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[Chukhopops]

Granted we can still buy games even having game pass, and if that continues into the future then great BUT, if the future of gaming is exactly like Netflix and we can only "borrow" these games, how are people happy about that POSSIBLE future?

You know you can buy most Netflix original series on physical media?

List of Netflix Originals Available on DVD & Blu-ray

If you’re a long-time reader of this site, you know we often like to challenge ourselves with going down rabbit holes and that’s exactly what we’ve done here. Again. Here’s a list of every Netflix...

www.whats-on-netflix.com

 

[phil_t98]

I'd be curious to know how many of those are $1 subs. I wouldn't be surprised if it was way more than half.

Nobody is paying $1 as you have to pay for gold to, when you factor in gold it makes it the same price as PS Now so it’s a bargain getting new games day one on there

 

[Magnific0giganticus]

You know you can buy most Netflix original series on physical media?

List of Netflix Originals Available on DVD & Blu-ray

If you’re a long-time reader of this site, you know we often like to challenge ourselves with going down rabbit holes and that’s exactly what we’ve done here. Again. Here’s a list of every Netflix...

www.whats-on-netflix.com

Yeah so? TV/movies aren't the same as games. The reason Netflix and similar services are successful is because before they existed not many people bought TV series or even that many movies physical or digital. TV and film have a very short lifespan, and most people watch a lot stuff in a regular basis as an one and done thing.

 

[Aroll]

So if I understand you correctly, you believe that it'll need to generate $1 Billion+ revenue per month to be profitable?

Yes.

That's only 12 billion in revenue a year. That sounds like a lot, but consider they just spent 7.5 billion and basically over 10 billion in total on studio acquisitions. Most of these studios are making AAA games. Those games cost likely 100+ million a pop in game development. There are likely 20+ games in active development now at any given point. They are also paying other companies for putting their games on game pass, and then paying them bonuses on top of that for downloads and time played.

You have to remember that while revenue sounds like a lot, the spend is also a lot to keep making content and to keep adding 3rd party content too. You think EA and Ubisoft combined their services into gamepass out of the kindness of their hearts? No, Microsoft is paying them big money. Netflix needed 200+ million subs at an average of $14 a sub to be profitable. Because of the cost of making their own content plus license fees and crap for other people's content. Microsoft has the same endeavor going on, and AAA games cost the same as movies to make. Of course, Netflix makes more content than anyone in the whole industry, and Microsoft isn't at that level. Hence why I don't think they need 200 million.

 

[MacReady13]

You know you can buy most Netflix original series on physical media?

Heard of the Series S or the cheaper PS5? If someone had one of those consoles, how would one play physical games on that machine? Or watch their physical media on one of those machines?
And you know that many places are phasing out physical media. Trying to find CD's now is getting harder and harder. Blu Ray and 4K will follow the same path...

 

[Menzies]

Granted we can still buy games even having game pass, and if that continues into the future then great BUT, if the future of gaming is exactly like Netflix and we can only "borrow" these games, how are people happy about that POSSIBLE future?

You're envisioning a future where a company decides to...not accept your money? Or changes their business model to accept less revenue?

Struggling to understand where this idea is born from.

To expand on this idea though, I think gaming habits will change over time. If suddenly you have access to hundreds of games, you're probably less likely to revisit the same games over and over.

 

[A.Romero]

Granted we can still buy games even having game pass, and if that continues into the future then great BUT, if the future of gaming is exactly like Netflix and we can only "borrow" these games, how are people happy about that POSSIBLE future?

IMO that's a reality already. I have a considerable collection on Steam and I'm aware that I could be denied access or hacked. We are all only borrowing licensing.

Nowadays that games depend on 1 day patches, we won't be able to play physical copies either if the manufacturer doesn't want us to.

There are not enough DRM free games and I doubt they significantly increase in the future so...


On topic: I became a suscriber recently (PC) and I'm enjoying it. Microsoft is taking the right steps to make this a reality.

 

[DaGwaphics]

Yes.

That's only 12 billion in revenue a year. That sounds like a lot, but consider they just spent 7.5 billion and basically over 10 billion in total on studio acquisitions. Most of these studios are making AAA games. Those games cost likely 100+ million a pop in game development. There are likely 20+ games in active development now at any given point. They are also paying other companies for putting their games on game pass, and then paying them bonuses on top of that for downloads and time played.

You have to remember that while revenue sounds like a lot, the spend is also a lot to keep making content and to keep adding 3rd party content too. You think EA and Ubisoft combined their services into gamepass out of the kindness of their hearts? No, Microsoft is paying them big money. Netflix needed 200+ million subs at an average of $14 a sub to be profitable. Because of the cost of making their own content plus license fees and crap for other people's content. Microsoft has the same endeavor going on, and AAA games cost the same as movies to make. Of course, Netflix makes more content than anyone in the whole industry, and Microsoft isn't at that level. Hence why I don't think they need 200 million.

It should be a lot easier to realize a profit with a game subscription in comparison to a video streaming service. MS just doesn't need as much content overall.

Even if MS released 12 AAA titles as year at 150m each and 12 AA at say 50m, you're only looking at 2.4b a year in development costs (and that would be unrivaled production). That leaves a lot of cash for day one additions, but how many of those will they really do in a year, 2 a month or 3. The older content will be less expensive, etc. Unless they literally buyout the majority of the gaming market $1b a month as the redline for profit seems quite high.

 

[LastBattle]

23 Mill sounds just about right.. i feel like

Xbox has a base of xbox fans that is around 20- 40 million. every gen. Id be really surprised when it goes above 50 mill.

i dont feel like game pass will be reached beyond the xbox Loyals or the BC lovers. Give or take some new folks.

You don’t think the best deal in gaming ever will attract (many) new adopters? People will go where the value is. Im predicting a runaway success for Xbox this gen, maybe not PS5 numbers, but Certainly much better than last gen.

 

[Chukhopops]

Heard of the Series S or the cheaper PS5? If someone had one of those consoles, how would one play physical games on that machine? Or watch their physical media on one of those machines?
And you know that many places are phasing out physical media. Trying to find CD's now is getting harder and harder. Blu Ray and 4K will follow the same path...

The move towards digital media has nothing to do with the subscription model, it’s happening everywhere. You were saying that you can « only borrow » Netflix content and I showed you that you can buy their content directly if you want. Netflix or Microsoft or any other will never leave money on the table by not selling their content outside the subscription. At best I could see some temporary Gamepass exclusivity to push subs but that’s it.

Yeah so? TV/movies aren't the same as games. The reason Netflix and similar services are successful is because before they existed not many people bought TV series or even that many movies physical or digital. TV and film have a very short lifespan, and most people watch a lot stuff in a regular basis as an one and done thing.

What the hell am I reading? You’re saying « not many people » bought DVDs before Netflix existed? Are you serious? I was buying DVDs in 2003 to read on my PS2 twelve years before Netflix launched.

 

[Magnific0giganticus]

The move towards digital media has nothing to do with the subscription model, it’s happening everywhere. You were saying that you can « only borrow » Netflix content and I showed you that you can buy their content directly if you want. Netflix or Microsoft or any other will never leave money on the table by not selling their content outside the subscription. At best I could see some temporary Gamepass exclusivity to push subs but that’s it.


What the hell am I reading? You’re saying « not many people » bought DVDs before Netflix existed? Are you serious? I was buying DVDs in 2003 to read on my PS2 twelve years before Netflix launched.

Yeah, not many people relative to the vast amount of people in the world capable of buying them....How many DVDs would the average (DVD player owner) buy in a year? 20? 30? Doubtful, and even still that's nothing compared to what people have access to today. People today don't need special hardware or even a TV to watch tons of shows, movies etc. Online services are everywhere. You don't have to be a genius with all the data at hand to figure out a whole lot of people consumes much, much more media today than 15 or more years ago when they were only capable of watching that media on dedicated hardware and buying or renting each piece individually or TV channels/Cable programming/pay per view (that still exist).

 

[Oddvintagechap]

This is confusing. Why is Epic not have a dollar gamepass. Better than fucking free.

 

[Jaybe]

Is 23 million a good number? They used to have 46 million plus Gold subscribers, probably more. Given the $1 Gold to game pass conversion promotion and $1 trials and other giveaways, I’m not that impressed.

 

[Menzies]

Is 23 million a good number? They used to have 46 million plus Gold subscribers, probably more. Given the $1 Gold to game pass conversion promotion and $1 trials and other giveaways, I’m not that impressed.

So it's closest competitive service in PSNow came out earlier, has more games and is cheaper with 10% of the subscribers.

It just grew by 5 million users in 3 months.

Context.

 

[pasterpl]

Yes.

That's only 12 billion in revenue a year. That sounds like a lot, but consider they just spent 7.5 billion and basically over 10 billion in total on studio acquisitions. Most of these studios are making AAA games. Those games cost likely 100+ million a pop in game development. There are likely 20+ games in active development now at any given point. They are also paying other companies for putting their games on game pass, and then paying them bonuses on top of that for downloads and time played.

You have to remember that while revenue sounds like a lot, the spend is also a lot to keep making content and to keep adding 3rd party content too. You think EA and Ubisoft combined their services into gamepass out of the kindness of their hearts? No, Microsoft is paying them big money. Netflix needed 200+ million subs at an average of $14 a sub to be profitable. Because of the cost of making their own content plus license fees and crap for other people's content. Microsoft has the same endeavor going on, and AAA games cost the same as movies to make. Of course, Netflix makes more content than anyone in the whole industry, and Microsoft isn't at that level. Hence why I don't think they need 200 million.

you are forgetting that Bethesda games will be released on pc as well (steam) where ms games are regularly the top sellers achieving very good sales numbers, also forgetting about mtx in some of these games as well as dlc’s, also not every Xbox owner is gamepass subscriber so these games will still sell copies on Xbox. With all of this taken into consideration, getting back that 7.5bn invested in Bethesda will be easier than you think. Same applies to all other Microsoft owned game studios projects. As far as we know there are no gamepass exclusive games, all of the gp games can be purchased for a price elsewhere. This last bit is something that a lot of people forget about.

 

[Old Empire.]

People asked this question at the million mark, 12 million mark, 18 million mark, and now 23 million mark. If those numbers keep growing it means that a decent amount of those $1 subscriptions are converting.......

Actually i paid the 1 Euro for a three-month deal. Now is 12.99 Euros for game pass and gold, cheap still. There are workarounds by changing accounts to get another deal, but you may get flagged since identifiers track all consoles,

 

[Old Empire.]

Is 23 million a good number? They used to have 46 million plus Gold subscribers, probably more. Given the $1 Gold to game pass conversion promotion and $1 trials and other giveaways, I’m not that impressed.

Longterm deals are gone that was only the start of gamepass. You have a limited deal for three months then you have to purchase full price.

 

[M1chl]

Longterm deals are gone that was only the start of gamepass. You have a limited deal for three months then you have to purchase full price.

I believe you can still do it if you never had a GamePass.

 

[Old Empire.]

I believe you can still do it if you never had a GamePass.

Can't buying it on console. Was just a deal for three months, for new subscribers.

 

[M1chl]

Can't buying it on console. Was just a deal for three months, for new subscribers.

Oh very well then, I am not up to date with this stuff, I am paying 15 bucks (or CZK equivalent) since 01/2021.So I am don't care for stuff like this.

 

[MonarchJT]

Is 23 million a good number? They used to have 46 million plus Gold subscribers, probably more. Given the $1 Gold to game pass conversion promotion and $1 trials and other giveaways, I’m not that impressed.

gamepass cost is higher and is still on top of gold
to get an idea psnow is older than gp and is a 2.2m. So yeah is not just good it is incredibly good

 

[Old Empire.]

Oh very well then, I am not up to date with this stuff, I am paying 15 bucks (or CZK equivalent) since 01/2021.So I am don't care for stuff like this.

I purchased the Series X end of Dec. That's the deal i got on the console. The 1 Euro deal ended sometime in March. Bought some DLC through gamepass so unlikely to start a new account. Too much bother anyhow and 12.99 Euros a month a good deal for gold and gamepass, as a package.

 

[Mmnow]

Is 23 million a good number? They used to have 46 million plus Gold subscribers, probably more. Given the $1 Gold to game pass conversion promotion and $1 trials and other giveaways, I’m not that impressed.

You're getting knocked for what seems like trolling. So here's a genuine answer.

Game Pass is on track to far outpace Netflix at this point in its life cycle. Someone did the math, and if MS can get 500,000 odd new subscribers by June or July (they should get at least 2 or 3 million), Game Pass is doing better than Netflix was at this time.

PlayStation Plus saw a 10 per cent increase in subs last year. That equalled about four and a bit million people. Game Pass topped that in one quarter. If they keep going the way they're going, Game Pass will top PS Plus by the middle of next year, if not sooner.

So between those two metrics, yes, this is incredible news for MS, and probably way better than they ever hoped internally.

Edit: Numbers misremembered with PS+, but point still stands. Ps+was 22 per cent, which puts it at a few mil more that Game Pass. But we're comparing a year to three months, so I think it's still obvious how well growth is going.

 

[DJTaurus]

And so it begins. It’s a good indication to where we are heading....

 

[Jaybe]

You're getting knocked for what seems like trolling. So here's a genuine answer.

Game Pass is on track to far outpace Netflix at this point in its life cycle. Someone did the math, and if MS can get 500,000 odd new subscribers by June or July (they should get at least 2 or 3 million), Game Pass is doing better than Netflix was at this time.

PlayStation Plus saw a 10 per cent increase in subs last year. That equalled about four and a bit million people. Game Pass topped that in one quarter. If they keep going the way they're going, Game Pass will top PS Plus by the middle of next year, if not sooner.

So between those two metrics, yes, this is incredible news for MS, and probably way better than they ever hoped internally.

Edit: Numbers misremembered with PS+, but point still stands. Ps+was 22 per cent, which puts it at a few mil more that Game Pass. But we're comparing a year to three months, so I think it's still obvious how well growth is going.

Thanks for explaining the rationale for why some people think this is fast growth. If one looks at it from a base of 0 members to what it is now, I can see that. I see it as more conversion or up-selling from a base service (Gold) to a premium service (game pass/GPU). In that sense, the existing Gold membership was and is low hanging fruit to convert particularly with the $1 conversion. I did this myself. A more apt comparison with Netflix would be the movement of standard subs (1 screen, std def) to premium subs (4 screens, 4K). I still think Microsoft are being quite successful with this transition, in numbers and in mindshare especially having a differentiation vs Sony and Nintendo, I guess I’m just not as stunned as others seem to be.

 

[Mmnow]

Thanks for explaining the rationale for why some people think this is fast growth. If one looks at it from a base of 0 members to what it is now, I can see that. I see it as more conversion or up-selling from a base service (Gold) to a premium service (game pass/GPU). In that sense, the existing Gold membership was and is low hanging fruit to convert particularly with the $1 conversion. I did this myself. A more apt comparison with Netflix would be the movement of standard subs (1 screen, std def) to premium subs (4 screens, 4K). I still think Microsoft are being quite successful with this transition, in numbers and in mindshare especially having a differentiation vs Sony and Nintendo, I guess I’m just not as stunned as others seem to be.

I don't remember the exact numbers and don't have time to look them up, but when EA Play was added to Game Pass Ultimate, it was about 6m new accounts. So even at the worst of the worst of the worst, less than a third had done the conversion trick and were still active at that point. Chances are it was much, much less, because not every ultimate account is a conversion. In reality, we're probably not even talking millions, but we don't know.

So with that in mind, combining the two probably isn't even close to being an accurate representation of the situation. How many Gold subs were just for free-to-play games? How many are just for Call of Duty and Fifa? You couldn't convert those people to a new service even if you offered it free, because they're just not interested in anything beyond what they've already got.

In reality, outpacing Netflix when they're on a portion of the devices Netflix was is incredible. You might not be impressed by 23m as a number, but take a look at where Netflix are today and think that if Game Pass continues to grow at this rate, it'll be bigger than that.

 

[ecentre]

You do understand that most of the great AAA games wont be on gamepass day one, just like the Flix?

 

[Torrent of Pork]

I remember cancelling a Hulu sub that I hadn't interacted with for 6 months to cover Game Pass when it first launched. There are at least half a dozen games I absolutely stan for now that I never would have given a second look at it there was a $20 buy-in.

 

[sainraja]

You know you can buy most Netflix original series on physical media?

List of Netflix Originals Available on DVD & Blu-ray

If you’re a long-time reader of this site, you know we often like to challenge ourselves with going down rabbit holes and that’s exactly what we’ve done here. Again. Here’s a list of every Netflix...

www.whats-on-netflix.com

But movies aren't dependent on a specific hardware and you can purchase the movies on so many different platforms (Apple, Google, Amazon or just blu-ray etc.). Yes, it doesn't necessarily indicate what will or won't happen. Since both the PS5/Series X are a controlled environments, there is nothing stopping rent only future. I don't think it will happen but it's also something I wouldn't want.

 

[Aroll]

you are forgetting that Bethesda games will be released on pc as well (steam) where ms games are regularly the top sellers achieving very good sales numbers, also forgetting about mtx in some of these games as well as dlc’s, also not every Xbox owner is gamepass subscriber so these games will still sell copies on Xbox. With all of this taken into consideration, getting back that 7.5bn invested in Bethesda will be easier than you think. Same applies to all other Microsoft owned game studios projects. As far as we know there are no gamepass exclusive games, all of the gp games can be purchased for a price elsewhere. This last bit is something that a lot of people forget about.

I don't think I, or anyone else, is forgetting that. The assumption is: As Game Pass popularity grows, the purchasing of these games outside of game pass will shrink. Time will tell.

 

[Aroll]

It should be a lot easier to realize a profit with a game subscription in comparison to a video streaming service. MS just doesn't need as much content overall.

Even if MS released 12 AAA titles as year at 150m each and 12 AA at say 50m, you're only looking at 2.4b a year in development costs (and that would be unrivaled production). That leaves a lot of cash for day one additions, but how many of those will they really do in a year, 2 a month or 3. The older content will be less expensive, etc. Unless they literally buyout the majority of the gaming market $1b a month as the redline for profit seems quite high.

Sure. Obviously it's a bit different than TV/Movies where consumers want more content because they can finish each piece of content quicker. I was just pointing out that there is a lot of overhead we don't often consider. It may take less than 100 million. But I'm going to stick with that number until proven wrong.

 

[sainraja]

Can't buying it on console. Was just a deal for three months, for new subscribers.

Still being offered:

Join Xbox Game Pass: Discover Your Next Favorite Game | Xbox

Play hundreds of high-quality games all for one low monthly price.

www.xbox.com

 

[kungfuian]

Questions-

What do we imagine will be the saturation point for Gamepass? When will it cap off so to speak. 75 million, 100 million, 200 million... Someone should make a poll.

I'm genuinely interested in how many of the 300 million or so 'traditional' console owners it will convert before that saturation point is hit?

More importantly, what will their strategy be to move beyond the 'traditional' console gamer demographic? Is the market for traditional console games secretly much larger but held back due to required hardware (streaming solutions)?

Or even more important, how can they, if at all, convert the free to play phone gamer? Are these gamers even interested in what are traditionally described as 'console game experiences' and if so how will X-box convert them?

 

[DaGwaphics]

Sure. Obviously it's a bit different than TV/Movies where consumers want more content because they can finish each piece of content quicker. I was just pointing out that there is a lot of overhead we don't often consider. It may take less than 100 million. But I'm going to stick with that number until proven wrong.

I'd say the biggest difference between TV/Movies and video games is just the consumption itself. Gaming is a very active experience even if you are playing something very cinematic/butterfly effect. Where with TV, maybe you are watching that while cooking in the kitchen or any number of household activities. Same with music. The active nature of gaming limits the realistic hours that you have to consume content.

Plus, until the subscription services and GwG and PS+, everyone is used to having a limited amount of content available based on what they purchase, which is another big difference between video and music where you've been able to flip through the channels/stations for years. You could always do traditional rentals, but than you have tight time limits and the individual fees can add up, or the postage limitations of GameFly, etc.

 

[DaGwaphics]

Questions-

What do we imagine will be the saturation point for Gamepass? When will it cap off so to speak. 75 million, 100 million, 200 million... Someone should make a poll.

I'm genuinely interested in how many of the 300 million or so 'traditional' console owners it will convert before that saturation point is hit?

More importantly, what will their strategy be to move beyond the 'traditional' console gamer demographic? Is the market for traditional console games secretly much larger but held back due to required hardware (streaming solutions)?

Or even more important, how can they, if at all, convert the free to play phone gamer? Are these gamers even interested in what are traditionally described as 'console game experiences' and if so how will X-box convert them?

Good questions to ponder. Another similar question would be "How many users with non-gaming PCs (run of the mill basic laptops and desktop towers) would take an interest if streaming made gaming something easily attainable for them?".

The one advantage to the PC/Mobile/Smart TV streaming situation is even if the uptake of GP was very low by percentage, it could still represent a sizable number of subscribers, just based on the vast number of potential customers.

 

[Jemm]

Microsoft sees Game Pass as an option, not the ultimate goal for all gamers:

"It's not like I've got a crystal ball and I can tell somebody what GamePass is going to look like in five years. What I can say is that our motivation is not to turn everybody into a subscriber. We think it's an option for people. We're not pulling our games out of retail. In fact, we've expanded. We put them on Steam. We have some games in the [Epic Games Store]. We are out there to give more options to go buy our games. We obviously support free-to-play games, which don't have a big role today in Game Pass."

They are also not interested in games, that would be tailored only for the Game Pass model:

Spencer also highlighted that Xbox sometimes receives pitches of games that can only work as part of the Game Pass model, which isn't necessarily what the platform holder is after by the sounds of it.

"What I've said for the longest time publicly -- and I believe this -- is I'm not creating Game Pass to take options away from people. Like you can go buy Tell Me Why at retail, you can buy Flight Sim at retail, and I think it's healthy that our industry has multiple business models.

Quotes from: https://www.gamesindustry.biz/artic...on-is-not-to-turn-everybody-into-a-subscriber

 

[DaGwaphics]

@ Jemm , good read, thanks for posting.

I still don't think MS brass would be crying if every gamer did decide to take up a GP sub, but still. Well, on second thought, there might be tears of joy involved.

 

[DJTaurus]

 

[darthpaxton]

Impressive. Personally I don't really like gamepass especially how Microsoft is forcing it so aggressive. But apparently iam one of the few

In what way? They do almost no marketing outside their social media channels and don't provide any major benefits that aren't available by just buying the games a la carte, like locking content or demos/betas behind GamePass.

 

[Fredrik]

I purchased the Series X end of Dec. That's the deal i got on the console. The 1 Euro deal ended sometime in March. Bought some DLC through gamepass so unlikely to start a new account. Too much bother anyhow and 12.99 Euros a month a good deal for gold and gamepass, as a package.

You should checkout EA Play 12 month cards. They go for about $20 and gives you 4 months extension of Game Pass Ultimate on your main account. They’re stackable so you can get a year of Gamepass for about $60, which gives you a monthly cost at about $5. I don’t know how far you can stack and prepay but at least until 2024.

 

[DaGwaphics]

In what way? They do almost no marketing outside their social media channels and don't provide any major benefits that aren't available by just buying the games a la carte, like locking content or demos/betas behind GamePass.

This. GP is just one option available, not the only option. MS is unlikely to sell a GP subscription to every Xbox owner, in the same way that neither Sony nor MS sell paid online to every console owner. Thus, individual sales will always be a thing on Xbox. The percentage of uptake will probably be lower on PC than console (amongst the group with a capable enough GPU), so GP isn't destroying the sales market on PC either. I don't know where all that craziness comes from.

Most GP advertising is via the gaming media when they cover a big addition. I can't blame them for covering it, why not spread the word about the best value in gaming.

 

[Markio128]

It doesn’t get much duller than a game pass thread, does it? I’m trying hard to give my own insightful opinion of the service, but I just can’t be arsed.

 

[DJTaurus]

 

[kyoji]

No GP numbers huh? lol

 

[DJTaurus]

 

[GymWolf]