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Marathon approaching 15k CCU low (sponsored by coachmcguirk91 - still having a blast)

Think of gaas as a closed system.

At launch the system is at maximum order. For marathon we have launched in a high energy highly organized state.

In this game entropy manifests as boredom, attrition, and frustration....and eventually technical debt as you run into queueing issues.

To combat this inevitable decay, energy has to be pumped in. The only way to affect entropy is to pump in energy. Work hours. Money.

So really any gaas is like this. The amount of energy needed to reduce entropy is based on how efficient the game theory is at retaining players. Thus it's important how efficient the company is at turning their resources into the type of energy the game needs and even more important is how much energy the game needs overall.

They are pumping in massive amounts of energy, hundreds of developers and resources diverted from D2 to keep entropy from overtaking Marathon in the new few months.

Thus, it's easy to see what they are doing behind the scenes now. There is only one possible option. They need to make the game theory more efficient at retaining players so they can dump less energy into the game and have the same effect on the entropy.

That means a mechanical overhaul or new modes that will appeal to a wider audience and keep existing players engaged for longer. Other games have done this.

...but that's the rub. Most other games in this state just die. Its WAY harder to turn around than to launch in an efficient state. Now they have the unenviable job of remaking the game, potentially alienating the existing players, and appealing to new ones.

They need a system they can dump work in and see immediate affect on the community. So they are searching for that efficiency now in what gameplay options they could add.

The problem is that once a system begins to succumb to entropy, turning it around is hard as fuck. Not the norm. Odds are it is unlikely to happen for Marathon. It will require massive reinvestment and a very high joule level of energy too because the problem isn't just they need to pump in energy. It's that the energy they are pumping in doesn't have much affect. So they have to add a LOT of it for a little return. So they need to make the game more efficient AND pump more resources into it to turn it around. If they had launched in an efficient state there would be no need for this. Launching in an inefficient state where adding tons of work into the game doesn't really reduce entropy, could be considered questionable game design.

One thing Bungie should do is lower their quality standard. This would allow them to create maps quicker. This would allow them access to AI toolkits and new technology that would create good enough content as long as its novel. That's what this genre needs. Freshness. Glacial developer paces are no longer acceptable in the gaas space.
 
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Think of gaas as a closed system.

At launch the system is at maximum order. For marathon we have launched in a high energy highly organized state.

In this game entropy manifests as boredom, attrition, and frustration....and eventually technical debt as you run into queueing issues.

To combat this inevitable decay, energy has to be pumped in. The only way to affect entropy is to pump in energy. Work hours. Money.

So really any gaas is like this. The amount of energy needed to reduce entropy is based on how efficient the game theory is at retaining players. Thus it's important how efficient the company is at turning their resources into the type of energy the game needs and even more important is how much energy the game needs overall.

They are pumping in massive amounts of energy, hundreds of developers and resources diverted from D2 to keep entropy from overtaking Marathon in the new few months.

Thus, it's easy to see what they are doing behind the scenes now. There is only one possible option. They need to make the game theory more efficient at retaining players so they can dump less energy into the game and have the same effect on the entropy.

That means a mechanical overhaul or new modes that will appeal to a wider audience and keep existing players engaged for longer. Other games have done this.

...but that's the rub. Most other games in this state just die. Its WAY harder to turn around than to launch in an efficient state. Now they have the unenviable job of remaking the game, potentially alienating the existing players, and appealing to new ones.

They need a system they can dump work in and see immediate affect on the community. So they are searching for that efficiency now in what gameplay options they could add.

The problem is that once a system begins to succumb to entropy, turning it around is hard as fuck. Not the norm. Odds are it is unlikely to happen for Marathon. It will require massive reinvestment and a very high joule level of energy too because the problem isn't just they need to pump in energy. It's that the energy they are pumping in doesn't have much affect. So they have to add a LOT of it for a little return. So they need to make the game more efficient AND pump more resources into it to turn it around. If they had launched in an efficient state there would be no need for this. Launching in an inefficient state where adding tons of work into the game doesn't really reduce entropy, could be considered questionable game design.

One thing Bungie should do is lower their quality standard. This would allow them to create maps quicker. This would allow them access to AI toolkits and new technology that would create good enough content as long as its novel. That's what this genre needs. Freshness. Glacial developer paces are no longer acceptable in the gaas space.
kV4lXr7ifWZcvJoJ.png


GaaS omegasimp
+
AI omegasimp
=

Probably a bad take
 
11 completed hour check. Down a few % vs yesterday or Monday. Tues was server down day.

But it is cryo day and all 5 cryo days have been a positive vs day before.

Yesterday's peak was 18.4k. so maybe it ends today at 19k. That would be +3% which is doable.
 
I think this weekend gonna be last time game breaks 20k durning peak US time, come may it will always sit below that tiny number no matter what :p
 
If S1 lost 20% of its players base each week, does S2 lose 14% each week?
Apples and oranges unless S2 first recaptures the mix of players S1 had. If it's only the hardest of hardcore fans left, these should naturally be easier to retain than the mix of interest levels S1 had.
 
I think this weekend gonna be last time game breaks 20k durning peak US time, come may it will always sit below that tiny number no matter what :p
Given trending it's actually doubtful. Best bet to retain a daily peak at 20k is tomorrow.

Today goes up a bit due to cryo and then a usual Friday spike. Combined it could hit 20k if they collectively total about +9%. But past weekend days have been solid down days for sat and sun for weeks.
 
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Apples and oranges unless S2 first recaptures the mix of players S1 had. If it's only the hardest of hardcore fans left, these should naturally be easier to retain than the mix of interest levels S1 had.
Yeah, there will be a number of KPIs to measure and compare. Again, I'm not looking for S2 to "save Marathon" (I doubt Sony is either) but I am looking for improvements.

What will the S2 peak look like and how will it's retention drop look compared to S1.

Rome wasn't built in a day.
 
I don't say things like this very often, so these words carry a lot of weight...

Marathon is the best PlayStation Studios game ever made, bar none.
I am nothing if not sincere. There's honestly nothing that comes close. Maybe Helldivers 2?
I like Marathon a lot, and I fell off hard these past couple of weeks. I quoted both of these statements because they are, in fact, factually wrong. No one in the world besides you would ever make these claims.
 
I like Marathon a lot, and I fell off hard these past couple of weeks. I quoted both of these statements because they are, in fact, factually wrong. No one in the world besides you would ever make these claims.
I look at the Demons Souls, the God of Wars, the Spider Man's, the Uncharteds. I even look at the Gran Turismos, the Jak and Dexter's, and the WipeOuts, and I come away with one unwavering belief...

Marathon is better than all of them.

I am Cus D'emato.

Marathon is a 17 year old Mike Tyson. 128 pages from its haters places it in its own pantheon. Greatness is never embraced by all.
 
I look at the Demons Souls, the God of Wars, the Spider Man's, the Uncharteds. I even look at the Gran Turismos, the Jak and Dexter's, and the WipeOuts, and I come away with one unwavering belief...

Marathon is better than all of them.

I am Cus D'emato.

Marathon is a 17 year old Mike Tyson. 128 pages from its haters places it in its own pantheon. Greatness is never embraced by all.
All of those are better than Marathon. SOCOM and SOCOM 2, better than Marathon. Motorstorm Series is better than Marathon. Ratchet and Clank, Astrobot, etc. all better than Marathon. Know why? All of them are "more fun" than Marathon. :messenger_sunglasses:
 
All of those are better than Marathon. SOCOM and SOCOM 2, better than Marathon. Motorstorm Series is better than Marathon. Ratchet and Clank, Astrobot, etc. all better than Marathon. Know why? All of them are "more fun" than Marathon. :messenger_sunglasses:
None of those games created the "moral panic" like you see here with Marathon. No game has brought out the old ladies like this one has.

Really, it needs to be compared to Led Zeppelin, The Simpsons and Calvanism more than anything PlayStation Studios has done in the past.
 
None of those games created the "moral panic" like you see here with Marathon. No game has brought out the old ladies like this one has.

The only reason people care to watch Marathon is because of the companies history in creating Halo and Destiny. No one is here because there's some special game design source being witnessed. It's an extraction shooter, a genre chaser at best putting a slight twist on things, but really it's enough of a formula product that even you make comparisons to Tarkov and Hunt.

I remember being at DICE '23 in Vegas and I heard more than once that people were about to lose their mind if they heard another fucking extraction shooter pitch. There was a sort of freshness about the idea, the gear fear, the high stakes play, it was enough to point at and say "Like that but we own it", just as they did with Battle Royale. Chasers. Marathon is a chaser. We're not here to see people start proposing Marathon-likes. We did see people wanting to make Halo-likes and Destiny-likes.
 
Atari's E.T. also created this reaction in 1982. Is marathon like E.T.?
You show me the 128 page NeoGAF thread where the villagers raised their pitchforks and dildos and attempted to suppress the unconquerable (ET).

You can't.

You people have unwittingly created a monument that reveals Marathons splendor.
 
You show me the 128 page NeoGAF thread where the villagers raised their pitchforks and dildos and attempted to suppress the unconquerable (ET).
I can show you a 69 (nice) page concord thread


Does that mean Marathon is twice as successful as Concord?
 
You show me the 128 page NeoGAF thread where the villagers raised their pitchforks and dildos and attempted to suppress the unconquerable (ET).

You can't.

You people have unwittingly created a monument that reveals Marathons splendor.
It's ok man. We all know youre just trolling to put on a brave face. But just because some of us are tracking its doom doesnt mean you cant enjoy playing the game like the gaffers in the OT.

You actually spend more time here than in the Marathon OT thread which is odd.
 
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It's early but 1 pm completed hour (cryo launch hour) is +6% vs yesterday. And down -20% vs same time for last week's cryo hour.

That +6% isnt good because the game at cryo hour starts high and then tails off by end of day. That +6% might even become a negative by the time US sets the final peak. We'll have to wait. But around 4-5 pm when Euro peak is set will be a good indicator how US will trend.

US CCU peak will always be the highest number (aside from occasional weekends when Euro time will be peak), and in terms of % US is usually the best one as it'll improve a bit vs whatever happened during peak Asia/Euro peaks.
 
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It's early but 1 pm completed hour (cryo launch hour) is +6% vs yesterday. And down -20% vs same time for last week's cryo hour.

That +6% isnt good because the game at cryo hour starts high and then tails off by end of day. That +6% might even become a negative by the time US sets the final peak. We'll have to wait. But around 4-5 pm when Euro peak is set will be a good indicator how US will trend.

US CCU peak will always be the highest number (aside from occasional weekends when Euro time will be peak), and in terms of % US is usually the best one as it'll improve a bit vs whatever happened during peak Asia/Euro peaks.
It's barely up on Monday and Tuesday, if things don't improve today it could be Marathon's fourth worst day ever (so far).
 
4 pm completed hour. Wow. +10% vs yesterday. 15.7k vs 14.3k.

Yesterday's peak 18.4k. If this holds up, it might break 20k! I dont think it will, but the trend today is going well. Maybe cryo day lands at 19.5k which still holds a +6% like earlier today.
 
At the moment I am waiting 10 minutes for games and then maybe 25% of the time the game actually gets aborted just when it is starting because of an error from another player

This is Dire Marsh Sponsored so it should have heaps of players?
 
At the moment I am waiting 10 minutes for games and then maybe 25% of the time the game actually gets aborted just when it is starting because of an error from another player

This is Dire Marsh Sponsored so it should have heaps of players?
Dwindling online users shouldn't be the issue when the game still has 20k CCU during peak times when combined with console gamers. Even mid day should be plenty.

Problem is their MM is very rigid so if you are out of scope in location or character level it won't even put you into a game.

When I was still playing COD world at war on Xbox years ago and the player counter said 500-1000 gamers online I still got into matches fast. And that game doesn't even have cross play.

But COD MM is fast and flexible so it'll get you games fast. Only when it dropped to 200-300 gamer count did I have trouble finding games and quit for good. Played it for 15 years
 
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Given how low the CCU has been for weeks now, it really makes you wonder where all of these Marathon owners have gone? What are they doing? Because they aren't playing Marathon anymore....🤔
this I'm 99.9% sure that most players sold their copies or ask for refunds from Steam
 
16.3k at 8pmET. Peak is probably two hours away so 19k is certainly doable but 20k a bit more challenging. Regardless, Cryo is only having minimal overall boost now. Plus the sale is still occurring i think?
 
this I'm 99.9% sure that most players sold their copies or ask for refunds from Steam
I was a bit curios and decided to check. Steam doesn't let us filter reviews by people who refunded so i instead filtered based on the amount of hours played.

Heres what i found out, using reviews as a sample of the playerbase.

There is a total of 46.511 reviews as of the time i'm writing this
Out of these
19.169 come from people who played for less than 10 hours, meaning around 40% of its playerbase
11.460
for less than 5 hours, around 25% of its playerbase
4.257
for less than 2 hours, around 10% of its playerbase
Over 50 hours of playtime: 7.935, around 17% of the players.

For comparison:
Baldurs Gate 3-> total 835.589 reviews
90.138 played less than 10 hours -> 10%
41.093 less than 5 -> 5%
9.784 less than 2 -> 1%
Over 50 hours: 501.386 -> 60%

Expedition 33 -> total 262.957 reviews
45.225 -> 17%
22.585 -> 9%
6.191 -> 2%
Over 50 hours: 94.278 -> 35%

Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 -> total 179.086 reviews
22.588 -> 12%
11.713 -> 7%
3.593 -> 2%
Over 50 hours: 103.481 -> 57%

(comparing to stuff that released closely)
Slay the Spire 2 -> total 146.214 reviews
32.526 -> 22%
16.647 -> 11%
4.372 -> 3%
Over 50 hours: 51.667 -> 35%

Death Stranding 2 -> total 19.302 reviews
6.406 -> 33%
3.882 -> 20%
1.592 -> 8%
Over 50 hours: 4.731 -> 24%

Crimson Desert -> total 139.078 reviews
45.552 -> 32%
26.680 -> 19%
11.511 -> 8%
Over 50 hours: 28.763 -> 21%

So yeah, Men_in_Boxes Men_in_Boxes , players are clearly more engaged with these "outdated single player experiences" than with #omegagenre Marathon.
Its even more hilarious when you consider some of those like DS2 and Expedition 33 can tecnically be beaten under 50 hours and they still managed to retain more players past this threshold. Crimson desert is also a troubled release with many probably waiting for patches, and that still surpassed Marathon in all engagement metrics

For curiosity, this is where #omegagenre Arc Raiders stands:
Total -> 384.790
73.500
-> 19%
34.520 -> 9%
8.612 -> 2%
Over 50 hours of playtime: 158.092 -> 40%
Basically #omegagenre middle of the pack
 
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I was a bit curios and decided to check. Steam doesn't let us filter reviews by people who refunded so i instead filtered based on the amount of hours played.

Heres what i found out, using reviews as a sample of the playerbase.

There is a total of 46.511 reviews as of the time i'm writing this
Out of these
19.169 come from people who played for less than 10 hours, meaning around 40% of its playerbase
11.460
for less than 5 hours, around 25% of its playerbase
4.257
for less than 2 hours, around 10% of its playerbase
Over 50 hours of playtime: 7.935, around 17% of the players.

For comparison:
Baldurs Gate 3-> total 835.589 reviews
90.138 played less than 10 hours -> 10%
41.093 less than 5 -> 5%
9.784 less than 2 -> 1%
Over 50 hours: 501.386 -> 60%

Expedition 33 -> total 262.957 reviews
45.225 -> 17%
22.585 -> 9%
6.191 -> 2%
Over 50 hours: 94.278 -> 35%

Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 -> total 179.086 reviews
22.588 -> 12%
11.713 -> 7%
3.593 -> 2%
Over 50 hours: 103.481 -> 57%

(comparing to stuff that released closely)
Slay the Spire 2 -> total 146.214 reviews
32.526 -> 22%
16.647 -> 11%
4.372 -> 3%
Over 50 hours: 51.667 -> 35%

Death Stranding 2 -> total 19.302 reviews
6.406 -> 33%
3.882 -> 20%
1.592 -> 8%
Over 50 hours: 4.731 -> 24%

Crimson Desert -> total 139.078 reviews
45.552 -> 32%
26.680 -> 19%
11.511 -> 8%
Over 40 hours: 28.763 -> 21%

So yeah, Men_in_Boxes Men_in_Boxes , players are clearly more engaged with these "outdated single player experiences" than with #omegagenre Marathon.
Its even more hilarious when you consider some of those like DS2 and Expedition 33 can tecnically be beaten under 50 hours and they still managed to retain more players past this threshold. Crimson desert is also a troubled release with many probably waiting for patches, and that still surparsed Marathon in all engagement metrics

For curiosity, this is where Arc Raiders stands:
Total -> 384.790
73.500
-> 19%
34.520 -> 9%
8.612 -> 2%
Over 50 hours of playtime: 158.092 -> 40%
Basically middle of the pack


They're switching off "black hole games" and "saturated market" to "Actually SP games have better engagment!"

This meltdown has been a long time coming lol
 
Some more interesting stuff i was able to gather:

Like i said Expedition 33 and Death Stranding 2 are meant to be 30-60 hours games, but i've decided to check how many people played them for over 100 hours (again from the review sample).

Expedition 33: 14.028 out of 262.962, around 5%
Death Stranding 2: 1.263 out of 19.309 , around 6~7%

Where does #Omegagenre Marathon stands?
Marathon: 3.164 out of 46.514, around 6~7%

So yeah, #Omegagenre Marathon, master of engagement designed to be played for more than 100 hours, is basically sitting side by side with 50 hour-long single player games :pie_roffles:

Now, where do SP games meant to be played for over 100 hours sit?
Baldurs Gate 3: 331.717 out of 835.593 , around 40%
KCD2: 52.509 out of 179.091 , around 30%

Btw this is #omegenre Arc Raiders
Arc Raiders: 82.983 out of 384.807, around 21~22%

:pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles:

Its over Men_in_Boxes Men_in_Boxes we have the high ground

high-ground-2.png


Don't try it
 
Some more interesting stuff i was able to gather:

Like i said Expedition 33 and Death Stranding 2 are meant to be 30-60 hours games, but i've decided to check how many people played them for over 100 hours (again from the review sample).

Expedition 33: 14.028 out of 262.962, around 5%
Death Stranding 2: 1.263 out of 19.309 , around 6~7%

Where does #Omegagenre Marathon stands?
Marathon: 3.164 out of 46.514, around 6~7%

So yeah, #Omegagenre Marathon, master of engagement designed to be played for more than 100 hours, is basically sitting side by side with 50 hour-long single player games :pie_roffles:

Now, where do SP games meant to be played for over 100 hours sit?
Baldurs Gate 3: 331.717 out of 835.593 , around 40%
KCD2: 52.509 out of 179.091 , around 30%

Btw this is #omegenre Arc Raiders
Arc Raiders: 82.983 out of 384.807, around 21~22%

:pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles:

Its over Men_in_Boxes Men_in_Boxes we have the high ground

high-ground-2.png


Don't try it
Where do you get those data from? Do you have the Civilization VII one?
 
Where do you get those data from? Do you have the Civilization VII one?
Just go to the reviews on the store page and mess with the filters

Civ VII:
Total reviews: 53.986
More than 50 hours played: 12.286 -> 22% of the playerbase
More than 100 hours played: 6.253 -> 15~16% of the playerbase
Less than 10: 19.398 -> 36%

Civ VI:
Total reviews: 372.448
More than 50 hours played: 183.375 -> 49% of the playerbase
More than 100 hours played: 124.643 -> 33% of the playerbase
Less than 10: 59.506 -> 16%


I guess people didn't like Civ 7 very much 🤷‍♂️
 
The peak might change, but getting this out now as I wanna go back to watching NHL playoffs (Avs/LA on)! But turns out this game peaked at 20.3k! A miracle. It held up the +10% from mid afternoon rest of day!

10 pm completed hour CCU. Peak reached at 20.3k
All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 20.3k is -63k or -71%

Today vs yesterday: 20.3k vs 18.4k (+1.9k or +10%)

Yesterday's low 5.2k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 5.7k

Thu vs Thu: 20.3k vs 25k (-4.7k or -19%). After a few bad -25% days, back close to historic -20%

Alternate method to estimate peaks and valleys (ballpark ratios)
On normal weekdays, 3.3:1. For example, a peak 20k will have a low of 6k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1

Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users 99
Global Top Sellers 78 (-20% sale boost this week)
Weekly Top Sellers 81 ending Apr 21 (was 67 last week)
Top Rated Games 5,771 (84.23%)
 
Some more interesting stuff i was able to gather:

Like i said Expedition 33 and Death Stranding 2 are meant to be 30-60 hours games, but i've decided to check how many people played them for over 100 hours (again from the review sample).

Expedition 33: 14.028 out of 262.962, around 5%
Death Stranding 2: 1.263 out of 19.309 , around 6~7%

Where does #Omegagenre Marathon stands?
Marathon: 3.164 out of 46.514, around 6~7%

So yeah, #Omegagenre Marathon, master of engagement designed to be played for more than 100 hours, is basically sitting side by side with 50 hour-long single player games :pie_roffles:

Now, where do SP games meant to be played for over 100 hours sit?
Baldurs Gate 3: 331.717 out of 835.593 , around 40%
KCD2: 52.509 out of 179.091 , around 30%

Btw this is #omegenre Arc Raiders
Arc Raiders: 82.983 out of 384.807, around 21~22%

:pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles:

Its over Men_in_Boxes Men_in_Boxes we have the high ground

high-ground-2.png


Don't try it
18m9en.jpg
 
Just go to the reviews on the store page and mess with the filters

Civ VII:
Total reviews: 53.986
More than 50 hours played: 12.286 -> 22% of the playerbase
More than 100 hours played: 6.253 -> 15~16% of the playerbase
Less than 10: 19.398 -> 36%

Civ VI:
Total reviews: 372.448
More than 50 hours played: 183.375 -> 49% of the playerbase
More than 100 hours played: 124.643 -> 33% of the playerbase
Less than 10: 59.506 -> 16%


I guess people didn't like Civ 7 very much 🤷‍♂️
You should look up, the fans hated it with passion. I saw what they did and even me, someone who don't play these games was like:
 
Some more interesting stuff i was able to gather:

Like i said Expedition 33 and Death Stranding 2 are meant to be 30-60 hours games, but i've decided to check how many people played them for over 100 hours (again from the review sample).

Expedition 33: 14.028 out of 262.962, around 5%
Death Stranding 2: 1.263 out of 19.309 , around 6~7%

Where does #Omegagenre Marathon stands?
Marathon: 3.164 out of 46.514, around 6~7%

So yeah, #Omegagenre Marathon, master of engagement designed to be played for more than 100 hours, is basically sitting side by side with 50 hour-long single player games :pie_roffles:

Now, where do SP games meant to be played for over 100 hours sit?
Baldurs Gate 3: 331.717 out of 835.593 , around 40%
KCD2: 52.509 out of 179.091 , around 30%

Btw this is #omegenre Arc Raiders
Arc Raiders: 82.983 out of 384.807, around 21~22%

:pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles::pie_roffles:

Its over Men_in_Boxes Men_in_Boxes we have the high ground

high-ground-2.png


Don't try it
I've put in every hour of available game time in Marathon since launch and I'm at 50 hours…

The game has been out for 2 months? My bet is that Arc was at a similar percentage after 2 months.
 
I've put in every hour of available game time in Marathon since launch and I'm at 50 hours…

The game has been out for 2 months? My bet is that Arc was at a similar percentage after 2 months.
You mean over 100 hours? Nope, Arc Raiders sat at 39751 out of 258613 reviews with over 100 hours of gameplay 2 months after release, roughly 15% of the player base.
 
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