (2X of RTX 5080 RAM) and software optimization.
No Way Funny Meme GIF
 
Well it will not be equal in term of specs and raw power, but it will be close just like how base PS5 equal to RTX 2070 Super and closer to RTX 2080 in terms of raster (non RT) with "universal decompression tech (increasing bandwidth) "and 30 GB RAM (2X of RTX 5080 RAM) and software optimization.
PS5 is equal to RTX 2070 | 3060 in Raster. But the RT gap is massive. Making the perf comparison meaningless.

The key issue is RDNA2/3 Windows drivers are mediocre. Meanwhile Mesa Linux driver is 1:1 with PS5. So it makes Nvidia vs AMD comparisons tough. Because Nvidia is the opposite of AMD (great Windows, meh Linux).

You also forget PS5 has to share it's memory with CPU and OS. While on PC VRAM is just for dGPU.

The best "stand-in" for PS5 is an RX 6600XT. The best "stand-in" for PS6 is an RTX 5070 SUPER.
 
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I'm not making the argument that prices will never come down. It's more nuanced than that. I'm saying things will never go back to 2023-2024 levels or to the old memory market. You're misunderstanding two things:

1. 2024 wasn't "normal." It was a bloodbath. Samsung and SK Hynix were operating at massive losses from a post-COVID/Mining glut. At the same time, state-subsidized Chinese CXMT flooded the market with DDR4 below cost. Memory was structurally underpriced. That's the market that let Sony, a minor memory customer, get $2.9/GB on GDDR6-18Gbps and think 30GB of GDDR7 wasn't madness.

2. Every previous memory cycle had the same demand driver: humans buying devices. PCs in the 90s. Smartphones in the 2010s. Laptops during COVID. The endpoints are fixed, and cheaper memory only minimally increases sales because consumers see memory as a peripheral component. Nobody buys a second phone because memory got cheap, and cheap memory doesn't meaningfully change the endpoint price.

The AI inference market is completely different. Memory is a binding constraint. Capacity determines what model size you can run. Speed determines how many customers you can serve. The AI market treats memory like energy. With oil, lower prices drive higher consumption. Same logic applies here: if memory costs drop and inference gets cheaper it reliably leads to more consumption. More applications become economically viable. More agents get deployed. More models get served. More context windows get extended. Demand for intelligence/Automation, like demand for energy, is very elastic to price declines.

On top of that, the AI market is now bigger than the consumer market and acts as a permanent balancing sink. The cartel isn't offering multi-year agreements anymore, it's 3 and 6 month contracts. You want 12 months you pay in advance. They continuously pull supply in and out of the client side into the AI side, meaning if consumer demand collapses, consumer supply will too. And on the AI side, more supply reliably and elastically creates more demand, which suppresses the price drop of getting more supply.

The existence of a the now bigger AI memory market will allow the cartel to change the behavior of the boom and bust consumer memory market. They can trivially adjust supply between the AI market and the consumer market to defend a price band. KeplerL2's case for memory prices to go back to "normal" is a market crash so severe it's worse than 2008. Yes, that's possible.

Above all, the primary argument I am making is that this is completely uncharted territory. Again "GUARANTEE" is the key word when I said:


To me the only way to break out is by making changes on the Supply side that can substantially decrease the production costs. Thus 60%+ Op margins for cartel can be met at a lower price. I don't see how the cartel can make TSMC sized CAPEX investments without TSMC sized returns on invested capital.
If you're not making the argument that prices will never come down then I agree with that. I also agree pricing won't return to the 2024/2025 lows we had, not for quite a while at least. But I'd expect pricing to eventually drop to lower levels than they are now. Not this year, or 2027 even, but likely 2028 onwards. Enough for a 30GB PS5? Maybe, maybe not, really depends on too many factors to call right now.

PS6 TDP is lower.
Is it? 160w is just for the SoC, not the entire console. Based on the original 7nm PS5 being 200-220w than it's probably similar to the power draw of the PS5 SoC.
 
PS5 is equal to RTX 2070 | 3060 in Raster. But the RT gap is massive. Making the perf comparison meaningless.

The key issue is RDNA2/3 Windows drivers are mediocre. Meanwhile Mesa Linux driver is 1:1 with PS5. So it makes Nvidia vs AMD comparisons tough. Because Nvidia is the opposite of AMD (great Windows, meh Linux).

You also forget PS5 has to share it's memory with CPU and OS. While on PC VRAM is just for dGPU.

The best "stand-in" for PS5 is an RX 6600XT. The best "stand-in" for PS6 is an RTX 5070 SUPER.

6700 has more comparable bandwidth and match in CU count. 5070 Super doesn't exist, PS6 looks to be somewhere around 4070Ti Super - 5070Ti.
 
If you believe the leak, you also need to consider that it was an early estimate and likely inaccurate. Kepler has confirmed that as well.

But the lack of bandwidth makes it pretty likely. There really isn't much of a reason to push the clocks like they did with the PS5.
 
I really hope the PS6 design isn't an eyesore like the PS5 is. The PS5 is easily by far one of the worst designed Playstation consoles in terms of aesthetics. Even to this day the PS5 is still a monstrosity despite its slim revisions.
 
Except PS5 runs 2.0 GHz mostly and 6700 runs 2.45 GHz. And effective bandwidth wise 6700 is 464 (42% hit rate) vs 448 on PS5.

We don't exactly know internal clocks for games on PS5, and specs are closer in 6700.

6600XT was the best match before 6700 was released.
 
We don't exactly know internal clocks for games on PS5, and specs are closer in 6700.
We know a 2.0 GHz PS5 running Linux runs 99-100% of PS5's perf. And that a floating 2.23 GHz PS5 (2.0~2.23 GHz but you thermally throttle down to 2.10 and there abouts) beats PS5.

The jig is up we got bullshitted by Cerny.
 
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The jig is up we got bullshitted by Cerny.

Cerny also stresses that power consumption and clock speeds don't have a linear relationship. Dropping frequency by 10 per cent reduces power consumption by around 27 per cent. "In general, a 10 per cent power reduction is just a few per cent reduction in frequency," Cerny emphasises.

People focused on what Cerny said publicly:
-10% Power ~ low single digit perf loss.

But what he said privately was the more relevant one:
-27% Power at 2.0 GHz vs 2.23 GHz. (-10% clock = -27% power)

Remember that the PS5 was supposed to be 2.0 GHz to begin with. And you realize 2.23 GHz is more a boost mode that requires you to throttle CPU below 3.2 GHz and for CPU load to not be heavy.

Unless one argues that PS5 games are less optimized than Proton games running on Linux Mesa driver, it's inescapable to think of the PS5's GPU runs at 2.0 GHz and thereabouts.

(Note this doesn't change much for the comparison against XSX because Series X has a weaker GPU frontend).

We can continue in DMs if you want to litigate this. This isn't the thread for it.
 
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But the lack of bandwidth makes it pretty likely. There really isn't much of a reason to push the clocks like they did with the PS5.
Will all come down to performance targets. Can it reach 9070xt raster with the CU count at lower clocks?
 
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The authoritative commentary in this thread is hilarious.

There is no PS6, no confirmed specs, no clarity on timeline.

Sony will not ship this thing anytime soon, Especially when Nintendo's share price is dying because their business is massively exposed, with a multi-billion dollar investment in R&D, manufacture & stockpiling for SW2, that walked right into a supply chain cost crisis.

The entire economic model of these platforms relies on subsidised hardware distribution to drive market penetration, build a ~70m-100m+ unit install base that can then be commercialised sufficiently from software sales to recoup.

Nintendo is now in a position where SW2 has shot the consumer value proposition for SW1 (forcing HW & SW sales to taper), where they're now trying to grow the new platform, with much higher (& rising) hardware costs they can't subsidise (killing scope of hitting the ~70m-100m install base target), with no existing install base to generate sufficient revenue for SW2 games, to even recoup on SW spend, let alone on underlying HW lifetime costs. Their overall business break-even is rapidly drifting further and further away and there's fuck all they can do about it (e.g. slashing HW costs might increase sales, but it will destroy margins, increase losses and exacerbate the break-even problem).

There is no world where the executives at Sony look at the situation Nintendo is currently in and say "Yep... We want to do that too.", especially when it goes entirely against their fiduciary responsibilities to shareholders to deliver value on their investments into the business; it would literally constitute grounds for legal action to get the CEO ousted.

Sony will take advantage of this by continuing to delay PS6 (there's no-one to try to hurry to compete against, there are no more "generational leaps" that new hardware can offer, whether $5,999 PCs or Helix, given the level of diminishing returns in games tech today), focus on expanding their PS5 software library, expanding digital services (a smart area to focus on if you need to grow additional revenue streams whilst mitigating issues with hardware supply chain costs), raking in more and more sales and growing their PS5 install base further (if they can ever figure out how to cut BOM costs, to allow them to slash retail prices).
 
I have a hard time imagine a PS6 successor while after 6 years Sony still hasn't figured out how to cool the PS5 without relying on esoteric liquid metal.
This is actually a very silly and ignorant take.
But the lack of bandwidth makes it pretty likely. There really isn't much of a reason to push the clocks like they did with the PS5.
What lack of bandwidth do you speak of?
The authoritative commentary in this thread is hilarious.

There is no PS6, no confirmed specs, no clarity on timeline.

Sony will not ship this thing anytime soon, Especially when Nintendo's share price is dying because their business is massively exposed, with a multi-billion dollar investment in R&D, manufacture & stockpiling for SW2, that walked right into a supply chain cost crisis.

The entire economic model of these platforms relies on subsidised hardware distribution to drive market penetration, build a ~70m-100m+ unit install base that can then be commercialised sufficiently from software sales to recoup.

Nintendo is now in a position where SW2 has shot the consumer value proposition for SW1 (forcing HW & SW sales to taper), where they're now trying to grow the new platform, with much higher (& rising) hardware costs they can't subsidise (killing scope of hitting the ~70m-100m install base target), with no existing install base to generate sufficient revenue for SW2 games, to even recoup on SW spend, let alone on underlying HW lifetime costs. Their overall business break-even is rapidly drifting further and further away and there's fuck all they can do about it (e.g. slashing HW costs might increase sales, but it will destroy margins, increase losses and exacerbate the break-even problem).

There is no world where the executives at Sony look at the situation Nintendo is currently in and say "Yep... We want to do that too.", especially when it goes entirely against their fiduciary responsibilities to shareholders to deliver value on their investments into the business; it would literally constitute grounds for legal action to get the CEO ousted.

Sony will take advantage of this by continuing to delay PS6 (there's no-one to try to hurry to compete against, there are no more "generational leaps" that new hardware can offer, whether $5,999 PCs or Helix, given the level of diminishing returns in games tech today), focus on expanding their PS5 software library, expanding digital services (a smart area to focus on if you need to grow additional revenue streams whilst mitigating issues with hardware supply chain costs), raking in more and more sales and growing their PS5 install base further (if they can ever figure out how to cut BOM costs, to allow them to slash retail prices).
Ok... so let's just pretend that the second the PS6 is launched sony stops making money from the PS5 and its existing userbase.
 
Sure those leaks aren't just rumors?
Apparently there was an actual slide where AMD proposed this number to Sony during the early design phase. Assuming the legitimacy of that claim, I guess we can call it a "leak". It's meant for the GPU and not the whole system. Kepler had corroborated this number but also said this:

Question about the TDP - is that 160W number final? If so, what black magic is being done to achieve 10xRT, 100xML and 3x raster? Is that going to be an issue?

No, it's a projection and they're rarely accurate.
 
Sony will take advantage of this by continuing to delay PS6 (there's no-one to try to hurry to compete against, there are no more "generational leaps" that new hardware can offer, whether $5,999 PCs or Helix, given the level of diminishing returns in games tech today), focus on expanding their PS5 software library, expanding digital services (a smart area to focus on if you need to grow additional revenue streams whilst mitigating issues with hardware supply chain costs), raking in more and more sales and growing their PS5 install base further (if they can ever figure out how to cut BOM costs, to allow them to slash retail prices).

huh...they significantly raised the price of PS5. If anything that is going to stunt the install base now.
 
Sony will take advantage of this by continuing to delay PS6 (there's no-one to try to hurry to compete against, there are no more "generational leaps" that new hardware can offer, whether $5,999 PCs or Helix, given the level of diminishing returns in games tech today), focus on expanding their PS5 software library, expanding digital services (a smart area to focus on if you need to grow additional revenue streams whilst mitigating issues with hardware supply chain costs), raking in more and more sales and growing their PS5 install base further (if they can ever figure out how to cut BOM costs, to allow them to slash retail prices).

If anything, they might have to release the PS6 because of GDDR6 availability.
 
Decades of successful chip optimization engineering while maintaining correct timings and now we suddenly can't anymore even though modern game engines and SDKs don't require that anymore.
What are you talking about bruh?

Remember the PS4? Remember it sounding like a jet engine? Ever wondered why that was?

Or you comparing 200W+ APUs to systems that pulled around 80W+ with the PS2?

Like you don't even realize that the fact the PS5 is using liquid metal as its TIM and is whisper quiet in an attempt to keep 200W system cool and run quietly is actually a remarkable feat of engineering, but you are here advocating for what? Thermal paste, extremely large heat sinks, and fans that sound like a hair blower?

Like what are you even talking about???
 
PS5 is equal to RTX 2070 | 3060 in Raster. But the RT gap is massive. Making the perf comparison meaningless.

The key issue is RDNA2/3 Windows drivers are mediocre. Meanwhile Mesa Linux driver is 1:1 with PS5. So it makes Nvidia vs AMD comparisons tough. Because Nvidia is the opposite of AMD (great Windows, meh Linux).

You also forget PS5 has to share it's memory with CPU and OS. While on PC VRAM is just for dGPU.

The best "stand-in" for PS5 is an RX 6600XT. The best "stand-in" for PS6 is an RTX 5070 SUPER.
Raster compute raw is RTX 2070 Super and RX 6700, deal with it. Digital Foundry already tested and many Video benchmark and PC benchmark can be check right now. It already 6 years . This shouldn't be a rocket science. In terms of RT PS5 is equal to RTX 2060 Super (also tested by Digital Foundry . No PS5 is more powerful than RTX 306 . It's between RT 3060 and RTX 3060 Ti. Especially games that required more than 8 GB
PS5 GPU has to share memory with CPU is mean that way, cost effectives, flexible and optimize for gaming.
 
I entered the thread and we already have:

- PS5 with fake clock speed, it's 2GHz
- Liquid Metal is bad and not a high-performance solution

Then when we say that these guys are frustrated with the PlayStation, they think it's "Sony defense team."
PlayStation detractors are truly sick.

People focused on what Cerny said publicly:
-10% Power ~ low single digit perf loss.

But what he said privately was the more relevant one:
-27% Power at 2.0 GHz vs 2.23 GHz. (-10% clock = -27% power)

Remember that the PS5 was supposed to be 2.0 GHz to begin with. And you realize 2.23 GHz is more a boost mode that requires you to throttle CPU below 3.2 GHz and for CPU load to not be heavy.

Unless one argues that PS5 games are less optimized than Proton games running on Linux Mesa driver, it's inescapable to think of the PS5's GPU runs at 2.0 GHz and thereabouts.

(Note this doesn't change much for the comparison against XSX because Series X has a weaker GPU frontend).

We can continue in DMs if you want to litigate this. This isn't the thread for it.
This retarded crap again?
 
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My whole premise for advocating for a reduced RAM in PS6 is that it's not necessary and that 20GB PS6 can achieve what an RTX 5080 16GB can achieve.

But if LLM is really on the cards for next-gen and an extra 10GB is necessary for that as opposed to just being an anti-PC marketing shock, then by all means, Sony should do it. I want new experiences for next-gen.

But going back to your previous suggestion of a PS6s with power in between PS6 handheld and Orion PS6, I don't think that would be worth it considering Orion APU is already very conservative at only 160W and estimated to cost $110. You won't get anymore meaningful savings there if you pair it with another 30GB VRAM because it is "necessary".

PS6 handheld with cheap ass low watt LPDDR RAM sounds the best way forward for a cheap next-gen console. And even beyond PS6, LPDDR paired with low watt apu sounds the best way forward for an entry level playstation.

That is, of course, if we truly need this much amount of RAM.
An RTX 5080 with 16GB of memory may meet the compute requirements for next gen gaming but it doesnt meet the memory requirements. I dont think devs will be happy with 20GB of memory, not even 24GB of memory.
 
PS5 on Linux proving PS5 GPU running at 2.0 GHz is a new thingy. But this isn't the thread for it.
What driver does Linux use on the PS5?
Is it the same one Sony uses to run games?

You don't understand anything about technology.... I can clearly see that because I have a scientific basis/fundamentals equal to or superior to any engineer from Intel, AMD, Sony, Microsoft, etc.

Linux on the PS5 proves absolutely nothing.

My router is a Ubiquiti and runs Edge OS, which has hardware acceleration for encryption.
I installed OpenWRT and it doesn't have hardware encryption.
Is this a problem with the OpenWRT driver, or did Ubiquiti lie about my router having hardware acceleration?
 
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What driver does Linux use on the PS5?
Is it the same one Sony uses to run games?

You don't understand anything about technology.... I can clearly see that because I have a scientific basis/fundamentals equal to or superior to any engineer from Intel, AMD, Sony, Microsoft, etc.

Linux on the PS5 proves absolutely nothing.

My router is a Ubiquiti and runs Edge OS, which has hardware acceleration for encryption.
I installed OpenWRT and it doesn't have hardware encryption.
Is this a problem with the OpenWRT driver, or did Ubiquiti lie about my router having hardware acceleration?
You can view the findings right here:



Locked 2Ghz or enabling boost mode gives about 1-2fps difference. We also know from Mark Cerny himself that the average clock during gaming on the PS5 is 2170 Mhz.

The Linux installation on the PS5 is probably not using the same driver as Sony, considering the OS differences. It's also not even fully mature or optimized, it's just a series of patches for Ubuntu.
 
The Linux installation on the PS5 is probably not using the same driver as Sony, considering the OS differences. It's also not even fully mature or optimized, it's just a series of patches for Ubuntu.

So I'm going to install Linux on my PC and think it doesn't use the Windows driver?

Do you realize that the PS5's GPU is entirely controlled by power consumption?
And that a PC's GPU is controlled by temperature?
 
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You can view the findings right here:



Locked 2Ghz or enabling boost mode gives about 1-2fps difference. We also know from Mark Cerny himself that the average clock during gaming on the PS5 is 2170 Mhz.

The Linux installation on the PS5 is probably not using the same driver as Sony, considering the OS differences. It's also not even fully mature or optimized, it's just a series of patches for Ubuntu.

The point is the findings there do not mean shit. It means absolutely nothing. Its not a "hey, look at how the PS5 APU really performs" argument but a "hey, look how Linux currently runs on the PS5 APU".

Unless you are running that thing exactly how the PS5 runs it using Sony's drivers, then it does not mean anything at all. If anything the fact that it runs as well as it does in what is no doubt an unoptimized mess speaks volumes.
 
What driver does Linux use on the PS5?
It uses the mesa open source driver. And it runs identically to PS5 while at 2.0 GHz.

Now you can argue that the mesa driver is better than the Sony driver, but then that's arguing Console optimization magic is actually negative and PC runs faster.

You are also ignoring the fact PS5 Linux can't hold 3.5 | 2.23 GHz without thermal throttling. It's not simply that it runs identically to 2.0 GHz Linux PS5, but also that PS5 can't maintain 2.23+3.5 on Linux with maxed fans.

But again, you want to argue about this, shoot a DM. This isn't the thread for it.
 
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An RTX 5080 with 16GB of memory may meet the compute requirements for next gen gaming but it doesnt meet the memory requirements. I dont think devs will be happy with 20GB of memory, not even 24GB of memory.
PS6 needs that next gen jump and it can't be down to having a visual edge over PS5, not when you charge close to 1000€ for it.

Having a native LLM implementation could do wonders for interacting with NPCs, player immersion and world building, or sports games that have genuinely dynamic commentary that never repeats - this is the type of next gen advancement people could get excited about and consider investing in such a system despite its high price.

LLMs are very memory-heavy and since this is a console that would last until mid 30s, Sony should not tamper with reduced RAM.
Question though. How do you suppose that extra RAM will be put to good use with LLM when PS5 can't handle it and cross-gen is here to stay for long. You don't reckon devs won't bother because their games have to run on PS5 too? Unless they decide it's okay to have two different games and experience.

I guess if LLM is truly in the cards for next-gen then PS6 game will truly feel different from its PS5 counter part, on top of realistic lighting with path tracing. PS5 version of games will feel not only inferior graphically, but almost feel like a different game.
 
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