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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|
- Thread starter perfectchaos007
- Start date
This may be a dumb question, but do I have any reason to be concerned for my flight out of Boston to LAX on the 17th? I'm glad we decided to go to Disneyland this year instead of WDW like we did around this time last year....
I'm worried about my family in Port St. Lucie. They rode out Matthew with six kids between all the families despite a voluntary evac order, and I'm worried it gave them a false sense of security. Hoping to hear their plans soon.
I'm worried about my family in Port St. Lucie. They rode out Matthew with six kids between all the families despite a voluntary evac order, and I'm worried it gave them a false sense of security. Hoping to hear their plans soon.
I work at Camuy at a warehouse, and I can tell you the amount of people that are coming to look for resources is concerning, lots of people left preparations for last minute
Nathan_Drake
Member
Bad news for Georgia this time. Probably the strongest for that state since 1898? If it happened. Still a long way to go and the tracks will change...
Wait I thought it was hitting south west Florida. Or is this after it skips over Florida? I am in Charleston SC. Hell
It isn't set yet.
Boca is definitely experience winds...it's just about determining how heavy the impact will be with this new GFS model.
Not in the least.
This is a new projection for 12Z and is one of many projections, most of which still show landfall on the SW coast of FL.
Solidsnakejej
Member
Still getting stronger.
Thank you. Figured I was being paranoid, just wanted to make sure.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Wow. What's your building made of? Sticks and duct tape?
You must live in Plan A then:
http://www.broward.org/Hurricane/Documents/EmergencyShelterMapWebBiggerS.jpg
I'm in the northwestern tip of Puerto Rico. My grandmother is a stubborn little old lady living in a wooden house who refuses to spend the night elsewhere. Rest of us are hunkering down in concrete houses--most houses in Puerto Rico are basically concrete fortresses. She has shrugged off all of our pleas... How worried should I be? The hurricane center is forecast to pass some miles north from the island. I know the northeast is gonna get hit the hardest, but what should we expect here at the northwest?
CraigerGamer
Member
One positive with the storm moving straight north is the water being pushed by the storm won't be pushed directly on land for Florida. The surge will be bad but its going in a direction that may not be catastrophic...until it hits Georgia or South Carolina. 
Vire
Member
Yeah we live on South Ocean Drive in Hollywood, so we fall under Plan A. I've only been in this apartment for six months so I'm definitely not used to this.
maquiladora
Member
Pressure down to 926mb.
UK met is pretty good for hurricanes. A few days ago they were saying Irma would be hitting about 160mph+ at this stage so they have been reasonably good with intensity, not over doing it like GFS.
If you feel like dealing with a 15-20 foot storm surge, by all means stay.
Wow, interesting morning.
I had a meeting with our Financial Services Commission, various business interests and legal firms video linked between Providenciales and Grand Turk (and India for tech support) regarding tweaking upcoming corporate legislation that will rewrite the CSP industry and after about two hours this woman in Grand Turk stood up on the video and basically shouted: "Hold on for just a moment... Is anyone going to address the fact that we're sitting here talking about introducing legislation by October 1st when a category 5 hurricane is coming right at us and we could be suffering a humanitarian disaster for the next 4 months? What are we DOING here?!?"
Everyone just went silent, but the guy chairing the meeting said 'Our industry has to prepare as if it'll miss us until it doesn't." And they were both right. But still, tension.
Then at the hardware store people were buzzing. Real fear in the air - many of these people live in wooden shacks. A lot didn't yet realise it was a cat 5 and news was spreading. The island is like an anthill that has been kicked this morning - everyone is scrambling.
Then I met a friend who was in tears because she experienced at Cat 5 as a teenager in St. Martin. Her house was destroyed and it took 3 weeks to get airlifted out. She was a refugee in Wales for months and when they went back they immediately moved to St. Lucia as there was nothing left - 80% devastation on that island. We were thinking about how they're getting on today - can't be good.
So as you can imagine nerves are jangling here. But every update brings us closer and closer to safety right now. The euro model is very favourable to us right now.
EDIT: The last time a hurricane this big hit us it turned two islands... into one.
I had a meeting with our Financial Services Commission, various business interests and legal firms video linked between Providenciales and Grand Turk (and India for tech support) regarding tweaking upcoming corporate legislation that will rewrite the CSP industry and after about two hours this woman in Grand Turk stood up on the video and basically shouted: "Hold on for just a moment... Is anyone going to address the fact that we're sitting here talking about introducing legislation by October 1st when a category 5 hurricane is coming right at us and we could be suffering a humanitarian disaster for the next 4 months? What are we DOING here?!?"
Everyone just went silent, but the guy chairing the meeting said 'Our industry has to prepare as if it'll miss us until it doesn't." And they were both right. But still, tension.
Then at the hardware store people were buzzing. Real fear in the air - many of these people live in wooden shacks. A lot didn't yet realise it was a cat 5 and news was spreading. The island is like an anthill that has been kicked this morning - everyone is scrambling.
Then I met a friend who was in tears because she experienced at Cat 5 as a teenager in St. Martin. Her house was destroyed and it took 3 weeks to get airlifted out. She was a refugee in Wales for months and when they went back they immediately moved to St. Lucia as there was nothing left - 80% devastation on that island. We were thinking about how they're getting on today - can't be good.
So as you can imagine nerves are jangling here. But every update brings us closer and closer to safety right now. The euro model is very favourable to us right now.
EDIT: The last time a hurricane this big hit us it turned two islands... into one.
TheDrizzlerJ11
Member
I live in Plan B... I'll be fine.
Deadly Joker
Gold Member
I live in Charleston. Fuck.
Again, this is one of many models and the only one that is currently showing Irma skirting up the east coast of Florida.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Here is a link to the FL DEM inundation maps. Luckily, storm surge and flooding stops pretty quickly in inland areas around you. Much better than Miami-Dade
Edit: oops, wrong map set
http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/SURGE/SURGE_BROWARD.pdf
Deadly Joker
Gold Member
Yeah, I understand. It's still worrying to me and my family that it's a possibility.
maquiladora
Member
Dat eye though. What a storm.
Near Aguadilla/Isabella?
I'm worried also, but what can yo do? I have family that's going to be in a concrete house as well, but the area is basically the top of a mountain so they're going to feel the full force of whatever comes by.
Ironically one of the tools that has worked in the past is just calling a 'resheltering' a 'hurricane party.' The promise of seeing family is sometimes enough to get the stubborn to join you. I've been through many hurricanes and tropical storms so I don't completely rely on the forecast path and I really don't mess around with Cat 5 storms.
bengraven
Member
Turks and Caicos. And the islands are limestone with small channels between them. The hurricane can dump so much sand into a channel that the flow stops and sand builds. Once that happens the flow can't restart and land just develops.
Check little water cay on Google maps, that's the one I'm talking about. It and big water cay used to be two islands, hence the two names.
I live in Caguas, but I think we still will get hit by gusts of 100mph or more.
San Juan is gonna get hit hard, the entire northeast coast. Stay safe guys.
JimJamJones
Member
Hollywood floods when it rains. I'd be making plans to leave, just to be safe.
If your not ocean front property and this hits, you will be.
Smiles and Cries
Member
mentallyinept
Banned
NHC has Irma at 185mph sustained winds... that moves her up to a tie for 2nd all time...
FullMetaltech
Member
My wifes family is from Caguas as well. Shes been in contact with them but shes worried for her elders for sure.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Just looking this image , it seems they are going to an storms convention....
crazy, what are the chances for the disturbance in the gulf?
I think, 70%
maquiladora
Member
Latest Euro model is rolling out and the intensity is completely wrong from the start.
Shows it going from 962mb today to 966mb tomorrow. It's already 926mb.
Shows it going from 962mb today to 966mb tomorrow. It's already 926mb.
Ignore intensity. The models are generally wrong about intensity.
The Euro and the NHC have the highest 4 day track verification scores for this storm right now.
maquiladora
Member
The intensity of a cyclone has an impact on track though. A weaker system will be steered by different steering currents than a stronger one. The overall movement so far hasn't really been too significant, it's when it gets closer to the Cuba/Florida later in the forecast period that the steering becomes critical and where the models start to diverge.
Smiles and Cries
Member
that would be nuts to have Katia out there at the same time as 2 other storms
Right but the Euro has been far more correct with the 4 day forecast track of the storm than the GFS even though the Euro initialized Irma at a high MSLP each time.
The Euro has also done a better job at predicting the WAR and the upcoming trough in the CONUS. Both the WAR and the trough are much more important to the steering of Irma than intensity.
maquiladora
Member
Euro takes Irma into Cuba this time. Heading northwest here into the eastern Gulf or a sharp turn north into Florida?
