Support NeoGAF

[KillerMan91]

Same IDG that had this chart at the the start of last gen.

I will take their predictions with the grain of salt.

Edit. Lol. Mixed IDG and IDG

Edit 2. Lol it seems they are the same company after all so the chart applies.

 

[mr_toa]

Same IDG that had this chart at the the start of last gen.

I will take their predictions with the grain of salt.

Indeed - my first thought also

 

[Javin98]

Read further.


At the end of April I don't see the PS4 being at 22.25m. It was at 20.2m at the beginning of March, and did 1.7m in January and February combined. March and April won't be adding 2 million.

I'm not Zhuge or anything, but if it's as of May 1, then I guesstimate the split to be 21.7m:12.3m, with any additional sales past 34m being split to both, but with >75% of said sales going to the PS4.

I just doubt that the XB1 has crossed 12 million at the end of April. So until Microsoft announces sold through figures (which they never will) or the numbers get leaked, both our estimations could be wrong.

 

[Alo0oy]

This thread is full of USA = World mentality.

Never mind the growth in EU, or the absolutely ridiculous growth in Asia & the Middle East, those markets don't count because reasons?

The PS4 had plenty of shit months on NPD over the past 18 months, why do you think it kept up with the PS2 & Wii when it had a lot of mediocre months on NPD & shit sales in Japan?

Growth.

 

[EventHorizon]

"if I remove data points to dismiss a gaming console, things look rosier! Please also ignore the fact that the expanded market also included a great deal of ps2 sales and even a lot of 360 sales. But those consoles were also a fad anyway. Did I mention fad?"

What point are you trying to make? This gen's consoles are the least subsidized and have mostly existed under a weakened economy. Motion controls were a fad which is evident by the PS4 not including them and the XB1 having to drop them. It is also evident by the fact that the Wii U is but a faded shadow of the Wii.

The fact is that this gen has done well even with many factors against it, and will get even better as those factors go away. Price cuts and VR will be two major driving events that will boost sales.

 

[Kathian]

110m is very low for 2019, how can it be if sales are better than their previous model for both consoles? (and in the case of the PS4, the second best ever)

Based on the big fall in software sales on last gen its clear the main user base is already on the new systems. The rest of the audience on last gen fell away from console gaming.

I think they'llnfall short of 100M.

 

[Kathian]

This thread is full of USA = World mentality.

Never mind the growth in EU, or the absolutely ridiculous growth in Asia & the Middle East, those markets don't count because reasons?

The PS4 had plenty of shit months on NPD over the past 18 months, why do you think it kept up with the PS2 & Wii when it had a lot of mediocre months on NPD & shit sales in Japan?

Growth.

New markets hardly ever take up consoles in big numbers and America is a big driver for Playstation (meanwhile Europe has cannibalised 360 sales) - consoles have so far proven to be a cultural phenomenon, but to new countries they make less sense compared to the competition.

 

[Alo0oy]

Based on the big fall in software sales on last gen its clear the main user base is already on the new systems. The rest of the audience on last gen fell away from console gaming.

I think they'llnfall short of 100M.

Last gen out of ~160 million users, only 20 million boughy Call of Duty.

 

[Javin98]

This thread is full of USA = World mentality.

Never mind the growth in EU, or the absolutely ridiculous growth in Asia & the Middle East, those markets don't count because reasons?

The PS4 had plenty of shit months on NPD over the past 18 months, why do you think it kept up with the PS2 & Wii when it had a lot of mediocre months on NPD & shit sales in Japan?

Growth.

While I don't agree with everything, I agree with the bolded. Europe is especially becoming increasingly important for the PS4. And the PS4 hit 1 million in the Middle East not too long ago. There are definitely some emerging markets for consoles and a few like Japan are slowly dying.

 

[NateDrake]

This thread is full of USA = World mentality.

Never mind the growth in EU, or the absolutely ridiculous growth in Asia & the Middle East, those markets don't count because reasons?

The PS4 had plenty of shit months on NPD over the past 18 months, why do you think it kept up with the PS2 & Wii when it had a lot of mediocre months on NPD & shit sales in Japan?

Growth.

I don't think many will deny that EU and other regions are a major reason (if not the reason) the PS4 is performing so well worldwide. US market is doing well but not amazing. Japan is...well...it's Japan. EU and other regions have supplied more than 50% of overall PS4 sales, which is amazing.

 

[Alo0oy]

New markets hardly ever take up consoles in big numbers and America is a big driver for Playstation (meanwhile Europe has cannibalised 360 sales) - consoles have so far proven to be a cultural phenomenon, but to new countries they make less sense compared to the competition.

This post is exactly my point.

& just FYI, out of 87-90 million PS3s, only 25 million came from USA.

 

[Dirtyshubb]

While initially it may seem bad for the industry if the total overall sales are lowered, on a singular one this gen I'm willing to bet is going to dwarf last gen for Sony in terms of profit. Not only have they come out the gate with a much smaller loss (instantly made up through plus and a game) but adding plus means they are going to make much more money which is the main driving force for companies. Also, vr is an unknown factor and I personally think it will help Sony a lot in adding growth to their share of the market.

Of course Microsoft is a different matter, where they have already lost So much that who knows how it will end up for them. Nintendo on the other hand have managed quite well to not let the drop in sales hit them as much as it could have, adding amiibos, new lines of figures etc. Will just help that.

So will on the surface it looks bad it could actually be much worse and on some cases it's better than people realise.

 

[nelsonroyale]

but not faster than the Wii

So...? The Wii was the Harry Potter of consoles. PS4 is more like a Sword of Fire and Ice...It is doing well.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Okay, let's say I accept this premise.

Where do you think console growth will come from, then? Or do you think consoles are now permanently relegated to minority status in the gaming industry -- that consoles have no real way to reach new customers?

That would be a huge downgrade not just from last generation, but (perhaps even particularly) the generation before that, when consoles dominated the gaming landscape and seem poised to become the de facto way that people played games.

Maybe VR and price drops can shake the picture a bit, especially VR, but I do think that the console market shrink is a reality console makers are taking into account and already have when designing the current generation systems. The situation might change when the mobile gaming market saturates or when customers there get tired of the quality and diversity that mobile game prices bring: Freemium/F2P or game prices being acceptable or if under $4-5 does not give a lot of headroom to each developer/publisher despite the fact some of them thrive in such conditions or have been so far. Whether we agree on the causes of this phenomenon or not (and whether this is even sustainable or not... btw, I do not think it is), it is hard not accept that games are losing more and more value in gamers' eyes as time goes on, on mobile platforms games clearly are perceived not to be anywhere near a classic $50-60 value, not including how Season Passes are making console games effective price a lot higher.

When the market expectation is tons of new ultra cheap titles flooding the market every day, even great consoles and their libraries might seem barren and grossly overpriced.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Listened to the conference call. He references IDG quote of 34 million sold @ 9:08. He doesn't mention anything about it being sold-in or sold-through.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/317...re-ttwo-q4-2015-results-earnings-call-webcast

You can skip to 9:08 seconds

Any other source to back up sold-through claim? Because I'm not seeing/hearing it. transcripts?

I'd imagine we'll have a much better picture during E3 2015.

Oh fuck off. You always bring confusion into sales threads. I dont know why you keep coming back here after you've been banned 3 times. Especially for using chartz numbers.

This is my only and final post on the matter

 

[Conduit]

I'd assume IDG would be using sell through. Install base wouldn't mean shipped as consumers haven't "installed" them, right?

If it is sell trough, then Xbone barelly passed 11 mil. 11.5 is top of the iceberg.

MS doesn't have such a good sold-in/sold-trough ratio with Xbone like Sony with PS4.

I'm pretty sure that was discussed a few weeks ago in another thread that WW ratio is almost 2 : 1. So, Xbone surely didn't reach 12 mil. sold trough.

 

[[Call-Me-G]]

I guess it's :

XBO : 12-12.5 M
PS4 : 21.5-22 M

XBO will probably reach 80 M while PS4 will be at 110 M at the end of 8th gen'

 

[mo60]

Via take two.

Forecast over 50m as of end of 2015.

Forecast 110m as of end of 2019.

So the PS4 will end up like the Wii if this is true?
Or is the xbox one going to end up selling less than 30 million by then which I think is impossible.

 

[spekkeh]

110 seems about right, 80:30 PS4/XB1, I too think the sales are slightly front loaded and we'll just see them steadily truck on. Wii opened up games consoles to a lot of people, but there's no breakaway casual appeal now. Morpheus is too expensive and probably too niche. Or it must be QoL, but then the uptick for PS and XB would be somewhere in 2019 (though I could imagine QoL being targeted more at elderly who might not be interested in game consoles)

 

[Chobel]

XBO will probably reach 80 M in 2019 while PS4 will be at 110 M at the end of 8th gen'

These are very unlikely sales number especially the XBO number.

 

[Delusibeta]

ITT: people grossly underestimating the Xbone. 50mil minimum.

 

[Javin98]

I guess it's :

XBO : 12-12.5 M
PS4 : 21.5-22 M

XBO will probably reach 80 M in 2019 while PS4 will be at 110 M at the end of 8th gen'

Dafuq? The XB1 will never be close to 80 million in sales. Even 50 million sold through is quite generous.

ITT: people grossly underestimating the Xbone. 50mil minimum.

50 million minimum in a world where Microsoft never pulled the DRM shit, maybe.

 

[[Call-Me-G]]

These are very unlikely sales number especially the XBO number.

By the end of the generation, if it lasts 9-10 years?
XBO already outsold X360 and X360 reached these sale numbers.

There is nothing impossible.

 

[OléGunner]

I think this is where Sony got the PS4 design absolutely spot on.

Enough tech in there to satisfy the vast majority of gamers, still make a decent profit on the system whilst its scalable for future price drops.

Sure the overall market will definitely be smaller this gen 8 but if they went all Kutaragi and created a high spec'd $600 PS4, which a fair few folks seem to have wanted, I shudder to think how much tighter the market could be right now equaling less games for the library and profitability for pubs.

 

[spekkeh]

ITT: people grossly underestimating the Xbone. 50mil minimum.

Sold to whom? You think sales are going to double in the US from now on?

 

[spekkeh]

By the end of the generation, if it lasts 9-10 years?
XBO already outsold X360 and X360 reached these sale numbers.

There is nothing impossible.

2019 is 3.5 years from now. In the first 1.7 years MS sold about 11M. Linearly that would mean 33M by 2019. Where do you expect the uptick to come from?

 

[[Call-Me-G]]

2019 is 3.5 years from now. In the first 1.7 years MS sold about 11M. Linearly that would mean 33M by 2019. Where do you expect the uptick to come from?

That's where you are misunderstanding my assertion:

"XBO will probably reach 80 M in 2019 while PS4 will be at 110 M at the end of 8th gen'"
"By the end of the generation, if it lasts 9-10 years"

EDIT: I didn't realize that I wrote "in 2019" for XBO. That was a mistake, sorry.

 

[Chobel]

By the end of the generation, if it lasts 9-10 years?
XBO already outsold X360 and X360 reached these sale numbers.

There is nothing impossible.

The only way XBO will reach 360 number is if the console userbase increased from last gen, and all the evidence points out that's the case at all, console market is shrinking.

XBO outsold 360 only because this gen is very front loaded this gen, expect XBO to fall behind 360 as time pass by.

 

[[Call-Me-G]]

The only way XBO will reach 360 number is if the console userbase increased from last gen, and all the evidence points out that's the case at all, console market is shrinking.

XBO outsold 360 only because this gen is very front loaded this gen, expect XBO to fall behind 360 as time pass by.

You're doing a totally hypothetical assertion. I'm relying on the past.
The console market is shrinking? Not really. The Nintendo market is shrinking. MS market and Sony market are doing very well, better than the 7th generation.

Maybe you'll be right, it seems possible, but now, based on what I see and what I saw in 2005-2013, it may be possible.

 

[Klart]

ITT: people grossly underestimating the Xbone. 50mil minimum.

Europe & Asia don't agree.

 

[Death2494]

Read further.


At the end of April I don't see the PS4 being at 22.25m. It was at 20.2m at the beginning of March, and did 1.7m in January and February combined. March and April won't be adding 2 million.

I'm not Zhuge or anything, but if it's as of May 1, then I guesstimate the split to be 21.7m:12.3m, with any additional sales past 34m being split to both, but with >75% of said sales going to the PS4.

Now that split makes a lot of sense. In JPN according to media create week 10-13 PS4 sold 158k just for the month of March 02-29. What did PS4 do in USA via NPD in March? Your 13M shipped guesstimate back in MSFT Q1 seems to be right on the money.
At least according to IDG it supports your prediction. But again guys this number isn't a hard number.

 

[Chobel]

You're doing a totally hypothetical assertion. I'm relying on the past.
The console market is shrinking? Not really. The Nintendo market is shrinking. MS market and Sony market are doing very well, better than the 7th generation.

Maybe you'll be right, it seems possible, but now, based on what I see and what I saw in 2005-2013, it may be possible.

It only appears that way because console sales are front loaded this gen.

 

[Javin98]

It only appears that way because console sales are front loaded this gen.

While I expect the XB1 to fall behind the 360 and PS3 in sales, I'm still quite confident the PS4 will eventually surpass the Wii in sales.

 

[Chobel]

While I expect the XB1 to fall behind the 360 and PS3 in sales, I'm still quite confident the PS4 will eventually surpass the Wii in sales.

Maybe if Morpheus really takes off, other than that I don't see it happening.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Curious as to why so many are saying this Gen is "front loaded" when we're still...in the front?

lol people were saying this when the PS4 first launched and now look at it. No one expected the PS4 to do this well, not even Sony anticipated it.

I'm expecting the install base split to be:

PS4 : 22.5 million
XB1 : 11.5 million

 

[Javin98]

Maybe if Morpheus really takes off, other than that I don't see it happening.

Seriously? You don't think price cuts will get the job done? Keep in mind that the PS4 is still at launch price and the sweet spot for casuals to hop in is $299.

 

[John Bender]

I guess it's :

XBO : 12-12.5 M
PS4 : 21.5-22 M

XBO will probably reach 80 M in 2019 while PS4 will be at 110 M at the end of 8th gen'

Never ever will the XBO reach 80 million.

 

[[Call-Me-G]]

Never ever will the XBO reach 80 million.

Ooooh!! Sorry, I was thinking "by the end of the 8th gen'", just as PS4.
That's why no one agree with me ! I'm quite blind, maybe.

 

[Panajev2001a]

I think this is where Sony got the PS4 design absolutely spot on.

Enough tech in there to satisfy the vast majority of gamers, still make a decent profit on the system whilst its scalable for future price drops.

Sure the overall market will definitely be smaller this gen 8 but if they went all Kutaragi and created a high spec'd $600 PS4, which a fair few folks seem to have wanted, I shudder to think how much tighter the market could be right now equaling less games for the library and profitability for pubs.

If you think SCE and Kutaragi planned for the $599 price point instead of having to pick up something like that not to have an even worse bloodbath in terms of losses per unit sold then you are mistaken and perpetuating a myth that has comedy effect as its main value. PS3 suffered greatly from an unexpected massive supply chain issue with Blu-Ray components, "last minute" GPU switchover, and yes Some bits such as SACD support, 4 USB ports, and Memory Stick/Compact Flash/SD Card slots could have been shelved and it might have helped, but their impact on the cost was probably not massive.

Kutaragi's legacy is way bigger than PS3... SNES audio processor, PS1, PS2, PSP, and PS3... Not to mention the birth of SCE as a unit, the consolidation of Sony semiconductor efforts, the late for Sony but a good try nonetheless joint venture with Samsung on LCD panels (started under Kutaragi soon after he got the position to make a push for such deals), etc... Initial price issues aside, PS3 too was a great PlayStation entry, but it is unfair to say that he could only preside on over engineered super costly products.

 

[Javin98]

Ooooh!! Sorry, I was thinking "by the end of the 8th gen'", just as PS4.
That's why no one agree with me ! I'm quite blind, maybe.

Dude, the 8th gen could end in 2025 and the XB1 will still never reach 80 million. That's the whole point!

 

[alexandros]

I hope these predictions are true assuming that PC gaming and Steam Machines will pick up the slack. The reduced relevance of traditional console platforms would be great news for the future of gaming. However, if that part of the audience is lost to mobile then I see dark days ahead for core gaming.

 

[[Call-Me-G]]

Dude, the 8th gen could end in 2025 and the XB1 will still never reach 80 million. That's the whole point!

Ok good You're absolutely right!

 

[system11]

Seems pretty reasonable as an estimation, gen 7 was distorted by the Wii suddenly going casual while that market then vanished for gen 8.

 

[jelly]

This generation does seem unsteady, not that it was rushed but they didn't seem to have a core console experience in mind, it's a mash of PC and streaming devices while being very much work in progress. Even if sales don't reach greater heights I think they are creating a base platform to exploit with mature services and full backwards compatibility on new consoles along with new devices like VR. This generation feels like building bridges between cities.

 

[mo60]

Seriously? You don't think price cuts will get the job done? Keep in mind that the PS4 is still at launch price and the sweet spot for casuals to hop in is $299.

I think a price drop will provide a boost, but it won`t boost it to selling significantly higher than whatever it sold last year. A price drop will probably make the console sell closer to 17-18 million instead of 14-16 million.

 

[Javin98]

Ok good You're absolutely right!

Can't tell if this is sarcasm, but I'm sorry if I sounded harsh. But by now, it's almost a fact that the XB1 will never reach 80 million.

I hope these predictions are true assuming that PC gaming and Steam Machines will pick up the slack. The reduced relevance of traditional console platforms would be great news for the future of gaming. However, if that part of the audience is lost to mobile then I see dark days ahead for core gaming.

Not sure what Steam Machines and PC's have to do with this thread, but keep on dreaming! I know you said you will never buy a console, but keep this out of this thread.

I think a price drop will provide a boost, but it won`t boost it to selling significantly higher than whatever it sold last year. A price drop will probably make the console sell closer to 17-18 million instead of 14-16 million.

Agreed. The PS4 definitely wouldn't start selling, like 30 million next year, but a YoY increase of 4 million is still pretty good.

 

[mo60]

Sold to whom? You think sales are going to double in the US from now on?

It`s around 7 million in the US right now. I expect by 2019 that the xbox one would have sold at least over 20 million in the US and maybe as high as 25 million(maybe even 30 million if we are lucky) if it continues to sell around 6+ million in the US per year. The rest of the world should be at least a third to a fourth of the amount sold in the US by 2019. 40+ million is possible by 2019 for the xbox one, but that will depend on the amount it actually sell in the US mostly and whatever else it sells in the rest of the world.

 

[mo60]

Can't tell if this is sarcasm, but I'm sorry if I sounded harsh. But by now, it's almost a fact that the XB1 will never reach 80 million.


Not sure what Steam Machines and PC's have to do with this thread, but keep on dreaming! I know you said you will never buy a console, but keep this out of this thread.


Agreed. The PS4 definitely wouldn't start selling, like 30 million next year, but a YoY increase of 4 million is still pretty good.

It may sell as much as 20 million per year eventually if it`s lucky, but that will probably be only for like a year or two.I only expect it to sell around 20-21 million per year in whatever year it starts to sell over 20 million per year.

 

[Javin98]

It may sell as much as 20 million per year eventually if it`s lucky, but that will probably be only for like a year or two.

Yep, mostly during the peak years. I'm guessing either next year or the year after that will see sales peak. After that, it will be a slow decline.

 

[OléGunner]

If you think SCE and Kutaragi planned for the $599 price point instead of having to pick up something like that not to have an even worse bloodbath in terms of losses per unit sold then you are mistaken and perpetuating a myth that has comedy effect as its main value. PS3 suffered greatly from an unexpected massive supply chain issue with Blu-Ray components, "last minute" GPU switchover, and yes Some bits such as SACD support, 4 USB ports, and Memory Stick/Compact Flash/SD Card slots could have been shelved and it might have helped, but their impact on the cost was probably not massive.

Kutaragi's legacy is way bigger than PS3... SNES audio processor, PS1, PS2, PSP, and PS3... Not to mention the birth of SCE as a unit, the consolidation of Sony semiconductor efforts, the late for Sony but a good try nonetheless joint venture with Samsung on LCD panels (started under Kutaragi soon after he got the position to make a push for such deals), etc... Initial price issues aside, PS3 too was a great PlayStation entry, but it is unfair to say that he could only preside on over engineered super costly products.

I'm not claiming anything Kutaragi did wasn't right! The PS3 is one of my favourite consoles ever and I loved the technical ambition it had with Blu-ray and all the extra bits and bobs with card slots etc.

Just tried to point out, maybe rather poorly, that his ambition in today's climate might have hampered the PS4 achieving it's current amazing success and impacted the overall market size more severely.

Kutaragi was a genius and astute businessman that should be commended for what he did with PlayStation beyond the technical aspects as you point out.