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[ant_]

In the age of partisan hostility, I’d like to take a step back and discuss a few key issues in our political system by presenting them with a relatively balanced framing. The first topic I’m going to attempt to frame is the minimum wage. Having a nuanced/complete view of the issue will positively effect everyone.

I know that most people on this board are left-leaning (myself included). Please completely engage with the argument against the minimum wage. Give it a fair shake.

Should we increase the minimum wage to $15 an hour?

Yes

1. We need to pay low income workers a living wage, not a minimum wage
2. Can't justify CEO salaries if employees are paid a pittance
3. Wealth is dramatically concentrated in the top 1%, need more money in the 99% to stimulate spending and economy.

No

1. Will reduce the amount of available jobs - employers can't afford to keep the same workforce
2. Will set a skill floor - a job now has a minimum value. Those with lower skills or education will no longer be qualified to work
3. Reduces economic mobility of lower skilled workers - the real minimum wage is always zero.

Now, what actually happens in the real world? The arguments for minimum wage are often made in terms of intention, not results. I think we all want the same thing: we want to reduce the amount of poor people, and we want people to be treated justly. What's the best way to do this? What do economists/people say?

Economic Research – The Effects of Minimum Wage on Employment

Department of Labor Mythbusters – The Minimum Wage

Economic Policies Institute – Survey of US Economists

What a minimum wage means for women and workers of color

I also recommend just watching the discussions of economists for arguments against the minimum wage (Milton Friedman, Thomas Sowell, many more). If anything, the best judgement for the efficacy of a minimum wage is through the lens of economics, not the lens of social policy. Most economists against the minimum wage believe that the minimum wage harms the poor more severely.

The minimum wage law very cleverly is misnamed. The real minimum wage is zero. That is what many inexperienced and low skilled people receive as a result of legislation that makes it illegal to pay them what they are currently worth to an employer.

I’ll also provide a quote from Robert Reich, a brilliant man in favor of the minimum wage. Note: Robert Reich is an expert in social policy, not economics. He believes the minimum wage will boost the amount of jobs by increasing the spending power of the middle class.

If the minimum wage in 1968 had simply kept up with inflation it would be more than $10 today. If it also kept up with the added productivity of American workers since then, it would be more than $21 an hour…

More money in people's pockets means more demand for goods and services, which means more jobs not fewer jobs.

Finally, a great article from the Atlantic (by far my favorite journalism source on the internet) that explores and fairly represents both sides of the issue: Should we raise the minimum wage? 11 questions and answers.

I hope to have represented both sides fairly & accurately. I started my research with the framing that a $15 minimum wage is obviously the right decision. I finish it by being markedly unsure.

The Question
Mosts economists agree in the following: minimum wage will decrease poverty for a segment of individuals. The real question is - is the trade-off worth it? Does it benefit the middle class moreso than the poor? Is there a better solution to help the poor than establishing a minimum wage? (the most common idea is the earned income tax credit)

 

[GuitarGuruu]

I do think it has its benefits and people absolutely deserve a living wage, however it will be a long time before anything begins to change.

 

[xkramz]

Things will get pricier due to the increase of Minimum wage. So it'll even out again

 

[kirblar]

By naming a wage point (15) and not going into the massive variance of regional effects in response to that point, you've completely missed the biggest issue w it-namely that it would devastate low cost of living areas nationwide.

The 15 dollar number is something arbitrary created by a marketing campaign, and that campaign is only targeting urban areas.

 

[Kill3r7]

It should be a living wage.

 

[adj_noun]

Now, what actually happens in the real world?

We're gonna find out statewide here in WA. Our min wage is getting raised to $13.50 over a few years. It just went from $9.47 to $11 on Jan 1.

 

[aeolist]

all the arguments against $15 are just arguments against having a minimum wage at all. that discussion is over.

it should probably be higher than $15 most places, but it would be a start.

 

[Toki767]

Things will get pricier due to the increase of Minimum wage. So it'll even out again

So what you're saying is we should actually just make everything cheaper.

I'd be down with that.

 

[Dude Abides]

I'm surprised that DoL site is still up. Nobody tell the administration!

 

[ZOONAMI]

$15 an hour I actually do think is fairly livable as long as you don't have kids.

Less than half of that is ridiculous.

 

[flkraven]

If the minimum wage you pay someone for full time work isn't enough for them to pay rent, feed themselves, and get the necessities (phone, car, toiletries), then it should be raised. And any future minimum wage should be tied to inflation. I don't know if $15 is necessarily the answer, especially since the cost of living in some states is far more than others, but single-digit minimum wage is a joke.

 

[backflip10019]

Things will get pricier due to the increase of Minimum wage. So it'll even out again

... which would massively fuck the middle class yet again due to their wages stagnating while costs increase.

I'm personally for increasing minimum wages to become livable wages on a region-by-region area based on costs of living.

 

[Vanillalite]

I guess I'm for it, but I feel like we missed the boat on this. Like we needed to raise it as we went along. Now we are hitting a point where technology is taking away more and more jobs. I'm not sure how much a minimum wage helps vs it just accelerating automation.

The need towards a basic minimum income is needed sooner rather than later when shit has already hit the fan.

I guess since that ain't gonna happen anytime soon in the US we try the minimum wage thing and see how it goes for a few years.

 

[kirblar]

all the arguments against $15 are just arguments against having a minimum wage at all. that discussion is over.

it should probably be higher than $15 most places, but it would be a start.

You are completely and utterly wrong. That the argument about whether we should have one us relatively settled in no way means the argument over where we should set it Nationally is settled.

 

[ant_]

By naming a wage point (15) and not going into the massive variance of regional effects in response to that point, you've completely missed the biggest issue w it-namely that it would devastate low cost of living areas nationwide.

The 15 dollar number is something arbitrary created by a marketing campaign, and that campaign is only targeting urban areas.

I agree with you; I was having a hard time on whether to phrase this as "the minimum wage" or labeling a wage point, as you noted. Regional differences are key in exploring the compromises between both views. Even in urban areas, as you've noted, there is heavy argument against the $15 minimum wage for fear that it will reduce employment levels & reduce the economic viability of the poor.

I'm continuing to try and find up-to-date information on the situation in Seattle - the last report I've been able to locate was around mid-2016 and there didn't seem to be a consensus on its effect.

 

[Mr.Mike]

There are better ways to achieve what people want to achieve with a minimum wage. You mention that it might reduce employment, and it would reduce employment at the margin. How big of a margin is uncertain, and would vary by region, but in the short run it would definitely reduce employment. But consider also the longer term effects of that disemployment. When people aren't working they aren't developing their human capital through work experience that they might use to be able to demand higher wages in the future. So more than a short term decrease in employment the policy might reduce wage growth and people's lifetime earnings in the long term. Those who do have jobs at the minimum wage will benefit, but at the expense of others, including some of the very people the policy hopes to benefit.

 

[Phrozenflame500]

Ideally the minimum wage would be set locally according to cost of living. Even more ideally it'd be set on a sector by sector basis based on union/corporate agreements enforced by the government.

Neither of which will ever happen in America, so I'm tentatively in favour of a small increase although $15's pushing it.

 

[Steel]

I don't know about a $15 minimum wage specifcally, but the arguments against raising the minimum wage runs hollow once you realize that the minimum wage, adjusted for inflation was higher in the 60s than it is now. At the same time, the economy is much larger now than it was then. That being said, adjusted for inflation, the current wage should be $9-10 if we want to match the past. But, as I said the economy is much larger today than it was.

Here's a nice graph showing the minimum wage adjusted for inflation:
http://money.cnn.com/interactive/economy/minimum-wage-since-1938/(can't show image because it's an interactive graph)

That being said, even discussions like this are kinda pointless in the face of the Republican party where even discussing this issue on a national level is heresy.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Now, what actually happens in the real world? The arguments for minimum wage are often made in terms of intention, not results. I think we all want the same thing: we want to reduce the amount of poor people, and we want people to be treated justly.

Citation needed.

 

[kirblar]

I agree with you; I was having a hard time on whether to phrase this as "the minimum wage" or labeling a wage point, as you noted. Regional differences are key in exploring the compromises between both views. Even in urban areas, as you've noted, there is heavy argument against the minimum wage for fear that it will reduce employment levels & reduce the economic viability of the poor.

I'm continuing to try and find up-to-date information on the situation in Seattle - the last report I've been able to locate was around mid-2016 and there didn't seem to be a consensus on its effect.

We really just don't have the data yet re: Washington state.

 

[Cyrano]

Minimum wage needs to adjust with inflation if it's going to have long-term positive effects.

 

[ZOONAMI]

... which would massively fuck the middle class yet again due to their wages stagnating while costs increase.

Newsflash, wage stagnation has been happening for decades.

Median household income in 1978 was like 22k, which adjusted for inflation is 70+k now.

Median household income now is like 55k.

A $15 dollar minimum wage is a step in the right direction of fighting wage stagnation.

This would also be the minimum wage for large corporations.

Under 100 employee businesses would likely have a lower min wage in the $10-12 range.

We don't need to cry for large corporations losing a bit in their margins if it means a better quality of life for their employees.

Prices may rise a bit, but not a 50%-100% rise just because we move min wage from single digits to $15. It's a net gain.

 

[aeolist]

I don't know about a $15 minimum wage specifcally, but the arguments against raising the minimum wage runs hollow once you realize that the minimum wage, adjusted for inflation was higher in the 60s than it is now. At the same time, the economy is much larger now than it was then.

Here's a nice graph showing the minimum wage adjusted for inflation:
http://money.cnn.com/interactive/economy/minimum-wage-since-1938/(can't show image because it's an interactive graph)

and that's not even considering productivity growth

That being said, even discussions like this are kinda pointless in the face of the Republican party where even discussing this issue on a national level is heresy.

the left can't just focus on how awful the right is, even when trump is president. we need to present a better way forward for the country if we ever want to take power.

 

[The Albatross]

I can see arguments against a $15/hr national minimum wage, because $15 in Boston is very different than $15 in rural Iowa, but I support it in my state and would support it in most other states. Massachusetts is currently at $11/hr and I think it's set to go up to $13 in 2 years but I forget what happened with that.

But I don't think it makes as much sense from a national level. I think the federal minimum wage should come up from $7.25, but IIRC, the majority of states already have a minimum wage that is higher than the federal. And when you look at the states that have the federal minimum wage, all of them are fairly rural.

 

[ant_]

Citation needed.

If you're implying that some people don't care about the poor, I'd really like to avoid the thread going this direction. Let's try and have a discussion on the pros/cons of both sides & avoid making moral judgement.

This is about the policy itself, not a discussion of the current GOP or republican party. Taking the discussion this direction is pretty toxic to any rational discourse.

 

[Piggus]

Here's how Oregon decided to do it:

Enacted by the 2016 Oregon Legislature, Senate Bill 1532 establishes a series of annual minimum wage rate increases beginning July 1, 2016 through July 1, 2022. Beginning July 1, 2023, the minimum wage rate will be indexed to inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a figure published by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In addition to a new standard minimum wage rate, the bill sets out a separate rate which will apply to employers located in the urban growth boundary of a metropolitan service district. (Currently, only the Portland metropolitan area has an urban growth boundary.) Finally, a third rate will apply within certain "nonurban" counties named in the bill:

Also, in Oregon you CANNOT pay someone who receives tips less than minimum wage like you can in a lot of other states, so being a waiter/waitress here can earn you some pretty good money.

The main concern most people seem to have is how it impacts people making two or three dollars above minimum right now. Do they get compensated the same way minimum wage workers do, or do they now just earn the minimum despite having a better position/more experience? Thankfully most companies seem to be adding the yearly MW increase on top of yearly merit increases. So for example those who would normally get a $1 raise get $1.50 instead. At least that's how my company is doing things.

 

[krae_man]

We're gonna find out statewide here in WA. Our min wage is getting raised to $13.50 over a few years. It just went from $9.47 to $11 on Jan 1.

Minimum wage in Ontario went from $6.85 in 2004 to $10.25 in 2010(and shortly after got annual increases tied to inflation it's at $11.40 now). Surprise surprise everything worked out fine.

 

[Mr.Mike]

The specific $15 dollar number is dangerous in that it would be wholly inappropriate in some places, and in other places maybe not even enough. I would be more supportive of the movement if it changed its mantra to "50% of the median wage in a county", or something like that.

 

[NoblesseOblige]

On the fence while carefully leaning towards 'yes'. In many places I would say absolutely yes there needs to be a $15 minimum wages. However as someone who grew up in rural America there is absolutely no way those small businesses are going to pay that. Ideally minimum wage would be dependent on the local economy and cost of living expenses, with smaller rural areas required to support a minimum wage different from a large city. But good luck getting government to properly utilize systems in order to peruse such legislation.

 

[BajiBoxer]

Here's how Oregon decided to do it:

The main concern most people seem to have is how it impacts people making two or three dollars above minimum right now. Do they get compensated the same way minimum wage workers do, or do they now just earn the minimum despite having a better position/more experience? Thankfully most companies seem to be adding the yearly MW increase on top of yearly merit increases. So for example those who would normally get a $1 raise get $1.50 instead. At least that's how my company is doing things.

Yeah, it varies from company to company. At my current company, I didn't get any kind of raise when the minimum wage increased.

 

[kirblar]

Here's how Oregon decided to do it:

This is pretty much what needs to be done when designing it - having the same minimums for rural/urban areas just doesn't work unless you have the rural one apply everywhere. The lowest common denominator does the least damage.

 

[Super_Cobra]

I get paid $10.50 to be an emt and help save lives.

 

[aeolist]

I can see arguments against a $15/hr national minimum wage, because $15 in Boston is very different than $15 in rural Iowa, but I support it in my state and would support it in most other states.

But I don't think it makes as much sense from a national level. I think the federal minimum wage should come up from $7.25, but IIRC, the majority of states already have a minimum wage that is higher than the federal. And when you look at the states that have the federal minimum wage, all of them are fairly rural.

every state has at least one major urban area. i live in texas, which uses the federal minimum wage, and we have a population of about 27 million people. roughly 60% of that is urban, which comes to 16 million.

the other problem is that most red states will react harshly if any cities within them try to raise their minimum wage. north carolina's HB2 is best known for the transgender bathroom ban but it also reversed charlotte's minimum wage hike and might never have passed if that hadn't been a consideration.

 

[Iksenpets]

The minimum wage definitely needs to go up. I have no idea if $15 is the appropriate value for it to rise to, because the current minimum has been allowed to fall so far behind, and there's not a whole lot of evidence for what happens if you go so far as to double it from the current baseline. Would rural areas be able to bear that? I have no idea. If we had a fully sensible government, I would say the best course would be to put in place a plan to raise it to $15 over time, but with some sort of option to halt the process after $12 or so if we start seeing adverse effects.

all the arguments against $15 are just arguments against having a minimum wage at all. that discussion is over.

it should probably be higher than $15 most places, but it would be a start.

I mean, by that logic, any argument for $15 works just as well as an argument for $100. There has to be some point at which the minimum wage is too high and becomes destructive. Debate is just over where it is. It's definitely nowhere near where we are now.

 

[Rentahamster]

Instead of all this theory crafting, we should just let some states do it and then see what happens.

 

[AndyD]

... which would massively fuck the middle class yet again due to their wages stagnating while costs increase.

I'm personally for increasing minimum wages to become livable wages on a region-by-region area based on costs of living.

Same here on regional livable wage.

And I am not sure that prices would go up to accommodate the whole of wage increases though. I think that's a red herring from what some studies say.

Another appropriate measure to me would be salary+benefits proportion caps on highest/lowest. To prevent the Walmart effect of keeping employees on part time hours and Food Stamps/Welfare while there are top level corporate record profits.

 

[kirblar]

Urban areas and blue states raising the wage on their own means the national one is effectively only mattering to those rural red state areas. That's where you have to tune it to.

 

[aeolist]

Instead of all this theory crafting, we should just let some states do it and then see what happens.

that's been happening for years but if you actually think right-wing state legislatures will pass increases just because it works well elsewhere you're delusional.

 

[DrFurbs]

What's a typical minimum wage job?

 

[Steel]

and that's not even considering productivity growth



the left can't just focus on how awful the right is, even when trump is president. we need to present a better way forward for the country if we ever want to take power.

I mean, yes, having a platform is a good thing, but it's kinda hard to get enthused about this type of thing when an entire party that's extremely unlikely to become politically irrelevant wants nothing to do with it. Honestly, I feel like by the time the country's in a position to raise the minimum wage to $15, $15 will probably be the equivalent of 7.25 now.

The specific $15 dollar number is dangerous in that it would be wholly inappropriate in some places, and in other places maybe not even enough. I would be more supportive of the movement if it changed its mantra to "50% of the median wage in a county", or something like that.

I agree $15 is dangerous. It should at least be moved a little past inflation adjusted median wage in the 60s, so >$10, though. Even considering that, though, having a specific number isn't really useful, as by the time the government is fully in sane hands to allow for changes like this, an entirely different number might be a better fit.

 

[kirblar]

I get paid $10.50 to be an emt and help save lives.

Where do you live?

 

[NoblesseOblige]

What's a typical minimum wage job?

In the US it'd be like cashiers, cooks, call center, etc. Basically jobs you'd have to offer me $30/hr to perform.

Technically servers/wait staff too, however those jobs are usually paid under minimum wage (by the organization) with the expectation of tips making the difference. They would be fired before they are paid min. wage by the business itself.

 

[SpinningBirdKick]

In anything but the short term setting and then increasing the minimum wage is just going to accelerate automation replacing humans.

Businesses eating the cost to automate increasingly becomes more attractive as an annually increasing minimum wage cost eat into profits.

 

[BajiBoxer]

While I think a minimum wage increase is important, my gut feeling is that a real socialized healthcare system would do more for helping the lower and middle classes. A lot of people I know who stick to their low wage jobs do so because of the insurance. I also think it increases a person's ability to be an entrepreneur when they don't have to worry about their own health insurance. Obamacare helped mobility a little bit, in that someone like myself or my parents would be tied to one job because of pre-existing conditions otherwise.

 

[ant_]

Instead of all this theory crafting, we should just let some states do it and then see what happens.

It's not theory crafting. Most of these opinions are formed by the study of real life effects. People can look @ the same data and draw completely different conclusions. It ultimately comes down to your belief & perspective. Economists & politicians continue to study the effects of minimum wage. The problem is a lot of effects can't be seen within small timescales. You can find studies about the effects of minimum wage all throughout history & the world.

If only we had other countries that we could study as an example...

I chose to focus on the US, which is incredibly unique relative to most countries. There are plenty of international cases to study. I encourage you to bring them up. For example, there are cases internationally where the minimum wage was used with racist intentions. Minimum wages can have incredibly negative economic effects. It's all about deciding at which point the trade-off is worth it.

 

[Ogodei]

Minimum wage needs to adjust with inflation if it's going to have long-term positive effects.

Pretty much, a permanent chaining to inflation, enshrined in law to automatically adjust every 5 years or so to match the last 5 years' worth of inflation, instead of having to have a big fight over it every decade.

After setting it to a competitive level, of course.

 

[HariKari]

It's not theory crafting. Most of these opinions are formed by the study of real life effects. People can look @ the same data and draw completely different conclusions. It ultimately comes down to your belief & perspective. Economists & politicians continue to study the effects of minimum wage. The problem is a lot of effects can't be seen within small timescales.

If only we had other countries that we could study as an example...

 

[kirblar]

The specific $15 dollar number is dangerous in that it would be wholly inappropriate in some places, and in other places maybe not even enough. I would be more supportive of the movement if it changed its mantra to "50% of the median wage in a county", or something like that.

It won't because the "Fight for 15" slogan is part of a labor-bankrolled advocacy campaign specifically targeting urban areas. It's something that's a net benefit for them in urban areas when it comes to messaging and achieving what they want, but creates an externality for the Dems of being disastrous messaging in rural areas.

 

[Pagusas]

What's a typical minimum wage job?

Mcdonalds chef.

Grocery Cashier.

Stock Person.

Clothing Store Associate.

 

[DrFurbs]

In the US it'd be like cashiers, cooks, call center, etc.

Ok for that level of education and skill, is the minimum wage not appropriate?

I have no idea how this all works, just wondering. Ideally, the cost of living would be cheaper 🤔