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Marathon approaching 15k CCU low (sponsored by coachmcguirk91 - still having a blast)
Danny22
Member
So Marathonn season 2 flops, destiny 2 update flops and then Sony will layoff this studio, make it a 300 person team and relegate them to an MP support studio.
It takes a while to accept that you made a terrible decision years ago by buying this company and butchering half of your first party studios to keep it running.
It takes a while to accept that you made a terrible decision years ago by buying this company and butchering half of your first party studios to keep it running.
falling into hell
Member
Yeah I would prefer more drama with developers having melt downs online, screaming around, blaming youtube creators for declining numbers.
Angry_Megalodon
Member
Conflict NZ
Member
While the Marathon situation has been interesting, I think it's much better for it to be over quickly like Concord/Highguard.
DarkShadowXI
Gold Member
If Destiny 3 came out a few years ago, yes.
My entire D2 crew and myself talked about whether we'd come back for D3 and we all said no.
falconhoof
Member
What a difference a week makes.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
4 pm completed hour.
Today 15.5k
Last Saturday 19.4k, peak was 20.7k
Tracking at -3.9k or -20% to last week. Estimated peak tonight is 20.7k less 20% = 16.6k
Today 15.5k
Last Saturday 19.4k, peak was 20.7k
Tracking at -3.9k or -20% to last week. Estimated peak tonight is 20.7k less 20% = 16.6k
Hollywood Hitman
Gold Member
Lmao, no destiny fan is passing on a D3 if it ever came to be. The hype, the excitement, the wonder of what could be in store if the day of destiny 3 landed upon us... no way in hell anyone who says they wouldn't play it is being honest with themselves.
FoxMcChief
Gold Member
Imagine paying billions for this and it isn't even exclusive.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Agreed. I'm sure there would be tons of Destiny fans playing. It tailed off a lot the past year, but going on Steam count alone anytime there's good content drop D2 would rocket to 300k. And add in all the console gamers too. Cant expect D2 to last forever. It launched to so long ago in 2017, Switch 1 just launched. And Xbox One X wasnt even out yet.
They just needed to make a good D3 game without all the weird shit you'd hear about that pissed off the fanbase and avoid splicing and locking out content. Just make a normal good sequel with no shenanigans and it'd be a hit. Even if it didnt do as well as D2, it's at least do way better than Marathon. That is hands down a guarantee everyone would agree on.
Problem is they tried to double dip with a two pronged sci fi shooter strategy hoping they'd get Destiny 2 fans going forever (infinite golden goose strategy) while attracting new gamers going the extraction loop. Problem is D2 tanked and Marathon never started strong to begin with and tanking so much, they will criss cross CCU soon. Marathon is only a couple thousand ahead of D2 peaks now. They might cross cross before S2 starts in a month.
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ChuckeRearmed
Member
I guess running Marathon into the ground was Bungie's destiny.
DarkShadowXI
Gold Member
Well…it's never being made and if it was, I'm not picking it up. I don't know what else to tell you lol
Idk, we better place some bets, I really think FAILgames has a chance to be Concord 2.0, the whole thing reeks of the "eat the rich" slogan from leftards so bad it's not even funny
manlisten
Member
So, a sprint or a marathon?
Timberwolf25
Member
If they kept the current model of yearly seasonal updates + battlepass + charging for dungeons/raids; I'd probably be out. It was already nuts that you were almost paying for a full price game just for the seasonal update and that should be enough to include all the stuff that comes out that year. I can understand the cosmetic mtx on top of that, but I'm not willing to pay for every piece of dlc when I believe it should be included for that seasonal price.
And even if the monetary expense wasn't the issue, the game just required way too much grinding to get the good/uber stuff. Nowadays there is waaaaaaay too much entertainment between streaming movies/TV, music, youtube, etc for me to lock myself into grinding Destiny for hours and hours daily
Plague Doctor
Member
It is tracking 4k lower Week over Week at this time.
Timberwolf25
Member
Hollywood Hitman
Gold Member
Well I think more or less the notion for me is if we wasn't exactly sure how it would be without a good couple months of play because it would most likely take some time to really see, I think we'd all be in.
I feel like for how I sputtered off d2, if d3 was similar I'd play since it was new but I wouldn't rack up no 7 to 8000 hours.
But I just believe if reports were that bungie is 100% in on destiny 3 and it was getting full support, I just feel most of us wouldn't be able to just ignore it when it dropped
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MayauMiao
Member
Agreed. I'm sure there would be tons of Destiny fans playing. It tailed off a lot the past year, but going on Steam count alone anytime there's good content drop D2 would rocket to 300k. And add in all the console gamers too. Cant expect D2 to last forever. It launched to so long ago in 2017, Switch 1 just launched. And Xbox One X wasnt even out yet.
They just needed to make a good D3 game without all the weird shit you'd hear about that pissed off the fanbase and avoid splicing and locking out content. Just make a normal good sequel with no shenanigans and it'd be a hit. Even if it didnt do as well as D2, it's at least do way better than Marathon. That is hands down a guarantee everyone would agree on.
Problem is they tried to double dip with a two pronged sci fi shooter strategy hoping they'd get Destiny 2 fans going forever (infinite golden goose strategy) while attracting new gamers going the extraction loop. Problem is D2 tanked and Marathon never started strong to begin with and tanking so much, they will criss cross CCU soon. Marathon is only a couple thousand ahead of D2 peaks now. They might cross cross before S2 starts in a month.
How strange the rise and fall of the numbers are almost the same as if bots are activated to handle both game.
TintoConCasera
I bought a sex doll, but I keep it inflated 100% of the time and use it like a regular wife
That thread title change
Unknown Soldier
Banned
falconhoof
Member
Saturday to Saturday UTC numbers are in.
In terms of player hours the game is down 22.44% in a week.
Code:
| Date UTC | Coverage h | Avg CCU | Peak CCU | Player-hours | DAU range | DAU midpoint |
| Sat 2026-04-25 | 24.0 | 15,329 | 20,875 | 367,886 | 122,629-294,309 | 183,943 |
| Sat 2026-05-02 | 24.0 | 11,889 | 16,946 | 285,341 | 95,114-228,273 | 142,671 |
|In terms of player hours the game is down 22.44% in a week.
They could've had Bungie make a good single-player FPS in the Destiny universe. They had the gameplay, art design, story, etc. all there. They just needed to put it together. Instead, they spend $200 million on a new entry in a relatively niche genre that requires constant upkeep, so the initial outlay is not the end of the costs involved.
Hollywood Hitman
Gold Member
Pretty wild that the 1994 game calls to me more than 2026 marathon
MayauMiao
Member
FIREKNIGHT2029
Member
Marathon is dead and Fairgame$ is the next flop for Sony after this. I can't believe Sony spent billions of dollars on Bungie for this and Destiny 2, they got scammed. Sony's entire GAAS initiative has been one giant mega flop for them, what a bunch of idiots.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
11 pm completed hour CCU. Peak reached at 16.5k. Trending was right. Off by just 100 CCU
All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 16.5k is -71.8k or -81%
Today vs yesterday: 16.5k vs 17.1k (-0.6k or -4%)
Yesterday's low 5.9k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 5.7k
Sat vs Sat: 16.5k vs 20.7k (-4.2k or -20%). Back to old historic changes of -20%
Alternate method to estimate peaks and valleys (ballpark ratios)
On normal weekdays, 3.3:1. For example, a peak 20k will have a low of 6k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1
Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users 128
Global Top Sellers 178
Weekly Top Sellers 74 ending Apr 28 (was 81 last week)
Top Rated Games 6,007 (83.91%)
All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 16.5k is -71.8k or -81%
Today vs yesterday: 16.5k vs 17.1k (-0.6k or -4%)
Yesterday's low 5.9k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 5.7k
Sat vs Sat: 16.5k vs 20.7k (-4.2k or -20%). Back to old historic changes of -20%
Alternate method to estimate peaks and valleys (ballpark ratios)
On normal weekdays, 3.3:1. For example, a peak 20k will have a low of 6k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1
Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users 128
Global Top Sellers 178
Weekly Top Sellers 74 ending Apr 28 (was 81 last week)
Top Rated Games 6,007 (83.91%)
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Plague Doctor
Member
That might be it for 20k+ CCU until season 2. It will all be sub 20k from now on.
And I don't think the wipe and a night map is going to help at all then.
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Yeah, the fun with Concord was special. Not even suicide squad or DA veilguard come close. Marathon is fun to watch because of the slow decline, but nothing beats an bombastic experience like that.
Nydius
Member
The remaining Destiny fans are the ones still playing. So sure, they'd buy D3. The issue is they torched their fanbase with their poor management of the game like the content vaulting and the ever-increasing nickel-and-diming of new content.
I used to be a Destiny fan and played it consistently from D1 beta to D2 Beyond Light. But the decisions Bungie made have turned me off on Destiny entirely and I have no trust in Bungie to do the right thing anymore.
ByWatterson
Member
It's fairly obvious that Bungie should be developing a new (non-hero) FPS franchise with a single-player campaign and an arena suite.
Like....it's the one kind of FPS that isn't totally saturating the market right now.
Like....it's the one kind of FPS that isn't totally saturating the market right now.
Hollywood Hitman
Gold Member
I said it in this thread, I have 7 to 8,000 hours of Destiny if anyone knows how they been burned by bungie it's me... Because I couldn't take it anymore and quit in May of 23.
But that aside I'm not gonna try to kid myself if bungie said we are FULL ON deck for D3 and it came out, I'm not goin to try and act like I don't care because the moment it was releasing the hype would be unreal... Not a chance id not try to relive that experience.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
No doubt. Hasnt hit 20k since last Saturday. Sunday's trend down vs Sat, and once Monday rolls around there's another -10% drop. Monday will probably be about 14k.
You're actually too kind! Never mind 20k, next week peaks will be lucky to hit 15-16k. Trending shows whatever Mon peaks are, the best weekly peaks lately will add around +1000 CCU when Thurs cryo or Friday come about. That's it.
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Kronark
Member
1) 650k in sales would be a failure for a game reported to cost north of 200-250 million from a studio Sony bought for 3.6 billion.
(650,000 x $40) x 0.8 = $20,800,000 revenue (The 0.8 assumes a 20% steam cut).
Not sure how you get "strong" from those numbers, this is not an indie game.
2) Again at a scale of 200-250 million dollars, 5-15k is a pathetic CCU base. If Bungie keeps 30 devs on for updates that'll cost minimum about ~4.5 million a year in labor. From what I've seen DAU counts seem like 6-7x the CCU peak and it's been reported steam is 70% of the player base.
150,000 average dev salary x 30 = 4.5 million dollars.
(15,000 steam CCU / 0.7) * 1 = ~21,428 CCU across all platforms.
21,428 * 7 = ~149,996 DAU estimated across all platforms.
4,500,000 / 150,000 = $30 per user annual revenue target to keep minimum development going ( $37.5 in revenue per user when factoring in 20% platform cut for steam, $42.85 for each user when factoring in a 30% platform cut for xbox. ).
So Bungie needs to sell every single user an average of about ~$40 of DLC annually to even come close to breaking even. Those 30 devs would need to both update the core game (Maps, weapons, etc) and make DLC (Skins, etc) to break even. This is napkin math that is highly favoured toward Bungie, the real cost is likely much higher to staff 30 devs with tools, workspace, equipment, servers, etc. Let's not forget the game isn't stable yet either, it's still bleeding about 15-20% of it's user pool weekly. A smaller studio might be able to swing this player pool, but for Bungie this is a nightmare, their burn rate is incredibly high.
3) Console sales were about 30% of total sales. This game flopped incredibly hard on consoles.
4) Marathon sold 1.2 million at launch. Total sales are probably around 2 million or so at this point. At $40 a pop that would be 80 million at best, but then counting the steam and xbox cuts you're looking at maybe ~66,400,000.
Steam (70% of players, 80% of revenue) - (80,000,000 x 0.7) x 0.8 = $44,800,000
PS5 (20% of players, 100% of revenue) - (80,000,000 x 0.2) = $16,000,000
Xbox (10% of players, 70% of revenue) - (80,000,000 x 0.1) x 0.7 = $5,600,000
Overall $66,400,000
That's against a $200-250 million investment up front... This game made maybe 25-33% of it's money back. Sony has to decide if there's a profitable future or decide if they should just cut their losses now. Destiny has also under performed massivlely and Bungie is an extremely expensive studio with no evidence of recent success.
5) User reviews are dropping as people walk away. It went from like 87% or so at launch to 80% recent now on steam. Also it's 2 months after launch, the game has a reputation now. Reviews don't matter that much at this point. If all those postive reviews mattered wouldn't the game have done better than this?
6) Time will tell but I disagree Marathon is like other games. It's self destructive like Trials was in Destiny. The top players eat the bottom players and the bottom players will walk away if they're cut out of reward structure. How are you supposed to engage with an extraction shooter and gear up if you're getting blown out nearly every game?
Source for 70% steam player base, 1.2 million launch sales, and 200-250 million dev cost: https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2026/04/09/checking-in-on-marathon-a-month-after-launch/
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Spot on.
If Marathon crashed to zero fast like Concord or Highguard, the fun in forums and social media would already fizzle out by now.
But give Sony and Bungie credit for keeping the fun going. The game sales and CCU keep trending down yet they keep supporting it with no sign of shut down. Heck Season 2 is around the corner so no chance they shut it down with peak ~15k CCU even though it's a consistent slow bleed. They'll slowly ride it down the toilet all year.
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Conflict NZ
Member
That analytics post that said Marathon had "2.2 million players" really threw a bomb into discourse around this game. I see people quote it as a sales figure everywhere now.
Also the people that claim it has "stabilised" or has "found an audience" really aren't putting any critical thought into this. The game is still dropping 15-25% week on week, how is that in any way stabilising.?
Also the people that claim it has "stabilised" or has "found an audience" really aren't putting any critical thought into this. The game is still dropping 15-25% week on week, how is that in any way stabilising.?
Fess
Member
Kids and young teenagers is a huge demographic and they aren't going to play Fortnite and Roblox forever, as they grow older they'll move into something else. What that something is nobody knows, but that's what all these devs are trying to find out. I doubt that Marathon is it, could just as well be Gravity Dash on mobile or nothing at all.
But I agree that devs can't forget about us oldies. It should be the most stable customer base tbh. Just go for something that turn us nostalgic, make it play great, don't add anything aimed at a modern audience = millions copies sold.
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rm082e
Gold Member
Their management team was acting irresponsible. It's not that Fortnite couldn't be sustainable, it's just they were wasting a lot of money on bad decisions like that whole Apple lawsuit.
Dr.Morris79
Gold Member
SnapShot
Member
Call me crazy but this doesn't look that different from NuMarathon, the terminals, the soundtrack, the lore... it's like they've been making the same base shooter since 1994, besides the new playable characters looking like shampoo bottles
Hollywood Hitman
Gold Member
I'm not getting anything really in this that would indicate what we see today imo
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Only 2 - 3 more weeks of...
...then the phoenix ascends.
...then the phoenix ascends.
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
Only 2 - 3 more weeks of...
...then the phoenix ascends.
Sorry man, just giving you shit
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
mdkirby
Gold Member
That's the problem with these addictive gaas forever games. In many cases they don't foster a "gamer", ie a future customer of the gaming industry who will mature as a "gamer". They are "Fortnite players"….who don't really play anything else. As people mature they get jobs, wives, yearn for things Fortnite doesn't offer (but aren't gamers) they are more likely to just not play anything than the prior maturity path into things like resident evil or last of us etc.
It's like my female colleagues, they play the sims. Or maybe candy crush. Sure you can call them gamers, on paper, but they aren't.
What these games have done is capture explosive short term profits for singular games (and they can keep chasing newer kids), but they aren't fostering future customers for "gaming" in general. They are effectively sacrificing those future customers.
Gamespass is similar, but for different reasons. They are training those younger players who actually are gamers to not value games, and expect them to be "free" (many would have just been getting a yearly sub for Xmas). This again is sacrificing future customers.
We're now a decade into this, and we're starting to see the consequences, and it is one (of several other often talked about) contributing factors to the current collapse of western gaming.
neocycle
Member
This doesn't make sense. We can clearly see the players vanishing. Even when they put it on ps+, people will leave it fairly quickly. Because it sucks.
www.videogameschronicle.com
Bungie claims it has a Marathon story plan stretching ‘years’ into the future | VGC
But Marathon’s future narrative direction will partly be influenced by players…
www.videogameschronicle.com
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