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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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ReBurn

Gold Member
Ah....this is why Microsoft is letting it be known that they will fight. Lina Khan isn't exactly an intimidating opponent at the moment based, is she? Certainly doesn't seem like she is equipped to take on the lawyers of one of the world's richest companies. I hope she does sue though. Would be entertaining at least.
The problem the current FTC has is that they are fighting ideological battles that the law doesn't support. Lina Khan thinks she has a congressional mandate to change things. Her main hurdle is a congress doesn't have her back. They are making no effort to change the law to support her ideology. I don't want to get too far into politics, but that's one of the reasons they lose so often.
 
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So were my initial impressions correct in that Sony had concerns besides having access to COD from the start?
This isn't just Sony trying to take a mile from the generous inch Microsoft is offering them?

Because I'm seeing a strong, contrasting message to that from other users. From certain users, this whole deal sounds more like a pro-wrestling drama and I'm expecting a lot of future grudge matches.
To an extent, yes it would appear your impression was correct. MS offered Sony an additional 3 years beyond their current contract, which Jim Ryan promptly rejected.

Sony's initial concern seemed based on the idea that CoD was critical to Playstation, and that if MS were to remove it to make it exclusive to Xbox, it could do irreparable harm to Playstation. If Sony has insisted that CoD also be available to put on PS+, as well as rejecting an improved offer of keeping CoD on Playstation for 10 years. It really puts Sony in a bad light.

You can't blame Sony for not wanting to lose a juggernaut like CoD, or putting up a fight to keep it. And to be honest. There was never a path for Sony to do so that wouldn't make them look bad. I don't see any easy path for a market leader to argue the case Sony has without at least coming off as being entitled, so it's hard for me to hold that against Ryan all things considered.

But while I understand why Sony did it, doesn't mean their argument was valid. At some point the facts and data simply weren't going to support their argument. It reminds me of how the law works in countries like Germany. As long as you don't break any additional laws while doing so. It's perfectly legal for an inmate to escape from prison. It's human nature, and they have no problem with you trying to escape prison. It doesn't mean that they think you should be free or support you though. They just don't blame you for trying.
 

Menzies

Banned

Iced Arcade

Member
Ah....this is why Microsoft is letting it be known that they will fight. Lina Khan isn't exactly an intimidating opponent at the moment based, is she? Certainly doesn't seem like she is equipped to take on the lawyers of one of the world's richest companies. I hope she does sue though. Would be entertaining at least.
Agreed. Lol

Animated GIF
 
The problem the current FTC has is that they are fighting ideological battles that the law doesn't support. Lina Khan thinks she has a congressional mandate to change things. Her main hurdle is a congress doesn't have her back. They are making no effort to change the law to support her ideology. I don't want to get too far into politics, but that's one of the reasons they lose so often.

And would lose again should they foolishly bring a case. And would also severely harm the current administration with a massive labor union that is fully backing the Activision deal and that has an agreement with Microsoft, a deal that only goes into effect 2 months after deal close. FTC gets in the way of that with so many Democrats up for re-election in important states in 2024 and there will be a price to pay politically. Which is why I personally don't see it happening outside of an agreement.
 

gothmog

Gold Member
It's less about the money and more about the significance of the deal if they close it. Microsoft makes $3 billion in such a short period of time that it's quite easy to come up with. Any court fight will be due to the sheer importance of the deal to them, not the money they could lose.
If Phil just gave up he'd be out on his ass tomorrow.
 

Lex Tenebris

Neo Member
As far as I know, concessions should be proposed by the involved parties, not a third party like Sony or the regulators. If Sony refuse all the proposal and the regulators think that they are fair, then the deal could go through without concessions, if they don't find other arguments to block it.

Like in the case of Arm and Nvidia which would affect many aspect of people life and probably could impact national interests, as their IP are used in telecommunications, IT, IoT and military devices. In this case we are talking about a luxury which doesn't affect anything bar Sony revenue.
 
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Three

Member
As far as I know, concessions should be proposed by the involved parties, not a third party like Sony or the regulators. If Sony refuse all the proposal and the regulators think that they are fair, then the deal could go through without concessions, if they don't find other arguments to block it.
That's not true, the concessions would be based on the regulators concerns. It would not matter if Sony are happy or not. The regulators are not really a mediator. The regulators would either decide that the concessions are required or they are not. Any concessions they decide on would not be at risk if Sony are not on board.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
Some interesting stats about the CMA’s past results lifted from the other site;

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/phase-1-merger-enquiry-outcomes

26/39 cases that have gone to phase 2 have been blocked, cancelled or faced divestitures since 2019.

66% chance it's blocked or MS is forced to sell off chunks of ABK. 33% chance it goes through with no remedies or behavioral remedies. I'm personally not a huge fan of those odds.

Also in the last 3 years they've cleared 0/26 cases with behavioral remedies, so the MS guarantee of publishing CoD on PS is meaningless.*

*(I think he meant to say they’ve cleared 0/13 cases with behavioural remedies).
 
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That's not true, the concessions would be based on the regulators concerns. It would not matter if Sony are happy or not. The regulators are not really a mediator. The regulators would either decide that the concessions are required or they are not. Any concessions they decide on would not be at risk if Sony are not on board.
Depends on the wording and details.
For example: Is the concession to "offer" Sony a 10 year CoD license or "grant" the lince. Or does there "have to be a 10 year license in place"

All there are quite different.
But the latter is quite unnormal and would allow a competitor to block the deal at will. If that's what youre talking about
 

Three

Member
Depends on the wording and details.
For example: Is the concession to "offer" Sony a 10 year CoD license or "grant" the lince. Or does there "have to be a 10 year license in place"

All there are quite different.
But the latter is quite unnormal and would allow a competitor to block the deal at will. If that's what youre talking about
I said this on Wednesday but I believe if the regulators decide that the deal lowers competition any behavioural remedy they are willing to accept would not be specific to a particular company, it would be comprehensive:
To be frank this shouldn't even be about dialogue with another party and it isn't. Any remedies proposed should be made to the CMA and the CMA action would be comprehensive and take competition in the market into account. Have they offered remedies that the CMA are happy with?

If tomorrow some new console entrant comes would MS need to offer them a 10yr contract too?

If you look at their remedies guideline they are more likely to push structural remedies, such as divestitures than behavioural ones like the one MS seem to be suggesting. If as MS say they offer releases with parity to competitors for 10yrs that is something that would require constant monitoring for compliance. That's why I'm doubtful MS' 10yr agreement would be accepted. We'll see.
 
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Lex Tenebris

Neo Member
That's not true, the concessions would be based on the regulators concerns. It would not matter if Sony are happy or not. The regulators are not really a mediator. The regulators would either decide that the concessions are required or they are not. Any concessions they decide on would not be at risk if Sony are not on board.
Again, AFAIK, concessions are used to ease the merge at regulators eyes. Sometimes are promises, like nvidia tried with the arm merge, but no one believed them, sometimes are signed contract to third party involved, like this case.
As an example there is the recent psa-fca merge in stellantis. PSA had already a joint venture with Toyota for commercial vehicles, which is deeper than the relationship Sony has with Activision. Stellantis offered to maintain the contracts that already existed, and... that's all. Merger approved and the second biggest car manufacturer of Europe was born. Which than became the first in sales in 2021.


What Microsoft is offering is way beyond that as there is no joint venture and there is only a paid exclusive marketing contract right now.

It must be considered tha automotive is a core industry for EU, and the commercial vehicles busines may had a big impact in a lot of small and big businesses. Videogame are far from that
That said maybe they find out other things to block the deal, but honestly I don't think that what Sony ask for will be determinant. I think the 10 year deal is convenient, and, even if regulators are taking the parts of Sony, more or less clearly, if Sony become greed it may go against themselves.
 

ReBurn

Gold Member
It's less about the money and more about the significance of the deal if they close it. Microsoft makes $3 billion in such a short period of time that it's quite easy to come up with. Any court fight will be due to the sheer importance of the deal to them, not the money they could lose.
The $3 billion is Microsoft's incentive to fight for the deal and likely why ABK insisted on it. The cost of legal battles will be in the tens of million of dollars but it will cost less than breaking up and walking away.
 
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Ah....this is why Microsoft is letting it be known that they will fight. Lina Khan isn't exactly an intimidating opponent at the moment based, is she? Certainly doesn't seem like she is equipped to take on the lawyers of one of the world's richest companies. I hope she does sue though. Would be entertaining at least.
I find it more fascinating that FTC lost the case against Illumina/Grail (that was blocked in EU in the end). And Illumina/Grail was the case of a company with 70-80% market share worldwide buying a piece of technology used by other (remaining I guess) competitors :ROFLMAO:
 
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feynoob

Member
Ah....this is why Microsoft is letting it be known that they will fight. Lina Khan isn't exactly an intimidating opponent at the moment based, is she? Certainly doesn't seem like she is equipped to take on the lawyers of one of the world's richest companies. I hope she does sue though. Would be entertaining at least.
They can sue. But continuing the case is too much for them.
For example, we have heard reports that these agencies may be outstaffed ten to one in high-profile litigation.

So we appreciate that both agencies have requested substantial funding increases in fiscal year 2023 to support their enforcement, rulemaking, and research priorities.

The FTC is requesting a significant funding increase of $113.5 million, or 30%, over fiscal year 2022 enacted, to hire more staff across nearly every part of the agency and support its IT and expert witness needs.
The SEC has asked for $2.21 billion in fiscal year 2023, a 10.3% increase over fiscal year 2022 enacted. Much of this is for additional staff, particularly in the Enforcement and Examinations divisions.

With how many acquisition and mergers on the horizon, it seems money is on tight schedule, and not enough funding for big cases.

MS on other hand has limitless funding and top lawyers like you said. Not a good match between the 2.
 

feynoob

Member

The US Federal Trade Commission has no interest in any remedy discussions to address concerns with the t-Activision deal, MLex has learned.

Without a settlement in sight, the companies face an all-or-nothing decision.
Rest is log in.
 

reksveks

Member
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gothmog

Gold Member
Some interesting stats about the CMA’s past results lifted from the other site;



*(I think he meant to say they’ve cleared 0/13 cases with behavioural remedies).
It means the ones that had remedies or were blocked did not end up having behavioral remedies. As I have been saying most of these regulators know that enforcement is an issue and behavioral changes usually don't work. Divestiture does.

Spinning out some part of Activision would allow everyone to negotiate for COD marketing deals and subscription access similar to how EA Play is available on PS and Xbox.
 

jm89

Member
It means the ones that had remedies or were blocked did not end up having behavioral remedies. As I have been saying most of these regulators know that enforcement is an issue and behavioral changes usually don't work. Divestiture does.

Spinning out some part of Activision would allow everyone to negotiate for COD marketing deals and subscription access similar to how EA Play is available on PS and Xbox.
MS have been trying push the whole mobile being the biggest reason of this acquisition, would be interesting if the regulators ask for divestiture, put your money where you mouth is MS.
 

feynoob

Member
- MS offered keeping COD during the original agreement + a few more years. Then the offer changed to as long as PlayStation exists.

- The FTC doesn’t care about only behavioural remedies.

- The same team reviewing this merger is the one that challenged the Meta - Within deal.

- Sony’s issues with the offer from MS seems to be that: 1) MS doesn’t clearly states how COD will be available post agreement 2) Sony wants COD on the same day, with the same features and in PS+, but MS is not committing to that.

It’s was obvious that having COD on Gamepass AND PS+ was going to be a contentious point between Sony and MS.

And it sounds very, very likely that the FTC will sue.
 
FTC going up against
- Aerojet/Lockheed
- Meta
- Ilumina/Grail
- Altria Group/JUUL
Aerojet/Lockheed - Wasn't it blocked already as it would create a monopoly on missile production?
Meta/Within - still in progress, but FTC dropped a couple of claims from the lawsuit already
Illumina/Grail - FTC lost, but it was blocked in EU

feynoob said:
Sony wants COD on the same day, with the same features and in PS+, but MS is not committing to that.
If Playstation wanted COD in PS+ they could have paid ABK or acquired ABK themselves lol

feynoob said:
MS doesn’t clearly states how COD will be available post agreement
Will be an interesting negotiation as COD has not only multiple games but its release cycle is gonna change anyway.
 
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feynoob

Member
If Playstation wanted COD in PS+ they could have paid ABK or acquire ABK themselves lol
CMA argument sub-service.
MS brought that on themselves.

Will be an interesting negotiation as COD has not only multiple games but it release cycle is gonna change anyway.
That is why Sony isnt signing the 10 year deal so far. They want same thing as Xbox.
Its smart move, since it puts pressure on MS.
 

reksveks

Member
Aerojet/Lockheed - Wasn't it blocked already as it would create a monopoly on missile production?
Meta/Within - still in progress, but FTC dropped a couple of claims from the lawsuit already
Illumina/Grail - FTC lost, but it was blocked in EU
was just looking at the https://www.ftc.gov/legal-library/browse/cases-proceedings pending cases.

Illumina is still going ahead but haven't looked too much into it.

but yeah, ignore the aerojet one.
 
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Pelta88

Member
It's less about the money and more about the significance of the deal if they close it. Microsoft makes $3 billion in such a short period of time that it's quite easy to come up with. Any court fight will be due to the sheer importance of the deal to them, not the money they could lose.

You say this with so such confidence that you must be completely unaware of what will happen to the stock price of both companies. The bleak ramifications if the deal falls through would be uncanny.

It will have a direct effect on the entire markets and be carnage for ATVI and MSFT share price. Absolute carnage. Every hedge fund and retail investor would short sell those companies into oblivion.
 
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MS have been trying push the whole mobile being the biggest reason of this acquisition, would be interesting if the regulators ask for divestiture, put your money where you mouth is MS.
Sure, but I don't think it's that simple. If they ask for divestiture, a new price would have to be agreed upon, as well as who would be able to acquire whatever portion was divested.

If CoD is the main component here, then how would only that part exist by itself? If MS were to only acquire the mobile portion, what is that alone worth, and would Activision be ok losing that part as it would dramatically decrease the value of the company.
 

feynoob

Member
You say this with so such confidence that you must be completely unaware of what will happen to the stock price of both companies. The bleak ramifications if the deal falls through would be uncanny.

It will have a direct effect on the entire markets and be carnage for ATVI and MSFT share price. Absolute carnage. Every hedge fund and retail investor would short sell those companies into oblivion.
Only on activision, not MS.

MS would have 65b on their bank for another purchase, and they would continue to have good years, due to their output.

On other hand, ABK would suffer badly, as MS isnt buying them would mean them going back to their stock worth.\

With current problems in the company, that is not a good look.
 

clarky

Gold Member
You say this with so such confidence that you must be completely unaware of what will happen to the stock price of both companies. The bleak ramifications if the deal falls through would be uncanny.

It will have a direct effect on the entire markets and be carnage for ATVI and MSFT share price. Absolute carnage. Every hedge fund and retail investor would short sell those companies into oblivion.
Good luck shorting a 2 trillion dollar company into oblivion.
 
You say this with so such confidence that you must be completely unaware of what will happen to the stock price of both companies. The bleak ramifications if the deal falls through would be uncanny.

It will have a direct effect on the entire markets and be carnage for ATVI and MSFT share price. Absolute carnage. Every hedge fund and retail investor would short sell those companies into oblivion.
ATVI prices would definitely take a hit for sure. MSFT wouldn't though outside of a temporary blip. Your wet dream of MSFT being short sold into oblivion would remain nothing more than a wet spot on your bed sheets though.
 
CMA argument sub-service.
MS brought that on themselves.
CMA failed to build the argument regarding the multi-game subscription service. Even in their own document and it was not a solid point at all but a bunch of theoreticals. UK was mainly concerned about cloud, but even that is not a strong argument either because there is no legal argument that can be used against cloud streaming as it is a nascent market and nobody can predict what's gonna happen with it within the next 5 years for example.

Just like EU came out with a concern that Microsoft will bundle COD with Windows (but I don't see people here taking it seriously).

That is why Sony isnt signing the 10 year deal so far. They want same thing as Xbox.
Its smart move, since it puts pressure on MS.
Sony is not going to sign anything because they want to block the deal. But regulators won't ask Sony anyway whether Sony is ok with the concessions or not if regulators find the concession ok.

Illumina is still going ahead but haven't looked too much into it.
The European Commission has prohibited, under the EU Merger Regulation, the implemented acquisition of GRAIL by Illumina
 
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feynoob

Member
CMA failed to build the argument regarding the multi-game subscription service. Even in their own document and it was not a solid point at all but a bunch of theoreticals. Just like EU came out with a concern that Microsoft will bundle COD with Windows (but I don't see people here taking it seriously).
PS+ day1 is in the play right now. That means, MS would have to support it.
Sony is not going to sign anything because they want to block the deal. But regulators won't ask Sony anyway whether Sony is ok with the concessions or not if regulators find the concession ok.
If Sony are going to sign this deal, then they want that.
 
You say this with so such confidence that you must be completely unaware of what will happen to the stock price of both companies. The bleak ramifications if the deal falls through would be uncanny.

It will have a direct effect on the entire markets and be carnage for ATVI and MSFT share price. Absolute carnage. Every hedge fund and retail investor would short sell those companies into oblivion.

Microsoft's stock is safe with or without the deal. Anyone hoping to short-sell Microsoft of all companies with any major success is destined to lose a whole lot of money, my friend. Activision's stock is equally safe. Do you have any idea the type of strong momentum Activision Blizzard is set up for? There's a good reason experts who follow this stuff say that the Activision stock is a strong and very safe bet whether the deal fails or not. They can immediately use the $3 billion from Microsoft to do stock buybacks if it even came to that, and I'm sure they wouldn't necessarily have to because everybody saw how Activision has performed thus far with their latest product releases. Modern Warfare II has over $1 billion sell through in just 10 days. Both will be fine.
 

feynoob

Member
COD is never coming to PS+ day one. Where has this come from?
Sony’s issues with the offer from MS seems to be that: 1) MS doesn’t clearly states how COD will be available post agreement 2) Sony wants COD on the same day, with the same features and in PS+, but MS is not committing to that.
From this. Day1 is in the air, but that could be potential be what Sony would ask (Price would be issue though)
 
PS+ day1 is in the play right now. That means, MS would have to support it.
No, as it is easy case for Microsoft to argue against. As Sony does not put their own games in PS+ Day 1 thus Sony does not believe that it is necessary to compete with Game Pass, where Microsoft does put the games Day 1. On what basis can Sony request Day 1 releases then? Regulators do not consider subscription services as something serious either (europe for example) - just as an alternative distribution channel.

It will be all about COD in the end. It is a shame that Microsoft even has to concede anything due to unreasonable FTC.

If Sony are going to sign this deal, then they want that.
Microsoft offered Sony a deal so that Sony would retract its opposition to the deal. As it did not work out, Microsoft went to the regulator and regulator will decide what concession is ok, regardless of what Sony wants. The deal will be with a regulator, not with Sony. It is basically like at school where you ask a fellow student to sign a document sent by the teacher. Nobody is asking the student if he is ok with that or not.
 
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Microsoft's stock is safe with or without the deal. Anyone hoping to short-sell Microsoft of all companies with any major success is destined to lose a whole lot of money, my friend. Activision's stock is equally safe. Do you have any idea the type of strong momentum Activision Blizzard is set up for? There's a good reason experts who follow this stuff say that the Activision stock is a strong and very safe bet whether the deal fails or not. They can immediately use the $3 billion from Microsoft to do stock buybacks if it even came to that, and I'm sure they wouldn't necessarily have to because everybody saw how Activision has performed thus far with their latest product releases. Modern Warfare II has over $1 billion sell through in just 10 days. Both will be fine.

Bruh Acti's stock is fucked if this deal falls through. Don't cling to such hope. You will lose your money.
 
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No, as it is easy case for Microsoft to argue against. As Sony does not put their own games in PS+ Day 1 thus Sony does not believe that it is necessary to compete with Game Pass, where Microsoft does put the games Day 1.


Microsoft offered Sony a deal so that Sony would retract its opposition to the deal. As it did not work out, Microsoft went to the regulator and regulator will decide what concession is ok, regardless of what Sony wants. The deal will be with a regulator, not with Sony. It is basically like at school where you ask a fellow student to sign a document sent by the teacher. Nobody is asking the student if he is ok with that or not.
This is my impression of it as well.
 

feynoob

Member
No, as it is easy case for Microsoft to argue against. As Sony does not put their own games in PS+ Day 1 thus Sony does not believe that it is necessary to compete with Game Pass, where Microsoft does put the games Day 1. On what basis can Sony request Day 1 releases then? Regulators do not consider subscription services as something serious either (europe for example) - just as an alternative distribution channel.
Sony can get that on their contract, whether day1 or not is viable for them is for the future.
CMA would also agree to that, as without that option, gamepass would have huge advantage pn that market.
Microsoft offered Sony a deal so that Sony would retract its opposition to the deal. As it did not work out, Microsoft went to the regulator and regulator will decide what concession is ok, regardless of what Sony wants. The deal will be with a regulator, not with Sony. It is basically like at school where you ask a fellow student to sign a document sent by the teacher. Nobody is asking the student if he is ok with that or not.
MS changed the yearly offer to Sony. Sony wants the same version as Xbox. I dont see the problem here. Regulators wants a fair market.
Not happening
Its better than nothing.
Sony knows that COD would be dropped on gamepass day1. They wont be able to compete with that offer. So they have to get something from this deal.
Even if they cant get day1, it better to get later like skyrim, and deathloop on ps+.
 
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CMA would also agree to that, as without that option, gamepass would have huge advantage pn that market.
CMA Game Pass argument was very weak and they could not even come up with a strong proof that multi-game subscription service represents an independent market but only a bunch of theoreticals (merged with cloud gaming) where "in the future it might become too strong" or whatever. Game Pass does not even amount to the huge % of gaming distribution to be something that suddenly will become hugely superior to other services. And no one can predict a future.

As Game Pass does not have "Game Pass only" games it cannot be a separate market. And that's what Microsoft for example argued in their response and why EU did not consider Game Pass (or multi-game subscription service) as an independent market either.

MS changed the yearly offer to Sony. Sony wants the same version as Xbox. I dont see the problem here. Regulators wants a fair market.
They offered a feature parity from the very beginning and that's something that Xbox hasn't had for years. Considering that PS occuppies 70%+ market share in some european markets I don't think regulators care that much about a fair market at all.

If not for crazy FTC, I see Microsoft waiting till the end of CMA and EU investigations as with the provided data it becomes apparent that a lot of arguments against the deal do not hold water.
 
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