What Abdiel said is pretty telling, I think. Most people just won't care. Should they have included it? Sure.
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August 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
What Abdiel said is pretty telling, I think. Most people just won't care. Should they have included it? Sure.
I am myself very disappointed at the lack of a UHD player (I use a PS4 - and before that PS3- as my main media hub in the living room and the Pro was supposed to be my go-to when I eventually switch to 4K), but I admit I don't see how the lack of that drive makes the PS4P unveil "terrible".
The games presented in 4K HDR looked gorgeous (Horizon in particular)... And the power differential vs the current competition (a 2Tb 1S is the same price) is rather sizable it seems.
I totally get why MS is in a Media frenzy to do some damage control, but I don't get some Gaffers' (over) reactions...
PS4 Slim: + N and AC Wifi (vs OG PS4), + less power draw + less noisy + 1.82TF GPU (HDR coming) / - no more optical out - $299
PS4 Pro: + N and AC Wifi (vs OG PS4)/ 3x USB ports / 4.2 TF GPU / 4KPR HDR - $399
vs
XB1S: 1.3 TF - Upscale to 4K (same as a 4K TV can achieve from a 1080p source), HDR, 4K UHD Blu Ray. $299 to $399
#shrug. Spencer must thank the lord every night that they did include a UHD BR, as it's pretty much the one differential selling point it looks like atm (besides the obvious difference in ecosystems), and the importance of said point remains to be seen (outside of videophiles like myself -the non early adopter kind-, who might stay on the sidelines for a few more years until more content is available and to see if 4K UHD BR does take off).
The irony and (to me) surprise of it all, is that by refusing to embrace the format they themselves helped create, Sony might have dealt a serious blow to the adoption rate of said format.
mejin
Member
This is not something that can be made on goodwill I think.
I do see what you are saying Elios.
Primethius
Banned
I hope Aqua is okay. And I hope cream comes back.
Obviously, this is just the numbers I see here at Best Buy, which is a larger retailer than just games hardware and software, so we get a mixed audience... but the GCU stuff certainly helps bring in more dedicated buyers, and we've got plenty of people who just prefer to do all their shopping in our stores. There's enough variation to see other trends, but Gamestop may have a larger portion of XB1 preorders floating out there somewhere in the massive bulk that is their market share. Lord knows that there are lots more copies hiding in Amazon's preorders. At the end of the day, it is a JRPG on the XB1, but with a big enough name that it actually gets some attention. It'll still sell more copies overall than something like Nights of Azure did entirely on PS4, I bet, but at the cost differences in the games... I get the feeling that this is officially the death of any future Japanese prospects for Microsoft's console from SE unless it is bought and paid for by MS.
Our Magnolia stuff is where you see the real push for the UHD area, with the dedicated seating and quiet rooms to let people really get a chance to appreciate that kind of fidelity, and they have hardware options that are going to be far more profitable to the store to suggest and work off of, as well as seem like a better overall 'product' than the game console with a player built in. Now the reps aren't on commission, so selling a console is fine, but it makes the store no money either, they're basically a wash unless you can get protection plans, and other add ons, etc.
Movies are a great add on, since they have a really high profit margin on them now. Unfortunately they don't attach to game consoles almost at all in our stores unless we bundle them in creative ways, and usually, the customers try to talk us into offering something else rather than a physical movie. It's kind of exasperating when you come up with new or interesting offers, and instead you get haggling. Oh well. That's retail.
Basically, the XB1 S is still a great little piece of kit, and good on MS for throwing the UHD drive in there, it's a great bullet point for them. Unfortunately it seems to make very little difference in the market I'm at, as it isn't any kind of major driver, and if the PS4 is able to reduce its cost even further and faster with the newer model, that is (which is what I predicted earlier this year) where we'll see further momentum across the board.
Seriously some of the posts in the threads I've been reading have had me just like reeling with the sheer crazy that accumulates in a single message. Oy.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
Hardly anybody watched that presentation anyway, the real launch was in the mainstream media and it didn't even mention how terribly stilted the PSM was.
Sony being a hardware manufacturer would probably have enough insights and data to think its not worthwhile to include UHD disks even for ps5. Neogaf will be pissed off for sure, but the general public? Doubt it.
RedAssedApe
Banned
Ugh. PS4p launching so close to Black Friday. Can't decide if I want to preorder or hold off for potential deals like a game bundle or Gc. Not to mention whether or not to hold off on October releases that will ps4p improvements day one.
Also og fat PS4 trade in to consider. 🤔
Also og fat PS4 trade in to consider. 🤔
slavesnyder
Member
I hope the data feedback of the slim gives us the chance to know the hours of UHD movies played on XboxOne in next months PR message.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
10 hours average, most people just watched Deadpool UHD five times.
You mean 10 hours total. Most people just streamed it ;P
slavesnyder
Member
They should block Netflix.
People sometimes need a little friendly push.
You jest but they initially did have Netflix blocked behind a Paywall.
Primethius
Banned
The current September Amazon hourlies are surprising.
Not that Pro is #1 but that PS4 Slim is so low.
Not that Pro is #1 but that PS4 Slim is so low.
ethomaz
Banned
Pro is a beast.
I think the Slim bundle just showed up about a day or so ago, whereas the Pro has been listed since Wednesday.
This being said, $299 for a "cheaper" version of the OG PS4, even with UC4, it wasn't really bound to set the world on fire even if it should do "allright". It's painfully obvious that you'll be able to find a PS4 for $249 at some point during the Holidays imo.
By contrast, the PS4P, in spite of the UHD drive missing, is a better deal than expected at 4.2TF and 1Tb for $399... Imo (and I'm sure that Sony has better analysts than good old me) they should have gone with a slightly souped up CPU and a UHD Drive on the Pro, at $449, while allowing the PS4 slim to stream 4K (no reason it can't) and go for a no game bundle at $249.
Jarod McChicken
Member
I'm surprised too about the slim but it's important to mention there is the OG Black Ops III bundle above (and above the Xbox One S in particular) since it's also 299 dollars now. Every other PS4 SKU also jumped back in the top 100 since the price cut.
So what we have now is people seems more interested to buy the old PS4 instead of the slim just because the former is bundled with Black Ops III and the latter is bundled with Uncharted 4. I also suspect there is still a huge lack of knowledge about the benefits of the slim (Wifi, watts, noise) because how it was suddenly announced 1 week before the release.
I didn't expected this but I guess the slim will take off when the OG stocks will be finished.
Let's take a look at Amazon US right now
#1 PS4 Pro (399$)
#24 PS4 + Black Ops (299$)
#31 Xbox One S + Halo (299$)
#41 PS4 S + Uncharted (299$)
#51 PS4 + Uncharted (299$)
#73 Xbox One S 2 To (399$)
#86 PS4 (320$)
For the record, the PS4 slim is currently above the PS4 Pro in Japan, where Sony made a point to cut off the production of the OG PS4 two weeks ago.
Primethius
Banned
Very fair points. I hope someone will track how long it'll take Amazon to clear of the OG PS4 stock. That'll be an interesting metric to keep in mind if we ever get NPD numbers again.
The number of SKUs can also be misleading since the returns on volume will diminish the further you drop in the ranking. That is to say, if you congregate them into a single count, you probably wouldn't gain that many spots since , generally, I'd think these types of charts would not be linear but exponential or exponential-like (especially considering seeing things like RE4 Remaster which, I honestly don't think is lighting any charts on fire or making huge moves of units). Heck, who'd even be buying the OG PS4 at 320$ without a game included? Those low end titles on the Hourly have to be in the comically low units as to be statistically irrelevant.
The X1S has dropped quite a bit now that the initial launch has faded, and I think for the Slim, the price split with the Pro is just stealing a lot of its early thunder as far as Amazon is concerned (and let's not call in Chris to explain to us why Amazon JP is irrelevant). Even if the OG PS4 SKUs didn't exist at the same price point (with CoD > U4 for the casual), I don't think the Slim would be much further than it currently is, somewhere 15<x<20 or so. The early pre-order/big-spenders aren't going to jump on the Slim, they will jump on the Pro.(And I'd think Amazon does lean in bias towards the more core than the casual which would be more of Walmart, Target, Gamestop and such.)
As for the Pro, it should be at the top. The X1S spent forever at the very top on Amazon, IIRC it was over a week sitting around at the top with its launch unit.
Its also possible that the slow down that we've been seeing for most of this year for both consoles wasn't price sensitive but simply a diminishing interest, but that's unlikely or, at the very least, is non-quantifiable without more numbers and months. We also know we're reaching the point where sales start to move and concentrate into November/December.
Also Amazon definitely has some funky decay algorithm in place considering that the, for many many hours now, sold-out Zelda Amiibo are apparently selling more than most everything else on their list. Which is clearly nonsensical, or the entirety of the chart after ~16 is selling negative values.
The X1S has dropped quite a bit now that the initial launch has faded, and I think for the Slim, the price split with the Pro is just stealing a lot of its early thunder as far as Amazon is concerned (and let's not call in Chris to explain to us why Amazon JP is irrelevant). Even if the OG PS4 SKUs didn't exist at the same price point (with CoD > U4 for the casual), I don't think the Slim would be much further than it currently is, somewhere 15<x<20 or so. The early pre-order/big-spenders aren't going to jump on the Slim, they will jump on the Pro.(And I'd think Amazon does lean in bias towards the more core than the casual which would be more of Walmart, Target, Gamestop and such.)
As for the Pro, it should be at the top. The X1S spent forever at the very top on Amazon, IIRC it was over a week sitting around at the top with its launch unit.
Its also possible that the slow down that we've been seeing for most of this year for both consoles wasn't price sensitive but simply a diminishing interest, but that's unlikely or, at the very least, is non-quantifiable without more numbers and months. We also know we're reaching the point where sales start to move and concentrate into November/December.
Also Amazon definitely has some funky decay algorithm in place considering that the, for many many hours now, sold-out Zelda Amiibo are apparently selling more than most everything else on their list. Which is clearly nonsensical, or the entirety of the chart after ~16 is selling negative values.
slavesnyder
Member
Difference between OG and Slim is in the details. People don't care about details as long as there's COD written on it.
Differences between OG X1 and Slim are much bigger.
If they had made the Slim white it would have sold better, but it's okay as right now they can simply clean stock. The most remarkable thing is that they can clean stock without hefty promos. That old thing has one year-old game tacked to it and still sells at a 300$ pricepoint.
Yeah, it's definitely not real-time. 8-bit Link is on top, but that's just because it was the most recent of the three to have stock!
Chobel
Member
Looks like Sony's plan to imitate Apple announcements didn't work at all.
Disagree With this part. i think they priced it perfectly
Nah, its just that the ones who preorder from amazon are more savy and will choose the more powerful ps4. Slim is for the casuals who play COD and other annual games.
Since NPD silenced Aqua, we need you for give us a better ideia about the gap and how close to 300k Xbox One it is.
slavesnyder
Member
CosmicQueso should be cautious. And he is.
I prefer him to data.
Jarod McChicken
Member
There are now 3 PS4 packs above the Xbox One S
#4 PS4 Pro
#24 PS4 + Black Ops III
#31 PS4 + Uncharted 4
#32 Xbox One S + Halo
(bonus track : Recore enters the top 20 for the first time o/)
#4 PS4 Pro
#24 PS4 + Black Ops III
#31 PS4 + Uncharted 4
#32 Xbox One S + Halo
(bonus track : Recore enters the top 20 for the first time o/)
StarBlazers1
Member
Curious to see next month if games like recore and FH3 show up at all. With the Play Anywhere initiative being a digital feature and MS not reporting digital sales, it's going to be interesting to see if their PR makes mention of it.
Hydrargyrus
Member
Any new hint about the numbers?
Primethius
Banned
For a title like Recore, I suspect it'll just be an excuse to hide the disappointing sales numbers behind.
CosmicQueso
Member
TLG's delay is not good for its sales potential. Reading over and over again in the delay threads that it is just reeks of wishful thinking.
I get the frustration, and I wish the information was more freely available.
But the truth is that the data itself is a product that many people work very hard to produce. It's not unlike releasing a game, a song or any other piece of content. Jobs rely on that information being sold.
Would the hardware numbers being available cause job losses? No, of course not.
But still, that information is proprietary and protected. It's not anyone's to release unless the actual legal owner of that information wishes it to be.
I try to help guide conversations without giving numbers because I have a great deal of respect for the community, and am often really impressed and influenced by the analysis that comes from it. I know that is very far from ideal, but it's the best I can do for now.
I get the frustration, and I wish the information was more freely available.
But the truth is that the data itself is a product that many people work very hard to produce. It's not unlike releasing a game, a song or any other piece of content. Jobs rely on that information being sold.
Would the hardware numbers being available cause job losses? No, of course not.
But still, that information is proprietary and protected. It's not anyone's to release unless the actual legal owner of that information wishes it to be.
I try to help guide conversations without giving numbers because I have a great deal of respect for the community, and am often really impressed and influenced by the analysis that comes from it. I know that is very far from ideal, but it's the best I can do for now.
+Like
Actual NPD release is this Thursday. We'll see if more info comes out then.
+Like
Primethius
Banned
Tbh, given the type of title it is, I don't see the actual sales change that much. And I don't expect those sales to be that impressive either since they'll be focused on the fans who were always going to buy it (99% of the TLG delay thread was never going to buy the game I bet ya).
It seems very much a title that's coming out simply on the prestige of Ueda.
Damn strait.
spatenfloot
Member
How ironic.
yeah, I understand and appreciate your help.
I think he just means its ability to gain any penetration is impacted by the delay and the new release timing. Even if fans will buy it regardless, its ability to make a splash amongst extended groups is negatively affected.
Its a bit weird to see GR2 and TLG so close together now, maybe I am just mistaken in thinking that there may be significant audience overlap there. Or maybe not. /shrug
FinaruDensetsu
Member
Woah Magnolias can show you HDR? I'm gonna head down to mine to see. Never seen it in person and would love to know what it looks like.
Personally I hope we don't get numbers this month. It's a very selfish reason...I did very poorly this month...
Would NPD be okay if we got numbers one month after their subscribers? Their subscribers are businesses and analysts. I think, to them one month old data would be useless, so they have reason to keep their subscription. Rest of us would be happy with delayed data as long as it is consistently available.
Would NPD be okay if we got numbers one month after their subscribers? Their subscribers are businesses and analysts. I think, to them one month old data would be useless, so they have reason to keep their subscription. Rest of us would be happy with delayed data as long as it is consistently available.
CosmicQueso
Member
Eh sales for TLG weren't going to be huge imo anyway. It would have launched in October. A month where we have Gears, BF1, Titanfall 2, and Mafia 3. November you have, FFXV, COD, WD2 etc.
IMO a game like that. You release. Hope the diehards buy it and then gradually drop the price, bundle it or offer for PS+ in a year.
Omnistalgic
Member
TLG should be a quality release.
Even if it only does 40K in the U.S, you don’t add it to PS+ in a year’s time, I think that devalues the product. A bundle would be a nice way to move units though. Solid reviews though, I think TLG hits 1 million WW tbh...
Lots of hardcore fans love the style of games. Niche audience, but I’d say dedicated and loyal niche, and bigger than a Disgaea 5 audience for example.
Even if it only does 40K in the U.S, you don’t add it to PS+ in a year’s time, I think that devalues the product. A bundle would be a nice way to move units though. Solid reviews though, I think TLG hits 1 million WW tbh...
Lots of hardcore fans love the style of games. Niche audience, but I’d say dedicated and loyal niche, and bigger than a Disgaea 5 audience for example.
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