This will be the last one in the form of what we've known it imo.
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It doesn't matter if they kill GaaS, the unique quirky games from Sony that some of us loved are never coming back, the industry has completely changed. Instead of getting GaaS you won't be getting the next Sotc, those type of games don't sell enough anymore for what games cost to make. You will just get another lame ass Marvel game now. It's all catered to the masses and the almighty dollar now.
A change in business models you say?
I keed I keed.
But theyve already abandoned the GaaS Initiative, what other "change in business model" could they be talking about outside of doing ports?
We kinda already know about the PS6 Handheld, PS6S and PS6 Proper.........is that what hes talking about as it isnt exactly common knowledge they "may" have 3 SKUs.
Maybe reducing the budgets and scope of their first party titles.......considering the PS5 generation is almost over and weve not had all their 1st parties release a new product yet, maybe they need to scale down so we get back to smaller more often releases......ask Insomniac how they manage to get so many games out within a small time frame and budget.
unlurkified
Member
I just read this statement as a ploy to muddy the waters around the PS6's launch timing. MLiD has made a pretty convincing case that Sony wouldn't be able to back out of their Fall 2027 launch window even if they wanted to for various reasons. As many have already said, PS5 sales are way down and this is just a ploy to catch a few of the waiters. This isn't any new actual development.
pushing it one more year wouldnt actually be a bad idea. But as others more credible has said it would be the same hardware
winjer
Gold Member
The problem is not the hardware it uses, it's the price for the hardware.
I agree with you I think by then the memory and storage situation could possibly have improved. But they could launch in late 2027 or 2028 still and stick it out with lower sales tbh and lower production volumes until summer 2029 when they can drop the prices to something more affordable.
They cant meaningfully update the hw and release before 2030. And the prices are really driven by speculation and demand for AI so they will come down. Consider that memory prices have gone up by 10x in some cases, not because there is anything technologically better but because of hoarding. So the only option is to either delay and release the same hw at the right prices or launch at low volume production until the prices come back to normal, which they will.
honestly a deepseek moment for memory from CXMT and flash from YMTC would save everyone. If China can flood the global market with cheap ddr5 and SSDs then it would really make AI inference much more accessible. Right now the big players are hoarding anything they can get after Altman's antics last year.
memory is still a commodity. there is nothing meaningfully different from ddr5 made by SkHynix or Samsung or Micron, or when CXMT starts getting it done right and in the large quantities. At some point we are going to move to DDR6 and DDR5 fabs will be plentiful still. I dont see how memory prices can remain so speculatively high even when datacenter build out cannot match demand. At a certain point these companies will be sitting on large quantitiesof hoarded memory that they have to put back into the market if they cant build out all these datacenters in time.The prices and abundance of memory early 2025 that enabled foolishness like 30GB GDDR7 on a mainstream console will never be repeated. Ultra Premium Memory is too valuable to sell at basement prices (3-5$/GB).
Memory is a commodity no longer, memory is now a premium product that commands premium margins.
SKHynix / SEC LSI Workers won't go from 1M USD Bonuses back to 60K Salaries willingly.
Yes.
The 5 hyperscalers are spending 1.6T in 2026-2027 on CAPEX. That's literally the only thing holding up the US economy. If the market for chips and semiconductors goes from that back to 2024 TAM or merely double/triple that, suddenly everyone is clogged with inventory and over leveraged.
My point is that if memory crashes to being cheap, that's a 2008 style crash. That's how far they have inflated this bubble. And thus that scenario is far worse for everyone, gamers included.
KungFucius
King Snowflake
Exactly. Redesign or even tweaking to a higher spec is not going to happen. There would be no benefit to the average consumer and it would increase NRE costs and obviously cost a lot in development. It's pure hope from fanboys.
If the PS6 portable/hybrid is a thing, I would expect that to be prioritized and the real deal system could be a high cost, low volume product that people are going to fight for during drops because it is being scalped for 2-3x cost, even at 1k base price. I have kids into Pokémon, so having another product to split the scalpers' attention might be a good thing there. This is what they are talking about with products and business models, not delaying and upgrading.
Odd possibility here. Sony collaborates with MS on sourcing or some components buying consortium gets established to buy wafers in larger quantities to get a better deal for the 'little' guys.
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HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
Let's be honest, ppl likeHeisenbergFX4 and myself would totally buy that 128GB add on for 5000$.
MCH2024
Member
This is just not true. and it'll increasingly become less true overtime. Just look at the HBM market to see what's on store for the client memory market eventually.
Because the value of the memory has increased. 30GB GDDR7 could be a Game Console sure, but it also could be 50 different things that are more useful and happily able to pay the higher prices.
memory supply is so far behind demand.
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asdasdasdbb
Member
There really aren't that many products that use GDDR other than the consoles and graphics cards. Some crypto cards used it in the past and there's also Rubin CPX.
MCH2024
Member
Memory is memory. There is no magic most memory technologies use the same or similar process nodes. GDDR7 supply can be trivially converted to LPDDR5X for Rubin NVL72. That needs 74TB LPDDR5X Memory per rack, after all.
In the past, 16GB GDDR6 would run below 3$/GB.
Now? I think 7-10$ / GB is the fair market price for GDDR7. GDDR6 spot price is around 12$ currently. So it's an improvement vs now.
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Insane Metal
Member
You guys expecting Kepler or any other insider to just come over and post release date, plans and official specs 1+ year before launch are absolutely delusional.
saintjules
Gold Member
I feel like it would make sense. And then you can charge whatever for the standard edition, which would have that 30GB of RAM.
asdasdasdbb
Member
They're not going to go with 15 GB so they would have to delay a year at least for the 4 GB chips to get 20.
GoldenEye98
posts news as their odd job
Someone needs to ship a console that has next gen APU but tailored for 16GB of mem...
asdasdasdbb
Member
That they screwed up the Pro is exactly why they need a new console to replace it.
unlurkified
Member
Yes there is when Sony has deemed it needs to sell it for $900. They need a newer, more efficient design with a lower BOM. PS6 seems to be designed with that mindset.
nial
Member
They never did and, in fact, Totoki's quote doesn't exactly counter any of their claims (internal release target, SoC manufacturing for Q2 next year). It's the opposite, actually, he pretty much confirmed that they are internally aiming for a FY 2027 release:
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supersale88
Member
Ps5 was kinda underwhelming, dunno how many hardcore players are excited to upgrade. That and the difference wil be even less than ps4->ps5. There is no need to rush this.
Hector Hall
Member
It will release 2027, only thing is wich month and day, how much subsidized, with portable day one or later down the road, if with a japanese only machine as current PS5 digital, etc.
Hector Hall
Member
Underwhelming for you, it has been an amazing machine, great build quality, quality of life and where you can play with quality everything save for Nintendo games.
jm89
Member
Sony speaking about out it now definitely feels like 2027 is still the plan, unless they see some drastic problems in what ever modelling they are doing.
Otherwise there is no reason to be talking about any of this if the launch is 2 years out.
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we can still get that from indies with pared down graphics and over-all production, but amplified by AI to compensate
Hector Hall
Member
Seomel
Member
Lol
Bernardougf
Member
You guys still dreaming about 499 prices are completely delusional .... the dogshit switch2 is 499.
Just wake up.
Bojji
Member
Those prices
Even with those cut down specs are completely unrealistic (ancient PS5 is 600$). 500GB when one game can be 200GB+?
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Hector Hall
Member
Those prices
Even with those cut down specs are completely unrealistic (ancient PS5 is 600$). 500GB when one game can be 200GB+?
Yes, but it would be a way to put it a good price and pass down the extra cost of additional storage to consumer.
As for the memory, RAM crisis will be diminished by end 2027,maybe overcome by 2028. With a component that right now adds as much as 300/350 dollars to the mix, it going down to 100/120 leves could help a lot. I am pretty sure PS6 will be sensibly cheaper that PS5 Pro right now.
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Ancient PS5 is 1TB and PS5 Pro is 2TB.Those prices
Even with those cut down specs are completely unrealistic (ancient PS5 is 600$). 500GB when one game can be 200GB+?
According to this estimate to which Kepler agreed, 30GB RAM alone is $300 and 1TB SSD is $142.
PS6 APU is only $110.
I propose to cut down on memory because it's the most expensive parts. They could probably save $100 for a 20GB RAM and $70 for a 500GB SSD. The current estimate cost for PS6 is $743. 743 minus 170 is 573.
At $573, Sony could sell a PS6 for $499 subsidized. With the 1TB version, the estimate would be $643, Sony can sell it for $599 subsidized.
They would lose less money with 1TB, so that would be the abundant sku and the 500GB only sold for marketing purposes. Just so they can say PS6 is available for $499.
Okay probably the subsidy is a bit steep.
PS6 500GB - $549
PS6 1TB - $ 649
At that price, Sony would only subsidize $24 for the 500GB and sell the 1TB at no profit.
The main point is to cut down on the most expensive prices which is memory to reduce the price. When memory pricess start to normalize, PS6 can probably sell for $399 in the future. But if memory prices is here to stay, at least the PS6 will not be very expensive that will keep it from selling in critical mass.
PS6 Pro can be 30GB with more powerful APU at $999 and it wouldn't matter. The Pro does not need to sell 100M.
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Bojji
Member
Ancient PS5 is 1TB and PS5 Pro is 2TB.
According to this estimate to which Kepler agreed, 30GB RAM alone is $300 and 1TB SSD is $142.
PS6 APU is only $110.
I propose to cut down on memory because it's the most expensive parts. They could probably save $100 for a 20GB RAM and $70 for a 500GB SSD. The current estimate cost for PS6 is $743. 743 minus 170 is 573.
At $567, Sony could sell a PS6 for $499 subsidized. With the 1TB version, the estimate would be $643, Sony can sell it for $599 subsidized.
They would lose less money with 1TB, so that would be the abundant sku and the 500GB only sold for marketing purposes. Just so they can say PS6 is available for $499.
Okay probably the subsidy is a bit steep.
PS6 500GB - $549
PS6 1TB - $ 649
At that price, Sony would only subsidize $24 for the 500GB and sell the 1TB at no profit.
The main point is to cut down on the most expensive prices which is memory to reduce the price. When memory pricess start to normalize, PS6 can probably sell for $399 in the future. But if memory prices is here to stay, at least the PS6 will not be very expensive that will keep it from selling in critical mass.
PS6 Pro can be 30GB with more powerful APU at $999 and it wouldn't matter. The Pro does not need to sell 100M.
Consoles with old ass memory systems and slow SSD modules are 500$ (S2), 600$ (PS5 DE) and 900$ (PS5 Pro).
You think this MLID BOM is worth anything? What about billions spend on R&D and packaging, transport, storage, retailers cut etc.?
PS6 will use (expensive) GDDR7 and more likely than not SSD speed will be higher than on PS5 - that means more expensive NAND chips. If you believe that they can offer that hardware for 500$ (or even 600$) you live in a world of make believe.
Unless Sony wants to repeat loses/per unit they had with PS3...
PS5 is at its end cycle and hardware profitability is priority. Sony said so themselves. They are no longer vying to increase adoption. 90 million + have already bought in to the system.
That's not the same with PS6. Sony will sell it at a loss or at bom price to increase adoption early on. The PS6 has to gain traction right off the bat.
I wouldn't give it credit if Kepler didn't agree with the estimate.
Anything spent additionally will be part of the loss that Sony will gain and recoup through game sells (that 30% cut) and peripherals. You know how this works right?
That's why the estimate is $300 for the RAM alone. That's why propose a cut down.
Probably, or they can keep it as is. It's already very fast.
No. Only memory is ridiculously priced. Pare that down and you can get PS6 to a critical mass price point.
lol. Sony was subsidizing almost $300 per unit during PS3 era. That's not what I'm proposing here mr. straw man.
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Nerfing the specs so much kinda defeats the point of having a next-gen system. I think the only reasonable cutbacks are keeping SSD at 1TB and (if they are really desperate) cutting down mem bus to 128-bit and VRAM to 24GB.
Bojji
Member
PS5 was already struggling to make money on every unit last year (and they increased prices in some territories), and that was before RAM apocalypse.
You are underestimating how expensive these consoles (even with 2020 tech) are to make now. 500$ MSRP for a new console is a pipe dream.
asdasdasdbb
Member
Cutting the bus to 128-bit but still doing clamshell wouldn't save enough to be worth it.
Mr.Phoenix
Member
Delaying for prices to come down would be the most stupid thing Sony, or anyone, can do. And they surely aren't that stupid, they have a front row seat into this current gen, and we have, for the first time in gaming history see prices go up over the course of a gen and not go down. And yet you somehow think that people in a conference room at Sony are considering how waiting for prices to go down on future and even more expensive tech is the right play?
MS was ahead of the curve on this since way back in 2019/2020 when they said that hardware price reductions wouldn't be as easy to achieve going forward anymore, and that was before the AI crisis and Trump.
It would be completely stupid for a company like Sony to gamble on the possibility that prices can come down between now and 2030 as opposed to secure the best deal they can now, eat the cost, and if prices do come down or stay the same, they are fine anyway. I mean.... what if they get more expensive? Can you, with a straight face, after seeing this current gen, say that it is not possible?
if fully adopting a cross-gen strategy, while Sony would still subsidize costs, they likely wouldn't need to do so too aggressively. They can comfortably release a PS6 and not plan on selling more than 10-12M units in its first year. And sell those to the people more likely to pay the most. And when prices start coming down, they can start dropping the price and increasing supply. There is no need to "gain traction right off the bat" when all your games on the PS6 will also be on the PS5.
You don't just cut RAM down to 20GB and call it a day. Those are not the kinda specs you want to fuck with when launching a new console that is supposed to be supported for the next 10-14 years. That kinda decision would hamstring your entire generation before it even starts.
And like I said above, they do not need to get PS6 to mass market point at launch, all they need to do is make sure there are PlayStation consoles in that price range, be that the PS5 or the PS6 handheld, they can (and should) launch PS6 at what would have otherwise been PlayStation Pro pricing, so $750- $800. All will be fine as long as they have a PS6H at around $499 and even better a PS5 at $399/$499 at that time.
Bojji
Member
PS6 having less raw memory BW than PS5 for sure would be something lol.
asdasdasdbb
Member
It'd be more at 32 gbps speed. At 28 gbps it'd be 448, same as PS5.
Bojji
Member
Ah, I don't know why I had false memory in my head that PS6 will have 256bit memory bus (it's rumored to be 160 bit).
You are right.
asdasdasdbb
Member
I still feel like they should have done that. With 4 GB chips, that would have given them 32 GB without clamshell. That would mean they would have to of planned for 2028 at the earliest though.
Ass of Can Whooping
Gold Member
If parts are too expensive just get them somewhere cheaper
GoldenEye98
posts news as their odd job
I think a lot of people are in for a rude awakening....
If you are a console maker your option is releasing a Series S type console or accepting a smaller (perhaps much smaller) install base.
If you are a console maker your option is releasing a Series S type console or accepting a smaller (perhaps much smaller) install base.