remember_spinal
Banned
Last edited:
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
- Status
ChiefDada
Gold Member
I think it's premature at best for any journalist to suggest MSFT will sell the Xbox division in the event of the deal falling apart, but I also think Phil Spencer is full of it to categorize the deal as "not a linchpin" for the long term future of Xbox because I hate to say, but at $69 billion, that's exactly what it is. They saw that GP model and associated cannibalization of 1st and 3rd party sales is eating way too much into their financials. The turmoil at Activision prior to the deal was a godsend/perfect storm for Microsoft. Make no mistake, they need (needed?) this deal to go through in order to further support this GP promise they've foolishly committed to. These recent 3rd party sales data are abysmal. Without CoD and without the 3rd party revenue stream they unnecessarily kneecapped, where does the funding for future 1st party titles come from? Microsoft played themselves.
bitbydeath
Member
It’s pretty crazy, but I do wonder if what’s been reported to the CMA was the first time shareholders got a glimpse at the real numbers.
Games on Steam and PC had crossplay with PSN and the 2011 hack happened. What happened to PC and Steam because of it? Nothing.
Stop making silly excuses about why MS rejected crossplay in the 360 gen.
MatrixReloaded101
Member
This thread is at 559 pages now and nothing has really changed since page 1.
Idk care what anyone says, if Xbox can’t make this deal happen it will be one of the many reasons Xbox falls out the gaming business.
No avowed, no fable, no perfect dark, nothing new to share about hellblade 2, Redfall looks like a flop and where the f*ck is Starfield?… they are depending on at $10 a month service while the other guys are charging $70 a pop for one game and selling millions of copies. The writing is on the wall for Xbox but everyone is pretending to be blind not to see it.
Idk care what anyone says, if Xbox can’t make this deal happen it will be one of the many reasons Xbox falls out the gaming business.
No avowed, no fable, no perfect dark, nothing new to share about hellblade 2, Redfall looks like a flop and where the f*ck is Starfield?… they are depending on at $10 a month service while the other guys are charging $70 a pop for one game and selling millions of copies. The writing is on the wall for Xbox but everyone is pretending to be blind not to see it.
Gobjuduck
Banned
no one cared about crossplay then, especially devs. When it mattered sony refused, until they found a way to charge publishers.
since we like to go back to the 360 days. Remember at that time Xbox was the only one helping indies get their games published? While Sony, Valve, and Nintendo shut down indies.
Except that's even more bullshit. FF14 for one cared. Burnout Paradise at one point had a working crossplay implementation which they had to disable due to MS policy.
Xbox did some great things with XBLA, XNA and other initiatives but Sony and Valve were not shutting down indies. Not sure where that bullshit is coming from or how it's relevant other than you trying to evangelise MS.
Poltz
Member
Laughs in FF14 on Xbox.
feynoob
Gold Member
This deal is Microsoft.
As much as we like these xbox glooms stuff, nothing will happen.
You must have been in coma with xbox one then.
If xbox can survive Xbox one, then this gen wont have that much impact.
People are still sleeping on Zenimax and other studios.
bitbydeath
Member
Topher
Gold Member
Sony was doing PS4-PC crossplay with a hell of a lot more games than Xbox or Nintendo. So saying "no one cared" isn't exactly true. Most publishers are never charged for crossplay since most gamers buy stuff on the same platform that they play on. In rare cases, were a disparity exists between gametime on PSN and revenue then yeah, their fee kicks in. Makes sense really if Sony is the one footing the bill for online.
Last edited:
Poltz
Member
Xbox lost the most critical generation, people have a big digital purchase library on PlayStation with back compat compared to the previous gen. We are already seeing PS5 momentum vs Xbox in the US really shift vs previous gen. If there wasn’t supply constraints for the 1st two years it could have been a blood bath.
Wulfer
Member
Sony doesn't believe in back-compat so, why does anything you've stated matter??? Sony secretly wants BC but, don't tell anyone.
Last edited:
Poltz
Member
If you don’t understand that’s fine.
Topher
Gold Member
He is talking about the ability in bringing the PS4 digital library forward to PS5. Not sure how Sony doesn't believe in something they just incorporated in their latest console.
feynoob
Gold Member
That doesnt matter. PS could sell billions, and it wont have that much affect.
Consumers decide where they want to play. If there are people who want to play on xbox, they will buy xbox.
People need to realize that Xbox still has time to pumb out those games. And with gamepass, their momentum is much bigger than before.
And lastly, console sales means nothing. Xbox worst period saw them sell 55m-60m. That was the worst period of xbox, compared to their previous and current gen.
Gobjuduck
Banned
xbox's solution to that has been gamepass, you have a full library of games for a cheap fee.
Poltz
Member
Before the gen started people thought Xbox would outsell the 360 this gen, that looks very difficult now. We’ve seen momentum on gamepass subscriptions slow on consoles with PC being the major opportunity for growth. Console sales do matter because that’s the easiest path to Gamepass subscriptions at the moment. Of course Xbox have time but we have seen the sales in the US for Xbox vs PlayStation up to November 22 and the subsequent reports on revenue and console hardware decline in revenue and volume year on year. PlayStation and Xbox don’t operate in vacuums like the Switch does.
Mibu no ookami
Member
I've seen enough within the first two years here and the slate for this year to confidently say that the Xbox Series is going to have significantly less market share than the Xbox One by the end of the generation. Given the significantly smaller market share that the Xbox One had compared to the 360, I think you'd have to be pretty brazen to think that there won't be discussions within Microsoft as to how to proceed going forward.
There are all sorts of possible paths forward. Releasing a successor console, feeling that now there is better software for the next line generation is a possibility, but it still comes down to opportunity costs.
People act as if
a) Microsoft has never left any markets before
b) No major player has ever left the video game market when both Atari and Sega both left
c) That Microsoft's investment in Zenimax ties it to the video game industry
d) That Microsoft didn't consider ending Xbox already after the launch of the Xbox One
Again, not saying that Microsoft exiting is assured if the deal falls through, but that will certainly put a damper on things at XGS.
That Microsoft wasn't willing to weather the costs with inflation in certainly regions and weak currency (raised prices) and conducted layoffs suggests they're not necessarily willing to eat the operating costs of the Xbox division going forward. I think the biggest idea here is the Microsoft has unlimited cash that they're willing to spend on Xbox, but that isn't the case. They were willing to buy Activision with the idea that the value of activision was going to go up and that ultimately it would be an asset, one that they could sell at a profit if they had to.
People lie to themselves all the time. I remember when they lied to themselves about Sega. The writing is on the wall for Microsoft, though I don't think they're quite as dire as Sega's situation. Not being able to sell out of XSS at 240 dollars is a REALLY bad sign.
Poltz
Member
Game Pass doesn’t address it though. It does not have Sony 1st Party never mind every game Xbox.
Last edited:
feynoob
Gold Member
Forum people have no idea how the real world works.
PS has global audience, Xbox doesnt. As long as that is the case, no way in hell would Xbox come close to PS. X360 sold 1m in japan., Ps3 dominated Europe, which X360 couldnt do anything about it.
Xbox is still an infant system, and 1 gen behind PS. Its only popular in North america and UK. It needs global presence to do big sales.
Gamepass is their building blocks. But they need that global presence to make their software games attractive.
Topher
Gold Member
feynoob
Gold Member
Zenimax has Doom, fallout, elderscrolls, machine games. Unless MS infects them with their disease, they will do what they used to do before.Not really. Game Pass is fantastic but it hasn't really made a difference.feynoob is right. The Zenimax acquisition will pay the most dividends once they begin churning out games starting this year with Redfall and (hopefully) Starfield.
Last edited:
Henry Panic
Banned
I'm betting on this failing. It's been long enough to where regulators know more about the gaming industry.
That makes them making Zenimax stuff exclusive look more scary than a year ago. They needed to get approved before that happened
That makes them making Zenimax stuff exclusive look more scary than a year ago. They needed to get approved before that happened
Mibu no ookami
Member
The problem is that GamePass doesn't tie you to hardware. Your investment is significantly smaller.
Microsoft has never at any point in the last 20 years mounted a comeback in a generation. The one time where they had serious market share, it was when Sony slipped out of the gate.
When you take 2023 into account, that's almost a halfway point in this generation... the momentum is already there.
What do you think the sales ratio will be for this year? I'd love to get you on the record.
feynoob
Gold Member
Yup, they live in the matrix.Wait.....does that mean?
That is the only explanation for
SenjutsuSage
recent behaviour.We are still in the matrix.
Topher
Gold Member
First party has been Xbox's biggest weakness going back to next gen. They certainly have the devs and the IPs, but yeah, don't fuck it up.
feynoob
Gold Member
My record was 80m-90m consoles sold.
90M is still strech for them. But if they keep focusing on gamepass, and 3rd party games like they are doing now, they might that number. So for now, my record would be 80m.
Mibu no ookami
Member
How many by the end of this year?
Poltz
Member
You are not an infant after 20 years. Xbox have now been in the console business longer than Sega was. The one gen difference at times feels like 20 years. Xbox staying safe in UK and US is their fault.
MS strategy is mainly concentrating on online GaaS games and they tie you to their services with that instead. Nobody wants to move to another store or platform and lose all their bought skins and saves. If MS ever gets a dominant foothold kick up a stink about save and dlc/mtx transfers being pro-consumer and see how quickly they fight back against it.
Last edited:
feynoob
Gold Member
Depends on their E3 this year.
So far, they have some good line up, with starfield being a heavy hitter.
But what I am curious is hell blade 2 and avowed. If those 2 gets a release date this year, then they will have a good year, granted they dont have any production issues.
OG xbox>X360> then set back with Xbox one.
They didnt have the same luck as Ps1 to Ps2 numbers.
Xbox's big problem have always been MS. They never had the ambition to make their system huge with their funding. Xbox one failed due to their involvement and their desire with Ads.
This is what the CEO at that said to their customers. Zero FK about their customers.
POKEYCLYDE
Member
The Series X/S has only been out for a little over 2 years. I don't know of many games that require a series console (yet), most games that have come out are also on the Xbox One, giving very little incentive to upgrade. Other than that, we are in a recession, people aren't spending on luxury items as much.
Of course the Series consoles aren't doing as well as past generations in the same time frame. I'd be shocked if those numbers don't pick up in the next few years and are back on track to outpacing the Xbox One.
Some of you look at one fact or data point and draw wild conclusions, like you have blinders on to the broader picture.
Of course the Series consoles aren't doing as well as past generations in the same time frame. I'd be shocked if those numbers don't pick up in the next few years and are back on track to outpacing the Xbox One.
Some of you look at one fact or data point and draw wild conclusions, like you have blinders on to the broader picture.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
what is your point?
feynoob
Gold Member
People need escapism. They will buy video game consoles/pc in order to distract themselves.
Also XSeries surpasses Xbox one in japan. It will be a matter of time, before it surpasses xbox one.
gothmog
Gold Member
What's the broader picture?
demigod
Member
What does being 1 gen behind have anything to do with this? They can still be on top if they actually tried.
demigod
Member
Osirisblack said xbox was going to kill it this gen with games yet we saw nothing. Too bad he never told us which games and now he’s permed.
feynoob
Gold Member
It means everything.
Building connection and loyal fanbase takes time.
If your competitor is step ahead of you, it will be hard to catch them, unless they make a mistake.
Also building those resources is time consuming. It's not something that happens overtime.
demigod
Member
No it doesn’t. PS1 came out and it shat over Nintendo and Sega. 360 came out with a bang and was doing great until they stopped focusing on games.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
It's not because the Game Pass library is extremely easy to abandon (because you can get it back whenever you want).
A PlayStation library, full of digital games you purchased, is extremely hard to abandon comparatively. Users are more likely to stick with that library.
demigod
Member
Recession? How about stop making your own narratives up. PS5 have been selling like hotcakes the past couple of months. Just because xbox has been selling poorly doesn’t mean we are in a recession. Look at how many copies Hogwarts has sold already compared to last year’s Elden Ring.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
It's not the same though.
Microsoft's operating expenditures were significantly less in the Xbox One generation than they are currently in the Xbox Series generation. If XBS performs even slightly less than Xbox One, the negative impact will be exponentially bigger.
feynoob
Gold Member
Making games and expanding your business is 2 different things.
You need market place where you can sell those games. You need localization for native people(Spanish, Arabic and other languages). You also need customer supporters in those regions too.
All these stuff take time. You can't just expand your system by having good games.
X360 was MS most successful console selling around 85m console. But the majority of those copies were from UK and North America.
Mibu no ookami
Member
Notice how you're refusing to give an actual number because you don't want to be beholden to it, because you know you're wrong in advance...
No matter what the result is, you're already preparing excuses.
feynoob
Gold Member
Which is impossible for this system.
MS would need mega mess for that to happen. And if they do that, then Xbox would not be able to recover at all.
feynoob
Gold Member
If MS can't sell a lot of consoles despite those games, then they have a big issues.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked