DeepBreath87
Banned
You can test positive with the current test kits for a long time. Mostly those people are shedding RNA from inactive virus.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check
- Thread starter keraj37
- Start date
- Status
Ar¢tos
Member
Who placed a bet on Plague for July?
Claim your prize! A trip to Mongolia!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8487741/Mongolia-quarantines-region-near-Russian-border-outbreak-PLAGUE.html
Can Asians PLEASE stop eating every wild animal they see?
Claim your prize! A trip to Mongolia!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8487741/Mongolia-quarantines-region-near-Russian-border-outbreak-PLAGUE.html
Can Asians PLEASE stop eating every wild animal they see?
Batiman
Banned
My place requires you to be negative before returning. We had an outbreak in March but were recovered now. 10 days isn’t long enough as Covid tends to last longer than that.
DeepBreath87
Banned
I mean it’s 10 days post symptoms. But they are also saying people with known exposures, like positive families can continue to work unless they show symptoms. I mean we’ve questioned it, but I’m not as worried about this disease anymore. I protect my at risk family members and encourage them to protect themselves. That’s really all you can do.
Your country was predicted at 60 k deaths total, you are now at around 130k, it’s a shit show already with today’s standards.The problem (?) is that for a once-in-100-year world changing event, the death numbers aren't really all that high in the grand scheme of things. As an entire country, we're currently at 105% total mortality compared to the three year average. A large part of this is New York City alone which is at 208% (!!!) of their three year average, followed by New Jersey at 143%.
Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
National Center for Health Statisticswww.cdc.gov
Florida is currently at 100%, meaning it's exactly in line with the average.
All signs indicate that this shit peaked in April like most countries. A second wave may happen, I don't know, but what if it doesn't? What if we come in at a total mortality rate of 105% or even less when all is said and done? What will the doomsayers say then?
and numbers are still rising .
Last edited:
abstract alien
Member
The hospital I'm in turned two extra units into full Covid units due to the spike here in Texas (Houston area), and shut down another unit completely to help with staffing.
Nothing wrong #justflu
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
60k was one prediction of many in a single moment of time. Why is that the one you choose to highlight? Because it makes it easier to grandstand and mock?
There was also a 200k prediction and many other higher (and lower) predictions. Some thought we would be at 3k deaths per day by early June. The key point is that no one knows how this will go.
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
Stolen from Twitter:
Joe T.
Member
It was initially projected that the US could see as many as 2.2 million deaths if they went about life as usual (some areas more or less did) and anywhere between 100,000 to 240,000 deaths within the two following months (April and May). The US did better than expected and you qualify that as a "shit show." The media shoots itself in the head every day with its ridiculously poor reporting, there's no need for you to do the same.
Washington Post, April 1st:
NBC News:
ABC News:
The US did about as well as could be expected given the "shit show" that manifested itself in the hyper-polarized state of American politics, those politics unfortunately affecting the scientific community, and the news coverage which would be disgraceful even in a world where Trump didn't exist.
I'm Canadian and I'm tired of seeing the US held up as an example of how not to do things when the biggest culprits in my eyes are those tasked with educating and informing us: schools, health experts and major news outlets - if they did their jobs right we would all be in a much better place today all around the world. The US federal government delivered everything they could to the states that needed it, they got more than they needed and sooner than expected which you, again, interpret as a "shit show."
People aren't mad because the US is a shit show, people are mad because Trump didn't act like the dictator they wanted to believe him to be. They want him to make masks and social distancing mandatory, punishable by fines nationwide. They want him to keep most of the economy closed until a vaccine is created. They want him to make the impossible possible by testing absolutely everyone several times over. They want him to wear a mask and kneel to a large crowd of Marxist Black Lives Matter protesters mostly comprised of uninformed, uneducated young people tired of the mitigation efforts like Trudeau did, not realizing those protests helped spread the virus. They didn't want him to do all of this because it was the right thing to do, they simply wanted to separate him from his base of support and lend some credibility to his opposition's claim that he was abusing his power. Civics are important.
Everyone needs to come to grips with the fact that this virus can't be snuffed out for the same reason that it became a pandemic in the first place: the Chinese Communist Party can't be trusted.
You could close every country down for 2, 3, 4 months straight, including cancelling all international travel, to eliminate every last case of the virus, but what good will that do us when China might let an infected patient fly out of their country and start this pandemic all over again? Hold the Chinese Communist Party accountable. Hold your government accountable for not putting more pressure on China to allow international investigators. Then and only then will we be able to get back to life as we knew it pre-Wuhan flu.
xellos2099alpha
Member
I agree with what you said but Trump is not helping by having in door rally with no mask requirement and the mount rushmore celebration.
Dr.Guru of Peru
played the long game
The actual White House/CDC prediction in March was 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the USA with mitigation measures from Covid19 over the total curve, not over the next two months. The whitehouse even acknowledged that suggested mitigation measures would be left to the local governments, so there was likely varying degrees of adherence bakes into their prediction. The bolded “couple of months” is NBCs wording (and you’re likely interpreting it too literally). They weren’t wrong.
Not sure what holding China “accountable” will do to slow down the virus. That seems like wishful thinking.
Last edited:
infinitys_7th
Member
The answer outside of Japan (if you don't count fish being served flayed and alive) is no.
12Goblins
Lil’ Gobbie
Some people will stay positive for months (not contagious)
Joe T.
Member
Nope, but that's where personal responsibility comes into play. No one needs their elected leaders holding their hands through life and this virus will be with us for at least a year. It's up to everyone to decide whether it's safe or not for them to attend an event like that, if they have to worry about co-workers or high risk family members, etc. It's no doubt why attendance was low at the Tulsa rally and digital/TV viewership was much higher than usual.
You can read it however you like, the point stands either way.
Holding China accountable has nothing to do with slowing the virus and everything to do with ensuring something like this doesn't happen again. What's to stop them from doing something like this again if they'll face no consequences this time around? They have a history of lab accidents, it would have been in their best interest to allow international investigators in to clear that lingering doubt from everyone's mind. Unless they had something to hide.
BadBurger
Is 'That Pure Potato'
We deserve it. Other nations had no issues wearing masks, performing better testing and tracing while providing free healthcare, performed shut downs more quickly, opened more slowly and in a more controlled fashion, etc. So now their economies are back on the rise, their pandemics completely flattened, and they have to keep us out of their countries. I mean, oh the irony of that after Trump's rhetoric and actions these past several years regarding certain types of immigration. Now we're a legit and not imaginery immigration threat to other countries. It's all a sad state of affairs.
Well we are. You fucked it up, look at your numbers.
2 million predicted deaths would be terrible for the US In this age of technology and healthcare. Spanish flu 100 years ago had a count between 600k - 850 k for the us .
spanish flu here in the Netherlands if counts are correct took 60k in a couple of years, we are now at 6k for now, so we did pretty good.
spanish flu here in the Netherlands if counts are correct took 60k in a couple of years, we are now at 6k for now, so we did pretty good.
DeepBreath87
Banned
Now multiple that number (650k) by 3 since there are now more than 3x the number of people in the US compared to 1918. To reach Spanish Flu levels of death, you’re talking about 1.9 million deaths.
Ar¢tos
Member
Looking at all the footage from America that I see on the news, and how people that wear masks are bullied in public because of the masks. I think the virus already said : Challenge Accepted!
DeepBreath87
Banned
Yeah. Be careful with the news. The US won’t reach 300,000 deaths from this. My upper limit prediction is around 200,000
Last edited:
And take into account , more technology advanced , more advanced science , more advanced in general , better hygiene , so you think such a number is acceptable in this age? While other equally advanced countries curbed the first wave? So you think such numbers are fine ? That a country like the USA reaches numbers equal like 100 years ago? Honest question?
because to me , it would look terrible , and I love the USA in general , did 2 roadtrips there on both East and west, love New York, Florida , so for me seeing it unfold is a bit heartbreaking.
Last edited:
Ar¢tos
Member
Better tech and hygiene don't mean much when parts of the population don't have access to them. And because parts of the population don't have access to them, many diseases will never eradicated since there is always someone carrying them in those groups.
Look at how Leprosy is making a return in homeless people in America, and we only see a small part of the problem, since Leprosy has an incubation period of 5-20 years and the treatment is quite long (6 months - 1 year), making it hard for someone homeless to get cured.
DeepBreath87
Banned
1.9 million deaths would be a damn catastrophe. However the US won’t reach a quarter of that. It sucks, but we are here. And you can be responsible for your own risk. That’s all you can do.
If you aren’t over 65 years old or have diabetes, statistically speaking, you will be fine. Just do your best to protect other people. Honestly I don’t know why that hasn’t been the messaging from all sides. The shaming and grandstanding is just as counter productive as the denialism.
MisterFalcon
Member
From what I see the far more advanced technology does not reduce deaths enough. It enabled the virus to spread far more quickly due to mass air travel and is now sabotaging efforts to slow the spread through social media. Combine this with the population having way more vulnerable people (who had already died to TB or other diseases in 1918) and today's world can easily be heading to a higher per capita death toll then 100 years ago.
DeepBreath87
Banned
Theoretically, this is true. However in 1918 we didn’t even have concentrated oxygen available to the public. Also this disease just isn’t severe enough to cause death on that scale.
Last edited:
Social distancing is dead: Revellers pack Britain's city centres to down 15million pints as pubs close early due to 'major disorder' but Matt Hancock declares end of lockdown 'a success'
www.dailymail.co.uk
Looking at these photos, which show the undignified behaviour that increasingly characterises Britain's drinking culture, you'd be forgiven for thinking that Covid-19 doesn't exist.
Social distancing appears to go out the window as pubs and bars reopen
Social distancing was declared to be in tatters today after jubilant drinkers called time on lockdown and descended on the UK's pubs.
Looking at these photos, which show the undignified behaviour that increasingly characterises Britain's drinking culture, you'd be forgiven for thinking that Covid-19 doesn't exist.
p_xavier
Authorized Fister
Well it's in the region of Khovd too. God's trolling all of us.
Birdo
Banned
The media and Black Lives Matter set the precedent. People just assume that it's okay to gather now.
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
Their total capacity across 12 hospitals is around 1,000 people?
Social distancing is dead: Revellers pack Britain's city centres to down 15million pints as pubs close early due to 'major disorder' but Matt Hancock declares end of lockdown 'a success'
Social distancing appears to go out the window as pubs and bars reopen
Social distancing was declared to be in tatters today after jubilant drinkers called time on lockdown and descended on the UK's pubs.
Looking at these photos, which show the undignified behaviour that increasingly characterises Britain's drinking culture, you'd be forgiven for thinking that Covid-19 doesn't exist.
Are masks not being required/recommended at all in the UK?
Last edited by a moderator:
cryptoadam
Banned
I would like to know how many patients are black or brown.
Nationally whites only make up 33% of hosptilizations. Some places 74% of people were black.
I mean people who disproportionately make up hospitalizations out 24/7 for 5 weeks spreading it around what do they think is going to happen.
Did you know more blacks died in the USA than all of Africa. And that includes Egypt which isnt black.
Nationally whites only make up 33% of hosptilizations. Some places 74% of people were black.
I mean people who disproportionately make up hospitalizations out 24/7 for 5 weeks spreading it around what do they think is going to happen.
Did you know more blacks died in the USA than all of Africa. And that includes Egypt which isnt black.
It's mandatory on all public transport in the UK (you risk a fine if you don't wear one). In Scotland, a mask is also mandatory in shops but that rule doesn't apply to the rest of the country.
Last edited:
DeepBreath87
Banned
Hospitals are almost always fairly full. However it is a situation to be monitored closely. If the trends continue, it will be a larger issue. But at this point it’s still just something to monitor. They’ve made some appropriate adjustments down there. Hopefully that will slow things down a bit. Humanitarian crisis is useless hyperbole at this time.
showernota
Member
I've been tracking ICU hospitalizations for my state, and am starting to realize what a bullshit metric that is now. ICU beds are the new ventilators, notice how no one cares about vents anymore? Probably because we learned they were usually a death sentence. Now ICU bed usage is the new panic metric for some reason, probably because there are less of them than regular beds, and they can make the headlines sound more dire. Plus, ICU = ventilators is probably a subconscious thought for most people now. I'll be tracking all bed usage from now on, I just want to know if more people are getting worse (to coincide with the exponential positive case numbers).
I say this as someone who has only left the house 4 times since March due to a family member who in immunosuppressed. I've taken this shit seriously, but at some point I have to wonder whats really going on (and "wait two weeks" started to feel like bullshit back in April, that's a meme now)
I say this as someone who has only left the house 4 times since March due to a family member who in immunosuppressed. I've taken this shit seriously, but at some point I have to wonder whats really going on (and "wait two weeks" started to feel like bullshit back in April, that's a meme now)
Last edited:
DeepBreath87
Banned
The ICU bed thing is real, but there is some flexibility. Usually you can move some patients out of ICU earlier than you normally would and just watch them closely elsewhere. Then you stop doing surgeries that aren’t emergent because usually a few of those end up in ICU for a couple of days. Then they can create flex icu beds in other areas of the hospital, like PACUs and ORs.
Now that’s not great because ICU level care requires ICU trained staff, but I don’t think anyone is really there yet.
showernota
Member
But what does an ICU bed offer for COVID patients that cant be supplied at a regular bed, besides ventilators? Apologies if that is a dumb question, but it seemed like the main distinction since this all kicked off. I understand better trained staff, faster response times for people crashing, and maybe a better process of keeping COVID positive patients quarantined from non-positive patients, but I haven't heard of any treatment that requires an ICU bed for moderate cases.
bRacing
Banned
When the doctors themselves tell you there’s a problem, you listen. The alternative is to listen to morons who say stupid shit like the virus is going to simply disappear. Or people who claim it only harms 1 percent of the people infected. Wait, that was the same stable genius.
cryptoadam
Banned
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
What do you do when lots of different doctors are saying lots of different things?
Just listen to whatever the latest expert tells you?
In your case, it's more likely that you listen to whomever has the narrative that paints Trump in the worst light possible, since he's all you seem to care about.
Last edited by a moderator:
DeepBreath87
Banned
The ICU bed is more about the staff than the equipment. Most nurses and doctors don’t have experience taking care of critically ill people. So if you have more of those than you do icu beds/icu staff, the level of care will start to drop just because the staff caring for the patient isn’t experienced/trained to handle them.
Last edited:
DeepBreath87
Banned
Doctors aren’t some monolithic voice. There will be doctors saying all kinds of things all the time. The disease will be what it is. But no one is dying due to lack of care even according to even that tweet. Things may get to that point, but they are not there currently.
Last edited:
12Goblins
Lil’ Gobbie
Negative pressure rooms, albeit not all ICU rooms are negative pressure, but they generally have more than a non intensive or critical care unit. These rooms are essential for non invasive ventilation (bipap) use as those devices spray aerosols into the air, contaminating staff, other patients, etc
Last edited:
bRacing
Banned
Actually people are dying for that very reason. There were Texas doctors talking about how they don't have enough beds for all corona patients and therefore they have to use criteria on who to help and who to not give a bed too. And no, doctors are not a monolithic voice but when the ones currently in hospitals being stressed beyond belief tell you there's a problem, there's a fucking problem.
cryptoadam
Banned
So tell brown and black people to stay home. They make up the majority of hospitlizations. Whites only make up 30% od hospitizations.
infinitys_7th
Member
That was in 3 hospitals.
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
But oh boy did they tell him what he wanted to hear.
Coronavirus on track to overwhelm Houston hospitals in two weeks, mayor says
Hospitals in Houston, Texas are on track to be overwhelmed in approximately two weeks as coronavirus cases mount, Mayor Sylvester Turner said on Sunday.
In Houston, the percentage of tests for the virus coming back positive has risen to nearly 25%. Turner said that people of color were being disproportionately impacted, particularly Hispanic residents.
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
The fact that positive results are *not* increasing in New York despite increased testing makes me think that this virus burns through the population (reaches a sort of herd immunity) a lot quicker than we thought.
They went from a 50% positive test result to total tests performed ratio, but have been flat at around 1~2% for a long time now.
coronavirus.jhu.edu
They went from a 50% positive test result to total tests performed ratio, but have been flat at around 1~2% for a long time now.
Daily Testing Trends in New York - Johns Hopkins
See daily changes in tests performed and positivity rates in New York
coronavirus.jhu.edu
Last edited by a moderator:
- Status