I'm really surprised the Pro seems to be getting quite a lot of interest from the mainstream gamers. Like most on GAF, I thought it would mostly cater to the hardcore as well, the terrible showing at the PSM didn't help either.
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August 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
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Primethius
Banned
Cosmic, any hints as to how close the GAF aggregate is to actuals?
Primethius
Banned
RedAssedApe
Banned
Any news of potential trade in offers closer to pro launch like they had with xbone s? I forget which retailer you work for? GameStop?
So I'm interested in knowing how well the Xbox 360 Slim did when it launched.
Really MS should be looking to surpass or at least equal those kind of numbers surely with the XB1S launch.
Otherwise, they might get their lunch stolen this holiday.
Think I underestimated the PS4 Pro likely selling potential over the coming 6-12 months to some casual gamers.
Really MS should be looking to surpass or at least equal those kind of numbers surely with the XB1S launch.
Otherwise, they might get their lunch stolen this holiday.
Think I underestimated the PS4 Pro likely selling potential over the coming 6-12 months to some casual gamers.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
OléGunner;216363916 said:
Think it was posted earlier in this thread. 443k
Cheers man!
And the upper ceiling I've seen bandied about this thread is not more than 300k.
My opinion, that's a muted response to a new console revision. I'm sure MS will have to redo the crazy deals of the last couple years to keep some sort of momentum against the slim and pro.
Edit:
Oh yeah? So my reply to thoughtsofspeaking was kinda bollocks heh.
So it's actually done quite a bit better than the 360 slim then.
I'd revise my above post to say that it is actually good performance if that's the case but they still have a tough old fight coming the next 3 months.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
'If we practically throw in the kitchen sink, sales will be great!'
OléGunner;216364516 said:
180,700 is ONLY the slim.
Combined sales of 360 Fat and 360 slim were 452,000 in June 2010.
Combined sales of XBO fat and XBO slim this month are < 300K.
Best November for XBO is November 2015 with 1,296,000 unit.
D'oh, its early in the morning for me haha!
Thanks for clarifying that Ryng (guess my initial post stands again)
Edit: That other NPD thread is awful.
Wasn't actually surprised that the win wasn't super impressive since there have been numerous sub $300 Xbox One S bundles lately. Even $350 2TB Xbox One S bundles.
That stuff wouldn't be happening after less than a month if it was lighting sales on fire.
The PS4 Slim with Uncharted 4 for $300 seems like the smartest move Sony could've done. Makes me curious what their holiday bundle ends up being if a standard PS4 already comes with Uncharted 4.
OléGunner;216365728 said:
It is a nice honeypot for the flies tho.
*. *. *
Kinda sad our leakers have been taken away, but at least we have a general idea.
I do think summer is a bad time for generalizations, primetime is when we'll see whether uhd drives matter.
Right now, the x1 looks like the 4k game console on the surface, despite having a 1.2 TF GPU. "Only console with Hdr + 4k output + uhd 4k Blu ray support" will be expensive to combat.
Not having UHD Blu support might hurt US sales, but without knowing what the actual retail price impact of including the drives in the slim & pro, it is hard to judge the decision right now.
The "star" will be a entry level Cod bundle just like last year.
Not having Blu Ray didn't hurt the 360 so I think the PS4 will be fine. I'm also one of these skeptics regarding UHD as a viable medium since pretty much everything for movies and TV has been taken to streaming services. It's not like games where the vast majority are still sold as packaged goods.
Still the S is a great piece of hardware. I'd probably buy one if it was available in Japan and Ninja Gaiden 2 was BC on it. It's ridiculous just how much more appealing it is to the dreadful original design.
Still the S is a great piece of hardware. I'd probably buy one if it was available in Japan and Ninja Gaiden 2 was BC on it. It's ridiculous just how much more appealing it is to the dreadful original design.
In the long run, you're right. But the thing is, if you're an early 4K adopter, why wouldn't you want to best means to watch movies? And while streaming is a nice option, it can't touch UHD in regards to quality for your bad ass 4K screen.
I'm aware of all of that, I just don't think it's going to wind up being a significant portion of the market now because people are shifting away from ownership of films and TV in general. Only time will tell, though.
CosmicQueso
Member
Streaming in video took hold because, for many years, studios saw it as ancillary to the DVD market. The vast majority of video content for years was sold as packaged goods as digital services were emerging and growing. Packaged was big and safe and selling well. Streaming was an interesting way of getting revenues from the catalog.
Now, streaming has become the preferred method of consuming video content, so much so that the company that would most benefit from UHD BR adoption have chosen to not include a drive in its new flagship console.
There are parallels to this in the gaming space. Digital Distribution is a growing portion of games sales, and streaming game services are expanding. But packaged is still big and a majority of sales.
Getting away from the short term, fairly insignificant conversation of how the lack of a UHD drive impacts sales of two plastic boxes in one holiday period, perhaps this is a prelude to what may happen in the games space at some point in the next decade.
I understand how games and video content are different. I just find it odd that some (not you) are so content to see the physical medium for delivering 4K content be discarded.
It's fairly easy to see a scenario where the same thing happens in the games space, where DD and streaming replace physical media.
Just strange that the some of the same people that would be adamantly against physical media going away in games are so okay with it going away for other media.
Again, not calling you out or saying you're wrong, we should all just be thinking about the bigger picture more often.
That being said, the market will decide, and if it decides to go digital for games as well as media, then so be it. I imagine the complete shift to digital only is somewhat inevitable.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Thanks, Abdiel. I appreciate your insights, as always.
One could argue that the rate of adoption of 4k physical movies will not be very similar to the rate of adoption of 4k physical games.
The games are the same and cost effectively the same, while 4k blurays are around 2x the price of the standard bluray (and sometimes even more). And bluray was already a hard sell compared to DVD back in the day.
The games are the same and cost effectively the same, while 4k blurays are around 2x the price of the standard bluray (and sometimes even more). And bluray was already a hard sell compared to DVD back in the day.
slavesnyder
Member
Who's FOMO?
It means fear of missing out. Keeping up with the Joneses more or less.
slavesnyder
Member
Thanks, Meier.
I learn so much in here. If it only would impress the ladies...
CosmicQueso
Member
I wish the same.
I'm becoming more and more resigned to thinking FOMO is why season passes, DLC, iterative consoles, ultimate team stuff, why all of this stuff sells so incredibly well.
There's something inherent in the core gamer market that means that if someone else has a particular skin, or gets 1 frame per second better performance, or can use some weapon, well I need to have that too.
Getting philosophical, something something always chasing feelings of gaming joy experienced in youth that cannot be recaptured, something something lack of fulfillment, something something our own mortality and trying to be in control.
tattooed_dwarf
Member
Is that number only for Slim like you imply?
360 family total
Between mobile and PC, we're already at two (effectively) digital only gaming platforms, and consoles are already 30%+ digital, so I think we're pretty far along the road now.
LordRaptor
Member
Yeah, I was going to make the same point.
The major difference in how we got to that point on those platforms being form factor of hardware in the mobile space, and retail disinterest in serving consumers in the PC space.
Interestingly, given Nintendo is affected by both of those factors, it might be Nintendo to "blink first" out of the big three and embrace all digital.
There's a big distinction between games and videos coming through streaming though. Input latency is far worse than a lower quality image in terms of the user experience. I think streaming games is still a ways off, but it's going to be interesting to see how this area develops over the next decade.
That said, digital in general is inevitably the future of the industry even though I prefer physical myself (we get ripped off in Europe and you can often find titles well below RRP on release day). I'm not sure when or if we'll start seeing digital only boxes though. I think the huge backlash to the Xbox One will mean that this is something we don't see with the PS5 or whatever. Microsoft and Sony would have to have absolute certainty that they're both going that route when they do so.
That said, digital in general is inevitably the future of the industry even though I prefer physical myself (we get ripped off in Europe and you can often find titles well below RRP on release day). I'm not sure when or if we'll start seeing digital only boxes though. I think the huge backlash to the Xbox One will mean that this is something we don't see with the PS5 or whatever. Microsoft and Sony would have to have absolute certainty that they're both going that route when they do so.
Rumors indicate Nintendo was considering going digital only with NX. Same for Microsoft and Xbox One originally. I suspect Sony might have considered it as well for Vita and PS4 had PSP Go not gone so catastrophically bad for them.
It'll be interesting to see who might offer digital only variants of hardware in the future too. I could see a cheaper disc-less Xbox One or PS4 being a thing at some point.
Yea we'll see. I know it's not indicative of much but looking at Amazon and GameStop bestsellers the Pro is doing very well it seems.
The new price for all ps4s seems to be doing ok but we'll see how things look next week.
LordRaptor
Member
Yeah, there was an MCV rumour reported, and as MCV is the trade press for UK games retail, there was huge pushback on it, but Nintendos UK retail presence has been negligible even at the height of the Wii era which is why I consider them to be in a similar spot to PC gaming regarding how much benefit they get from dedicated retail presence.
The WiiUs performance has likely cemented that position more globally.
mejin
Member
Darth Smurf X
Member
HAHAHahahahahhaahahahha.... how have I never noticed this? Amazing.
Also, I'm glad this thread exists, so I'm not forced into that other one. I'm also glad I didn't boost my 3DS numbers above XBO like others were.
Great Analysis. I agree with what you say. I think the only reason BD vs. Digital movies is so skewed more towards digital now than gaming is the 20-something vs. 60-something price tags (using US$ numbers).
Yep, we have gone well past the point of no return. The only thing I question is if Sony is going to go all digital via "selling" on PS Store, or in the 10 year future everything will be streamed via PS Now.............
tattooed_dwarf
Member
Yep, thought so, thanks for confirmation. I kinda knew it but I had to ask since he used same figure for slim in other thread.
Streaming/digital took hold for 4 reasons. 1) The cost was zero for things like YouTube, and next to zero for things like NetFlix. 2) The quality is good enough for the 99%. 3)The studios made moves against rental places which helped drive them out of business. 4)And piracy is/was super easy. The upshot being, used physical goods were near worthless, as happened with cds.
Console gaming is different in that new, highly desired product is not cheap, and used goods retain value. Further, pirating is hard, and the major producers cannot lean on Gamestop because Gamestop holds a lot of power. The markets are different. Will this change in the next 20 years. My guess is that as long as used product retains value, the answer is no.
Personally, with the exception of books, the only reason I don't care about physical is that I hate clutter. I reserve my shelf space solely for books because for some reason I find reading on screens distracting and I cannot concentrate as well. But music, video, and games? No way I want hundreds of cds, blus, and game discs fucking with my Feng.
You need to meet different ladies.
Well, if you are lumping mobile, pc, and console together, sure, but that would distort things. EA, UBI, Gamestop, SIE, etc are primarily in the business of console gaming. And as long as a new-ish console game discs are worth $20-$40 used, there will be a hard cap on how many are going to go digital in console gaming. IMHO, of course.
Thanks for your insight as always. Any word on how FFXV is doing lately by the way? I'm curious if the delay impacted anything.
Mikey Jr.
Gold Member
At first lack of uhd was confusing. I was kind of mad.
But honestly, I can count on 1 hand how many dvds I bought.
Blurays? Fucking zero.
Movies are a "watch one time and never see it again" type of media for me. That's why Netflix works for me. Is the picture amazing? Not really. But its enough, and the convenience outweighs the negatives.
4k Netflix is just icing on the cake.
But honestly, I can count on 1 hand how many dvds I bought.
Blurays? Fucking zero.
Movies are a "watch one time and never see it again" type of media for me. That's why Netflix works for me. Is the picture amazing? Not really. But its enough, and the convenience outweighs the negatives.
4k Netflix is just icing on the cake.
Picture quality isn't the only type of quality. We binged the first season of Broadchurch on the weekend and I can't remember the last time an actual movie has held my attention like that. Movies are kinda shit compared to high quality 6-12 hour episodic drama.
Broadchurch season 2 is kinda crap, btw. Season one is really good though.
Young and inexperienced? Placing significant self-worth on being a member of "the elite" in a hobby amongst their friends?
Older people would tend to being reduced in playtime and so not be so concerned with having 100% of everything the best, since they could never utilize it to its highest effectiveness with their play time. Therefore, would not think it's related to chasing joys from childhood. Just from my perspective, anyways. Definitely not a Nintendo mindset since N64, though, so maybe it's the "trap" of being the generational leader, when that leadership is perceived as tech-based?
slavesnyder
Member
I had the same reaction, and I think it stems from buying habits established before streaming became so prevalent. I was banking on the Neo having a 4k-disc player since Sony has a history of pushing physical media devices (PS1 = CDs, PS2 = DVDs, PS3 = BR), and then when it revealed that it wasn't in the system, it made me reconsider my plans. However, the more I thought about it, I realized that I pretty much stream everything now, with the exception that I'll buy discs for movies I know I'll watch multiple times (and yet, even those sit on the shelf above the TV collecting dust).
So, maybe not including the UHD drive is not a big deal after all? I'd imagine that their market research shows the same as my anecdotal story, especially after the IHS report showed the really minor difference in price between including a BR drive or a UHD drive.
slavesnyder
Member
By now it should be clear that it was a cunning plan of Sony, announcing the neo and spreading PS4k rumours via SonyGAF. Forcing MS into believing UHD was a thing. Now they sit there with a bulletpoint where even FOMO (thanks) turns away in desinterrest, and a BOM that's like an iron ball attached to their feet.
This is pure evil.
This is pure evil.
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