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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
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  • Poll closed .
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Ar¢tos

Member
I think MS’s next target should be From Software. Just for the forum meltdowns. I think forums would be angrier about that than Activision.
The delusion of people here is mind-blowing.
Kadokawa, the owners of From Software, are worth around 3bn.
You want MS to spend 3bn for one studio (+ a few small studios) and do what with manga magazine business and real estate businesses that comes attached to it?
And how exactly is MS going to bypass the japanese laws that make foreign takeovers very difficult?
And this applies to any attempt of buying any Japanese studio or publisher.
 

NickFire

Member
They want exclusives obviously. But we were discussing Call of Duty. In that case it would remain multiplat so consumers would choose which system, and whether they prefer buying or renting. Similar to Minecraft, like they said. MS still needs some exclusives, but they have shown a history of not dismantling unusually large communities of players, and Call of Duty is certainly that - let alone the monetary reasons for keeping it on PS.

Personally I think no one can afford putting COD on a sub service unless they own the game. It's just too expensive to make sense of it for long, even for MS. With an acquisition it's not just bleeding money if they own the investment. It's pretty much the only way it will be on GP in my opinion.
Hold on. What history are you talking about? Have they launched a single new entry in a game franchise with a large community, that was not made exclusive?
 

Gobjuduck

Banned
It was Microsoft who didn't allow cross-play between Xbox 360 and PS3, when both consoles had a similar market share.

When Xbox One lost market share and player counts to PS4, Microsoft reached out to Sony for cross-play, and then Sony didn't agree to it just like Microsoft didn't last generation.

Microsoft started it, though.
What publishers/studios asked for cross play?

Cross play didn’t become a big deal until destiny and fortnite, and Sony strongly opposed those, until they came up with a fee.
 

James Sawyer Ford

Gold Member
In that case it would remain multiplat so consumers would choose which system, and whether they prefer buying or renting. Similar to Minecraft, like they said.

And for the first 3…erm…10 years it will be multiplat

All bets are off after that, since that’s all MS is willing to guarantee

MS will just wait it out and do the bare minimum to get the deal to pass, but waiting ten years is the blink of an eye compared to their long term plans
 

Punished Miku

Human Rights Subscription Service
And for the first 3…erm…10 years it will be multiplat

All bets are off after that, since that’s all MS is willing to guarantee

MS will just wait it out and do the bare minimum to get the deal to pass, but waiting ten years is the blink of an eye compared to their long term plans
10 years is the longest guarantee in the history of video games. If Gamepass subs got to something insane like 150 million, maybe they'd consider it. But it wont. I think it's reasonable to not commit to something 10 years in the future when no one knows what the market conditions will be. You sign updated contracts for everything. No one gets lifetime guarantees.

The 10 years is to give competitors time to prepare. Sony already is making multiple FPS games. I personally don't think it would ever be exclusive, and I didn't think the 10 year guarantee is unreasonable at all. Obviously not everyone agrees me with me on that.
 

Poltz

Member
The delusion of people here is mind-blowing.
Kadokawa, the owners of From Software, are worth around 3bn.
You want MS to spend 3bn for one studio (+ a few small studios) and do what with manga magazine business and real estate businesses that comes attached to it?
And how exactly is MS going to bypass the japanese laws that make foreign takeovers very difficult?
And this applies to any attempt of buying any Japanese studio or publisher.
To be fair, Kadokawa own near 70%, Tencent 16% and Sony 14% of Fom Software. It’s not happening.
 

Punished Miku

Human Rights Subscription Service
I asked for a new entry in a franchise. Minecraft launched years before they owned it.
There's a new Minecraft game coming out on PS+ even. All I said is Minecraft. There are multiple Minecraft games and they're all multiplatform.

They ported other games like Cuphead and Ori, but that's a different thing really.
 

GHG

Gold Member
Personally I think no one can afford putting COD on a sub service unless they own the game. It's just too expensive to make sense of it for long, even for MS. With an acquisition it's not just bleeding money if they own the investment. It's pretty much the only way it will be on GP in my opinion.

The reason it's not on gamepass or any other sub service (activision could create one of their own, much like how EA and Ubisoft have) is because it doesn't need to be.

They rake in billion's of dollars every single year from selling the game at near full price and that has allowed them to sustain the studios and technology necessary in order to keep on creating new iterations every year. Take away those sales (or a large proportion of them) and they can no longer do that.

Beyond that, for people who don't want to pay full price for the game there's a version that is free to play and allows them to play socially. For people without access to consoles there's a native mobile version.

To put it simply, this acquisition doesn't solve a problem because there isn't one. The general market hasn't signalled in any way that this franchise needs to be on subscription services or that it's business model needs to change. The limited benefit that there would be should the deal go through is for Microsoft and Microsoft alone.
 
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Ezekiel_

Banned
Minecraft. They said they'd treat Call of Duty like Minecraft.
We don't know the circumstances pertaining to Minecraft.

Is it multiplatform because that was part of the acquisition agreement with Mojang?

Is Minecraft also on a 10 year deal, so by 2024, no more Minecraft on other devices?

Regulators can ask for all this info and decide if it's relevant to ABK acquisition.
 

Varteras

Gold Member
1) I know many game journalists - the amount I consider on having an actual domain within this industry and aren't just 'fans' with a media outlet, I can count on one hand.

2) These same journalists, 6-8 months ago, even as late as October, were all claiming both the CMA and the EC were going to rubber stamp this deal and let it pass. That should tell you all you need to know on how well they understand this process.

The only piece I saw that got any of the issues presented by the EC and CMA correctly was that Gameindustry.biz article I saw get posted either Saturday or Sunday.

It truly never ceases to amaze. Game journalists are collectively considered a joke, rightfully so, because of repeatedly displaying their bias, incompetence, and disconnection. But watch them step in like some kind of authority on something and make a claim someone wants to hear, and miraculously their credibility is restored. We see it play out in reviews all the time. "Gaming journalists are morons". Some game gets a 90+ on their preferred platform. "Yeah? Well journalists think the game is amazing so fuck you!"
 

NickFire

Member
There's a new Minecraft game coming out on PS+ even. All I said is Minecraft. There are multiple Minecraft games and they're all multiplatform.

They ported other games like Cuphead and Ori, but that's a different thing really.
Seems like they really have no history of launching highly desired games on competitor platforms then. Whatever these spin offs are, my kids haven't asked to buy any of them. And they play Minecraft all the time.
 
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Mr Moose

Member
You mean when Sony had security issues. Im shocked Microsoft would not want a insecure service to attach to theirs.


Yes, they could see into the future, 9 years after this cross-play game released.

at-least-you-tried-trash.gif
 

Loomy

Thinks Microaggressions are Real
Not nearly as bad.

That’s like saying a dozen 2 magnitude earthquakes in Xbox land is the same as an 8 magnitude earthquake in PlayStation land.
I would argue just as bad in a different area. The 360 had a failure rate of close to 25% for the first 2 or so years.
 

Thirty7ven

Banned
The whole COD on gamepass/Xcloud really is fixing a problem that doesn’t exist. In this case it’s nothing but forcing the market to change, at its peak, just so the company that can bleed the most money gains ground.

Activision would simply agree to financial terms with MS on licensing the game for Gamepass if that made so much business sense. Of course that would probably imply MS paying a truckload of money for all the revenue lost from units unsold.
 
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Banjo64

cumsessed
The delusion of people here is mind-blowing.
Kadokawa, the owners of From Software, are worth around 3bn.
You want MS to spend 3bn for one studio (+ a few small studios) and do what with manga magazine business and real estate businesses that comes attached to it?
And how exactly is MS going to bypass the japanese laws that make foreign takeovers very difficult?
And this applies to any attempt of buying any Japanese studio or publisher.
Not only is it unlikely in the extreme, but as if Miyazaki is going to want to be a US corpo slave.

Stamper Bros. left Rare. Mikami left Tango. Most world class creatives want ‘independence’.

Buy From and then the brain and heart behind the operation leaves immediately? Why would anyone with a brain champion that? It’d be a toss up if he’d leave if Sony acquired them, and that’s only because they’re culturally aligned so would have a better chance of keeping him.
 
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This point here about MS doing the most and still struggling is why I'm not as against the acquisition as I once was. They do have the cheaper console, they do have the cheaper games, they have a heavily subsidized subscription service when compared to ps now/ ps plus. It's pretty clear at this point they're falling behind the competition despite how much money they're losing on this product. idk whether that should justify MS buying something as large as Activision, but it's not as crazy as it seemed to me a few months ago.
Except MS isn't doing the most, not at all. MS had 2 main issues going into the X1, and 3 main issues going into the Xbox Series launch, of which were just carried over from the last launch and just inherited while adding in an entirely new issue.

1) International Brand Management. Since the onset of the Xbox 360, Microsoft has been able to very clearly note that their brand popularity in any region that is neither NA, with USA being the heaviest market there, and the UK specifically. This is where the Xbox brand is most popular and has the most solid successes in terms of sales in a overarching division history. This is their oldest problem, by far. To be quite frank, this is a problem they simply have never really tried to answer, and part of the reason is because it would involve them opening more HQs specifically for Xbox and hiring capable folks from those regions to begin gathering feedback and creating campaigns and launching initiatives that would right the ship in those regions.

I know some folks will use JP and how MS has never really done well there, but there is a truth we're ignoring here - the 360 was far and away the best selling Xbox HW in that market. Everything MS has done in the region since that early portion of the 360 was to largely just ignore it. Are they playing catch up now and trying to harden the SW support from that region? Sure, absolutely, but thats merely 1 region and market, and they have never tried to actually do things or create campaigns to make the Xbox brand itself more popular in the region. Outside of launches and their first 2 years, they basically stop existing in any market that they aren't already dominating in, which completely clears the way for Sony and Nintendo to serve those audiences exclusively. This is why, even with the most optimal sales forecasts we can give Xbox, they will almost always trail PS 2:1 WW.

2) International Platform Support. There are loads of regions where MS' platform just does not serve it well, whether thats on languages, timely/day 1 releases, etc. This is something they themselves have noted several times. Both Sony and Nintendo have steadily transitioned their gaming platforms into international platforms, with every form of support and maximum effort pushed towards ensuring none of these regions get left behind, and its reflected in both the SW sales and the HW sales. Again, something MS has been aware of since the 360 era, almost nothing done to address this.

3) The third pain point is the games themselves. The first thing to acknowledge here is the efforts MS has put towards improving, whether thats buying up publishers, buying up studios, or attempts to strengthen the production studios they already had. I think its quite clear that their efforts here haven't gone smoothly, but from a project management perspective, I think we need to acknowledge how MS simply dropped the ball on the games they did intend to focus on.

From 2009 to current, Sony has increasingly had an interest in cornering the market on big, show piece AAA SP titles. For most of us observing the industry, its quite easy to see how this came to be - several of the attempts Sony has made in the space over time have all been designed to capitalize on where they feel most releases are happening. They identified late into the PS3's lifecycle that 3rd parties were increasingly going to leave AAA SP experiences to the wayside in pursuit of MP suites and their revenue streams. Nintendo, on the flipside, doubled down on both SP experiences, non-traditional MP experiences, and local co-op experiences.

On the flipside, where MS has decided to dump their budget and marketing into primarily has almost always been core MP experiences. Whether that was their early days of wielding CoD, pushing Halo almost entirely as an MP suite, and the same thing with Gears as well, not to mention several other games. While there is nothing inherently wrong with this, it unfortunately puts their slate in direction competition with every other MP title that releases, all of whom release on multiple platforms, and until MS changed course on this, were not releasing on Steam day 1. The studio expansions they've done have expanded the realms in which they will be offering games into, but its also kinda clear how they don't market certain experiences that aren't the tradition MP Suite, compared to how they market/advertise games which have loads of MP features.

I do think they are going in the right direction on point 3, but it had more to do with them buying teams that were operating in genre spaces they completely ignored. As for the first 2 points I outlined, they have seemingly done nothing about it while now crying to regulators that they are in not in stronger market positions. Buying ABK does nothing to those first 2 points.
 

knocksky

Banned
Why do they need to quit the console business since folks keep championing that gamepass is profitable with the best value in gaming? Who’s fault would it be if xbox leaves, sony? Why can’t xbox look into their issues instead of always blaming small sony? Why do they need Acti/Blizz just to compete?

Do you know that Brad wants to blockbuster Sony? Imagine the outcome if that happens. Oh wait we already seen some of the outcomes already.
* raising game prices
* paid online
* horse armor mtx
* didn’t allow crossplay
* always online drm fiasco
* forcing kinect on their consumers
* taking away games from competitor after buying said publisher/ studios

Sure Sony has their issues as well but stop pretending that ms are saints.

WTF? Why quote me then go and write a fanboy word salad? What do you think that I want to see Microsoft crush Sony and reign supreme? Are you stupid? They would bend us all over and do everything that I said Sony would.



Console gaming has always been an affordable way to game, even before Microsoft entered into the console space.

And when in becomes expensive, we see what can happen with the PS3.

Your just trying to find some way to paint Sony as bad.
"You're just trying to make Sony look bad" fucking lol. Again why are you talking about the PS3 and hardware price? These companies ain't ran by the type of morons that would die for them on a forum. The hardware will always be accessible. It's what comes afterwards.


Like I replied to the kid above, I don't Microsoft to oust Sony or vice versa. And neither should any of the clowns clamouring for Microsofts demise either.
 

Warablo

Member
A 5% stake in mobile when currently your stake in mobile is like .1% is a big jump. I am sure the shareholders are pushing for more mobile because of casual whales in that market.
 
It truly never ceases to amaze. Game journalists are collectively considered a joke, rightfully so, because of repeatedly displaying their bias, incompetence, and disconnection. But watch them step in like some kind of authority on something and make a claim someone wants to hear, and miraculously their credibility is restored. We see it play out in reviews all the time. "Gaming journalists are morons". Some game gets a 90+ on their preferred platform. "Yeah? Well journalists think the game is amazing so fuck you!"
 

demigod

Member
WTF? Why quote me then go and write a fanboy word salad? What do you think that I want to see Microsoft crush Sony and reign supreme? Are you stupid? They would bend us all over and do everything that I said Sony would.




"You're just trying to make Sony look bad" fucking lol. Again why are you talking about the PS3 and hardware price? These companies ain't ran by the type of morons that would die for them on a forum. The hardware will always be accessible. It's what comes afterwards.


Like I replied to the kid above, I don't Microsoft to oust Sony or vice versa. And neither should any of the clowns clamouring for Microsofts demise either.
VsXQMpz.gif


Alright bud, who on this forum is calling for ms demise?
 

FUBARx89

Member
It sure did.

I wonder what changed this time round …. 🤔🤔🤔

Probs the fact it's one of the largest, if not largest tech deals ever.

Phil Spencer running his mouth?

How they acted after Beth closed immediately making everything exclusive.

2 large purchases of third party publishers in quite a short timeframe.

Imagine comparing it to buying Bungie doe.
 

reksveks

Member
That’s what the CMA has ordered.
Sorry, I mean that if Sony were to (supposedly, at their own admission) struggle to maintain their current first-party output if their CoD revenue is diminished, then perhaps they should start making different games and diversify genres a little instead of the usual TPS.
 

Topher

Gold Member

If someone wants to get a free trial or I will post the Ida summary (to some people's dislike)

- One lawyer following the case noted that the EC accepted similar remedies last year in Meta's acquisition of Kustomer. This lawyer also expects way more opposition from the CMA, who left the door "barely open".

- A second Brussels-based lawyer believes that the remedies offered by MS will be enough for the EC, noting that the timeline of the EU investigation is almost in step with the CMA: "The CMA is looking at a theory of harm that the EC has already dismissed so there are some differences on the substance, but I would be surprised if the final decisions are fundamentally inconsistent".

- It looks like the EC is only worried about competition being reduced in the markets for the distribution of console/PC games and PC operating systems (nothing about cloud gaming, then).

- The same second lawyer dismisses the concerns regarding COD because recent acquisitions in the audio-visual sector like the 21st Century Fox didn't focused on single money-spinning franchises.

- The second lawyer also says that MS is offering provisions ensuring that Sony gets the game at a discount of the Microsoft price and any new version of the game at the same time as MS.

- Google raised concerns again about the merger creating a very Windows centric environment and developers having to write for Windows. This lawyer believes that the EC has already decided that this concern doesn't make sense.

- A third lawyer believes that the EC identified several competition concerns and fails to see how opening COD to more partners will solve other issues.

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal, that would go forward with a conditional clearance.

The CMA is still the final boss, but it's starting to sound that the EC and China are going to approve the deal. It's also interesting that the EC maybe is not worried about cloud gaming.
 

bitbydeath

Gold Member
Sorry, I mean that if Sony were to (supposedly, at their own admission) struggle to maintain their current first-party output if their CoD revenue is diminished, then perhaps they should start making different games and diversify genres a little instead of the usual TPS.
Ah, gotcha, they are going in on MP games now, which should change up their library a bit.
 

reksveks

Member
The CMA is still the final boss, but it's starting to sound that the EC and China are going to approve the deal. It's also interesting that the EC maybe is not worried about cloud gaming.
EC being more concerned about PC OS vs cloud streaming still feels weird, will be interesting to see if we get any news by Thursday re the CMA meetings
 

FoxMcChief

Gold Member
The delusion of people here is mind-blowing.
Kadokawa, the owners of From Software, are worth around 3bn.
You want MS to spend 3bn for one studio (+ a few small studios) and do what with manga magazine business and real estate businesses that comes attached to it?
And how exactly is MS going to bypass the japanese laws that make foreign takeovers very difficult?
And this applies to any attempt of buying any Japanese studio or publisher.
Guy, I was kidding.
 

ToadMan

Member
Probs the fact it's one of the largest, if not largest tech deals ever.

Phil Spencer running his mouth?

How they acted after Beth closed immediately making everything exclusive.

2 large purchases of third party publishers in quite a short timeframe.

Imagine comparing it to buying Bungie doe.

You’re not wrong…

The point of bungie is that it was small enough to fly under the radar and Sony did the right thing by maintaining Bungie’s independence.

Either of which would have saved MS’s embarrassment now.

Imagine being able to work that out for yourself deer 🤷‍♂️
 

Dane

Member
EC being more concerned about PC OS vs cloud streaming still feels weird, will be interesting to see if we get any news by Thursday re the CMA meetings
I don't get it at all, both google and Sony had previously done cloud gaming but never went foward because they did very small efforts even if they could have afforded to do more.
 
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