Hahahah wow
It doesn't seem to stop if you keep doing it.
I swear.
One day i tryed for over one hour... I has no end.
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August 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I swear.
One day i tryed for over one hour... I has no end.
Verendus playing chess with God. We are in an existential struggle of good vs evil, light vs dark, Playstaion vs Xbox. Now I need to fit Nintendo into my ontology so I can start on my epic poem.
spatenfloot
Member
I think it means Microsoft will have to offer amazing bundles this holiday season. Even then, sales will fall off a cliff between holidays and launch of Scorpio.
I also think Pro sales will be higher than many here are expecting.
CosmicQueso
Member
What's the line for impressive, quantitatively speaking?
This is top tier slavesnyder.
Welfare
Member
100k?
Ps4 preorders are still really solid, they've been growing steadily, though I feel like we need to see if they plan to actually roll out higher end marketing. Are they running commercials?
Xb1 version preorders are basically a joke by comparison. One of my stores has more orders for the last guardian than xb1 xv. This is an exception, but not a huge one. I don't expect it to do well on the platform. 4.5 to 1 is the minimal ratio I'm seeing in my stores.
@ Cosmic, for impressive... More than a 40-50k win?
Also, my two cents on the uhd thing, there's been virtually no commentary on that from people asking about the pro, and the people that picked up the xb1 s last month were the first people time I'd heard any console owners mention movies in ages. Not even all of them, just a few.
It's still a market, but it's not one we see much of. Also, my stores aren't inclined to sell game hardware as uhd players anyway, because we make no profit on those vs dedicated hardware. It's a better consumer move, sure, but it's not like you'll see us positioning them over other options, if the customer really wants it in the magnolia section.
What the hell are you talking about Snyder? Sony just wants to you the buy their separate UHD player with the extra bells and whistles.
This is my thing and I try to look at all of this from your average consumer perspective. By and large I don't see people buying these consoles for 4k blu ray playback.
Now MS should hammer the point home because it's basic marketing. "Our box can do something yours can't." But that said based on what we know it seems the Slim isn't lighting the world on fire yet and it'll be interesting to see how sales are this month.
On the flip side it'll be interesting to see how the PS4 slim does. Looking at amazon and Gamestop online. the Pro is doing very well for itself it seems. I wonder if it'll keep it up.
So yea I'm wondering how the $299 PS4's will sell this month and what the Slim UC4 bundle will do. Because we could have a situation where people hold off and buy the Pro.
Now MS should hammer the point home because it's basic marketing. "Our box can do something yours can't." But that said based on what we know it seems the Slim isn't lighting the world on fire yet and it'll be interesting to see how sales are this month.
On the flip side it'll be interesting to see how the PS4 slim does. Looking at amazon and Gamestop online. the Pro is doing very well for itself it seems. I wonder if it'll keep it up.
So yea I'm wondering how the $299 PS4's will sell this month and what the Slim UC4 bundle will do. Because we could have a situation where people hold off and buy the Pro.
ethomaz
Banned
At $399 I'm starting to believe Pro will be the main selling console from Sony.
I wish we get split leaks after NPD November.
Pro is like the iPhone options from Apple... you have a 16GB version but with more $100 you get 64GB version... nobody wants the 16GB.
It will probably be sold out in November unless there will be a big big stock.
That's why I'm curious. No doubt they are taking preorders on the Pro now to clearly gauge how much they should allocate to each region.
I still think the Slim will be the big seller the rest of the year. I can easily see it going down the something like $199-$249 on black Friday.
But I think the pro will do much better than people are assuming.
Also can we get a hint on the gap this month?
September is going to be weird month for NPD. We have the PS4 slim coming in at $299 on the 15th and then Pro on the 10th of Nov for a $100 more, who wouldn't want to wait for Pro version if you want the very best?
I feel that Sony will need to use some buzzwords for the PS4 Slim because I know we are going to start seeing some very nice deals from retailers very soon on OGPS4. Anyway, with Destiny coming out with exclusive content on the PS4 version, I think Sony will win but not by a long shot.
I predict <20 - 25k in favour of Sony.
I feel that Sony will need to use some buzzwords for the PS4 Slim because I know we are going to start seeing some very nice deals from retailers very soon on OGPS4. Anyway, with Destiny coming out with exclusive content on the PS4 version, I think Sony will win but not by a long shot.
I predict <20 - 25k in favour of Sony.
It would be nice to have a leak for this month just to being with
Btw I don't think so first of all because Sony will simply manufacture much less Pro models compared to Slim units. Production ratio will likely be 1:3.
Also that 100$ price gap will end up being 150$ soon after the Pro's launch when the Slim will be dropped to 250$ on BF and December while the Pro will keep the 399$ price but with a game included.
And as a third point, for the mainstream market (those people who just want a cheap box to play the biggest games their friends are also playing) even a 100$ difference is a huge thing, a 100$ difference compared to the PS4 sunked the Xbox One at launch.
Also if you don't have a 4K HDR TV that 100$ difference is hardly justified by the Pro imo.
Vlodril
Member
People that care about the price (usually the vast majority). I think you are underestimating the value of a 300 slip ps4 and overestimating how many people know about the pro and are willing to wait for it.
They are likely going to win by more than what Microsoft has won in July and August combined.
And btw that's not even a lofty goal ^^''
CosmicQueso
Member
You guys are easily impressed.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
That puts the PS4 at very max 250k?
Realistically we are looking at something like 280k Xbox and 190k PS4.
Bit of a blowoutt I guess.
slavesnyder
Member
They should open preorders for Scorpio.
It would have a terrific first month.
It would have a terrific first month.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
As soon as they have revealed the console (which will probably be early Jan next year) I'd expect preorders to be immediately opened.
I think Queso is referring to Welfare, who puts the XB1 sales (I dare hope he meant just XB1S) at 100K for "impressive", which would be mind blowingly low for the launch month + pre-orders imo.
Unless Welfare means the differential? Which would tell us little if sales are terrible for both (100k / 200k) or mediocre(200k / 300k)
disco potato
Member
Unless SONY is expecting low sales and therefore produced low numbers, I can almost guarantee that you'll be able to walk/log into any store selling consoles and take a PRO off the shelf.
CosmicQueso
Member
Don't have that detail Welfare.
Omnistalgic
Member
The terrible showing at PSM wasnt terrible for mainstream bro.
Im telling you, mainstream dont read reviews of games, dont go on forums, and to the contrary of popular belief, dont ask their more nerdy friends for gaming recommendations. They simply dont buy that many AAA software, and stick to trusted brands like Madden, Fifa, NBA2K, GTA, COD, Battlefield, Halo, GT, etc...When words gets out, when ALL media makes noise, when their nerdy friends are talking/hyping something up, thats when they pay attention. We have to not think of mainstream market as a bunch of misinformed ignorant gamers. They simply dont prioritize gaming enough in their lives to have as much of a beat on the industry as we do. Some of the best Call of Duty, Street Fighter players, would by all accounts, be considered casual, since they spend the majority of there time with those few games. They look at the PS meeting, and go, more powerful PS4 for the same original price I paid? Where do I trade in at?
Its just not some big deal of agonizing over screenshots. Highlighting the different frame rates, or resolutions between modes. Its just a much more simpler conclusion and decision. And once, a bunch of people upgrade, they will tell say whether its worth it or not, or see a 4K display in the store and realize Pro looks even better on one of those, and plan to get one, or long for one until its cheaper.
Honestly, we could adopt some of the mainstream mindset a bit more, forum peeps are just way to anal about everything. Its not that serious.
"No Ultra BR drive?! WTF SONY dropped the ballz so hard!!! -_-
Like come on.
Welfare
Member
Okay.
We can't confirm or deny that at this point.
I don't think UHD matters that much to even to "hardcore gamerz" despite the kerfuffle. A hardcore gamer sees that only place to play Persona 5 and Ni-oh is PlayStation. A hardcore gamer even on a budget will the buy the platform with the games they like, even if that happens to be Wii U.
As far as mass market is concerned momentum is everything, since they only care popular multiplatform games like you said. If the price is right for the hardware inside, as far as games are concerned, people will buy them.
Wow, I didn't expect the gap to be that huge. I'm guessing the ratio will end up like Type-0's or higher when all is said and done.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Pretty much.
The internet rage has become pretty funny though. I actually look forward to seeing what pops up every month or so that gets people on gaming forums riled up. The reactions are so predictable and embarrassing.
Are people mostly mad about the blu-ray thing or what? Hard to separate some of the hyperbole.
Pretty good points. The UHD BR drive thing has definitely been blown way out of proportion on GAF. I'm not planning on buying the Pro at the moment, but if I do, I'm fine with it not having an UHD BR drive. Also, I'm a graphics tech geek, so the lack of specific details regarding visual improvements was pretty disappointing to me.
Apparently.
I honestly wonder how many of the people who are mad about the lack of a UHD blu-ray player even had a regular blu-ray player last gen if they didn't own a PS3.
It's a truly a shame. I'm glad the game is coming to the console for the gamers that do want it, but it's cleat the Xb1 audience doesn't appeal to that genre.
I can't speak to the claims he's making about people wanting to trade up, but the poster is right in that the people who play COD, Madden etc would be considered casual and pretty much game on what their friends do.
They aren't clued in to much of what we know. I often talk to my cousin. Who somewhat pays attention to what's going on in gaming, but he mostly just looks at games coming out and asks what I think since he knows gaming is my shit lol.
But he couldn't tell you about half the shit we talk about day to day. I doesn't even know Fallout 4 or the new Skyrim has mod support on XB1.
SneakersSO
Member
Its mostly in online discussions.
Sony isn't wrong in that most people in the mainstream could not give a fuck about physical media when it comes to movies anymore. Its become an ever-increasing irrelevant factor - streaming services have completely taken over that field. I think if Sony came out and admitted this is more of a cost cutting measure to keep the price tag low enough so that its at an acceptable level they'd be better off than just telling consumers they don't really care about UHD, cause telling a consumer base the truth in that they don't care about something has never worked in the past - it comes across as pedantic.
I think a bit of both. I think there is some legit confusion and wonder by some posters about why it's not in the Pro. The rest imo are making it a bigger deal about it.
That said how many people, not just people on GAF have 4k tvs and 4k content to take advantage of the 4k blu ray playback on the One S?
Nah. You already have some people thinking Sony could have traded the 1TB hard drive for a 500GB hard drive and then attached a UHD blu-ray player for the same price. Like there's that much of a difference between a 500GB and 1TB drive when you're buying in bulk.
Sony estimates around 50 million 4KTV owners.
But as of last year, HDTV penetration just passed 80% in the US.
So when people say 4KTV is a niche at the moment, UHD blu-rays are an even greater niche.
It's GAF, hyperbole and overreactions are the norm.
Omnistalgic
Member
Source for my above rant.
Very very investing Holiday we have coming up. I want to see what Slim does since it’s basically a $250 console with a game. Perhaps more bundles are needed so it can be more of a game of your choice. I would do UC4/COD/P5/FF15/BF1/Madden/Fifa bundle if I were Sony, not sure if EA is tied up with MS this entire gen or what, but those are big ones.
And then we have Pro, which Amazon and retail gurus here say is starting off strong with pre-orders. So November will be all the most interesting to watch.
Finally December, where everything is on full beast mode with deals, and after Black Friday hysteria. Sep-January this thread should be pretty lively again.
I also wonder what Horizon (if reviewed really well and gets media hype) and GTS (same thing, reviews well, media hype) will do for PS hardware in general as I think those will both be Sony’s biggest 2017 releases. I don’t expect God of War, Days Gone, or Spiderman to hit in 2017.
On the 4K thing, I think it’s a combination of very very low adoption rates for BR and Ultra BR on top of Sony wanting to push Vue. I don’ think they want to spearhead ultra BR this time because they see the trend of users going away from it. It’s not something that’s ever going to be not niche IMO. as more and more regions get good internet, streaming and downloading will just become too convenient. I looked at a Blu-ray a while ago, and it looked better than hi-def on Netflix, not so much better than something I actually paid for and downloaded, and the difference in quality was just not a big deal. It’s sooo much more convenient to have these digital movies sitting on my computer’s HDD and stream to my PS4 with Plex, or my small little PSN collection of movies, or stuff I’ve ripped from torrents and legit purchases from iTunes. the bump in quality from physical is just becoming less and less important.
I think a good analogy that was used years ago was, “look at how crap youtube videos look, but billions of people love it”. It’s the same, as digital is starting to catch up, it really feels like physical will just become a hobbyist thing.
I used to be a casual gamer ‘-)
Very very investing Holiday we have coming up. I want to see what Slim does since it’s basically a $250 console with a game. Perhaps more bundles are needed so it can be more of a game of your choice. I would do UC4/COD/P5/FF15/BF1/Madden/Fifa bundle if I were Sony, not sure if EA is tied up with MS this entire gen or what, but those are big ones.
And then we have Pro, which Amazon and retail gurus here say is starting off strong with pre-orders. So November will be all the most interesting to watch.
Finally December, where everything is on full beast mode with deals, and after Black Friday hysteria. Sep-January this thread should be pretty lively again.
I also wonder what Horizon (if reviewed really well and gets media hype) and GTS (same thing, reviews well, media hype) will do for PS hardware in general as I think those will both be Sony’s biggest 2017 releases. I don’t expect God of War, Days Gone, or Spiderman to hit in 2017.
On the 4K thing, I think it’s a combination of very very low adoption rates for BR and Ultra BR on top of Sony wanting to push Vue. I don’ think they want to spearhead ultra BR this time because they see the trend of users going away from it. It’s not something that’s ever going to be not niche IMO. as more and more regions get good internet, streaming and downloading will just become too convenient. I looked at a Blu-ray a while ago, and it looked better than hi-def on Netflix, not so much better than something I actually paid for and downloaded, and the difference in quality was just not a big deal. It’s sooo much more convenient to have these digital movies sitting on my computer’s HDD and stream to my PS4 with Plex, or my small little PSN collection of movies, or stuff I’ve ripped from torrents and legit purchases from iTunes. the bump in quality from physical is just becoming less and less important.
I think a good analogy that was used years ago was, “look at how crap youtube videos look, but billions of people love it”. It’s the same, as digital is starting to catch up, it really feels like physical will just become a hobbyist thing.
So complacent right? lol
I'd also say that it shouldn't be as surprising that the Pro doesn't play UHD blu-rays as people think. The PS4 Pro is still a PS4. People will be stupid enough to be confused about why UHD blu-rays play in one but not the other.
I'd say if the PS5 doesn't include a UHD blu-ray player, then people can feel free to riot.
PS4 Slim,PS4 Pro, PSVR ,New DS4, PS Camera and a Headset!
That's not the point.
The fact is just that they left a door open where the competition now has a feature to promote while they don't have it.
For "some" people that's enough to complain and make noise regardless of the actual impact of the omission. Most of the people complaining don't even have a 4K TV let alone being interested in buying many 4K BR movies. It's just noise.
But while Sony's decision is sound on the business side, it left them open to backlash on the pure marketing side. They surely expected some amount of backlash but they decided to move on anyway because they think that it won't have any real impact on the success of the product.
Anyway given the low extra cost of the drive, the benefit of not leaving the competition alone in offering this feature and the fact that the Pro would be a more complete and better product with it included, I personally think that they should have included it.
I just don't get this narrative lol. MS benefits from a firesale and the next month from their Slim launch and people say Sony is complacent.
I mean no software launched that would move hardware and won't until Gears launches, and then you have games like, BF1, Titanfall 2, Mafia 3, WD2, and then COD. That's when you'll see the bulk of HW start to move.
Not to mention the Slim launches next week, VR next month, Then Pro a month after that.
What people need to understand is that now at this point MS and Sony are going to try and keep you in their ecosystems. Sony clearly is going big with VR. MS not so much yet. The lines are going to start to kinda blur and instead of which console sold more it's about these companies keeping you in their ecosystem and spending money with them and their content.
Omnistalgic
Member
fair enough...in hindsight, maybe its worth the good will. time will tell..
Omnistalgic
Member
Thats the only thing I was personally disappointed with, I thought the DS4 could certainly use a longer battery life. Didnt really want an elite controller or whatever, but just something that doesnt wear out as quick, and can stay charged for longer would have been a nice upgrade.
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