Negotiator101
Member
It's tracking the lowest ever for today right? It's not even 20,000 currently it might not reach 30,000 peak today which only 4: weeks out is crazy bad.
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Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!
Marathon approaching 15k CCU low (sponsored by coachmcguirk91 - still having a blast)
GermanZepp
Member
Even the roadmap is horrible to look at, damnAssuming the road map holds true and no big unknown things happen like F2P or a secret PvE mode happens, nothing major is going on till June Season 2 wipe and new nighttime dire marsh map.
So for next 2 months till June, it's a bunch of gameplay tweaks (which included their adjusted matahmaking algorithm) and that's kind of it.
Sony/Bungie IMO will do something big. There's no way for 2 months they let the CCUs keep trending down hoping the June update majorly boosts it back up. Maybe PvE mode is too hard to implement well, so probably 50% off deals or F2P week or something. Maybe even F2P for all in May. Or as a first step, make it a sub plan game on PS+ and Xbox (right there you got 100M potential gamers to download it to test it out and some may stick with it). Time it with upcoming June update.
Also add in Ranked mode for all 24/7. No ifs, ands or buts. This would make any current weak gamers and any newbies join in from above feel better playing against each other and not get wiped out by vets. The game doesnt have enough gamers like a COD game with shitloads of gamers in old games with trashy unranked mode where everyone jumps into the pool and every team is a mish mash of good and weak gamers balancing each other off anyway.
GermanZepp
Member
Too much knitting and cooking classes i presume.
Dr. Samuel Hayden
Member
This is the company that takes 6 months - a year to fix basic bugs in Destiny. It doesn't surprise me at all. They are a glacially slow, completely inefficient company and getting anything substantial out of them is like pulling teeth.
OuterLimits
Member
Those delayed reviews were literally:
9/10 from both ign and pc gamer, 5/5 from gerstman
Even paid off sellout professional journos cant do shit when this titanic is sinking
Yep, the subreddit is excited about reviews and dreaming of GOTY awards now. Meanwhile the player numbers keep steadily dropping.
I actually think Marathon is a quality game unlike Highguard and Concord but it won't survive if it remains so sweaty and hostile to new players. Those on reddit who do enjoy the game immensely but also make this point get down voted into hell.
Bungie is in a bit of a conundrum though. Too much change will likely irritate their very vocal niche fanbase.
Hollywood Hitman
Gold Member
If bungie announced d3, I'd have less disdain for marathon and that is the honest truth. I mean I don't understand bungie in general because even if marathon just stays afloat this isn't going to be it for their games for the next 10 years, there has to be another big game coming?
I know something about gummy bears as it's project name but bungie absolutely needs a boon with something else on the way.
I know something about gummy bears as it's project name but bungie absolutely needs a boon with something else on the way.
PeteBull
Member
Its extremly niche, hell well known back in niche game from back in 2015 like bloodborn sold 9,3m copies( actually top15 bestselling ps4 game https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PlayStation_4_video_games ) and marathon is so much worse even if we are extremly generous and assume 1,2m copies sold.
Personally i think its terrible game(being gaas/extraction shooter h8er) but i understand/acknowledge if some1 likes/enjoys is so i dont question it, what i keep on questioning is that false premise game is by any means succesful, its terrible flop no matter how we measure it, copies sold, ccu, engagement, profit vs games budget, math is simply not mathing here no matter how we try to look at it
I would even argue it would be less of a flop if it was singleplayer one and done buy, coz then at least it would be priced fully at 70$ and bungie devteam didnt have to babysit it after launch(maybe few weeks of 1-2-3 updates with bugfixing/patching rough edges and thats it), instead coz of its gaas nature for game to be alive(aka not only online in 4ever zombie state of no updates) it requires substantial army of devs to keep working on it, and guess what those are western based veteran AAA studio devs, in other words those mofos have high salaries which means its constant drain on the devteam, and keeps game in greater and greater unprofitability hole.
The Mad Draklor
Member
Yes, today is the first time the game failed to reach 20K CCU by 16:00 UTC.
Fake
Member
DEI
Zacfoldor
Gold Member
I wrote a post and it was okay but nobody would read it because it just is boring so I added it to gemini and told them to make it exciting and easy to read. So here is my AI slop on this:
It is March 2026, and Marathon's status as Bungie's "next big thing" is looking more like a "next big headache." Despite some genuinely tight gunplay, the game is caught in a pincer movement between its own niche design and a community that has largely branded it as "impenetrable."
Here is why Marathon is currently red-lining on the struggle meter.
While Bungie's actual narrative—delivered through glitch-logs and environmental storytelling—is relatively digestible, the online community has spread a belief that Marathon is "too sweaty" for human life. * The Perception: Social media and Reddit are flooded with "Don't play solo" warnings and clips of high-tier squads "gatekeeping" extraction zones.
The "Sweaty" Reputation Trap
- The Result: Even if the game is mechanically fair, the reputation of extreme difficulty scares off casual gamers before they even download it. It has been labeled a "job" rather than a game, creating a psychological barrier that the marketing team hasn't been able to break.
Gameplay Friction & "The Weekend Problem"
The Cryo Archive Debacle
The Cryo Archive is only open on weekends, and to be blunt, the community consensus is that Cryo Archive sucks.
- The Logic: Bungie tried to funnel players into a specific window to keep the "endgame" populated.
- The Reality: It makes the game feel unavailable for anyone with a life. If you can't play Friday to Sunday, you're locked out of the most meaningful progression, leading to a feeling that the game "isn't for you."
Ranked Matchmaking & Resets
Ranked matchmaking is currently a disaster. Because of low player counts, the system often prioritizes speed over skill, throwing "grey-gear" rookies into the meat grinder with Diamond-rank veterans. This is compounded by the frequent progress resets (seasonal wipes) that delete gear and faction standing. For a non-hardcore player, losing everything every few months makes the "grind" feel utterly pointless.
The "Bungie Tax" and Reputation Stains
The Shadow of Destiny 2
The hatred based on Destiny 2's monetization history is a heavy anchor. Players walked in expecting "Bungie-style" overpricing, and their cynicism was rewarded when they saw the launch shop.
- The Shop: Paradoxically, there is not enough good stuff in the shop to justify the prices. The minimalist aesthetic is stylish, but it hasn't produced the "must-have" cosmetics needed to fund a massive live-service studio.
The Early Art Theft Scandal
The 2025 controversy regarding the theft of art from independent artist "Antireal" (Fern Hook) remains a major talking point. Even though the matter was settled, it cemented a narrative that the game's development was chaotic and lacked original creative leadership, making players hesitant to invest in a project that seemed "morally compromised" from the jump.
The Market & The Sony Civil War
Niche Genre, High Competition
The extraction shooter genre is inherently niche, and Marathon is facing lots of competition from Arc Raiders and Tarkov. Without a massive casual influx, the game has entered a death spiral: low player counts lead to longer wait times, which lead to even lower player counts.
The Sony Friction
Sony's internal politics are working against the game. There is a growing hatred for the GaaS (Games as a Service) movement within Sony's own prestige studios (like Naughty Dog or Santa Monica), leading to a lack of institutional support.
- PC vs. Console: PC gamers resent Sony for slowing down single-player ports, yet Marathon's player base is overwhelmingly on PC.
- Funding Risk: As Sony refocuses on console hardware to drive PS5 Pro/PS6 sales, they may not continue to fund a game where 70% of the audience is on Steam, especially when the profit ceiling for a niche shooter is so much lower than a blockbuster.
Do you think the "sweaty" label is a death sentence for an extraction shooter, or can a few "casual-friendly" patches actually save the player count?
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Pop
Member
Theres a lot of wasted dev cost in this industry
Shubh_C63
Member
I bet just a lame teaser trailer announcement for Destiny 3 will get people back to playing D2, atleast for a week.
They HAVE to be working on it so best time to announce would be along next roadmap, whenever the hell it is coming.
StreetsofBeige
Member
Ah thanks. that probably explains the odd numbers this morning. Peak USA time will be fine to compare. But morning and midday would be off compared to last week, but day vs yesterday will be apples to apples starting tomorrow.
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Negotiator101
Member
Is this likely to break 30,000 peak? It's looking low currently.
StreetsofBeige
Member
As Toytown mentioned, the midday comparison numbers might be off as Europe had hour moved forward (had to google it).
To make it easy, best to wait to till USA peak at 10-11 pm as that number will be the ultimate peak anyway.
But no doubt it's down a lot as usual week over week. It's still down no matter if an hourly comparison is shifted an hour.
Yes. It should blow by 30k today. As mentioned above it might be weird being off an hour during pre-USA peak, but given USA peak isnt till around 10 pm it should blow past the current 25k as I type. Eyeballing it, not sure. Maybe 34k.
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Roman Empire
Member
Another 2k loss today. Marathon CAN'T KEEP THIS TREND.
Remember how Bungie were losing their heads back when Destiny 2 released and they said the studio had a month or so of closing doors if they didn't get the player bump with Forsaken. There are 2 months until season 1 ends. THIS IS DIRE.
Remember how Bungie were losing their heads back when Destiny 2 released and they said the studio had a month or so of closing doors if they didn't get the player bump with Forsaken. There are 2 months until season 1 ends. THIS IS DIRE.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
The AI is kind of funny 
that one is just sad 
Nose ring BTW
StreetsofBeige
Member
Looks like Europe maxed out. With their 1 hour forward that happened yesterday, it's now 10:30 pm in UK and 11:30 pm in central Europe.
It's at 27k now. It's now up to USA to pull up the number rest of day where peak number will be somewhere around 10-11 pm est.
Given weekdays last week, you get about +6-7k from now till USA peak time. So on target for around a 33-34k peak.
It's at 27k now. It's now up to USA to pull up the number rest of day where peak number will be somewhere around 10-11 pm est.
Given weekdays last week, you get about +6-7k from now till USA peak time. So on target for around a 33-34k peak.
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ChorizoPicozo
Member
Another fun chart....Negative reviews have increased since launch.
calico
Member
That's just where it shows less detail for older data.What happened to Marathon lately?
StreetsofBeige
Member
Looks like peak was hit at 34.1k. Hey, I was right. Calico was too.
Looks like the general methodology I use held up after all after a lousy Sunday and morning down trend looking worse than usual (Europe hour forward was probably part of it or simply Asian region trending hours much worse than US/Europe). The usual trend for past two weeks are Sun to Mon -14%, and week over week days usually about -20% (cryo days excluded). The final results for third full week are:
Compared to yesterday (Mon vs Sun): 34.1k vs 39.9k (-5.8k or -14% again!)
Mon vs Mon: 34.1k vs 44.4k (-10.3k or -23% which is at the worse end of the range)
Another week over week drop of about 10k. As for late night, last night it bottomed at 11.3k. Using a ballpark ratio where weekday lows are usually a touch worse than a 3:1 ratio, tonight's low should be about 10k - 10.5k. There is possibility it dips below 10k if Asian/Aussie regional hours get pissed and drop off faster than US/Europe.
Make note the game has another weekly maintenance down time. It starts at 8 am est tomorrow for 3-4 hours. So normal gaming CCU wont be till probably the afternoon when gamers got time to log back in.
Called this weeks ago too! lol
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Conflict NZ
Member
It truly is impressive how accurately the drops can be predicted at this point.
StreetsofBeige
Member
Forecasting is actually easy as long as something trends steady. The only curveballs are cryo days which were unknowns. And if any regional drops are worse than others making those hourly peaks odd (ie. Asia region might be tanking more). But the USA peak rules the top number and has been the most steady. But the game has incredibly predictable weekday/weekend/hourly trends within a small variance.
All any of us are doing are just starting at some line graphs and numbers with only 3.5 weeks of data and make some estimates for fun. You dont need any crazy regression analysis software or anything which makes it even better!
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OuterLimits
Member
Aporeciate you posting the numbers for us. Do you think sub 10k at the low point tomorrow night or the day after is likely?
Plague Doctor
Member
Here's an odd question for you
StreetsofBeige
. What rough number milestone do you think is the undeniable critical zone? Like the number it hits where the press begins to get real alarmist and begin to write articles? (Example "If it hits X number for Y parameter, things are now undeniably dire to even those being generous to the game)What is that threshhold number and according to projections (and barring any curve balls) when could it be hit?
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StreetsofBeige
Member
Last night it bottomed at 11.3k, so it should drop below that. May or may not break below 10k. But assuming the game keeps trending down 5% per weekday this week it should be below 10k this week. Could be today or tomorrow.
I have no idea what the threshold CCU is where it finds a stable core following! Some games go down the tubes to 100, while some hold at 1,000s or 10,000s. This game should hit 30k peak his week. Possibly Weds. Then it may hold during cryo days. Then a big drop Monday.Here's an odd question for you
What is that threshhold number/metric and according to projections (and barring any curve balls) when could it be hit?
But alarm bells should already be now for Sony/Bungie. Not only is everything tanking, but unless they got some uber news to prop it up, the game has 2 months of dead time of minor tweaks and stuff till June Season 2 map drop and new runner class.
If I was a gamer on the fence about it, I wouldnt bother at all buying it. Game is trending down, and unless some big news happens next few months to prop up users when Season 2 comes, it'll keep going down. Especially alarming if someone lives in a region that already has trouble matchmaking where the lobbies have to clump users from far away places. All that does is get lag or gamers in the game who dont even speak the same language. If someone is that interested, wait for F2P. If someone wanted to get in and get some gaming out of it, best time was around launch.
But the game keeps going down with ZERO signs of leveling off, so there's more to go. The second it starts having week over week drops changing from -20%-ish to -15% to -10% etc... then it can be estimated when and how much of a support level is. The game even had a -23% week over week rate, which is at the high end. So the decline rate isnt even even getting better. The game has enough following to have gamers, so it wont be a Highguard going to 300 CCU. But even for trainwrecks like that it got to a point those drops did level off. It's just that it didnt level off till it hit less than 500 and it maintained around 300 to the end (and then spiked to 700 I think when the game was being shut down as gamers got their last licks in the final days!).
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Conflict NZ
Member
In addition to whatHere's an odd question for you
What is that threshhold number and according to projections (and barring any curve balls) when could it be hit?
StreetsofBeige
has written, the sales of the game also seem to have tanked. All the estimate sites on Steam have it as selling ~30K copies in the last week, and if consoles are still 30% of the base (and Marathon's position on PSN and Xbox charts make that a generous assumption at this point) that means only ~42K copies were sold in the last week.So we went from 1.2 Million sales as of last week to 1.24 this week. The legs on retail sales have absolutely collapsed.
This is the point where shifting to making money off MTX would be critical, however their player retention is also collapsing and the cosmetics on the store are limited and even the fans say they're awful.
I don't know what they do from here, it's dire.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
This is why I think going f2p will not happen (if Sony has some say on it). There is simply not interest in the game
CrustyBritches
Gold Member
Div2 6,900, Marathon 10,700. So close!
Conflict NZ
Member
Genuinely might be under 10K for the 10UTC hour before maintenance begins.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
All you Marathon haters run away in fear. You've had your time. It's our time now!
cormack12
Gold Member
First two lines:
Load up on guns, bring your friends.
It's fun to lose and to pretend.
Marathon is gonna get completely changed and you will salute me as your god
Men_in_Boxes
and appreciate my prophecy.
PvE inbound!!!
Load up on guns, bring your friends.
It's fun to lose and to pretend.
Marathon is gonna get completely changed and you will salute me as your god
Men_in_Boxes
and appreciate my prophecy.PvE inbound!!!
StreetsofBeige
Member
That's why they got to do that fast. Not wait for CCU to drop more.
Oh by the way, CCU is about 10,200. Probably won't drop under 10k as it should be rebounding by now. But should late night tonight.
Game will probably drop the usual -5% to about 32k peak today. The low should scrape around 9.5k to 10k.
Hey I was right. Said it'd hit 10-10.5k!
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Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
No! It is you, who will worship me!First two lines:
Load up on guns, bring your friends.
It's fun to lose and to pretend.
Marathon is gonna get completely changed and you will salute me as your god
PvE inbound!!!
SBMM inbound!! The skill gap will be addressed!!
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
StreetsofBeige
Member
Unless they got some big news to prop it up, the next meaningful content comes June with a new map and class.
So this game is going to linger around for 2 months relying on rebalancing tweaks every couple weeks?
That's a bold plan. If that's all they got, the peak CCU will probably be 5k by then leaving only the most hardcore gamers left.
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
Its going to be insanely hard for this game to do well with just a new map and class
Its in trouble and many saw it coming and I don't blame anyone who enjoys it as I enjoy some lesser loved titles
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
For a few days, people will check it out and move on
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