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[lifa-cobex]

This post only makes sense if you fundamentally don't understand what a Live Service game is.

Marathon was delayed.
Is still bad.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Marathon was delayed.
Is still bad.

Again, a misunderstanding of what Live Service is. Season 2 is a week away.

 

[Mengy]

Again, a misunderstanding of what Live Service is. Season 2 is a week away.

What they've announced so far for S2 sounds....very lacking, in my opinion. Sure there will be a blip up in the CCU for the new season, but my gut feeling is it won't have any significant long term impact on the CCU trend. There just isn't enough content nor positive changes in S2 to improve the game much.

Now, that could change if they have some huge positive surprises coming with S2. I just don't expect they will. I think S3 or S4 is the earliest we'll potentially see some positive long term CCU impacts, not S2.

 

[Sohurmk833]

Again, a misunderstanding of what Live Service is. Season 2 is a week away.

Season 2 will be shit too. And every other season until Marathon and Bungie finally shut down.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

What they've announced so far for S2 sounds....very lacking, in my opinion. Sure there will be a blip up in the CCU for the new season, but my gut feeling is it won't have any significant long term impact on the CCU trend. There just isn't enough content nor positive changes in S2 to improve the game much.

Now, that could change if they have some huge positive surprises coming with S2. I just don't expect they will. I think S3 or S4 is the earliest we'll potentially see some positive long term CCU impacts, not S2.

We'll have a much better look at S2 this week.

Go look at the Hunt Showdown and Escape from Tarkov season changes from the past. Marathon doesn't need a revolutionary update to build player base.

 

[Negotiator101]

This post only makes sense if you fundamentally don't understand what a Live Service game is.

I can't work out if you're a half wit or a troll but you're at least good for a laugh.

 

[kat_on_the_roof]

Again, a misunderstanding of what Live Service is. Season 2 is a week away.

Let's hope they start season 2 with a hefty sale of the marathon base game.

 

[simpatico]

You guys think there are thousands of people walking around today as we speak, who have dozens of hours of Marathon in their immediate future, hinging on Bungie making the correct QOL changes with Season 2? I think the art style precludes it from being able to benefit from large, viral growth based on what can accomplished in seasonal changes to an established game. Marathon is cooked, but Sony seems determined to burn tens of millions more chasing it down the drain.

 

[Guilty_AI]

Again, a misunderstanding of what Live Service is. Season 2 is a week away.

A game where you pay more for less under the promise that maybe, perhaps some day it'll get mildly good in the future possibly?

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I can't work out if you're a half wit or a troll but you're at least good for a laugh.

There's two possible scenarios...

1. You understand how that Miyamoto quote applies to Live Service games, but believe pretending it doesn't offers more value to you somehow.

2. You do not understand how that quote applies to Live Service games.

Neither scenario illustrates you striving to become a better individual. This saddens me.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

A game where you pay more for less under the promise that maybe, perhaps some day it'll get mildly good in the future possibly?

$40 dollars for 200+ hours of entertainment...and genuine excitement for Season 2: Nightfall...is "paying more for less"? Continued development AFTER they got my money?

How many $70 Resident Evil Reqiuem players played that game for more than 30 hours? Development stops AFTER they got your money?

We must be better than this.

 

[duhmetree]

Maybe I'm full of copium... but if they integrate more PvE, make solo viable and add more casual loops, I see the player-base growing.

 

[Guilty_AI]

$40 dollars for 200+ hours of entertainment...and genuine excitement for Season 2: Nightfall...is "paying more for less"?

[...]

How many $70 Resident Evil Reqiuem players played that game for more than 30 hours?

My dude, you can play any game for a 1000 hours if you want. What matters is the amount of content and Marathon is thoroughly lacking in it.

Continued development AFTER they got my money?

Monetized development you mean. You're still paying for that development, especially if they follow their previous Destiny 2 paid expansion strategy, which appears to be increasingly more likely.

 

[DarkShadowXI]

Maybe I'm full of copium... but if they integrate more PvE, make solo viable and add more casual loops, I see the player-base growing.

They have a LOT of work cut out for them. It might be plausible, but it's unlikely in my book.

I truly hope they can turn it around, but I'm not confident.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

My dude, you can play any game for a 1000 hours if you want.

Some games are designed for that. Sone games are designed for planned obsolescence / the backlog.

What matters is the amount of content and Marathon is thoroughly lacking in it.

Content is meaningless. Fun is the goal.

Monetized development you mean. You're still paying for that development, especially if they follow their previous Destiny 2 paid expansion strategy, which appears to be increasingly more likely.

I only paid $40 and they'll continue working on the game. I don't have to pay another dime.

Destiny 2 was cheeks.

 

[Guilty_AI]

Some games are designed for that.

Most good ones are. Resident Evil Requiem you keep mentioned was designed with multiple playthroughs in mind, there are people with 100+ hours in it.

Content is meaningless. Fun is the goal.

A pack of cards is fun

I don't have to pay another dime.

It appears you are not very familiar with bungie yet

 

[Shubh_C63]

Marathon won't be doing expansions though will they. Its just microtranscations or bust. Can't put new shells and characters under paid section also.
If someone likes the game Its a good value for money compared to paid/annual seasonal pass Destiny does.

 

[Guilty_AI]

Marathon won't be doing expansions though will they.

 

[duhmetree]

I can see Marathon going the way of Destiny eventually.... if they even make it that far... a base f2p game with paid expansions.

btw Bungie has done a horrible job with monetization. Their skins are as bland as it gets. I expect emotes to make an appearance soon.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

Again, a misunderstanding of what Live Service is. Season 2 is a week away.

What is your honest guess at CCU numbers one week after season 2 drops

Be honest and not a number just to poke people

 

[simpatico]

The other thing that makes this impossible is that Sony is counting on the same guys who needed half a billion dollars to make 4 maps to come in and fix this thing. It's not like they're bringing in fresh creatives with a track record; it's the same people who proved they require a million dollars for each rock texture.

I only paid $40 and they'll continue working on the game. I don't have to pay another dime.

And look. Even the most animated supporters are defiant in their stance to not buy any of the skins. And with the game coming in at $40, its price depends on most everyone buying some amount of skins.

 

[Zacfoldor]

I'm so curious how S2 will go, ccuwise, lol.

 

[Guilty_AI]

I'm so curious how S2 will go, ccuwise, lol.

Probably will rise to 15k - 20k and fall even lower than now afterwards

 

[Mengy]

Maybe I'm full of copium... but if they integrate more PvE, make solo viable and add more casual loops, I see the player-base growing.

No I agree, those would be great changes which would probably grow the playerbase.

Now, will Bungie do that in a meaningful fashion? That's the improbable part, at least not quickly enough to save the game. Certailny not S2, maybe S3 or S4? Can the game limp along for 6-12 months until then?

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

What is your honest guess at CCU numbers one week after season 2 drops

Be honest and not a number just to poke people

~35k - 40k peak, but I'll be paying more attention to drop rate and floor improvements.

As clarky has been saying, I think S3 & S4 is when they start adding pizza and burgers to this raw veal only restaurant. That'll be when they start going after a wider variety of players. S2 will just be a better version S1 which only appeals to people like me.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

It's got to go up.

If cryo and big patch days can edge up the CCU, then a new season with a new map, class etc... has got to bump it way more.

As a gauge, those things bumped up CCU somewhere between 15-20% each time.

It's got to be way higher unless what some people estimate is true and a big reset actually makes people drop off. But there can't be that many casuals left, so the remaining core gamers will likely stick around and any core gamers who dropped off already might get back on.

 

[GermanZepp]

c'mon Marathon you can do it! you can be sustainable!

 

[pepeno]

This post only makes sense if you fundamentally don't understand what a Live Service game is.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

And look. Even the most animated supporters are defiant in their stance to not buy any of the skins. And with the game coming in at $40, its price depends on most everyone buying some amount of skins.

Live Service games don't really work like that. The majority won't pay for new skins. The whales will pay for too many skins.

I may be a whale when it comes to understanding and communicating my knowledge of videogames to you laymen, but I'm not a whale when it comes to MTX. Bazinga!

 

[zaga]

Today has been the worst day by far for matchmaking

Just had 6 red screens of death (oregano errors) when trying to start a game

So 60 minutes of waiting for nothing

 

[Timberwolf25]

Today has been the worst day by far for matchmaking

Just had 6 red screens of death (oregano errors) when trying to start a game

So 60 minutes of waiting for nothing

Maintenance day, so maybe they broke something while "fixing" shit.
Maybe this is a sign

 

[zaga]

Maintenance day, so maybe they broke something while "fixing" shit.
Maybe this is a sign

The maintenance patch was huge (1.5gb) for a patch that did seemingly nothing

 

[Guilty_AI]

Live Service games don't really work

fixed

 

[Timberwolf25]

The maintenance patch was huge (1.5gb) for a patch that did seemingly nothing

Not nothing. It did break matchmaking

 

[StreetsofBeige]

It's early, but so far down at 1 pm completed hour compared to some weekdays. Make note rest of season there's 24/7 Cryo Ranked and whatever XP and loot perks opened up from last week's update.

Today 6.9k
Yesterday 9.1k, peaked at 11.1k. Holiday Monday
Fri 8.9k, peaked at 11.4k
Last Wed 7.7k, peaked at 12.1k
Last Tue 8.1k, peaked at 11.9k

All over the place. Maybe the peak ends up tonight around 10.5 - 11k.

 

[TheLikou]

Season 2 at it's best will put this game only around 25k to 30k. And if people don't like the new modes it'll sunk very, very fast.

 

[Tertullian]

The other thing that makes this impossible is that Sony is counting on the same guys who needed half a billion dollars to make 4 maps to come in and fix this thing. It's not like they're bringing in fresh creatives with a track record; it's the same people who proved they require a million dollars for each rock texture.

This is such a good point lol

 

[Kronark]

$40 dollars for 200+ hours of entertainment...and genuine excitement for Season 2: Nightfall...is "paying more for less"? Continued development AFTER they got my money?

How many $70 Resident Evil Reqiuem players played that game for more than 30 hours? Development stops AFTER they got your money?

We must be better than this.

Ohhh yeah continued development at Bungie is great. They'll upgrade the Marathon engine and then decide Dire Marsh isn't worth the week it should take an intern to update it to the new engine so the map is just gone forever now. Then they'll add some bullshit mechanic you don't like to increase grinding / fomo / engagement and guess what that's just part of the experience now, forever.

At least my copy of Resident Evil 9 will be complete and playable whenever I like. I'll take a 5 hour amazing experience over 200+ hours of live service manipulative slop any day of the week.

 

[Conflict NZ]

The maintenance patch was huge (1.5gb) for a patch that did seemingly nothing

Typically those kind of patches are prep for the new season.

 

[cormack12]

The maintenance patch was huge (1.5gb) for a patch that did seemingly nothing

They have deployed. The vault.

 

[Witchilich]

What is your honest guess at CCU numbers one week after season 2 drops

Be honest and not a number just to poke people

~35k - 40k peak, but I'll be paying more attention to drop rate and floor improvements.

As clarky has been saying, I think S3 & S4 is when they start adding pizza and burgers to this raw veal only restaurant. That'll be when they start going after a wider variety of players. S2 will just be a better version S1 which only appeals to people like me.

We are watching. Don't use statements like "You don't understand how live service games work" next time.

Remember, you already lied

What do u think should be considered good 24h peak ccu for marathon after a month, 30k? More? Less?
Coz since its gaas it doesnt matter that much how many players it attracts but rather how many players it can retain longterm.

North of 30k on Steam. On-boarding is a lot worse than I imagined but again...this game will retain. I think this will hit its floor relatively quickly.

If we don't get a half dozen temp bans in the CCU thread post Marathon release it will mean we've all been domesticated like pugs.

In no world a live service game reaching below 10k CCU can be excused with "Wait for next season". Even after pulling the plug, Destiny 2 is above 15k.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Ohhh yeah continued development at Bungie is great. They'll upgrade the Marathon engine and then decide Dire Marsh isn't worth the week it should take an intern to update it to the new engine so the map is just gone forever now. Then they'll add some bullshit mechanic you don't like to increase grinding / fomo / engagement and guess what that's just part of the experience now, forever.

I've played a lot of Live Service games in my day. None of them have gone the way of your made up scenario here.

At least my copy of Resident Evil 9 will be complete and playable whenever I like. I'll take a 5 hour amazing experience over 200+ hours of live service manipulative slop any day of the week.

"I should play RE Requiem again. I really should..."

 

[Conflict NZ]

LMAO the subreddit is essentially banning all CCU discussion. No more weekly posts, there will be one final post and any further discussion has to go in that one post which will be buried on the sub. While announcing that the mods also passive aggressively insult the people who are interested in CCUs.

They're going full head in sand mode.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

5 pm completed hour. 9k

The lowest 5 pm all week was last Weds at 8.5k. It peaked that at 10.8k.

Tracking at 11-11.5k.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Tracking at 11-11.5k.

Came in at 11.4k as expected. Biggest surprise. Something happened as it jumped to 90th place on Global Top Sellers instead of it's usual 150-250th spot

All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 11.4k is -76.9k or -87%

Today vs yesterday: 11.4k vs 11.1k (+0.3k or +3%)

Yesterday's low 3.3k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 3.4.k

Tue vs Tue: 11.4k vs 11.9k (-0.5k or -4%). Trending lately is about -5 to -15% since early May. But more recently better at less than -10%

Ratio method to estimate peaks and valleys
Mon-Thur 3.3:1. For example, a peak of 12k will have a low of 3.6k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1

Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users: 152
Global Top Sellers: 90
Weekly Top Sellers: Unknown. Not on top 100
Top Rated Games: 6,736 (82.72%)

 

[kpopSuperstar]

Came in at 11.4k as expected. Biggest surprise. Something happened as it jumped to 90th place on Global Top Sellers instead of it's usual 150-250th spot

All the news and talk around Bungie messing up, as well as season 2 anticipation, is getting some tiny traction for Marathon. At least it's not in freefall.

 

[JayK47]

StreetsofBeige reminds me of my boss who still tracks Covid numbers. Give it up and move on dude.

 

[Shubh_C63]

Season 2 trailer seems to have gotten some much needed hype.

 

[Kronark]

I've played a lot of Live Service games in my day. None of them have gone the way of your made up scenario here.

What???... That is literally what happened to Destiny, BUNGIE DID THIS ALREADY. The "vaulted" Destiny content is content they couldn't be bothered to update so they just deleted it from the game. The entire first two years of content for Destiny 2 are gone forever now. Other changes are subjective I guess but there's a lot of other shit they did to Destiny to ruin my experience that can't be undone.

I've also played other games ruined by "updates". Team Fortress 2 comes to mind as a classic example. There were good early updates like the payload gamemode and maps, but after a while the game just went to shit with crates / hats / weapons and lost it's gameplay identity. At least in the case of TF2 you could run a modded server to restore the 1.0 gameplay structure.

 

[calico]

S2 marketing boosted it up to lower than last week and lower than the game they are shutting down.