Welfare
Member
We know 3DS is <154k, so he's at least 16k off on that. Other than that those were solid predictions.
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August 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
We know 3DS is <154k, so he's at least 16k off on that. Other than that those were solid predictions.
Well, my 3DS predictions are fucked, then. Great for Rex, though, I'm really quite confident he will be first place.
Almost feels as if Rex teleported to the future and came back to type those predictions.
Damn, my PS4 and U predictions were really good, but some "XB1 S didn't do that good" posts influenced me too much. Now only 3DS can save me, but iirc we already know that it is <150k, right? Hopefully it's not too far.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Not a bad month for me, but I shouldn't have revised my XB1 numbers up
For a whole month of new hardware, with more power and new features, and including pre orders, it's not too hot imo (I don't expect the PS4 slim to give a huge boost either this being said).
Me neither. Amazon ranks indicate that people clearly prefer the Pro instead of the Slim. That said, the Slim has to compete against all those discounted OG PS4s right now, so it might get some momentum ones those are sold out. Bundles / holiday discounts should help, too.
That said, September pre-orders of PS4 Pro are not part of NPD September results, right?
Welfare
Member
Not a bad month for me, but I shouldn't have revised my XB1 numbers up
For a whole month of new hardware, with more power and new features, and including pre orders, it's not too hot imo (I don't expect the PS4 slim to give a huge boost either this being said).
The 2TB S model was said by MS to have been close to selling out very soon after launch so rest of the month wasn't selling much. The 500GB and 1TB only had 5 days of tracking, and the 1TB sold ~16k. If AstronautClaire gives out more splits we'll have a better understanding of how well the S did.
No. Will only count towards November.
Chobel
Member
<275K for XB1 is not really good.
~160K for PS4 is really bad.
Not really, MS has been doing these deals in their store for ages now. (Ages = this gen)
~160K for PS4 is really bad.
Not really, MS has been doing these deals in their store for ages now. (Ages = this gen
)
But what about all the preorders for the 2TB model? That number also explains all the deals on the X1S so quickly after launch. You still think it has a chance for 500K in September?
OléGunner;215507404 said:
Decent month for myself.
That Wii U drop though ruined everything.
Hydrargyrus
Member
Aqua is baaaaack!
Looks Like she post numbers on twitter now though? I'm not even sure :-/
Anyway:
XB1 - 274.8k
PS4 - 160k
Wii U - 22.8k
Madden - 933k
NMS - 508k
https://mobile.twitter.com/AstronautClaire?p=s
Not bad, not bad...
Kyogre/Groudon beast mode continue!
https://mobile.twitter.com/AstronautClaire/status/776363717319618560?p=v
https://mobile.twitter.com/AstronautClaire/status/776363717319618560?p=v
Welfare
Member
August is either flat or slightly down form July. PS4 held well this month.
That's a Chartz secret that I already explained
Also we still need to get SKU splits for the S before we say anything. The fat model could've drop significantly.
"Please quote my Twitter profile if you reference my numbers!"
wesleyshark
Banned
Glad to see the Xbox One S doing well. Good job msoft
500k in September?
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
Either the fat model dropped dramatically or the slim didn't set the house on fire. Pick one.
Also its a bit nonsensical to say the slim was low because the cheap one was on sale for "only" 7 days when the 2tb had a whole 2 months of preorders, and the cheap model had at least a month.
The slim simply is not the runaway success the 360 slim was and the PS4 slim will be pretty much the same story. Announcing updated models as the same time as smaller revisions is simply not a good idea.
Also its a bit nonsensical to say the slim was low because the cheap one was on sale for "only" 7 days when the 2tb had a whole 2 months of preorders, and the cheap model had at least a month.
The slim simply is not the runaway success the 360 slim was and the PS4 slim will be pretty much the same story. Announcing updated models as the same time as smaller revisions is simply not a good idea.
If we can link Zhuge account, why we can't link Aqua?
SensibleSucker
Member
I get the feeling that Sony will have another couple of rocky months, NPD-wise, but that things will settle again and improve thereafter.
1. Xbox now has an entry level box against the new PS4 that, for PR reasons, has come through their respective launches more positively (though with the advantage of having more distance to travel in terms of improving it's image over the OG box and not being released against a more powerful version of itself 2 months later) -Rightly or wrongly, popular PS4 commentators are very mixed in their views on the Pro
2. The One S also has some functionalities that the new PS4 doesn't - There will be a cohort of people that wan't these functionalities
3. Casuals looking for a UHD 4k player will go for an S, as it's already cheaper than standalone UHD 4K players
4. Those who are not fussed about functionality but care more about power and want in on the Sony eco-system are more likely to drop a pre-order for a November PS4 Pro
5. Sony's big guns in terms of 1st party have been pushed to 2017. Things like TLG/GR2 are pretty niche titles, relatively speaking. Certainly not system sellers to the mainstream market
6. MS have their own issues in terms of 1st party, but Gears will be Gears and it will shift machines, particularly in bundles
7. Sony have, against past form, backed the wrong horse in terms of tent-pole 1st person shooters this winter. Battlefield 1 is tracking much better than COD. Plus MS has EA Access, giving them a head start with FIFA. These are two massive partnership benefits that will influence the mainstream
8. There will be existing PS4 owners that want to buy the pro, as early adopters of Sony technology. But there's going to be a chunk of those early adopters that also want to buy PSVR. Not all will afford both. Essentially, Sony will be forcing a load of people to decide on either PSVR or the Pro. Either way, they will be taking food of their own table in the immediate term.
I do think things will pick up, certainly in November/December and come 2017 I think Sony will accelerate again, but I can see MS doing really well in September/October. That could put them at 4 months running, NPD-wise.
1. Xbox now has an entry level box against the new PS4 that, for PR reasons, has come through their respective launches more positively (though with the advantage of having more distance to travel in terms of improving it's image over the OG box and not being released against a more powerful version of itself 2 months later) -Rightly or wrongly, popular PS4 commentators are very mixed in their views on the Pro
2. The One S also has some functionalities that the new PS4 doesn't - There will be a cohort of people that wan't these functionalities
3. Casuals looking for a UHD 4k player will go for an S, as it's already cheaper than standalone UHD 4K players
4. Those who are not fussed about functionality but care more about power and want in on the Sony eco-system are more likely to drop a pre-order for a November PS4 Pro
5. Sony's big guns in terms of 1st party have been pushed to 2017. Things like TLG/GR2 are pretty niche titles, relatively speaking. Certainly not system sellers to the mainstream market
6. MS have their own issues in terms of 1st party, but Gears will be Gears and it will shift machines, particularly in bundles
7. Sony have, against past form, backed the wrong horse in terms of tent-pole 1st person shooters this winter. Battlefield 1 is tracking much better than COD. Plus MS has EA Access, giving them a head start with FIFA. These are two massive partnership benefits that will influence the mainstream
8. There will be existing PS4 owners that want to buy the pro, as early adopters of Sony technology. But there's going to be a chunk of those early adopters that also want to buy PSVR. Not all will afford both. Essentially, Sony will be forcing a load of people to decide on either PSVR or the Pro. Either way, they will be taking food of their own table in the immediate term.
I do think things will pick up, certainly in November/December and come 2017 I think Sony will accelerate again, but I can see MS doing really well in September/October. That could put them at 4 months running, NPD-wise.
Welfare
Member
Like a month on Chartz I said that if the XB1 were to do somewhere close to 350k in August, best case scenario would be 500k in September. It wasn't a prediction I had made.
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
Hm...you have to wonder if MS will pull off a hat trick as potential PS4 buyers hold off for the Pro.
The Pro at $399 really does render the Slim completely useless. I mean, tonnes of posters called MS dumb for announcing the Scorpio and the S at the same time while releasing them over a year apart. Sony put the Slim, PSVR and the Pro all in the same quarter. That's just...whoa.
The Pro at $399 really does render the Slim completely useless. I mean, tonnes of posters called MS dumb for announcing the Scorpio and the S at the same time while releasing them over a year apart. Sony put the Slim, PSVR and the Pro all in the same quarter. That's just...whoa.
Agreed. The Pro is going to sell a ton in Nov. / Dec.
The only people buying the slim is because it's cheaper and they don't have a PS4 currently. The One S has current Xbox owners upgrading for the 4K player and what not, people who want a 4K player, and people who don't currently have a Xbox. The Slim really is in no man land.
What is your prediction now? I'll go with 350,000 for September NPD.
Welfare
Member
Need to know the split between the fat and S models first before I make a prediction.
My quick and dirty prediction for the PS4 is >350k in September. I'm thinking just slightly higher than last year.
Welfare
Member
Code:
Xbox One 274,800
MoM rise = 60.6%
YoY rise = 37.2%
Weekly average
Xbox One July: 171,100 / 4 = 42,775
Xbox One August: 274,800 / 4 = 68,700
Rise = 60.6%
Code:
PS4 160,000
MoM Drop = 0.7%
YoY Drop = 22.9%
Weekly average
PS4 July: 161,200 / 4 = 40,300
PS4 August: 160,000 / 4 = 40,000
Drop = 0.7%
Code:
Wii U 22,800
MoM drop = 8.4%
YoY drop = 45.8%
Weekly average
Wii U July: 24,900 / 4 = 6,225
Wii U August: 22,800 / 4 = 5,700
Drop = 8.4%Note that for the XB1 the final week would be more skewed to be above the average week with the launch of the 500Gb and 1TB S models.
I expect 400k for PS4 this month.
240k fat (60%) and 160k the slim (40%).
Don't forget that not only is a new model month, but also a pricedrop month. And since Slim was annunced very close to the actual release, i think most PS4 sold will be the first model.
EDIT: Also people prefer Black Ops III over Uncharted 4 so is pretty obvius what bundle choose.
AnthonypUK
Member
What?
the COD BLOPS 3 bundle was a complete beast for them last year and through this year, as will this years COD bundle, it will sell more then any battlefield 1 or FIFA bundle combined.
I know its hip to be on the BF1 bandwagon, but COD will sell more, regardless.
The Slim is a bundle, and very likely to be at $249 around BF. It's a volume thing, and I'm sure it'll do great in Nov/ December.
The Pro is actually a great package with all of -1- weakness, the lack of UHD support, and it remains to be seen if that will be a big factor at all. At $399 it looks like it will do gamgbuster in November, while the PSVR will probably do headlines but being (in theory) already sold out it is very unlikely to interfere with system sales.
The big problem with the slim is that it's currently pretty much a somewhat cheaper looking PS4, $50 cheaper (so "only" $100 cheaper than launch 3 years in), that doesn't really seem to be exciting people.
Last year, in spite of a barren 1st party exclusive landscape, the Star Wars Battlefront and Disney Infinity bundles, on top of the then new COD partnership, had people abuzz about the PS4.
This year... even if -to me- COD IW looks great, I'm still waiting to see the big hook for the Holidays to repeat the crazy sales of last year, besides relying on the "Gaming at 4Kpr" thing for the Pro, or the FF XV launch for the Slim (PSVR might garner positive reviews, but it's also likely to be mostly unavailable during the Holidays).
Love TLG and GR2 to death, but they are very unlikely to grab headlines or boost HW sales imo.
Edit: Forgot about World of FF and DQ Builders (which I am totally buying for the kids for Xmas if the reviews are decent for DQB)... but again They are not pushing these at all, and probably unlikely to do much in terms of HW sales.
ethomaz
Banned
My comment worked like intended
I was begging for numbers.Thank you Aqua for share these with us again.
Poor PS4 sales. Ok Xbone sales.
Edit - Amazing sales for NMS.
ethomaz
Banned
Checking my performance...
Hardware
[PS4] 160k WOW I'm back bitches
[XB1] 230k Well not everything is good... 45k diff hurts
[WIU] 20k The easiest numbers ever to predict... I think most people here are near to nail it
[3DS] 150k
Software
Madden NFL 17 > 350k Well it did over that but way way over... amazing
No Man's Sky > 300k Surprise surprise after all reviews and wom I guess it will do at max 400k
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided > 250k Terrible performance and way below my already low prediction
The King of Fighters XIV < 100k
Agreed The Cod bundle including the Cod4 remaster will destroy a Bf1 bundle.
Kyogre/Groudon beast mode continue!
https://mobile.twitter.com/AstronautClaire/status/776363717319618560?p=v
Thats a lot, wow.
Nightengale
Member
In terms of pushing systems, the past few years of partnership with EA on FIFA has amounted to essentially nothing.
slavesnyder
Member
You can't drop when you're crawling
ethomaz
Banned
His post looks more like wishes than obejectivly prediction...
BF will never be big like CoD even compared to lowest seller CoD.
You sure? Battlefield 3 has most likely sold well over 20 million.
Mister Megative
Banned
ethomaz
Banned
How many do you think CoD sells?
BTW B3 shipped in 2012 about 15 million units... did you really thinks it crossed 20 million???
Darth Smurf X
Member
I really tanked this month. I kept lowering and lowering XBO sales... big mistake.
I knew you are one of my favorite posters on Gaf for a reason.
Dat cup of coffee... Ice Cold
ethomaz
Banned
It is easy.
- BF game never crossed 20m (top was BF3 with 15 million shipped)
- After 2007 no CoD sold less than 20m (even Adavanced Warfare crossed 20m)
There is a big gap here.
Damn, you're like liquid nitrogen...cause you so cooooooold.
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