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Marathon approaching 15k CCU low (sponsored by coachmcguirk91 - still having a blast)

mckmas8808 said:
I'm surprised these words really make you upset. Like you say, "Incel is just a moron's replacement for virgin." First of all that's not actually true. But even if it was, why does that replacement word have to come from a moron? And I'm not here to defend or refute that some of those companies adopted those so-called leftist practices. That's obvious. They 100% did so. It's equally as obvious that grifters, incels, and gooners exist and have ruin many culture conversations within the gaming community.

Some of us even believe they've made the gaming culture worse. This isn't some crazy, out of left field type thinking. Many of us have seen the decline of video game conversations in general over the last 5-6 years. You can even see it on GAF.
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Because people like you (don't pretend you aren't a progressive or leftist. Just own it and stop being a coward about it) come in here mindless regurgitating them like infants learning their first words to insult people like me.

First it was crap like Nazi, bigot, misogynist, and loser when the Queen Cunt Anita Sarkeesian first started spewing her feminist diarrhea in 2013-2014. Pathetic, but at least I understand what those words mean because they actually exist. Then it shifted from using real words to made up nonsense like incel, gooner, chud, and the like. You and your kind have been doing it for over a decade now since Gamergate 1 and have doubled, tripled, and quadrupled down on your bullshit. And, yes, using incel makes you a moron. Use actual English, not Internet gibberish.

As for your second point, it's funny you mention how people like me or really anyone who doesn't suck off AAA Western devs are """grifters""". Strange how I only see people like you throwing it at right leaning/non progressive people. The best part is is that I can give plenty of examples of prominent "progressives" actually being exposed as charlatans, predators, liars, and being overall unhinged degenerates. Destiny, Vaush, Hasan Piker, and god knows how many male feminists have been exposed for being sex pests both in and out of the gaming world. Surely you go after those guys with the same fervor and hurl insults at them. Right? Right??

Also, can also you not see your contradictions? How are you saying that we on Gaf are the ones "ruining gaming communities" when this is one of the few gaming spaces not infested with progressive parasites? Every other gaming site is full of feminists, LGTBWHATEVER defenders, male allies (aka simpering lapdogs for the aforementioned feminists), and corporate ass suckers. If you want to be a part of that, then you're more than welcome to go to Bluesky, Reddit, Resetera, and just about 10 other sites where you don't have to be around the big fat, stupid, meanie heads on NeoGaf.

Anyways, I fucking love how this discussion is on a Marathon CCU thread lol. This is why I love Gaf.
74sSEFQNviJGoS3i.gif
 
So how low is this going to get before S2 releases? And realistically how much recovery can it gain from a night version of a map?
 
calico said:
So how low is this going to get before S2 releases? And realistically how much recovery can it gain from a night version of a map?
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Realistically only proper singleplayer/coop campaing and much better looking characters would be able to put some life into that failed game, but considering how slow bungie is working and how lil they are willing to provide, players will get big "screw u" sign and thats about it, even if new season experiences and lets be generous here- 50k ccu peak, after week or two it will go back to under 20k anyways :messenger_smiling_hearts:
 
calico said:
So how low is this going to get before S2 releases? And realistically how much recovery can it gain from a night version of a map?
Click to expand...
It's a bit of a frog in hot water situation where we have analyzed it so closely I don't think everyone realizes how dire the situation has become.

Seems more like a long digout is needed, I'm not sure 1 season is going to turn it around. If season 2 flops we are deep in the shit. Every other game coming out is working against them. Time is working against them.
 
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DTw2nrJpk1u7lJa6.png


The game has basically fallen into late stage progression and skipped out on the big launch win where masses of cash are made. If things like The Division 2 and Tarkov can stay profitable with the right team then maybe Marathon can too. But it really feels like this wasn't the expected place for Bungie to have two products seemingly on long term life era. It sure as shit isn't a game that can sustain 400+ staffers. Plus we don't have long term data on Marathon like we do on others so it's a gamble to say if this is the end stage for it. The floor could get lower.
 
Timberwolf25 said:
Dude jumped ship when his viewers did...lol
It's how he makes a living, so I get it, but still funny af!
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Oh yeah, he's out there chasing every streamer dollar he can find. Most of them are. Unfortunately muh 'sponsored streams' are such a huge part of their revenue that you can't expect particularly genuine takes from any of them.
 
falconhoof said:
DTw2nrJpk1u7lJa6.png


The game has basically fallen into late stage progression and skipped out on the big launch win where masses of cash are made. If things like The Division 2 and Tarkov can stay profitable with the right team then maybe Marathon can too. But it really feels like this wasn't the expected place for Bungie to have two products seemingly on long term life era. It sure as shit isn't a game that can sustain 400+ staffers. Plus we don't have long term data on Marathon like we do on others so it's a gamble to say if this is the end stage for it. The floor could get lower.
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Keep in mind that according to Wikipedia and Google, Div2 sold 10 million copies by 2020 and had over 20 million player lifetime. It launched in 2019, but not until 2023 on Steam. It's on GP and PS+, too. This game easily has higher dau and ccu and was a smash hit in comparison, and offers a crazy amount of content. Extraction is just a single mode in Div2.
 
CrustyBritches said:
Keep in mind that according to Wikipedia and Google, Div2 sold 10 million copies by 2020 and had over 20 million player lifetime. It launched in 2019, but not until 2023 on Steam. It's on GP and PS+, too. This game easily has higher dau and ccu and was a smash hit in comparison, and offers a crazy amount of content. Extraction is just a single mode in Div2.
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Yup. D2 is likely pulling in a bigger DAU given its console footprint compared to Marathon.
 
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KanKamAndNob said:
Because people like you (don't pretend you aren't a progressive or leftist. Just own it and stop being a coward about it) come in here mindless regurgitating them like infants learning their first words to insult people like me.

First it was crap like Nazi, bigot, misogynist, and loser when the Queen Cunt Anita Sarkeesian first started spewing her feminist diarrhea in 2013-2014. Pathetic, but at least I understand what those words mean because they actually exist. Then it shifted from using real words to made up nonsense like incel, gooner, chud, and the like. You and your kind have been doing it for over a decade now since Gamergate 1 and have doubled, tripled, and quadrupled down on your bullshit. And, yes, using incel makes you a moron. Use actual English, not Internet gibberish.

As for your second point, it's funny you mention how people like me or really anyone who doesn't suck off AAA Western devs are """grifters""". Strange how I only see people like you throwing it at right leaning/non progressive people. The best part is is that I can give plenty of examples of prominent "progressives" actually being exposed as charlatans, predators, liars, and being overall unhinged degenerates. Destiny, Vaush, Hasan Piker, and god knows how many male feminists have been exposed for being sex pests both in and out of the gaming world. Surely you go after those guys with the same fervor and hurl insults at them. Right? Right??

Also, can also you not see your contradictions? How are you saying that we on Gaf are the ones "ruining gaming communities" when this is one of the few gaming spaces not infested with progressive parasites? Every other gaming site is full of feminists, LGTBWHATEVER defenders, male allies (aka simpering lapdogs for the aforementioned feminists), and corporate ass suckers. If you want to be a part of that, then you're more than welcome to go to Bluesky, Reddit, Resetera, and just about 10 other sites where you don't have to be around the big fat, stupid, meanie heads on NeoGaf.

Anyways, I fucking love how this discussion is on a Marathon CCU thread lol. This is why I love Gaf.
74sSEFQNviJGoS3i.gif
Click to expand...

And this is the problem with individuals like you. The bolded makes you look insane. It's as if someone can't have certain views about cultural things, while also acknowledging that many on the left went too far with it. It's easy to admit, because it's pretty obvious. Especially over time. Yet you can't seem to do the same.

And I NEVER claimed GAF are ruining gaming communities. I've been a member year for 20 YEARS youngin! You sound like a hit dog hollering.
 
5 pm completed hour quick check. Still tracking around -15% all day so far.

Today 13k. Last Monday same time 15.4k. -15%.

Last Monday peak 19.4k less 15% = estimated peak tonight 16.5k.
 
StreetsofBeige said:
5 pm completed hour quick check. Still tracking around -15% all day so far.

Today 13k. Last Monday same time 15.4k. -15%.

Last Monday peak 19.4k less 15% = estimated peak tonight 16.5k.
Click to expand...

Yikes. Also, looks like ARCs "biggest update yet" is tomorrow.

I also wouldn't be surprised at *all* if they also put their game on sale right alongside it for $10 off.

Either way, that update will cause another drop in players of Marathon by at least a few % points.
 
Cmon people! Lets stop the inner fighting. Here we unite in watching this shitshow of a game and wait for its inevitable and deserved doom ! In fact by now theres much less animosity here than the OT, and its the first safe space OT ever on gaf (I think?) ! We have only to endure our men who lives in boxes from time to time but he is harmless like that retarded cousin at the Christmas party who yeah says ludicrous incoherent things but in the end he is family too!
 
KanKamAndNob said:
Because people like you (don't pretend you aren't a progressive or leftist. Just own it and stop being a coward about it) come in here mindless regurgitating them like infants learning their first words to insult people like me.

First it was crap like Nazi, bigot, misogynist, and loser when the Queen Cunt Anita Sarkeesian first started spewing her feminist diarrhea in 2013-2014. Pathetic, but at least I understand what those words mean because they actually exist. Then it shifted from using real words to made up nonsense like incel, gooner, chud, and the like. You and your kind have been doing it for over a decade now since Gamergate 1 and have doubled, tripled, and quadrupled down on your bullshit. And, yes, using incel makes you a moron. Use actual English, not Internet gibberish.

As for your second point, it's funny you mention how people like me or really anyone who doesn't suck off AAA Western devs are """grifters""". Strange how I only see people like you throwing it at right leaning/non progressive people. The best part is is that I can give plenty of examples of prominent "progressives" actually being exposed as charlatans, predators, liars, and being overall unhinged degenerates. Destiny, Vaush, Hasan Piker, and god knows how many male feminists have been exposed for being sex pests both in and out of the gaming world. Surely you go after those guys with the same fervor and hurl insults at them. Right? Right??

Also, can also you not see your contradictions? How are you saying that we on Gaf are the ones "ruining gaming communities" when this is one of the few gaming spaces not infested with progressive parasites? Every other gaming site is full of feminists, LGTBWHATEVER defenders, male allies (aka simpering lapdogs for the aforementioned feminists), and corporate ass suckers. If you want to be a part of that, then you're more than welcome to go to Bluesky, Reddit, Resetera, and just about 10 other sites where you don't have to be around the big fat, stupid, meanie heads on NeoGaf.

Anyways, I fucking love how this discussion is on a Marathon CCU thread lol. This is why I love Gaf.
74sSEFQNviJGoS3i.gif
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Fuckin based.
 
9 pm completed hour CCU. Peak reached at 18.4k and it's trending down now. Tied with Weds as lowest peak ever. Assuming about -10% tomorrow, peak should be somewhere 16.5-17k
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Last Monday peak 19.4k less 14.5% = estimated peak 16.6k
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Hey hey! The trends ended exactly as predicted.

9 pm completed hour CCU. Peak reached just after 10 pm at 16.6k as it's trending down now. A new low and first time -80%+ since launch. Also, almost under 84% Steam review rating. It trends down every day a fraction of a % since launch where it peaked at 87% or so

All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 16.6k is -71.7k or -81%

Today vs yesterday: 16.6k vs 18.4k (-1.8k or -10%)

Yesterday's low 4.9k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 4.4k. But Sun nights drop harder than usual, so tonight might hold around 4.5 - 4.9k despite lower peak CCU

Mon vs Mon: 16.6k vs 19.4k (-2.8k or -14%). A bit better than historic -20%

Alternate method to estimate peaks and valleys (ballpark ratios)
On normal weekdays, 3.3:1. For example, a peak 20k will have a low of 6k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1

Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users 112
Global Top Sellers 73 (-20% sale boost this week)
Weekly Top Sellers 81 ending Apr 21 (was 67 last week)
Top Rated Games 5,880 (84.07%)
 
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Using a Monday week over week attrition rate of -15% (which the game has been doing for weeks), here's some Monday peak estimates until Season 2 comes in June. And that assumes S2 starts right away in June.

Today. 16.6k
May 4. 14.1k
May 11. 12.0k
May 18. 10.2k
May 25 8.7k
June 1 7.4k

If you assume the rate of decline reduces to -10%, it's this:

Today. 16.6k
May 4. 14.9k
May 11. 13.4k
May 18. 12.1k
May 25 10.9k
June 1 9.8k
 
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StreetsofBeige said:
Using a Monday week over week attrition rate of -15% (which the game has been doing for weeks), here's some Monday peak estimates until Season 2 comes in June. And that assumes S2 starts right away in June.

Today. 16.6k
May 4. 14.1k
May 11. 12.0k
May 18. 10.2k
May 25 8.7k
June 1 7.4k

If you assume the rate of decline reduces to -10%, it's this:

Today. 16.6k
May 4. 14.9k
May 11. 13.4k
May 18. 12.1k
May 25 10.9k
June 1 9.8k
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10k is where they have to go PS+/GP and strip the extraction mechanics out or make a full blown coop pve mode.
 
7k players at 3AM ET and still probably a few hours before the daily low occurs.

I imagine playing anytime other than U.S. peak times during the week is now becoming a pain in the ass.
 
OuterLimits said:
7k players at 3AM ET and still probably a few hours before the daily low occurs.

I imagine playing anytime other than U.S. peak times during the week is now becoming a pain in the ass.
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Yup still tracking over 500 below the same time yesterday, could be quite a low tonight even before maintenance.

For reference the Marathon lows are 5-11PM NZ Time and 3-9PM Australian time. Marathon is essentially unplayable here at what should be peak gaming hours.
 
Zacfoldor said:
The fact that it is still bleeding cannot mathematically be considered a coincidence any longer and instead is evidence of a non-virtuous cycle, aka viscious cycle, aka neagivtive feedback loop. I posted a pdf from activision describing this exact situation way earlier in the thread(which was their justification for sbmm, too late to do that for marathon).

This vicious cycle is aided by cheaters and creates a negative feedback loop that causes players to abandon the game. As the worst players abandon the game the next skill level moves into the batters box and it keeps going. I don't agree with reddit. I think the floor is 5k not 10k.

The community has not helped, reinforcing the idea of players leaving if they are having a bad time. Saying "not all games are for everyone and that's okay, you should quit" ect did not help those who were on the fence decide to stick it out.

Marathon is type 2 fun which is rather niche for gaming anyway: Type 2 fun refers to activities that are miserable, stressful, or painful while happening, but become enjoyable, rewarding, and memorable in retrospect. That is gonna limit session length as well. I bet session length nosedived in this game as it became harder due to viscous cycle. They need a 2.0 already, aka they launched with the wrong game.
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Pretty ironic that an actual marathon would likely be considered "type2 fun" 🤣
 
CrustyBritches said:
10k is where they have to go PS+/GP and strip the extraction mechanics out or make a full blown coop pve mode.
Click to expand...
It took seven years to make this crap.. I dont think they can overhaul the whole game system in just a few months... They could cancel the game and relaunch one or two years from now with new game modes and pve changes, but I highly doubt sony would continue to invest in this shit.

At this point Sony is just burning money with this company, for what people talk about current D2 and what happened to Marathon it seems pretty obvious that the real talent is gone and its not the same company that made Halo, D1 and even D2 before its downfall, Concord its the biggest game failure of all time and pretty soon Bungie will become the biggest Studio acquisition failure of all time (probably ? Someone can correct me if theres a bigger one, bigger than 3.6 billion and shutdown after one game released.)

Honestly.. after all this if sony continues to throw money at them for several more years expecting a success in Destiny 3 they are even dumber than I thought.
 
If there's anything that's going to speed up this game's death it's their dumb update schedule, they could update the game whenever they need to but NOOO it HAS to be every Tuesday for some reason.
 
Choosing to continue a weekly maintenence schedule on the same day that ARC is launching their biggest update(and probably putting the game on sale imo) is certainly a...choice.
 
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