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Marathon approaching 15k CCU low (sponsored by coachmcguirk91 - still having a blast)



This video explores the growing concerns regarding Bungie's upcoming extraction shooter, Marathon. The core issue is a significant burnout among the game's most dedicated content creators, such as Drewsky and IFrostBolt (1:29-1:36, 8:48-9:11).

Key factors contributing to this decline include:

  • Matchmaking Issues: A reported matchmaking bug, combined with a "free-kit" queue, has led to a poor player experience, including extreme skill creep and long wait times (0:39-0:55, 1:47-2:48).
  • Shrinking Population: Data from Steam charts indicates a sharp decline in players, fueling fears that the game's ecosystem is failing even before the end of its first season (0:17-0:27, 3:56-4:05).
  • Predictability: Top players are repeatedly matched against each other in a small, non-anonymous pool, removing the sense of unpredictability and organic engagement that makes extraction shooters fun (2:36-2:48, 5:54-6:07).

Conclusion

The creator argues that Marathon is currently facing a "ticking time bomb" scenario (14:54-15:03). While some may dismiss the complaints of streamers as a "skill issue," the loss of these prominent community figures functions as a loss of essential marketing and community vitality (9:44-10:22, 11:26-12:12). Unless Bungie takes swift action—potentially through significant technical updates or matchmaking adjustments—there is a palpable sense of doom regarding the game's long-term sustainability (14:38-14:51, 16:33-16:51).



If this conclusion holds, we could see an abnormal decline in players for this game in the next 2-3 weeks, basically a collapse in population (not very likely, but it sounds cool). Maybe....Marathon is already at the Event Horizon.
 
dr6q849.gif
 
LMAO top thread on the Marathon sub is about how it's the most popular viewed game on SteamDB and the top comments are all "well if it dies at least I had fun". Even they know what's coming.
 
Seems that for Asia and Europe Marathon and Destiny are pretty close now. Marathon curve peaks a little higher but follows a similar pattern. A few more weeks of this and they'll be matched.


vyjSINs5v6sBW1Qh.png
 
Conflict NZ said:
LMAO top thread on the Marathon sub is about how it's the most popular viewed game on SteamDB and the top comments are all "well if it dies at least I had fun". Even they know what's coming.
Click to expand...
It just goes to show how many people bungie rubbed the wrong way whether it's destiny neglect, their woke fucking asses, art theft, dicking over employees, they are imo... Just shitty in so many ways and I think karma finally just hit these idiots hard finally.
 
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5 pm completed hour.

-11% vs last Monday. Last Monday peak was 22.9k So less 11%, and tonight tracking to 20.4k.

Breaking under 20k still doable if it drops an extra couple %.
 
Hollywood Hitman said:
It just goes to show how many people bungie rubbed the wrong way whether it's destiny neglect, their woke fucking asses, art theft, dicking over employees, they are imo... Just shitty in so many ways and I think karma finally just hit these idiots hard finally.
Click to expand...
Yup. This game had so much going against it from all angles it's amazing how anyone would even greenlight the concept itself, and then a massive budget on top of it. And this comes from Bungie who you'd think knows how to make a good shooter. And this Ziegler guy I never heard of before since I never played Valorant would know better too.

Giant budget and time to make game lead to this:

Before launch
- Shooter (ok makes sense, since Bungie makes them and GAAS is skewed very heavy to shooters)
- Extraction (niche)
- Loud Mirrors Edge/Lego look (niche)
- Trios only (limited appeal)
- Probably the worst UI ever in a shooter with blinding colours and microscopic icons and fonts (some gamers will avoid esp console gamers)
- One mode. No shooting range. No SP, PVE mode, or extra MP modes (feature light)
- Only 3 maps (map content light)
- $40 (not the end of the world since other extraction games charge money, but all this for $40? Value equation is thin)
- Art plagiarism (not sure if this affects overall sales, but surely was a laugh. But some gamers with hardcore ethics like anti-AI might avoid this game)
- Anyone already pissed at Bungie due to way they handled Destiny (reduces gamers)

Game is released
- Cryo/Rank (hardcore trios only, limited appeal)
- Tacked on solo play for some modes (not a lot of content for solo gamers)
- Game doesnt use SBMM (casuals will bail)
- Rigid/lousy matchmaking system, combined with staring at crazy loading screens (reduces gamers as they cant take it anymore)
- Biggest content drop in first 3 months is a patch. Season 2 biggest content drop is a Dire Marsh night map, a new character, and stat wipe. Season 3 roadmap unknown (overall light content roadmap)
- Cheaters galore (reduces gamers)

Add it up and name one person on Earth who'd say this game would be a success whether Marathon is in production or released how it is now.
 
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StreetsofBeige said:
Yup. This game had so much going against it from all angles it's amazing how anyone would even greenlight the concept itself, and then a massive budget on top of it. And this comes from Bungie who you'd think knows how to make a good shooter. And this Ziegler guy I never heard of before since I never played Valorant would know better too.

Giant budget and time to make game lead to this:

Before launch
- Shooter (ok makes sense, since Bungie makes them and GAAS is skewed very heavy to shooters)
- Extraction (niche)
- Loud Mirrors Edge/Lego look (niche)
- Trios only (limited appeal)
- Probably the worst UI ever in a shooter with blinding colours and microscopic icons and fonts (some gamers will avoid esp console gamers)
- One mode. No shooting range. No SP, PVE mode, or extra MP modes (feature light)
- Only 3 maps (map content light)
- $40 (not the end of the world since other extraction games charge money, but all this for $40? Value equation is thin)
- Art plagiarism (not sure if this affects overall sales, but surely was a laugh. But some gamers with hardcore ethics like anti-AI might avoid this game)
- Anyone already pissed at Bungie due to way they handled Destiny (reduces gamers)

Game is released
- Cryo/Rank (hardcore trios only, limited appeal)
- Tacked on solo play for some modes (not a lot of content for solo gamers)
- Game doesnt use SBMM (casuals will bail)
- Rigid/lousy matchmaking system, combined with staring at crazy loading screens (reduces gamers as they cant take it anymore)
- Biggest content drop in first 3 months is a patch. Season 2 biggest content drop is a Dire Marsh night map, a new character, and stat wipe. Season 3 roadmap unknown (overall light content roadmap)
- Cheaters galore (reduces gamers)

Add it up and name one person on Earth who'd say this game would be a success whether Marathon is in production or released how it is now.
Click to expand...
The commentary from non Marathon players is something else...
 
StreetsofBeige said:
Yup. This game had so much going against it from all angles it's amazing how anyone would even greenlight the concept itself, and then a massive budget on top of it. And this comes from Bungie who you'd think knows how to make a good shooter. And this Ziegler guy I never heard of before since I never played Valorant would know better too.

Giant budget and time to make game lead to this:

Before launch
- Shooter (ok makes sense, since Bungie makes them and GAAS is skewed very heavy to shooters)
- Extraction (niche)
- Loud Mirrors Edge/Lego look (niche)
- Trios only (limited appeal)
- Probably the worst UI ever in a shooter with blinding colours and microscopic icons and fonts (some gamers will avoid esp console gamers)
- One mode. No shooting range. No SP, PVE mode, or extra MP modes (feature light)
- Only 3 maps (map content light)
- $40 (not the end of the world since other extraction games charge money, but all this for $40? Value equation is thin)
- Art plagiarism (not sure if this affects overall sales, but surely was a laugh. But some gamers with hardcore ethics like anti-AI might avoid this game)
- Anyone already pissed at Bungie due to way they handled Destiny (reduces gamers)

Game is released
- Cryo/Rank (hardcore trios only, limited appeal)
- Tacked on solo play for some modes (not a lot of content for solo gamers)
- Game doesnt use SBMM (casuals will bail)
- Rigid/lousy matchmaking system, combined with staring at crazy loading screens (reduces gamers as they cant take it anymore)
- Biggest content drop in first 3 months is a patch. Season 2 biggest content drop is a Dire Marsh night map, a new character, and stat wipe. Season 3 roadmap unknown (overall light content roadmap)
- Cheaters galore (reduces gamers)

Add it up and name one person on Earth who'd say this game would be a success whether Marathon is in production or released how it is now.
Click to expand...
Despite enjoying the first alpha, a lot of this is why I never got it.

-Once I played the server slam with lost progress, I realized that the wipes would be awful.
- There was one particularly bad loading screen with a bunch of gross looking caterpillars and moths eating shit and I had to look at that for a minute or more during matchmaking.
-The cosmetics are awful, you cannot make a character look cool when the shells already look lame.
-I already experienced 50% of what the full game has to offer on the closed test.
-The TTK is bad since dying is a punishment not just on losing supplies but also on time. It can take 5 minutes to get back into a game and I fucking hate that. There is considerable downtime between the fun bits.
- I find extraction to be a bad genre. Digging through dumpters on repeat isn't fun.

Going into the server slam I lost all interest. It felt like they went pvp heavy extraction so they didn't have to design and program enemy types for a campaign.
 
I will give the game one bit of credit, i expected the daily peak to be 10k or under by now, so its passed my expectations lol.

Will be funny to see where it is a year from now, assuming it survives that long.
 
Wow hit 19,362 and has now started dropping. If it doesn't go up any more that puts todays CCU back inline with pre-patch predictions meaning essentially all the people that came back post patch are now gone.
 
Big Beauford was right! There was more to drop.

10 pm completed hour CCU. Daily peak breached below 20k for the first time at 19.4k
All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 19.4k is -68.9k or -78%

Today vs yesterday: 19.4k vs 22.1k (-2.7k or -12%)

Yesterday's low 5.7k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 5k

Mon vs Mon: 19.4k vs 22.9k (-3.5k or -15%)

Historically, the game had -20% week over week. Patch day reduced those daily declines to -3 to 12% last week, but today the weekly decline crept back to -15%

Alternate method to estimate peaks and valleys (ballpark ratios)
On normal weekdays, 3:1. For example, a peak 30k will have a low of 10k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1

Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users 102
Global Top Sellers 98
Weekly Top Sellers 67 ending Apr 14 (was 41 last week)
Top Rated Games 5,708 (84.33%)
 
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Conflict NZ said:
Wow hit 19,362 and has now started dropping. If it doesn't go up any more that puts todays CCU back inline with pre-patch predictions meaning essentially all the people that came back post patch are now gone.
Click to expand...
This game very peculiar short term bumps. Cryo day bumps are always a gainer day, but then immediately loses steam the next day. Like cryo gamers only do it for one day and lose interest. Then the big patch day was a jump. A mix of gameplay tweaks and the new features for solo/weaker gamers etc.... Again, immediately CCU dropped off the next day.

So it shows whatever they do doesnt have enough substance to keep gamers coming back aside from a one day pop.
 
StreetsofBeige said:
This game very peculiar short term bumps. Cryo day bumps are always a gainer day, but then immediately loses steam the next day. Like cryo gamers only do it for one day and lose interest. Then the big patch day was a jump. A mix of gameplay tweaks and the new features for solo/weaker gamers etc.... Again, immediately CCU dropped off the next day.

So it shows whatever they do doesnt have enough substance to keep gamers coming back aside from a one day pop.
Click to expand...
Bump for 1 day of Cryo could be because a large bunch of them lost their shit to other players right off the bat and they don't have any good shit left to bother with more attempts during Cryo.
They then grind again all week following Cryo only to lose thier shit again. No wonder people are abandoning this game like rats from a sinking Concord.

Week on week losses are probably people finally waking up to what a crap OmegaGenre this game is and decide there are lots of other games that reward their play efforts more.
 
StreetsofBeige said:
This game very peculiar short term bumps. Cryo day bumps are always a gainer day, but then immediately loses steam the next day. Like cryo gamers only do it for one day and lose interest. Then the big patch day was a jump. A mix of gameplay tweaks and the new features for solo/weaker gamers etc.... Again, immediately CCU dropped off the next day.

So it shows whatever they do doesnt have enough substance to keep gamers coming back aside from a one day pop.
Click to expand...

Reminds me of when my wife and I would play Final Fantasy XIV ourselves; would log in when Raid reset, try for our loot and spam Wanderers Palace dungeon speedruns to cap tomes for the week and buy a piece of gear.

That's it. See ya next week.

Marathon just doesnt have the population for that.
 
Pollux said:
Yeah definitely worth killing Destiny for this. Great idea, Bungie.
Click to expand...
At the time D2 was hot, so they thought Marathon would be an additional shooter to cash in on GAAS. Turns out D2 fell hard, but they were already neck deep in Marathon development.

Cant do Destiny 3 yet because that would cannibalize and kill off D2 sales. They wanted to fully service two games at once. It wouldnt be so bad if Marathon was a better game that attracted the masses to carry the torch, but it was funneled to be a hardcore game which only a fool would believe it would do gangbuster sales.

Their masterplan was no doubt:

1. Big D2 sales for a long time
2. Marathon joins in as a big seller too
3. Do D3 later when D2 eventually fizzles out

Turns out D2 fizzled out fast and Marathon never got off the ground like they wanted. So now they're stuck.
 
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Men_in_Boxes said:
Nothing has changed on the Marathon dev team. Morale is good, according to Paul Tassi.

Nobody in charge of the game is as dramatic and overreactive as the people in this thread.
Click to expand...
Don't be stupid, if you believe any of that you're incredibly naive. The game is a collosal failure, it's running on fumes and has maybe 6 months before it's closed.

Remember Sony run Bungie it doesn't matter if morale is good or not (which it isn't) it's all about the bottom line and Sony will do what they've been doing all generation, terminating project's and closing studio's that aren't bringing in the bacon.
 
2 months from now:

Bungie: the game is already back from maintenance. You guys can go back and play it now.
... Guys? Guys?

PCGamer: toxic gamers killed an GOTY candidate.
 
StreetsofBeige said:
At the time D2 was hot, so they thought Marathon would be an additional shooter to cash in on GAAS. Turns out D2 fell hard, but they were already neck deep in Marathon development.

Cant do Destiny 3 yet because that would cannibalize and kill off D2 sales. They wanted to fully service two games at once. It wouldnt be so bad if Marathon was a better game that attracted the masses to carry the torch, but it was funneled to be a hardcore game which only a fool would believe it would do gangbuster sales.

Their masterplan was no doubt:

1. Big D2 sales for a long time
2. Marathon joins in as a big seller too
3. Do D3 later when D2 eventually fizzles out

Turns out D2 fizzled out fast and Marathon never got off the ground like they wanted. So now they're stuck.
Click to expand...
I agree with everything you said, but I just want to add that part of the reason that D2 fell off so hard is because they siphoned so much away for other titles that never saw the light of day and Marathon - and at the same time just shit all over the D2 community at every turn while not putting any effort back into D2. If they had given D2 the attention they've given Marathon it would be in a much better place. D3 is realistically the only major path forward unless they do a FFXIV ARR reboot of Marathon to include a single player campaign, a PVE extraction mode that doesn't have as good of loot for people that just want to not play against sweats, some traditional PVP shooter modes, etc. They also need to change the UI and how the mods/upgrades look, because for a new player at a glance they all look the same and in this game you can't really afford to spend 5 minutes going through everything i the middle of the match.
 
marathon is fun, it takes 15 mins to get into a match then you walk around for 10 mins picking up misc trash and doing events then someone stabs u and u lose all the shit that u got but it's fine because u don't know what any of it is or what it does bungie did it again

they killed destiny 2 by introducing that boring portal, june update actually has a chance to fix destiny 2 if they course correct and revert all the wacky changes introduced in edge of fate that no one asked for, whoever's in charge of these two games recently just looks like they're hellbent on destroying them
 
SnapShot said:
marathon is fun, it takes 15 mins to get into a match then you walk around for 10 mins picking up misc trash and doing events then someone stabs u and u lose all the shit that u got but it's fine because u don't know what any of it is or what it does bungie did it again

they killed destiny 2 by introducing that boring portal, june update actually has a chance to fix destiny 2 if they course correct and revert all the wacky changes introduced in edge of fate that no one asked for, whoever's in charge of these two games recently just looks like they're hellbent on destroying them
Click to expand...
Steve Brule GIF by MOODMAN
 
www.forbes.com

As ‘Marathon’ Goes On Sale, Is A Free-To-Play Switch In The Cards?

Marathon needs to stop losing players, so is going free-to-play a way to do that? It's complicated, given the situation.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

Summary incoming:
Bungie's new extraction shooter Marathon (their first original IP in over a decade after Destiny, and a Sony live-service title) is still buzzing in the industry, but it's hitting some rough patches. It's not in danger of shutting down like Concord was, but player counts have been dropping fast week-over-week and are now sitting around the same low levels as The Finals—especially struggling hard on Xbox.

To try and give it a little boost, they just put the game on sale there: 20% off, down from $40 to $32. They've also started experimenting with more casual-friendly stuff, like an "even playing field" sponsored kit mode and a new event that rewards players for showing mercy (though the article says it's sparking more trolling than actual friendship, lol).

The big question the piece asks: With all the player loss, is a switch to free-to-play in the cards to remove that $40 barrier and pull in way more casual folks?

Tassi's answer? A strong no (and he bets Sony and Bungie feel the same). His reasons: New free players would be stuck grinding on the basic Perimeter map forever and miss the really cool, super-tough late-game stuff like Outpost and Cryo. The battle pass and microtransactions aren't strong enough yet (they even need patches to add more rewards), so F2P wouldn't magically make money. Plus it'd probably annoy everyone who already paid full price—they'd need compensation. He says it's smarter for them to keep iterating on the current paid version with more updates, free modes, and maybe even tweaking the extraction formula a bit.

He does nod to Rainbow Six Siege as a rare success story that went F2P after massive overhauls and became a huge hit, but stresses it would take enormous changes for Marathon to pull that off too.

So yeah—the game needs to stabilize and chase more casual players soon, but a free-to-play flip isn't looking like the magic fix right now. It's all about smart iteration instead.
Click to expand...
Thanks Grok!
 
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Zacfoldor said:
www.forbes.com

As ‘Marathon’ Goes On Sale, Is A Free-To-Play Switch In The Cards?

Marathon needs to stop losing players, so is going free-to-play a way to do that? It's complicated, given the situation.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

Summary incoming:

Thanks Grok!
Click to expand...
For the free to play gambit to work their cosmetic shop has to be fire and in demand. The consensus is that the cosmetics in marathon are no beuno.

Only so much you can do with modern art Lego super soaker rainbow color diarrhea.

Also the suckers that paid full price will throw a fit. A sweaty fit.
 
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asdasdasdbb said:
I would say adding it to PS+ Extra first would be the first step.
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Plague Doctor Plague Doctor 's point still stands. Putting it on PS+ is quasi-F2P. It's not going to drive new subscribers so they'd need their microtransactions shop to be on lock to make any money from being on PS+. Even the most ardent of the game's defenders admit the microtransactions are… meh at best.
 
Men_in_Boxes said:
Paul Tassi's reporting on Marathon has been reliable. There's no reason to think he's lying / wrong here.
Click to expand...

How could Bungies or Sony possibly be happy with Marathon right now? It clearly is not performing well, everyone can see that, the data does not lie. The only way they could be happy is if they aren't paying attention, which I highly doubt is the case.
 
Mengy said:
How could Bungies or Sony possibly be happy with Marathon right now? It clearly is not performing well, everyone can see that, the data does not lie. The only way they could be happy is if they aren't paying attention, which I highly doubt is the case.
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The game is in Early Access. They got a cool 1.2+ million in sales and will monitor how the game does over Seasons 2, 3, and 4.
 
For a GAAS like this to grow there needs to be a positive feedback loop for players that allows new players to learn about and get excited about the game.

Marathon currently has a negative feedback loop. They need to turn that around before they burn one off their "juice the numbers" cards, since they only have so many.
 
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