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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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    886
  • Poll closed .
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xHunter

Member
Dang. MS's response isn't mincing words calling out FTC

FkpuLYcWYAEaxct
Is klobrille now using his photoshop skills for a FTC statement?
 
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feynoob

Gold Member
You mean games like monster hunter which sold like 25m with the last mainline games, if ms gets some of those "smaller" pubs than sony is getting niche period.
Tomb raider sold 95m overall, and it's still small game.

What you need to account is how strong is the series, how much can each installment sells, how much players would switch to other system.

EA, take 2, and Ubisoft have insane userbase. EA with sports games, and battlefield. Take 2 with GTA and their sports games, Ubisoft and their Tom Clancy's and assasin creed games.

Each of those games currently have more userbase which can tilt the balance, if they were to become exclusive.

GTA V alone had sold 160+m sales.
 

Fabieter

Member
Tomb raider sold 95m overall, and it's still small game.

What you need to account is how strong is the series, how much can each installment sells, how much players would switch to other system.

EA, take 2, and Ubisoft have insane userbase. EA with sports games, and battlefield. Take 2 with GTA and their sports games, Ubisoft and their Tom Clancy's and assasin creed games.

Each of those games currently have more userbase which can tilt the balance, if they were to become exclusive.

GTA V alone had sold 160+m sales.

Monster hunter is a bigger game than most of ea, t2 and ubisoft games are doing. And no at one point its the sheer ammount of games taking away. Bethesda came with a big fanbase, avb will come with a big fanbase even if cod stays multi and of you add more on top of that it will get to an insane level.

I think its okay with avb but ms shouldn't be allowed to buy a single publisher in the gaming industry again. It will push sony out and I see them skipping steam one day if they got enough Power through their acquisitions.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
Tomb raider sold 95m overall, and it's still small game.

What you need to account is how strong is the series, how much can each installment sells, how much players would switch to other system.

EA, take 2, and Ubisoft have insane userbase. EA with sports games, and battlefield. Take 2 with GTA and their sports games, Ubisoft and their Tom Clancy's and assasin creed games.

Each of those games currently have more userbase which can tilt the balance, if they were to become exclusive.

GTA V alone had sold 160+m sales.
I’m probably just an old cunt but seeing Tomb Raider splashed across Xbox’s home page/Game Pass as an Xbox system exclusive would be extremely powerful.

I’m still in disbelief that they didn’t move heaven and earth to acquire the IP and studios for the paltry sum that Embracer paid.
 
How does Sony "exclusively employ this strategy" when Microsoft employs the same strategy?
That’s what Microsoft’s arguing though that everyone of the manufactures do that including them. So why’s the FTC or any regulators looking at Sony’s complaints like they don’t do it and it’s Microsoft that’s going to lock everyone out of content. So again thanks for making the point they all do it.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
Monster hunter is a bigger game than most of ea, t2 and ubisoft games are doing.
We will take Capcom of the list then.

And no at one point its the sheer ammount of games taking away. Bethesda came with a big fanbase,
Bethesda big fan base doesn't tilt the scale. EU determined that, as there is no foreclosures hypothetically, if those games were to made exclusively.
avb will come with a big fanbase even if cod stays multi and of you add more on top of that it will get to an insane level.
It's why this deal is getting troubles. COD, warzone, overwatch are all big games with big fanbase. Making that exclusive would seriously harm the balance.

I think its okay with avb but ms shouldn't be allowed to buy a single publisher in the gaming industry again. It will push sony out and I see them skipping steam one day if they got enough Power through their acquisitions
There are tons of small publishers out there, like CD projekt red. Publishers like that are within the limit.

We can make a case for square enix.
Sega at this stage is struggling with relevance. There is a chance there for them to be acquired.
Konami is in the brink of exiting the market.
 

gothmog

Gold Member
That is corporate for you.
The FTC rushed this process, and allowed MS to get the upper hand.

CMA as far as we know, is the only winner from this debate. Their approach is working nicely, and presented real issues from this deal.

Yet, they still allowed a fair process, and hearing from everyone.
Microsoft has always been playing the poor, old, third place Xbox card. It didn't work before they recommended the block and I don't see how repeating it fixes it now.

The burden of proof here is pretty simple: all the FTC has to show is "reasonable probability" that there will be anti-competitive effects from the merger. That isn't as high of a bar as people seem to think. At the end of the day all they have to do is basically prove that it is better to not allow this deal than to allow it. I think they presented a decent case and yet Microsoft is still banging the last place drum.

The only wild card in this is the lobbying. Kahn got the job because of promises to police big tech. These companies spend ungodly amounts of money lobbying. Brad Smith is well connected as well. They know its going to be an uphill battle. They also know that Microsoft is notorious for astroturfing and FUD.

This is all drama to see who blinks first. It's kinda funny how strong people think the Xbox strategy is when Microsoft has been the only one upping the deals here to get it done.
 

Fabieter

Member
We will take Capcom of the list then.


Bethesda big fan base doesn't tilt the scale. EU determined that, as there is no foreclosures hypothetically, if those games were to made exclusively.

It's why this deal is getting troubles. COD, warzone, overwatch are all big games with big fanbase. Making that exclusive would seriously harm the balance.


There are tons of small publishers out there, like CD projekt red. Publishers like that are within the limit.

We can make a case for square enix.
Sega at this stage is struggling with relevance. There is a chance there for them to be acquired.
Konami is in the brink of exiting the market.

I give up with this acquisition cheerleading. I hope this industry will be fun as long as possible before I will go full retro. Its insane that people won't see the impact of all of this longterm.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
I give up with this acquisition cheerleading. I hope this industry will be fun as long as possible before I will go full retro. Its insane that people won't see the impact of all of this longterm.
We see the impact. MS isnt the only one out there.

There is tencent, Sony, google, Amazon, facebook, and Embracer. Then there are hidden people like Saudia arabia people who bough SNK.

IF this deal gets approved, those people would spend their money. That is the risk of acquision like this.
 

Topher

Gold Member
That’s what Microsoft’s arguing though that everyone of the manufactures do that including them. So why’s the FTC or any regulators looking at Sony’s complaints like they don’t do it and it’s Microsoft that’s going to lock everyone out of content. So again thanks for making the point they all do it.

Microsoft isn't saying they are engaging in this at all. They are pointing out Sony's practices and ignoring their own. That's what you said previously as well: "The point they’re making is Sony exclusively employs this strategy of always locking their competition out of content. " So we agree that is bullshit. Cool.

And I've always said "they all do it" because it is factually true.
 

Fabieter

Member
We see the impact. MS isnt the only one out there.

There is tencent, Sony, google, Amazon, facebook, and Embracer. Then there are hidden people like Saudia arabia people who bough SNK.

IF this deal gets approved, those people would spend their money. That is the risk of acquision like this.

Sony isnt doing big acquisitions. And the rest wont have an impact on any competition. It's simply an investment while it's more to Ms doing it. Let's talk in a decade about the impact because you clearly don't see it without your emotions.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
Microsoft has always been playing the poor, old, third place Xbox card. It didn't work before they recommended the block and I don't see how repeating it fixes it now.
MS didnt care before. But now there is a profit to make, So they are getting serious now with their invesment.
If ms did half of what they are doing now during Early xbox one, the result would have been different.

The burden of proof here is pretty simple: all the FTC has to show is "reasonable probability" that there will be anti-competitive effects from the merger. That isn't as high of a bar as people seem to think. At the end of the day all they have to do is basically prove that it is better to not allow this deal than to allow it. I think they presented a decent case and yet Microsoft is still banging the last place drum.
That is the issue for FTC. MS xbox one helps strenthing their case. FTC needs more prove to showcase that in the court.
The only wild card in this is the lobbying. Kahn got the job because of promises to police big tech. These companies spend ungodly amounts of money lobbying. Brad Smith is well connected as well. They know its going to be an uphill battle. They also know that Microsoft is notorious for astroturfing and FUD.
Bingo

This is all drama to see who blinks first. It's kinda funny how strong people think the Xbox strategy is when Microsoft has been the only one upping the deals here to get it done.
We are at stage where people are celebrating $67b drop.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
Sony isnt doing big acquisitions. And the rest wont have an impact on any competition. It's simply an investment while it's more to Ms doing it. Let's talk in a decade about the impact because you clearly don't see it without your emotions.
For Sony
https://www.videogameschronicle.com...ms-sony-has-more-studio-acquisitions-planned/

Rest have more impact than you think. They got the money to actually buy those studios. You will see that once this deal gets approved.

Activision blizzard is a domino effect for that.
 

Fabieter

Member
For Sony
https://www.videogameschronicle.com...ms-sony-has-more-studio-acquisitions-planned/

Rest have more impact than you think. They got the money to actually buy those studios. You will see that once this deal gets approved.

Activision blizzard is a domino effect for that.

Studio acquisitions? Like their biggest get was half of Bethesda and that staying multiplatform. If those other players wont take access away from xbox, PlayStation, steam etc than no they have no notable impact.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
Studio acquisitions? Like their biggest get was half of Bethesda and that staying multiplatform. If those other players wont take access away from xbox, PlayStation, steam etc than no they have no notable impact.
They still can buy publishers. Nothing stops them. Especially when they can spend $3.6b on bungie.
Most of publishers like capcom, square and sega market cap are less than $10b. Even Ubisoft market cap is small.
Sony could have bought Ubisoft for 5b-6b.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
What’s the point of that list?

After MS acquires AB there will only be a handful of IP left that would give anybody else any sort of leverage.
Aside of big publishers, MS can buy those studios without a problem. They arent allowed to touch the big dogs after activision.
 

reksveks

Member

Hendrick's

If only my penis was as big as my GamerScore!
Someone point to the section that says those games will never come to Xbox again?

Edit: Quoted in the article. There is no timeline given. This is a lawyer making assumptions.

"In addition to having outright exclusive content, Sony has also entered into arrangements with third-party publishers which require the “exclusion” of Xbox from the set of platforms these publishers can distribute their games on. Some prominent examples of these agreements include Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix), Bloodborne (From Software), the upcoming Final Fantasy XVI (Square Enix) and the recently announced Silent Hill 2 remastered (Bloober team)."
What part of exclusion is confusing?
 

ReBurn

Gold Member
That it’s so difficult to create new successful IP is the very reason why MS is buying up the market.
So true. Twenty-something's these days want to start their careers with six figure salaries and zero experience. Then they act like they've created something new when all they have managed to create is a new version of the same thing that already exists. This acquisition is pretty much just like that.
 

gothmog

Gold Member
MS didnt care before. But now there is a profit to make, So they are getting serious now with their invesment.
If ms did half of what they are doing now during Early xbox one, the result would have been different.


That is the issue for FTC. MS xbox one helps strenthing their case. FTC needs more prove to showcase that in the court.

Bingo


We are at stage where people are celebrating $67b drop.
I'd be celebrating a $67b drop if it was actually for investment in gaming. Instead it's just shifting around money for control.
 
I'd be celebrating a $67b drop if it was actually for investment in gaming. Instead it's just shifting around money for control.

It's a massive investment into Game Pass and Xbox, meaning real consumers benefit in immediate ways. But I'm not surprised you are not happy about that kind of gaming investment.

It can't be considered an investment in gaming if it benefits Xbox customers. That's your stance? That wasn't as clever a statement as you maybe thought it was.

And Microsoft is likely to give studios a bit more freedom. Microsoft could allow usage of the Halo IP among other things. It's more studios who could possibly help with development of other games. More technology sharing between studios, like has already begun between Xbox Game Studios and Bethesda.

These are all gaming related investments. They will also likely better optimize and utilize Series X|S features.

And here is Microsoft making clear that Activision will benefit from expanded capital support and talent available to its game development studios. So the very thing you say this won't be is. Did you really think Microsoft were just buying activision blizzard king to never invest money into the businesses? They've already been allowing all of Bethesda's studios to grow and expand for new projects.

NLEhKpS.jpg
 
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splattered

Member
I'd be celebrating a $67b drop if it was actually for investment in gaming. Instead it's just shifting around money for control.

What starts as "shifting around money for control" will eventually lead to more games being funded with bigger budgets than they would have been under Activision. More creative freedom as we are seeing lately from Microsoft. We might actually get sequels from shelved IPs. Some studios may be freed up from the COD support slavery role. Etc etc. There are a lot of possible positives here, it's not going to be all bad. You are making this out to be all doom and gloom for no reason.
 

Topher

Gold Member
What starts as "shifting around money for control" will eventually lead to more games being funded with bigger budgets than they would have been under Activision. More creative freedom as we are seeing lately from Microsoft. We might actually get sequels from shelved IPs. Some studios may be freed up from the COD support slavery role. Etc etc. There are a lot of possible positives here, it's not going to be all bad. You are making this out to be all doom and gloom for no reason.

It is hard to predict whether these acquisitions will be good or bad really. Activision's merger with Blizzard was horrible from a gamer standpoint. Same with EA's acquisition of Bioware. I think acquisitions are more beneficial for smaller developers like Double Fine and Ninja Theory. Personally, I would absolutely love it if Microsoft broke Blizzard off into a separate space from Activision and try to get those guys back to what made them fantastic years ago. Leave the "don't you guys have phones" bullshit to King.
 
This is basically the gist of it. Every company makes moneyhat deals. No one cares when Nintendo does it. It’s funny and Xbox users are mocked when Sony does it. People only raise a fuss when Xbox does it. Which in a way makes sense, because they have the smallest user base, so an exclusive Xbox deal does exclude more people than the other two consoles. But there is still a deep disconnect between what MS does versus Nintendo/Sony. For some reason people are fine with Sony using their market position to make it extremely difficult for MS to compete without bleeding loads of money. MS instead opts for acquisitions because it makes way more sense but somehow that’s not good enough either. We have to protect poor little Sony! 😆

Look at the replies you’ve gotten. Compared to the likes of SFV, FF7, FFXVI, Forspoken, Silent Hill, KOTOR, Stellar Blade, Rise of the Ronin, others I am forgetting, you get people mentioning Tunic and Sable and Ascent and fucking Medium 😆😆😆 These people understand a massive publisher acquisition is different than a normal moneyhat deal but also want to pretend High on Life and FFXVI are the same thing.

It comes down to what benefits their toy of choice. Which is fine. Just wish some would drop the act is all.
Please. Both sides complain when the other does it. I mean you fuckers are complaining like crazy about Sony doing in all the threads about this merger. Well at least you are after MS gave out the call that that is what they were going to be focusing on. Funny how Sony went from not even being MS's main focus/competitor to the boogeyman giant of a corporation, who is just stomping on the poor little trillion dollar guy. The problem is MS is playing the small nice guy, acting like they don't do this. We, and the regulatory bodies, see through the act.

I also fail to see how it's Sony's fault that MS lost faith in the Xbox brand during the XBO gen. They were giving Xbox less money for money hats, and what they were giving, Phil just used it to fund constant fire sales for the XBO, instead of using it for making new games. And a lot of the games they were releasing were often delayed and mediocre.

So, Sony did exactly what MS would do, and did do during the PS3 gen, buy up as much marketing rights and getting timed exclusives to prevent MS from buying them all up if they ever put faith back in Xbox, again. Well, that time has come and MS are whining about it, instead of doing what all the other companies had to do when they were in last place, pay more money for them or make your own great games. So, instead they just want to buy up the market, one piece at a time.

Of course, they don't want those pieces to be small ones. That what just take too much time and effort. So they're going for big ones, Zenimax/Bethesda and Activision/Blizzard, to win the market quicker, since they have had over 20 years in the market and, by their own hand, still have nothing but a 3rd place ribbon to show for it.
 
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More like getting desperate. Trying to make this a PR battle instead of a legal one.

Microsoft isn't interested in a mere PR battle. It's the FTC engaging in the PR battle, which is why it's Microsoft who is trying to take its case to a real court, and the FTC who instead wants to keep the case delayed in its Kangaroo court. The real delusion here is anyone believing that the law is actually on the FTC's side. It isn't, which is why they regularly lose in their own administrative law court, but because they control the appeal process that goes right back to the themselves they end up stalling and delaying it.

There's a reason Microsoft is channeling the exact same arguments made in the Axon Enterprise vs FTC case that is going to be decided next year at the Supreme Court. If the FTC doesn't back down from its terrible case beforehand, they're likely to be slapped down by the 6-3 Conservative Supreme Court, which will see this Microsoft deal as a massive target.

That supreme court case can go one of only two ways (because they won't be siding with the biden administration on THIS subject based on oral arguments)

#1 - one outcome for that supreme court case - the administrative law judge process 3 is determined to be unconstitutional, and therefore any and all cases that have already received a phase 2 investigation from the FTC, but where the FTC failed to file a timely injunction in federal court, are therefore allowed to close and can no longer be fought by the FTC. This first decision would severely punish the FTC for delays they have already engaged in.

#2 - another outcome for that supreme court case if they want to be a bit more lenient to the FTC, they will allow any companies that have been put into that administrative law judge process to immediately file suit in federal court with an Article III judge, and have its case argued there, where the FTC will end up losing its case, and then that's that. This decision would choose not to punish the FTC for delays it has already engaged in but give companies seeking to get out of the proceedings a legal lifeline to a more neutral body.

There is no situation where after those oral arguments the court sides with the FTC.

These are the justices so far that were hostile to the FTC side of the case - Alito, Gorsuch, Roberts, Kavanaugh and, shockingly, liberal justice Elena Kagan.

If those 4 conservative judges are against the FTC, then no doubt Clarence Thomas and Amy Coney Barrett will likely be against the FTC in this case as well. What makes matters worse for the FTC is to rule in favor of the FTC would directly undermine an opinion already written by Justice Roberts, something he is not inclined to be favorable to.
 
Microsoft has always been playing the poor, old, third place Xbox card. It didn't work before they recommended the block and I don't see how repeating it fixes it now.

The burden of proof here is pretty simple: all the FTC has to show is "reasonable probability" that there will be anti-competitive effects from the merger. That isn't as high of a bar as people seem to think. At the end of the day all they have to do is basically prove that it is better to not allow this deal than to allow it. I think they presented a decent case and yet Microsoft is still banging the last place drum.

The only wild card in this is the lobbying. Kahn got the job because of promises to police big tech. These companies spend ungodly amounts of money lobbying. Brad Smith is well connected as well. They know its going to be an uphill battle. They also know that Microsoft is notorious for astroturfing and FUD.

This is all drama to see who blinks first. It's kinda funny how strong people think the Xbox strategy is when Microsoft has been the only one upping the deals here to get it done.

People like you have said it for years with glee, Microsoft is dead last, 3rd place, and now that Microsoft is using it to its advantage (and it will 100% work because laws and all that jazz) you have a problem? Can't have it both ways.
 

Bumblebeetuna

Gold Member
Please. Both sides complain when the other does it. I mean you fuckers are complaining like crazy about Sony doing in all the threads about this merger. Well at least you are after MS gave out the call that that is what they were going to be focusing on. Funny how Sony went from not even being MS's main focus/competitor to the boogeyman giant of a corporation, who is just stomping on the poor little trillion dollar guy. The problem is MS is playing the small nice guy, acting like they don't do this. We, and the regulatory bodies, see through the act.

I also fail to see how it's Sony's fault that MS lost faith in the Xbox brand during the XBO gen. They were giving Xbox less money for money hats, and what they were giving, Phil just used it to fund constant fire sales for the XBO, instead of using it for making new games. And a lot of the games they were releasing were often delayed and mediocre.

So, Sony did exactly what MS would do, and did do during the PS3 gen, buy up as much marketing rights and getting timed exclusives to prevent MS from buying them all up if they ever put faith back in Xbox, again. Well, that time has come and MS are whining about it, instead of doing what all the other companies had to do when they were in last place, pay more money for them or make your own great games. So, instead they just want to buy up the market, one piece at a time.

Of course, they don't want those pieces to be small ones. That what just take too much time and effort. So they're going for big ones, Zenimax/Bethesda and Activision/Blizzard, to win the market quicker, since they have had over 20 years in the market and, by their own hand, still have nothing but a 3rd place ribbon to show for it.

Minus the console warrior nonsense you threw in, you’re agreeing with me.
 
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