Does anyone have the patience to calculate the half-life on this?
This is a text based chart provided by Grok if Bungie does nothing to stem the bleed:
Day 0 (Launch peak): ################################################## 83,000
Day 5: ########################################### 71,424
Day 10: ##################################### 61,463
Day 15: ############################### 52,891
Day 20: ########################### 45,515
Day 25: ####################### 39,167
Day 30 (~Apr 5–7 now): #################### 33,705
Day 35: ################# 29,004
Day 40: ############### 24,959
Day 45: ############ 21,478
Day 50: ########### 18,483
Day 55: ######### 15,905
Day 60 (early June): ######## 13,687
Day 70: ###### 10,135
Day 80: ##### 7,505
Day 90 (early July): #### 5,558
Day 100: ### 4,116
Day 110: ## 3,048
Day 120: ## 2,257
No chance that will remain as Bungie will definitely make a move. They will not do their PvE rotation while Marathon dies, but I'm not sure if they can make changes at the level needed in time.
There is also the possibility there is a core audience underneath that will never bleed. Grok warned, "Exponential models can overestimate long-term bleed because retention often plateaus at a "core" audience (highly engaged players who stick around for the gameplay loop)." As mentioned, Season 2 and the first major patch are going to be interesting to check for spikes.