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August 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th

jayu26 said:
Would NPD be okay if we got numbers one month after their subscribers? Their subscribers are businesses and analysts. I think, to them one month old data would be useless, so they have reason to keep their subscription. Rest of us would be happy with delayed data as long as it is consistently available.
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I believe some hardware and software numbers become public has zero potential for motivate a subscriber not to pay for the data anymore.

NPD simply doesn't care with those who don't subscribe, even not affecting their business they don't want to disclose anything, except a ridiculous top 10 without numbers and ranked by revenue.

Another possibility is that one or more subscribers asked them to not release numbers for the general public.
 
NPD's default position is to release nothing, because all their data is paid for and under contract with the suppliers of the raw data. For a while in 2006/7, they released the hardware numbers because all three manufacturers agreed to do so. At some point one of them backed out of that arrangement, so NPD went back to their default position. No one has to ask them to not release data.

Month late hardware data is perfectly fine with me, for the record. (^_^)
 
Vena said:
I think he just means its ability to gain any penetration is impacted by the delay and the new release timing. Even if fans will buy it regardless, its ability to make a splash amongst extended groups is negatively affected.

Its a bit weird to see GR2 and TLG so close together now, maybe I am just mistaken in thinking that there may be significant audience overlap there. Or maybe not. /shrug
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I guess I'm just a pessimist in that regard as I don't think TLG was ever going to sell outside of it's small core.

Even on GAF, the amount of people you see actually interested in buying it are incredibly small. Maybe it would've gotten a marketing campaign from Sony to extend its base on the initial release date... but I doubt that too.

And Ueda games are so different in design then the vast majority of titles that it'll have a huge perception problem in this day and age. And I don't see much overlap between GR2 and TLG apart from serving those fans who like Japanese titles in general. But they have plenty anyways to be interested in regardless so I don't see that being a factor.

I'm pretty much expecting SotC numbers, maybe slightly less due to the change in generations and shift in player demands. And I don't think SotC opened bug either, wasn't it extremely low? Or am I mistaking it with something else?

Which Ueda game opened to 30k launch month in NPD. I thought I read somewhere it was SotC.
 
Primethius said:
I guess I'm just a pessimist in that regard as I don't think TLG was ever going to sell outside of it's small core.
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I don't think being a pessimist is bad. I think what Queso was talking about was that a lot of posters in the delay thread were going into some heavy cognitive dissonance to rationalize「the title wasn't going to sell anyway, who cares if it delayed」 affects of the delay. The title can be both niche and suffer a negative impact from a delay from a good software slot to a bad one, but a lot of people were jumping over themselves to say how it doesn't matter.

And you're indeed correct that even here, where you'd think we had a fairly accurate representation for a niche such as Ueda's games, we don't really talk much about it aside from making fun of its delays.

I do think one thing that could have been pushed more in the light for the public was the fame of SotC. Its a title a lot of people know about even if not that many have played, its a title that has wormed its way into the lexicon of「video game is like X but with Y changed」. I am curious why this game has been so quiet in its entirety.

/shrug
 
Stay safe Cosmic. Your insight is more valuable than a one-time knowledge of exact numbers. We'll manage with just the broad details. We've worked out stuff before, and I'm sure we'll manage again.

I don't particularly think TLG's current date is a great one, but I still don't know why people were expecting anything more than a modest success. Its developer isn't that popular, it's not graphically stunning, and it's not in a popular genre. It's a meme more than anything. If it becomes a critical darling that could help, but the initial sales are probably destined to be on the lower end.
 
After this time looks like Aqua was really sharing NPD data without permission... I just hope she is safe and she didn't lost the job or anything like.


Said that...

Cream please save us.
 
It doesn't make sense if Aqua really was doing this without permission. She gave out much more data than she ever did and I don't think she would risk her job again.

Either that poster was a troll or she got informed to stop off site as she hasn't logged on Chartz since the 18th, and the supposed NPD employee posted on the 23rd, so she wouldn't see it.
 
Welfare said:
It doesn't make sense if Aqua really was doing this without permission. She gave out much more data than she ever did and I don't think she would risk her job again.

Either that poster was a troll or she got informed to stop off site as she hasn't logged on Chartz since the 18th, and the supposed NPD employee posted on the 23rd, so she wouldn't see it.
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I don't think the msg was for her... they reached her and said to not share more date and after that the guy posted on her wall to say it is illegal for the public see it.

My conspiracy guesses lol

Either way we don't have more data :(
 
You can see what's posted on someone's profile without being logged in, so the 18th/23rd thing isn't conclusive. Maybe she used to have the approval to post numbers, but then NPD changed their minds. It happens.
 
ethomaz said:
After this time looks like Aqua was really sharing NPD data without permission... I just hope she is safe and she didn't lost the job or anything like.


Said that...

Cream please save us.
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I don't think she would post data without permission after what happened the first time.

Maybe she was authorized by one NPD employee (George that was banned in GAF) or maybe NPD as a company really autorized her and changed their position now.
 
allan-bh said:
I don't think she would post data without permission after what happened the first time.

Maybe she was authorized by one NPD employee (George that was banned in GAF) or maybe NPD as a company really autorized her and changed their position now.
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It is possible (I imagine) that a customer or hardware maker complained to the NPD about leaked numbers, leading them to review their stance.
 
Great review scores will give TLG the potential to go beyond its boundaries. I don't think the release date matters too much in that regard. At least it isn't around all that clutter now so if it does have that "Oh? This game has great reviews? I may check it out" effect, the money will potentially be there for it.

I think GR2 is definitely going to just stick with the people who were going to buy it regardless though. Release date nor reviews will matter for it.

Edit - I knew NPD was ded.
 
Elandyll said:
It is possible (I imagine) that a customer or hardware maker complained to the NPD about leaked numbers, leading them to review their stance.
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Yes, it's possible. Neither Sony or Microsoft seems interested in publicize the numbers, Sony is winning almost every month but didn't reveal numbers, MS even winning is not saying too.

Nintendo isn't saying too much these days either.
 
allan-bh said:
Yes, it's possible. Neither Sony or Microsoft seems interested in publicize the numbers, Sony is winning almost every month but didn't reveal numbers, MS even winning is not saying too.

Nintendo isn't saying too much these days either.
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I think Nintendo still reports ~loosely~ their numbers if they ever win. The others don't seem to, and Sony stopped giving even "relative" terms after the first couple of months in 2016 when things were still up YoY. Everyone's kind of mum now that everything went down YoY.

Though I think the 3DS is still doing better than it was in the previous year's month (few months now, in part thanks to GO), but its down YoY due to the launch of the N3DS last year. I think, I could be wrong.
 
Vena said:
I think Nintendo still reports ~loosely~ their numbers if they ever win. The others don't seem to, and Sony stopped giving even "relative" terms after the first couple of months in 2016 when things were still up YoY. Everyone's kind of mum now that everything went down YoY.

Though I think the 3DS is still doing better than it was in the previous year's month (few months now, in part thanks to GO), but its down YoY due to the launch of the N3DS last year. I think, I could be wrong.
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Sony last milestone was 40m in May...

I'm sure they will announce 50m when it happens.
 
That may be just me, but December looks like a way better spot than October for TLG. Although GR2 and TLG are now stupidly close to each other.

In other news, the PS4 Slim finally overtake the OG on Amazon.

#6 PS4 Pro
#24 PS4 S + Uncharted
#27 PS4 OG + Black Ops
#29 Xbox One S
 
Jarod McChicken said:
That may be just me, but December looks like a way better spot than October for TLG. Although GR2 and TLG are now stupidly close to each other.

In other news, the PS4 Slim finally overtake the OG on Amazon.

#6 PS4 Pro
#24 PS4 S + Uncharted
#27 PS4 OG + Black Ops
#29 Xbox One S
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TLG just got pushed to December due Gran Turismo being delayed.

That is what I think.
 
Elandyll said:
It is possible (I imagine) that a customer or hardware maker complained to the NPD about leaked numbers, leading them to review their stance.
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They are just fed up with how premature shitposters misuse their valuable data and customer trust in NPD threads for disgustingly cheap laughs. And rightly so.
 
Jarod McChicken said:
In other news, the PS4 Slim finally overtake the OG on Amazon.
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tumblr_ngebhuAt8d1qjgyvoo1_500.gif
 
I'm wondering if DQVII is going to be a/the little (enormously large and long) game that could for September...

Someone shake a magic eight ball!
 
Ryng_tolu said:
tumblr_ngebhuAt8d1qjgyvoo1_500.gif
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why not?

EDIT:

got an email today that if you pre-order Gears 4 digitally from the Xbox Store they will give bonus rewards credits (5000 for regular edition; 10,000 for ultimate which equates to $5/$10 US dollars).

This is a bit surprising to me as they haven't done that on their previous heavy hitters (at least this gen, I stopped playing X360 when I got a PS3 in 2010).

Is this a sign that preorders for the game are much below expectations?

I almost created a thread on this, but realized it would likely become a shitstorm as it would be throwing up a Bat-signal for the console warriors
 
ethomaz said:
Sony last milestone was 40m in May...

I'm sure they will announce 50m when it happens.
Click to expand...

They announced 50m at the PS Meeting for Pro - It was one of the things Andrew House said in the beginning of the presentation, no? I could have sworn I heard him say it.
 
SneakersSO said:
They announced 50m at the PS Meeting for Pro - It was one of the things Andrew House said in the beginning of the presentation, no? I could have sworn I heard him say it.
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I would be surprised if they sold 10m in the timeframe between May and Sept, esp during the slower(est?) months of console purchases.

To add to that the PS4 didn't sell that well in the US during those months, I doubt the RoTW was big enough to make that up.
 
SneakersSO said:
They announced 50m at the PS Meeting for Pro - It was one of the things Andrew House said in the beginning of the presentation, no? I could have sworn I heard him say it.
Click to expand...

He gave the same 40M number.

watdaeff4 said:
why not?

EDIT:

got an email today that if you pre-order Gears 4 digitally from the Xbox Store they will give bonus rewards credits (5000 for regular edition; 10,000 for ultimate which equates to $5/$10 US dollars).

This is a bit surprising to me as they haven't done that on their previous heavy hitters (at least this gen, I stopped playing X360 when I got a PS3 in 2010).

Is this a sign that preorders for the game are much below expectations?
Click to expand...

It should't surprise anyone.
 
watdaeff4 said:
got an email today that if you pre-order Gears 4 digitally from the Xbox Store they will give bonus rewards credits (5000 for regular edition; 10,000 for ultimate which equates to $5/$10 US dollars).

This is a bit surprising to me as they haven't done that on their previous heavy hitters (at least this gen, I stopped playing X360 when I got a PS3 in 2010).

Is this a sign that preorders for the game are much below expectations?

I almost created a thread on this, but realized it would likely become a shitstorm as it would be throwing up a Bat-signal for the console warriors
Click to expand...
Digital store credits cost them nothing. They just make sure you will use them to buy more games on their store by adding your own money. The store credits are roundabout what they lose on selling a game in retail vs. digital. Good for them.
Also, it's a nice gesture. Good for you.
Win-win.
 
watdaeff4 said:
Doesn't surprise me that they are below, but to me at least, that is a sign it is really below......
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Didn't they do a similar deal last year for digital preorders on the big fall/winter titles? In fact I want to say that one was 15,000 credits.

Just checked back through my emails and yeah they did similar deals in Fall of both 2014 and 2015. So I don't know that you could say this is indicative of anything.
 
uncledonnie said:
Didn't they do a similar deal last year for digital preorders on the big fall/winter titles? In fact I want to say that one was 15,000 credits.

Just checked back through my emails and yeah they did similar deals in Fall of both 2014 and 2015. So I don't know that you could say this is indicative of anything.
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Yeah I'm pretty sure all the fall " best line up ever" games had 15k rewards credits or so rewards credits. And I believe that Recore also got the deal I think recently
 
slavesnyder said:
Digital store credits cost them nothing. They just make sure you will use them to buy more games on their store by adding your own money. The store credits are roundabout what they lose on selling a game in retail vs. digital. Good for them.
Also, it's a nice gesture. Good for you.
Win-win.
Click to expand...

but if sales are brisk, why reduce it all all? maybe i'm overanalyzing.

uncledonnie said:
Didn't they do a similar deal last year for digital preorders on the big fall/winter titles? In fact I want to say that one was 15,000 credits.

Just checked back through my emails and yeah they did similar deals in Fall of both 2014 and 2015. So I don't know that you could say this is indicative of anything.
Click to expand...

Last year, wasn't it you had to buy "x" number of the "greatest lineup ever" (their words - not mine) to get those? Not tied to one game......
 
2015

PS4 - 207.5k
XB1 - 200.3k
WIU - 42.1k

Well, Ryng beat me.

275k is good I guess with only a week for the $299 model.
 
Holy fuck at Deus Ex.
For reference, Human Revolution sold 244,000 units in its first month.
 
Ryng_tolu said:
Aqua is baaaaack! :D
Looks Like she post numbers on twitter now though? I'm not even sure :-/

Anyway:

XB1 - 274.8k
PS4 - 160k
Wii U - 22.8k
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R.I.P. my predictions. XB1 did significantly worse than many of us expected.

Javin98 said:
[XB1] 310K
[PS4] 175K
[WIU] 25K
[3DS] 210K
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Anyway, good to know Aqua is back!

Edit: Oh, my God! I just realized Rex completely nailed it this month! Rex no.1 confirmed? Just waiting on 3DS numbers.

RexNovis said:
[3DS] 169k
[PS4] 161k
[WIU] 21k
[XB1] 274k
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