• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

[Opinion] April 2023 is the beginning of the end for Xbox as we know it.

Status
Not open for further replies.

Banjo64

cumsessed
Xbox is an albatross around the neck of Game Pass though. I will say that.

Imagine if Netflix, Apple TV and Disney Plus were all primarily used on their own arbitrary hardware. They’d have a fraction of the user base.

If Microsoft want Game Pass to be the Netflix of video games, it needs to be on every gaming device. How do you make Sony and Nintendo accept Game Pass on their systems? I don’t think there’s any terms they accept that include Microsoft still producing Xbox consoles. Speculative, but I think Game Pass on PC, PS and Switch hits 50m subs easily.

As it stands, Game Pass will probably stay where it is. Will MS be happy with that? Maybe, maybe not.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
It is not entirely Xbox fault. AMD tech do not go as high as Nvidia do and they were afraid of being beaten by Sony so they HAD to do what they had done in making the Series X so costly to make. The Series S has the opposite problem: they have to be at a certain point tech wise relative to the Series X (and the PS5) and do it cheap enough regardess of the price too. One console can't be too weak, the other can't be too costly. So they had to loose money on the two consoles, limiting the economies of scale in the process too. This is a mess and some people even speculated that they can't control how many they make each of those consoles separatly( as in their wafers do both consoles at the same time for example)

I would love for that to happen but it would mean the end of having a reasonable price. A Xbox Series X with Windows, Steam... would cost how much in 2020? 750? 800? 999? How many people would be willing to pay for that? The advantage would be the option to go crazy with a 1000$ or 2000$ PC day one. But I do not see Microsoft trying that in the future, sadly. And this would be the end of the hopes of having ten of millions of sales like older Xbox generations.
But PS5 is just as powerful, offers 2x faster storage, allows VR gaming, and the DE can be purchased for just $399.

I think the Series X and S are just poorly designed because they shouldn't have been this expensive to make.
 

feynoob

Member
The situation hasn't changed today either.

CYCp7HH.jpg
MS had a great quarter, despite this purchase.
.

MS haven't lost anything on this deal. It would have been disaster had they used their stock options though. But since it's hand on cash, it's good for investor's. That means MS can use that money to invest on other sectors.

The only thing MS will lose is the 3b breakout fee.

As for Xbox investment, 10b is enough for game pass content and small studios.

The only issue however is the mobile market, which MS is chasing after. Don't know how they fix that issue.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
There's a lot of fair points made by the OP but he forgot one thing and that's that XBOX isn't MS's primary source of revenue and they have near infinite money so they can stay in the game even if they're losing money hand over fist right now. They're in it for the long run.
They sure can and certainly have been.

But how I'm thinking is that they have been taking these losses because they were hopeful that they would reap profits later once Xbox captures lots of market share using this loss-leader strategy. But things haven't worked out well, and I'm guessing that Microsoft will realize that Xbox is not going to increase its market share and profitability.

If and when that happens, they can cut Xbox.
 

feynoob

Member
Xbox is an albatross around the neck of Game Pass though. I will say that.

Imagine if Netflix, Apple TV and Disney Plus were all primarily used on their own arbitrary hardware. They’d have a fraction of the user base.

If Microsoft want Game Pass to be the Netflix of video games, it needs to be on every gaming device. How do you make Sony and Nintendo accept Game Pass on their systems? I don’t think there’s any terms they accept that include Microsoft still producing Xbox consoles. Speculative, but I think Game Pass on PC, PS and Switch hits 50m subs easily.

As it stands, Game Pass will probably stay where it is. Will MS be happy with that? Maybe, maybe not.
Gamepass is the future of xcloud, which MS is after.
Just like Netflix, MS has xcloud for cloud streaming. Having a subscription content which you can stream through cloud without a system is going to be huge in the future, just like movie streaming in the past.

Xbox is currently the footsteps for that.
 

Dr. Claus

Vincit qui se vincit
It's clickbait, because we don't know what Xbox has in store.

Give it 2-3 years and post this again. By that time, Xbox will have issues, if they don't address any of your concerns.

As of now, there is time. And anything can happen during these times.

All you need to look at is Bethesda acquisition before and after for Xbox.

Here is what Xbox has in store:

Fucking nothing.

We have been promised games for years now. Promised that they will do better. What do we get? Trash GAAS games, glorified expansions sold for full price, famous franchises being run into the ground, and pushing DRM that wasn't' removed until two years after the new consoles launched.

If all MS can do to "compete" is buy out publishers that they can run into the ground with the lack of quality control, then they can disappear and we would be better off.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
Gamepass is the future of xcloud, which MS is after.
Just like Netflix, MS has xcloud for cloud streaming. Having a subscription content which you can stream through cloud without a system is going to be huge in the future, just like movie streaming in the past.

Xbox is currently the footsteps for that.
XCloud is wank and always will be. Streaming will never work for input based entertainment for as long as you and I are alive.

Never mind the fact that console based games are absolute ass on your phone using xCloud - there’s about 12 touch buttons on a tiny arse screen.

It’s bullshit.
 

feynoob

Member
Here is what Xbox has in store:

Fucking nothing.

We have been promised games for years now. Promised that they will do better. What do we get? Trash GAAS games, glorified expansions sold for full price, famous franchises being run into the ground, and pushing DRM that wasn't' removed until two years after the new consoles launched.

If all MS can do to "compete" is buy out publishers that they can run into the ground with the lack of quality control, then they can disappear and we would be better off.
Let me you ask you this, what are the current studios working on? Are all those nothing? Did they disappear to nothing?

We keep saying how Xbox have nothing, but nobody's is paying attention to all the games that are in the work.

Things take time. You may not like the slow speed, but those games will be out when they are ready.
 

Razvedka

Banned
I can't believe it either. My guess its a corporate culture / management issue resulting in the different outputs. No other way to explain it because they can afford to hire the best talent available with ease.
A-tier talent with an absolute shit management layer will nullify any of the amazing skills they have in most cases. Sometimes, they can power through it and deliver something better than what should be possible- but at the cost of burnout. Those devs will be demoralized and tired. They will depart for greener pastures.

I'd be curious to know the turnover rates.
 
MS had a great quarter, despite this purchase.
.

MS haven't lost anything on this deal. It would have been disaster had they used their stock options though. But since it's hand on cash, it's good for investor's. That means MS can use that money to invest on other sectors.

The only thing MS will lose is the 3b breakout fee.

As for Xbox investment, 10b is enough for game pass content and small studios.

The only issue however is the mobile market, which MS is chasing after. Don't know how they fix that issue.
I'm an actual MS investor and seeing MS get beat down by the regulators on a wasteful $70 billion acquisition is very good news in my book. MS should focus on what makes them big money and that's Windows, Office, and Azure. Their money burning side projects like Xbox and Surface should have been shut down long ago. I demand value in the form of dividends and share price appreciation and anything that doesn't increase those things should be axed. Shareholders should have been questioning why MS continues to pour money down the toilet on this pointless Xbox division long before they tried to blow $70 billion more on something which is getting so badly beaten in the market by 2 competitors (Sony and Nintendo) who are a tiny fraction of MS's size.
 
Last edited:

feynoob

Member
XCloud is wank and always will be. Streaming will never work for input based entertainment for as long as you and I are alive.

Never mind the fact that console based games are absolute ass on your phone using xCloud - there’s about 12 touch buttons on a tiny arse screen.

It’s bullshit.
It will work. Future is evolving at rabid pace.
Couple of years ago, movie streaming was not good. Now we have smart tvs, which contains a lot of streaming apps.

10 years from now, we will stream our games like we do with our movies/tv shows.

Stadia showed us the blueprint for future cloud gaming. If they didn't have content issue, it would have been the best service. Sucks that Google was behind that great tech.
 

feynoob

Member
I'm an actual MS investor and seeing MS get beat down by the regulators on a wasteful $70 billion acquisition is very good news in my book. MS should focus on what makes them big money and that's Windows, Office, and Azure. Their money burning side projects like Xbox and Surface should have been shut down long ago. I demand value in the form of dividends and share price appreciation and anything that doesn't increase those things should be axed. Shareholders should have been questioning why MS continues to pour money down the toilet on this pointless Xbox division long before they tried to blow $70 billion more on something which is getting so badly beaten in the market by 2 competitors (Sony and Nintendo) who are a tiny fraction of MS's size.
Games make money these days. They print out insane money. Look at epic, who is getting carried by a single game (fortnite). Mobile gaming are gold mine and prints out insane money.

You might think it's wasteful, but you will be happy if MS were printing out those money.

they already lost mobile opportunity, they won't do the same mistake for this sector.
 

Crayon

Member
It is not entirely Xbox fault. AMD tech do not go as high as Nvidia do and they were afraid of being beaten by Sony so they HAD to do what they had done in making the Series X so costly to make. The Series S has the opposite problem: they have to be at a certain point tech wise relative to the Series X (and the PS5) and do it cheap enough regardess of the price too. One console can't be too weak, the other can't be too costly. So they had to loose money on the two consoles, limiting the economies of scale in the process too. This is a mess and some people even speculated that they can't control how many they make each of those consoles separatly( as in their wafers do both consoles at the same time for example)

I don't think they had to do it. They have a way bigger chip that apparently costs a bunch more money and nothing to show for it. All for 12>10? Another bad choice. It's almost like they operate on fanclub logic.

With the old x1x, they proved that you can sell a $500 console if the user can get some discernable result for their money. Here, from the consumer perspective, they are the same price and offering the same performance. Only internet dwellers value the bragging rights of 12 v 10. If Sony went up to the edge of diminishing returns for the ps5's bom, ms pushed right past that, possibly with an outright inferior plan.

Now they are taking a fat bath on a console who's claim to fame is that you don't have to buy games. :/ Like yeah, I want a subsidized $700-to-make console that pushes the performance but you don't get that here. You get the same performance, same price alternative and ms foots the very big bill for nothing more than console war ammo.

There must have been some other way to get the marketing of the technology right without going for the teraflop number but again, forum-like logic apparently dictates that if they show up with a lower number it's all out the window. Seems crazy to me.

I had heard these stats but I didn't realize they came out of sworn statements from the companies as Heisenberg pointed out to me a few posts up. Eye opening to say the least. I may be rushing my assessment because I'm surprised, but seems like a major failure of engineering. Or marketing ahead of engineering as the case may be.
 

ungalo

Member
Beginning of the end was when Spencer took over. He's trying to make a Microsoft Gaming brand since the beginning and everything he has done was slowly oriented towards this goal. Activision-King being another step in this strategy.
 
Here is what Xbox has in store:

Fucking nothing.

We have been promised games for years now. Promised that they will do better. What do we get? Trash GAAS games, glorified expansions sold for full price, famous franchises being run into the ground, and pushing DRM that wasn't' removed until two years after the new consoles launched.

If all MS can do to "compete" is buy out publishers that they can run into the ground with the lack of quality control, then they can disappear and we would be better off.
Except the fact that Sea of Thieves is one of the best games Rare has ever made and its GaaS model is incredible. Grounded is fucking ace as well. Forza kills it with every release. You don't have to like them if they're not your cup of tea, but to say they are trash is just blatant stupidity and smells of fanboyism.
 

Daneel Elijah

Gold Member
But PS5 is just as powerful, offers 2x faster storage, allows VR gaming, and the DE can be purchased for just $399.

I think the Series X and S are just poorly designed because they shouldn't have been this expensive to make.
I am 100% in awe of Sony for all the good choices they have made for the PS5. And yes the Series X and S miss a few things compared to the PS5. But it is unfair to compare the two without accepting that they are made with different objectives in mind. Xbox team did what was asked of them. They had to make the Series S. They had to use AMD tech instead of Nvidia. They had to think of a design that could be used in server blades. They had to do this with Windows in mind too, with Direct X and Direct Storage being imposed on them. They did not had the opportunity to use others tools like Kraken like Sony did. They had not the same barganing power that Sony had with AMD relative to moving their roadmap in their advantage. Theu had to do this with a management that wanted to beat Sony on price and power, regardless of the reality of the consoles bottlenecks, and have been probably pushed, if not forced, to go for a marketable round 12 TF number, instead of choosing what is best according to them for the budget that has been allocated to them. The dual console strategy was not their choice either, and they can't be taken responsable of the added losses that have resulted of that decision.
 

feynoob

Member
I expect them to be more aggressive from here on.
They will.
Spending 68b on activision and stopping here doesn't make any sense.

I could see them take more proactive approach.

The real question however is will they keep the current management? If not, who will they hire to replace them?
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
It will work. Future is evolving at rabid pace.
Couple of years ago, movie streaming was not good. Now we have smart tvs, which contains a lot of streaming apps.

10 years from now, we will stream our games like we do with our movies/tv shows.

Stadia showed us the blueprint for future cloud gaming. If they didn't have content issue, it would have been the best service. Sucks that Google was behind that great tech.
The technology is not there and will not be there in 10 years time because it will rely on their being literally thousands more data centres in each country to reduce input lag to an acceptable level. Data can only move as fast as it can now.
 

KU_

Member
We keep saying how Xbox have nothing, but nobody's is paying attention to all the games that are in the work.

Things take time. You may not like the slow speed, but those games will be out when they are ready.
This isn’t a statement you should be making 3 years into a consoles life.
 
Last edited:

Dr. Claus

Vincit qui se vincit
Let me you ask you this, what are the current studios working on? Are all those nothing? Did they disappear to nothing?
Let's see, we have 343i continuing to fail. Gears continuing its fall into mediocrity with every subsequent release thanks to Coalition. We have Fable and Everwild that are going through development hell. Perfect Dark is going through development hell. Hellblade 2 seems to be struggling as well - can't say I am particularly excited given how piss poor the studios track records have been as of late.

We keep saying how Xbox have nothing, but nobody's is paying attention to all the games that are in the work.
People are. They are in dev hell and a few aren't coming for years at this rate.

Things take time. You may not like the slow speed, but those games will be out when they are ready.
Many of these games have been in development for 5+ years. Where there is smoke, there is fire. Xbox is a fucking inferno.

Except the fact that Sea of Thieves is one of the best games Rare has ever made and its GaaS model is incredible. Grounded is fucking ace as well. Forza kills it with every release. You don't have to like them if they're not your cup of tea, but to say they are trash is just blatant stupidity and smells of fanboyism.
Ironic, coming from you.
 
Last edited:

feynoob

Member
The technology is not there and will not be there in 10 years time because it will rely on their being literally thousands more data centres in each country to reduce input lag to an acceptable level. Data can only move as fast as it can now.
For someone who played on stadia, the technology is here. Playing on stadia almost felt like a console like quality.

For the reach, MS is expanding their data centers all around the world.

As for the lag, that would take time to fix it. It's not impossible to fix it. It's like online connection during early gaming. It will have issues right now, but it be ironed out as time goes on.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
For someone who played on stadia, the technology is here. Playing on stadia almost felt like a console like quality.
You are a sample size of one. I don’t know where your nearest data centre is, I don’t know what your tolerance for input lag is, if your ISP throttles your upload/download speed etc.

For the reach, MS is expanding their data centers all around the world.

As for the lag, that would take time to fix it. It's not impossible to fix it. It's like online connection during early gaming. It will have issues right now, but it be ironed out as time goes on.

It can only be ironed out with psychical data centres.
 

Crayon

Member
I am 100% in awe of Sony for all the good choices they have made for the PS5. And yes the Series X and S miss a few things compared to the PS5. But it is unfair to compare the two without accepting that they are made with different objectives in mind. Xbox team did what was asked of them. They had to make the Series S. They had to use AMD tech instead of Nvidia. They had to think of a design that could be used in server blades. They had to do this with Windows in mind too, with Direct X and Direct Storage being imposed on them. They did not had the opportunity to use others tools like Kraken like Sony did. They had not the same barganing power that Sony had with AMD relative to moving their roadmap in their advantage. Theu had to do this with a management that wanted to beat Sony on price and power, regardless of the reality of the consoles bottlenecks, and have been probably pushed, if not forced, to go for a marketable round 12 TF number, instead of choosing what is best according to them for the budget that has been allocated to them. The dual console strategy was not their choice either, and they can't be taken responsable of the added losses that have resulted of that decision.

I can defintely see the engineers being soft-sabotaged by management. The hardware does show competence in a lot of ways. It's just the build cost for what you actually get that betrays something very wrong in there. Seems to me atm that you are at least mostly correct on these points.
 
The only thing i can guess is that the 3 billion dollar fine microsoft might have to pay is gonna piss the board off sum’n awful.
 

feynoob

Member
Let's see, we have 343i continuing to fail. Gears continuing its fall into mediocrity with every subsequent release thanks to Coalition. We have Fable and Everwild that are going through development hell. Perfect Dark is going through development hell. Hellblade 2 seems to be struggling as well - can't say I am particularly excited given how piss poor the studios track records have been as of late.
343i fell for gaas pit.
Coalition managed to make hive buster, which was good for gears fan.
Fable isnt on development hell. That was a fake source 4 chan.
Rare is stubborn about their games, which explains why everwild is having issues.
Perfect dark is result of having different type of ego personality in 1 room. MS were foolish to hire all these big shots for that studio.
Hell blade 2 isnt struggling. That is fake.

Despite that, these games aren't cancelled. We have no idea the end result. You can't jump the gun until you see the end result.


People are. They are in dev hell and a few aren't coming for years at this rate.
Unless it's cancelled, it will be out. Starfield and redfall were delayed and they are coming out this year.


Many of these games have been in development for 5+ years. Where there is smoke, there is fire. Xbox is a fucking inferno.
False, MS bought some of those studios when they were finished with their games.

Ninja theory finished hell blade 1 and were in the process of expanding their studio for hell blade 2.

Fable studio worked on hf5, and had to make 2nd studio for fable.

Obsidian finished outer worlds before they started working on avowed. They are also working on outer worlds 2.

While development hell is not a good thing, it's hot avoidable thing. There will be issues and setbacks during production cycle. It took cyberpunk 2077 8 years to make. Gta6 is taking too long to make. The last of us 2 had long time production cycle (mainly due to expanding the studio).
Nothing is perfect.
 
Last edited:
1 Phil is going to be fired.

2 Xbox Console business is still profitable even tho it’s a compete management failure to grow it. All they needed to do is fucking release games. AAA games. Gamepass is a failure. Otherwise this steal of a deal service would be making Xbox fly off shelves. All youre getting is a fanbase that doesn’t buy games. They just wait till it hits gamepass.

3 Microsoft is going into a buying spree regardless. I actually expect Blizzard and King to still go to them. If not they will be going for another huge publisher.

4 Xbox is not going to end anytime soon. It creates brand awareness for MS, and its primed for huge growth under the right leadership. All they have to do is invest in their studios.
 
Last edited:

feynoob

Member
You are a sample size of one. I don’t know where your nearest data centre is, I don’t know what your tolerance for input lag is, if your ISP throttles your upload/download speed etc.
If early product feels like that for me, what do you think the final product will be in 10 years, when your concern for these issues are being met?
 

Daneel Elijah

Gold Member
I don't think they had to do it. They have a way bigger chip that apparently costs a bunch more money and nothing to show for it. All for 12>10? Another bad choice. It's almost like they operate on fanclub logic.

With the old x1x, they proved that you can sell a $500 console if the user can get some discernable result for their money. Here, from the consumer perspective, they are the same price and offering the same performance. Only internet dwellers value the bragging rights of 12 v 10. If Sony went up to the edge of diminishing returns for the ps5's bom, ms pushed right past that, possibly with an outright inferior plan.

Now they are taking a fat bath on a console who's claim to fame is that you don't have to buy games. :/ Like yeah, I want a subsidized $700-to-make console that pushes the performance but you don't get that here. You get the same performance, same price alternative and ms foots the very big bill for nothing more than console war ammo.

There must have been some other way to get the marketing of the technology right without going for the teraflop number but again, forum-like logic apparently dictates that if they show up with a lower number it's all out the window. Seems crazy to me.

I had heard these stats but I didn't realize they came out of sworn statements from the companies as Heisenberg pointed out to me a few posts up. Eye opening to say the least. I may be rushing my assessment because I'm surprised, but seems like a major failure of engineering. Or marketing ahead of engineering as the case may be.
Mistakes have been made, yes. And I do think that marketing was ahead of engineering in some capacity. But what else could have been done? Sony being better at designing a console is not new. And they had no choice about the 10 v 12 thing. The 360 got huge reliability issues so they could not have easily tried something like Sony did about their variable frequency. The Xbox One was weaker, had worse RAM and was more expensive, so they cannot lose out on that too. It would have been nice to imagine what Cerny answer would have been to those problems, if he was working for Xbox.
I can defintely see the engineers being soft-sabotaged by management. The hardware does show competence in a lot of ways. It's just the build cost for what you actually get that betrays something very wrong in there. Seems to me atm that you are at least mostly correct on these points.
Thanks. One of the points that makes me try to defend the team is that Microsoft has in my opinion sort of a "me too" relative to Sony marketing and choices. After Cerny presentation they presented their lead engineer and it was clear to me that that man, that we did not see publicly since, is not a man accoustumed to be under the light. I was stressed just imagining being in his place. For the build cost, they really failed to go the way AMD and Sony are going with high frequency. I think that is was because of management reticence, but I could be wrong.
 
Here is what Xbox has in store:

Fucking nothing.

We have been promised games for years now. Promised that they will do better. What do we get? Trash GAAS games, glorified expansions sold for full price, famous franchises being run into the ground, and pushing DRM that wasn't' removed until two years after the new consoles launched.

If all MS can do to "compete" is buy out publishers that they can run into the ground with the lack of quality control, then they can disappear and we would be better off.

Playground Games

1 - Fable

NInja Theory

2 - Hellblade 2
3 - Project Mara

The Coalition

4 - Next Gears
5 - Additional Project (Rumored Star Wars IP)

Undead Labs

6 - State of Decay 3

Rare

7 - Everwild
8 - Additional Project

Bethesda

9 - Starfield
10 - Elder Scrolls 6
11 - Redfall

MachineGames

12 - Indiana Jones Game

Obsidian Games

13 - The Outer Worlds 2
14 - Awoved

Turn 10

15 - Forza Motorsport Reboot

You are correct, they have nothing. You win :/
 
Last edited:
So OP is actually saying that CMA decision was wrong? Doesn’t sound pro-consumer a major player in the console market becoming a simple publisher.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
10 years.
People will have Internet everywhere.
It might not work for everyone right now, but that will not be the case after 10 years.
Low latency internet everywhere depends on physical data centres everywhere. It’s not happening in our lifetime.
 
It all comes down to just how much Xbox needs the box under the TV as their Trojan horse for their services.

I was really quite surprised they didn’t launch their streaming stick/puck. They’ve got a great cloud infrastructure, a sub service with good word of mouth, lots of IP to put into the service and can make money off of MTX through the service. On top of that they sell games on Steam.

I do think there’ll come a point where the ‘Xbox’ isn’t needed. They don’t seem to be as wedded to the box as Sony are.

I remember the Netflix Versus HBO debate. Netflix needed to become HBO before HBO became Netflix.

Sony are the traditional model that is slowly creeping towards services and subs. They’ve got great IP and some of the best studios and developer relations around.

Microsoft really just need to get that prestige and their subs and cloud enterprise will fly.
 

feynoob

Member
Low latency internet everywhere depends on physical data centres everywhere. It’s not happening in our lifetime.
Then they won't be a problem.
It will be reduced to the same feelings as consoles or closer.

The important part is having the same feelings as consoles or closer to it.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom