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Rottenwatch: AVATAR (82%)

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Jibril said:
Yep. Judging by what Solo mentioned previously. Indeed, praising Hans Zimmer, is similar to praising an entire village of Composers.
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You're pretty safe with anything released in about the past 5 years. Anything released within then with his name on it would actually be something he did.
 
Jibril said:
Hans Zimmer did:

Lion King
Prince of Egypt
Gladiator
The Dark Knight

All on my playlist.

Hans Zimmer is great. Together with Harry Gregson Williams, Steve Jablonsky ( he's stepping up, Cameron even used his My name is Lincoln in the trailer).

It is absolutely true that some of Zimmer's work isn't that good. But lord have mercy, most of his stuff is heart penetrating. Hans Zimmer reigns supreme.
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You are leaving off his crowning achievement. CRIMSON TIDE.
I still think that is one of the most influential action film scores of the last twenty years. The fact that for years afterward most trailers lifted music from it and that it is also the most recycled score in a long time. Zimmer, Gregson-Williams, Jablonsky, and others all take cues from it or at least bastardize it.

Two more very good Hans Zimmer scores are A League of Their Own and Rain Man. But Crimson Tide is the pinnacle of his movie scores in my opinion.

Horner's pinnacle was Braveheart in my opinion. His top three being Glory, Braveheart, and Apollo 13 (same year as Braveheart to boot, yet they sound so different. Which is odd coming from Horner).

Danny Elfman- my top two from him are Edward Scissorhands (one of my all time faves of any composer) and Batman.
 
mckmas8808 said:
WHOA!
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The IMAX Sydney has no seats available until Monday either.

WrikaWrek said:
Alan Silvestri would've done something epic for Avatar.
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Yes!
The past few years haven't been fantastic for his work, but the A Christmas Carol score was great, so I'm sure he could show his old magic.
 
I love Howard Shore, but he would have been all wrong for Avatar. My support would have been behind James Newton Howard, but I dont even see why we're debating who should write a score that is already out :lol
 
Sharp said:
So basically... I don't think Titanic is happening. Then again, I thought if there was one person who wouldn't like Avatar it was my sister, but apparently she really enjoyed it, so maybe we really can throw all precedent out the window.
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Do you think it can hit $1.5 Billion worldwide?
 
The only Zimmer score I really love is The Thin Red Line. Everything else just kind of runs together for me.

Malick always gets the most out of his composers, even though they hate him.
 
Yeah I don't think Howard Shore could have hit the action beats well.

That said - and I know it sounds utterly cliche these days to suggest it, especially since so many blockbusters have his scores with similar sounding cues, but John Williams would have been perfect for AVATAR. He still knows how to create an original theme that is distinct and completely memorable (despite his last score for KotS - which is a sequel). Munich still has one of my favourite scores of the decade. It would only be fair that Cameron lent his tech to Spielberg, that Spielberg should loan his Williams to Cameron - only if he promises not to damage him of course.
 
Solo said:
I love Howard Shore, but he would have been all wrong for Avatar. My support would have been behind James Newton Howard, but I dont even see why we're debating who should write a score that is already out :lol
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because it's fun.

John Williams for Avatar 2!
 
Sharp said:
Here's the problem (and it is a problem): supposing Titanic is around $350 million after the weekend (which it should be, give or take a few million and given a $60 million weekend, which is about what I would expect), the weekdays are going to drop dramatically.
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Whoops! :p

The days after Christmas act like mini-holidays, historically, while after January 1st, they start going back to normal weekdays. The weekends, too, usually suffer, since Sundays don't act like holiday Sundays (which act more like Saturdays thanks to increased evening traffic). You should also keep in mind that Christmas Day is THE biggest moviegoing day of the year. This year the box office is exceptionally lucky that both Christmas and New Year's Day (another big moviegoing day) both fall on a Friday, which hasn't happened since '98 (who'da thought), so some of the effects should be muffled this weekend, but that just means that they will be spread to the weekend after instead.
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This is true, which is why I (and others) have said this coming weekend is less important than the weekend after for Avatar's long-term trajectory.

Now, after next week I think Avatar might very well have 25%ish drops for awhile, at least on weekends, considering how good its word of mouth is and the limited 3D venues (and all the other factors I mentioned before). But that first drop--especially when it comes to the weekdays--matters a LOT. To make that somewhat more concrete, in the scenario you outlined, assuming around 25% weekly drops WITHOUT factoring in the big weekday drops would give Avatar around $14 million weekdays Monday through Thursday next week (the week after New Year's Eve weekend), and $11 million weekdays the week after that--which is pretty much impossible when you consider that the holiday traffic is mostly gone, with people either at work or school for most of the day. In fact, not only would you be looking at 28 or more consecutive days over ten million, you wouldn't even get below five million dollars a day until the seventh week. There just aren't enough people in theaters for the kind of run you're imagining here.
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Avatar is selling out evening showings and the more limited IMAX runs during the week right now. There's not a lot to preclude the same from happening during the week after the holidays. That said, that's why I looked at full week totals and projected off that: the week days will likely drop steeper than the weekends.


Another issue--and this is a deeper one--is the limited number of screens, 3D or otherwise. While Avatar's IMAX numbers are pretty much safe from other incursions for a long time, which will help soften the drop, as the year progresses even the biggest blockbusters start losing screens to other movies. *snip*
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See: Titanic. If people are still coming to the movie, it won't shed theaters.

As for the 3D screens, this actually works to Avatar's advantage. Because so much of its earnings are coming from 3D theaters (2/3 of the total run, and with higher ticket prices) and viewers have shown a preference for Avatar in 3D, the first screens to be shed will be the 2D ones, for movies like Book of Eli. Avatar in 3D will have a longer run than Avatar in 2D, which will prop up its box office due to the higher ticket prices. There's even less in 3D pipeline to shove Avatar out of the way.

Seven or eight weeks from now, when in your model Avatar is supposed to be passing Titanic, it won't have nearly as many screens, especially not 3D ones.
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See above.

Now, let's move on to your other scenario. As you said, 40% drops are normal, or at least not overwhelmingly startling, for a (well-received) blockbuster after its first few weeks. But for the reasons I outlined above (and more) Avatar's first few weeks are sort of a special case, so it might be more instructive to ignore the first $290 million or so and think of Avatar as opening this weekend to around a $60 million haul and playing like a normal blockbuster. We can make it a fairly leggy one, since it's Avatar, which by today's standards means (sadly) a 3.5 multiplier or above. Now let's see what various scenarios would mean and how they would play out:
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Again, you're looking at multipliers, and disregarding trends. If Avatar is still doing well, it won't shed theaters. And my simplified model assumes steady drops - when I think in actuality we're likely to see a drop in the first week of January when we lose the holidays, and a more steady performance from there. But that's my expectation based on how it's performing now. I can't go back and find other data to tie it to, because there isn't any.

Which is my point: you keep saying Avatar's first few weeks are a special case. I don't think we know that for sure. Not yet.

*snip*
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I think you are over-analyzing, and again looking to the wrong markers for Avatar's performance. I strongly suspect Avatar will come close to or exceed Titanic, but the first week of January will be the tell. I'll crunch the multipliers when it starts slowing down. :p

Sharp said:
It's definitely possible, but I don't think it's probable.
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Just for the record, I do.
 
Lebron said:
Michael Giacchino would be a better choice!

*folds arms*
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*scratches beard*
Giacchino is good for one thing...
the LOST *your mind is blown* theme http://www.losthatch.com/sounds/sound_effects/flashback_strings.mp3

I like him too
Scullibundo said:
Have we just started spouting off the names of composers we know? :lol

I'm in love with Morricone, but he would be about as fitting for AVATAR as Hermann.
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It'd all sound like a western set in space... for some reason :lol
 
Solo said:
You're pretty safe with anything released in about the past 5 years. Anything released within then with his name on it would actually be something he did.
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Funny. His best stuff is from the last 5 years.
 
I wont jump on the Avatar will cross Titanic bandwagon just yet. 400M is a lock and 500M can be done. But anything else, I'll wait to comment until we see its legs in 1st and 2nd weeks of January. :D
 
Came back a couple of hours ago

Cinematography/Technology = Good (real good, in fact. I fell in love with some of the shots in this movie)

Characters/Scenario = Bad (the only connection I made was with the female Na'vi and that shit better not awaken something in me).

Fun ride but I don't think I'll ever be compelled to take it again.

Some anecdotal stuff but the theater was 2/3rds full when I went to watch it (11:30am showing).
 
While we talking soundtrack, anyone else love how they repeated the 'I see you' theme throughout the movie? I noticed it a lot more second time through.
 
GhaleonEB said:
Oh, they're there in more than a few scenes. I'm actually not sure how Cameron didn't get a MPAA tag for nudity, unless alien bewbz don't count.
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I guess it depends, I think there's a few movies with boobs, and they got a PG rating!:lol
Also :lol at Solo's 10,000 post!
 
Combine said:
Heh, gotta love those free-flowing clothes of hers. :D

Also, the lighting was just right so that you wouldn't notice them unless you were really really trying to look. Pervs. :lol
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Makes you wonder if the D cut will be R or not!
 
AlteredBeast said:
The crowds? The anticipation? Couldn't be the acting, for there was none to speak of. Couldn't be the story, unless you haven't seen several modern and classic films. Couldn't be the film score because it was pretty blah for a film of this magnitude. Special effects? gotcha. Years of build up?

I can think of nothing else. I am just severely let down again by Popcorn-GAF. I just can't hardly trust GAF Reviews anymore. Everything is one extreme or the other. Either someone is reviewing Animal Collective and calling it the best "music" ever or someone is hyping up (seriously, not in a jesting manner) Britney Spears' latest release. Either all the people on GAF with ironic moustaches and thick rimmed glasses (non-corrective lenses) are hyping up the latest indie flick or they are hyping up this dreck. The one thing that impressed me more than anything in this whole movie was actually the way they made Sam Worthington's legs look all debilitated and thin. Thank you, modern computer graphics. :)

and that moaning/dancing sequence and na'vi sex sequence was easily as disturbing and embarassing to be watching as the Matrix Reloaded (Revolutions?) cave rave scene. Yep, that bad.
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:lol :lol Why don't you go see a movies because you want to, and not listen to gaf! I agree, it didn't have a lot of emotion, but that's just because Cameron did have enough money to truly do what he wanted, it's a shame you hated it! o'well! Also the acting was a little melodramatic, but Zoe did beautifully! I was impressed by Jake's legs too, but if that was the most impressive thing to you....... :/
 
http://oscar-watch.ew.com/2009/12/30/what-if-there-were-5-best-picture-nominees/

What if there were 5 Best Picture nominees?
by Dave Karger

When the Academy announced back in June that it’s including 10 Best Picture nominees this year, one of the things I thought about was whether, once the nominees were announced, it would be obvious which five films would have been nominated in a typical year and which five were the “extra” nominees. Well, now that I’ve worked up my Oscar-nomination predictions (which will appear in this week’s issue of EW as well as on this blog tomorrow morning), I’m thinking the answer to that question is a resounding yes. If there were only five Best Picture slots, wouldn’t they go to Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, and Up in the Air? Those five seem way ahead of the competition at the moment, while there are probably nine or so films (District 9, An Education, Invictus, It’s Complicated, The Messenger, Nine, A Serious Man, Star Trek, and Up) that are jockeying for the other five slots but would have had a hard time bumping out any of my “top five.”

What do you think? Am I overestimating or underestimating any of these contenders? Which five films would you predict if the Academy were using last year’s rules? And isn’t it a bit ironic, given that the super-size race was meant to include more audience-friendly films in the mix, that Avatar would easily be nominated even with half the slots?
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.
 
I had my second viewing yesterday but it didn't go well.

I had a massive headache going IN, imagine after 2:40 of 3d. The theatre is a POS. My first viewing was in the second best theater in the city, so I was planning on going to the best one but it was all sold out. I had to settle for this old cheap theater instead and the seats were worse than my old computer chair. The 3d was less pronounced and it seriously affected my enjoyment of the movie. I dont remember perfectly but I dont think the avatars were light purple in the other theater :lol.

Now I have to go at least one more time to get this bad impression out of my memory. I definitely wont be buying the bluray without a 3d capable set though.
 
WrikaWrek said:
Funny. His best stuff is from the last 5 years.
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What are you referring to in particular? BB and TDK are great, but its the James Newton Howard cues that hit the right notes for me moreso than the Zimmer cues (HOWEVER, Zimmer's "Molossus" might be my favorite action cue of the decade, so there you go). And the Pirates sequels have great scores, but Klaus Badelt really built the entire foundation in Pirates 1 and Zimmer just built on that.
 
bud said:
is that a record?
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I couldnt tell you (like you said, comparing WW numbers isnt so easy), but I know its insane. Its going to cross a billion dollars in less than 20 days.

Lebron said:
Michael Giacchino would be a better choice!

*folds arms*
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I LOVE Michael Giacchino, and have basically written love letters to his Speed Racer and Incredibles scores, but if the man has a weakness, its that his action cues often arent as rousing and epic as they should be, which makes him a poor choice for Avatar.

Guardian Bob said:
While we talking soundtrack, anyone else love how they repeated the 'I see you' theme throughout the movie? I noticed it a lot more second time through.
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Yup, and Ive mentioned this a few times. Say what you will about the score's quality/originality, but at least Horner had a motif running throughout the film, something which seems to be lost in recent years.

neoism said:
Also :lol at Solo's 10,000 post!
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I aim to please!
 
GhaleonEB said:
Mojo updated with yesterday's Monday take overseas, which was $37m. Total WW Monday box office was $56.5m.

World-wide total now stands at $726m.

Up to #39 on the all-time chart, ahead of Transformers. Next stop: 2012.
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155mnbt.jpg
 
Solo said:
Yup, and Ive mentioned this a few times. Say what you will about the score's quality/originality, but at least Horner had a motif running throughout the film, something which seems to be lost in recent years.
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Oh god this. I hate how so many movies these days seem to no longer care about something like that in a score. Its pretty much the most important part in maintaining the identity of the movie.

Most scores these days are just background noise. Thankfully Horner gave the movie a proper theme and used the movie to elevate the action and emotion, imo at least.
 
I grew to really like the score on my second viewing.


Though Avatar is really missing that big huge theme that blockbusters typically have.

Even TF2 had one -_-.
 
I contributed to the total again because I wanted to see if RealD was better (it is!) and to try and sooth my head since I'm freaking dreaming about this movie.

Late morning showing on a Wednesday and it was packed. This movie is something special.
 
Scullibundo said:
Yeah I don't think Howard Shore could have hit the action beats well.

That said - and I know it sounds utterly cliche these days to suggest it, especially since so many blockbusters have his scores with similar sounding cues, but John Williams would have been perfect for AVATAR. He still knows how to create an original theme that is distinct and completely memorable (despite his last score for KotS - which is a sequel). Munich still has one of my favourite scores of the decade. It would only be fair that Cameron lent his tech to Spielberg, that Spielberg should loan his Williams to Cameron - only if he promises not to damage him of course.
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In term of making great score out of bad movies, the late Jerry Goldsmith IMO was the best. I'd agree John William is best in this category. Not that I think Cameron make bad movies, but none of his collaboration w/ Horner led to good good scores. This make me suspect that Cameron doesn't give the composer alot of time to work on the material. I am just guessing, but at this point, anyone is better than Horner.

And John William is big enough name. It would make firing Horner easier. So by god, please hire JW for Avatar 2!

Or go nuts and hire Joe Hisaishi.

VVV Damn I just googled.
 
gdt5016 said:
Though Avatar is really missing that big huge theme that blockbusters typically have.
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Thats really my only problem with the score - there is the I See You motif running throughout the movie which is great, but there isnt a rousing, memorable main theme.

tino said:
In term of making great score out of bad movies, Jerry Goldsmith IMO is the best. Now that my man is retired.
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By retired I assume you're phrasing "dead" in a subtle manner?
 
Solo said:
Thats really my only problem with the score - there is the I See You motif running throughout the movie which is great, but there isnt a rousing, memorable main theme.
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Agree so much.
 
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