Your analysis is flawed, since A substantial part of that revenue you cite comes from Warzone. Which - along with its sequel - will still remain on PlayStation.
The discussion really is around the usual annual releases or stuff like Overwatch 2.
You’re also not factoring in the fact that keeping COD exclusive, or adding it to Gamepass would bring in a decent chunk of customers. If sales on console drop, to be replaced by an additional 5 million people paying MS $10 a month, that could easily be seen as a very decent trade-off.
This $10/month, which the reality is that it will be smaller due to $1 for new customers, $1 to upgrade from Gold, free months of PC GP, cheaper prices in cd key stores, cheaper prices in other countries, refunds and chargebacks, taxes and online transaction cots etc. won't be revenue for that yearly CoD. Will be revenue split between tons of games and the GP service itself. That yearly CoD will receive way less revenue per user from GP than these $10. And even if would be $10 or even $15, these are way less than a full price sold unit would have generated at PC, Xbox or PS.
Plus on top of that, not everyone who played CoD on PS will join GP/Xbox/PC. Many (or most) of them pretty likely will remain on PS playing other games, or if in addition to owning a PS they also have an Xbox or gaming PC, pretty likely many of them already have GP. So they may earn a few million subs for GP but they would be losing way more customers they had on PS.
And regarding microtransactions/dlc/passes on PC and Xbox for the console CoD games, which now would be their main revenue source, will generate less revenue per user than before because if the average player buys a couple of games per year, with Gamepass will be distracted with the flood of new games so will be less engaged with CoD/will spend less time with CoD/so will spend less on DLC/mtx/passes.
So if they make the future yearly CoD Xbox console exclusive and put them day one on GP:
-They'll lose all their PS revenue, which is half of what their generate
-They'll lose the game sale revenue of a huge portion of the Xbox and PC units from people who will play it on GP instead of buying it
-The revenue it would generate from its proportional part of GP subs will be way smaller than the one it generated with sales
-The average revenue per user for mtx/iap/passes will be smaller
-Before each one of these games provided a great profit, now would generate a great loss
And yes, I also think Warzone and Warzone 2 will remain in PS. In addition to all the future yearly CoD if Microsoft, ABK and Spencer do what they said they will do and if they want to keep getting profits from these games.
We’ve seen with Bethesda that Microsoft is more interested in Gamepass subscriber growth than ‘leaving money on the table’.
All Zenimax games, dlcs and updates released since the acquisition have been released on PS (plus the upcoming Ghostwire Tokyo).
In theory Starfield, Redfall and ES6 will be console exclusive, but the Xbox CFO said that their strategy for Bethesda won't be to make them exclusive but instead 'first or better' on Xbox. So maybe a year or so after release they say that decided to change their mind and to port them to PS5. It wouldn't be the first or second time Sony or MS does this.
When was that ever said that they want to keep all previously multiplatform IP as lifetime multiplatform titles? You imagine Elder Scrolls 6 will not be exclusive ?
They said it multiple times, that their plan with Mojang/Zenimax/ABK acquisiton wasn't to remove franchises/games/IPs/communities from other platforms, that they were going to keep supporting their communities/franchises where they already are, that their strategy for Bethesda wasn't to make them exclusive but instead 'first or better' on Xbox (so multiplatform or timed exclusives), that with ABK they were going to keep doing it and mentioned Minecraft as example, Phil saying that they wanted to keep CoD on PS, etc.
I imagine that most future games from big IPs from Mojang, Bethesda and ABK will continue releasing on PS as MS said, even if a few of them -particularly the Bethesda ones that the Xbox CFO was mentioning- will be "first or better" on Xbox. Meaning that some will be timed exclusives and a couple of these timed exclusives could be Starfield and Elder Scrolls 6.
I think 'minor' IPs from 'minor' studios like Ninja Theory, Obsidian, Arkane or Double Fine could be full console exclusive as older MS IPs, like Halo or Gears.