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Marathon approaching 15k CCU low (sponsored by coachmcguirk91 - still having a blast)
Plague Doctor
Member
Lol folks on Twitter still defending this game
"CCU doesnt show how many players are having fun playing!"
But. It kind of does show how many people are having fun. Concurrently.
Ah the delicious cope from the defense squads.
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Roman Empire
Member
This is bad to hear, especially coming from you who is so invested in the game.
Bungie fucking up as usual.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
I'm not too devastated as I expect each season will come with impactful changes to Cryo. If they nerf shotguns and make the map a little easier, it'll be a good enough map to be in the rotation.
StreetsofBeige
Member
Quick 10 am complete hour check.
About +9% vs yesterday. About -10% vs last Friday. Using both methodologies would make today's peak to be roughly 26 to 27.5k. The low end uses last Friday, the high end uses yesterday. Maybe it ends up in the middle at 26.5-27k.
Also first time it's dropped off top 100 sellers list. If any of you can buy Marathon on Steam it might move the needle so it surpasses The Seven Deadly Sins: Origin.
About +9% vs yesterday. About -10% vs last Friday. Using both methodologies would make today's peak to be roughly 26 to 27.5k. The low end uses last Friday, the high end uses yesterday. Maybe it ends up in the middle at 26.5-27k.
Also first time it's dropped off top 100 sellers list. If any of you can buy Marathon on Steam it might move the needle so it surpasses The Seven Deadly Sins: Origin.
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Ogbert
Member
I bought Seven Deadly Sins instead.Quick 10 am complete hour check.
About +9% vs yesterday. About -10% vs last Friday. Using both methodologies would make today's peak to be roughly 26 to 27.5k. The low end uses last Friday, the high end uses yesterday. Maybe it ends up in the middle at 26.5-27k.
Also first time it's dropped off top 100 sellers list. If any of you can buy Marathon on Steam it might move the needle so it surpasses The Seven Deadly Sins: Origin.
falconhoof
Member
StreetsofBeige
Member
So that's who Bungie based the Marathon characters on.I see what you did there.
StreetsofBeige
Member
Quick 3 pm completed hour check. Looks like those early morning gains lost back.
18.8k vs 18.7k yesterday. So flat. If that holds all day, peak will be about 25k again like yesterday. Not a good sign as Friday's are usually Marathon's best peak of the week (as opposed to a weekend day which other games have as their weekly peak).
As reference, best peak so far this week is Tuesday at 26.6k when it did the big patch.
18.8k vs 18.7k yesterday. So flat. If that holds all day, peak will be about 25k again like yesterday. Not a good sign as Friday's are usually Marathon's best peak of the week (as opposed to a weekend day which other games have as their weekly peak).
As reference, best peak so far this week is Tuesday at 26.6k when it did the big patch.
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Mengy
wishes it were bannable to say mean things about Marvel
ChorizoPicozo
Member
The use of AIWhy would the purple place want Arc to fail? That doesn't make any sense?
Plague Doctor
Member
AI bullshit. Sock puppet devs are worried that 'normalizing' any of it will mean their jobs.Why would the purple place want Arc to fail? That doesn't make any sense?
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Mengy
wishes it were bannable to say mean things about Marvel
StreetsofBeige
Member
10 pm completed hour CCU
All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 25.4k is -62.9k or -71%
Today vs yesterday: 25.4k vs 25k (+0.4k or +2%)
Yesterday's low 7.2k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 7.3k, but surely higher as it's a Friday night. So probably 9-10k
Fri vs Fri: 25.4k vs 28.5k (-3.1k or -11%)
At +2%, the worst performing Friday aside from launch week Friday and Good Friday
Alternate method to estimate peaks and valleys (ballpark ratios)
On normal weekdays, 3:1. For example, a peak 30k will have a low of 10k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1
Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users 85
Global Top Sellers 74
Weekly Top Sellers 67 ending Apr 14 (was 41 last week)
Top Rated Games 5,679 (84.38%)
All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 25.4k is -62.9k or -71%
Today vs yesterday: 25.4k vs 25k (+0.4k or +2%)
Yesterday's low 7.2k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 7.3k, but surely higher as it's a Friday night. So probably 9-10k
Fri vs Fri: 25.4k vs 28.5k (-3.1k or -11%)
At +2%, the worst performing Friday aside from launch week Friday and Good Friday
Alternate method to estimate peaks and valleys (ballpark ratios)
On normal weekdays, 3:1. For example, a peak 30k will have a low of 10k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1
Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users 85
Global Top Sellers 74
Weekly Top Sellers 67 ending Apr 14 (was 41 last week)
Top Rated Games 5,679 (84.38%)
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falconhoof
Member
Game continues to track similar numbers of the last few days despite it being the weekend. It's down about 3.5K CCU from this time last week.
falconhoof
Member
The peakth hath happen 24,121. Last Saturday it was 27,381. Also, another Saturday that couldn't top Friday's peak unlike other similar titles.
Game seems to have hit a resistance level now, where it's still bleeding, but not gushing.
Game seems to have hit a resistance level now, where it's still bleeding, but not gushing.
Conflict NZ
Member
Drops are still significant percentages but as the numbers decrease the numerical drops become smaller so much more boring and slow to watch.Wow this topic isn't on the front page anymore, what's happening ? I guess even shitting on this has become boring like the game itself
As a side note Marathon just had it's second worst day ever on a US Saturday, things continue to stay dire.
StreetsofBeige
Member
Sorry guys was out most of the day including a big family dinner!
11 pm completed hour CCU. As usual it drops on weekends. 24.1k is the second lowest CCU after Monday's low before patch day
All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 24.1k is -64.2k or -73%
Today vs yesterday: 24.1k vs 25.4k (-1.3k or -5%)
Yesterday's low 9k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 8.6k, but surely higher as it's a Sat night. So probably around 9k again
Sat vs Sat: 24.1k vs 27.4k (-3.3k or -12%)
Alternate method to estimate peaks and valleys (ballpark ratios)
On normal weekdays, 3:1. For example, a peak 30k will have a low of 10k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1
Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users 90
Global Top Sellers 83
Weekly Top Sellers 67 ending Apr 14 (was 41 last week)
Top Rated Games 5,689 (84.36%)
11 pm completed hour CCU. As usual it drops on weekends. 24.1k is the second lowest CCU after Monday's low before patch day
All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 24.1k is -64.2k or -73%
Today vs yesterday: 24.1k vs 25.4k (-1.3k or -5%)
Yesterday's low 9k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 8.6k, but surely higher as it's a Sat night. So probably around 9k again
Sat vs Sat: 24.1k vs 27.4k (-3.3k or -12%)
Alternate method to estimate peaks and valleys (ballpark ratios)
On normal weekdays, 3:1. For example, a peak 30k will have a low of 10k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1
Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users 90
Global Top Sellers 83
Weekly Top Sellers 67 ending Apr 14 (was 41 last week)
Top Rated Games 5,689 (84.36%)
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falconhoof
Member
StreetsofBeige
Member
Since Tues patch drop day, the week over week drop % have definitely improved From a consistent -20%-ish, it's been single digit % drops Tues-Thu, but yesterday/today have been -11 to -12% each.
We'll have to see next week if it gets back to -20% again. Or perhaps it'll level off at maybe -10% since casuals thinned out so much by now what's remaining are hardcore gamers who are sticking around.
But given it's still decreasing there's more to go. The patch drop slowed down the bleeding, but it's still dripping.
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Conflict NZ
Member
Someone on the purple forum did a prediction for every day until season 2 based on existing trends before the patch and the patch definitely increased CCU but this Saturday is only ~1500 above the pre-patch prediction. Using the 10x multiplier guesstimate for total players based on CCU that means only ~15,000 players returned today based on the new patch.
We could still see sub 10K daily peaks before Season 2.
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I'm surprised Sony's letting go on with season 2 at this point I cut my losses
this if season 2 doesn't bounce back and fast Sony's going to throw the towel immediately
cormack12
Gold Member
It will be cost analysis. There is probably a point where they feel they won't have to refund players. They are probably just trying to limp to that point, but also saying listen if you get more sales and players inbound there's a chance we keep it running.
The issue at the moment seems to be its difficult to get their own players who bought the game to return, and not enough players are being hooked into buying it after the changes.
The issue at the moment seems to be its difficult to get their own players who bought the game to return, and not enough players are being hooked into buying it after the changes.
Look at this old game and don't tell me it is not more fun to play than marathon:
Personally, I think this is exactly what is happening.
EPG_Every_Platform_Gamer
Member
Nailed it, Loving the game so far. Really do hope they don't cancel it. Don't think they will, bungie support their games.. but then again.. Sony owns them now and look at what they been doing lately. The game is incredible and DOES NOT deserve the hate it gets from the internet. Its a hard game with a high skill gap, but is worth every penny. People just expect it to be free to play. And agreed about single player, had it been given a single player mode to build the lore and give it a PVE only mode the game would of likely done even better. Modern gamers are fickle and go with the crowd and wind. Lacking any semblance of a critical thinking mind. I get some of the criticisms but the game is high quality through and through and if you love FPS games, and love playing extraction shooters or multiplayer fps then Marathon is a great fit. Have even bough the game on multiple platforms like we do with all of bungies games. They are pure class and make some of the greatest FPS games ever made. People can hate all the want, but they cant deny bungie games have incredible gameplay which is the ultimate metric. Just been struggling to play online, really need a squad to play it with. Its like a different beast of a game when you play with 2 other people who use mic and call outs and back you up. Such an incredible feeling to get in, grab high value loot and then make it out without dying. Coming across another group of runners is a buzz like no other game!
Darchaos
Gold Member
Weird, i get i higher buzz when i come around another group of players in Tarkov or Hunt.
Zacfoldor
Gold Member
The returning players as a group will have a higher bleed rate than the audience that never left so give it time to normalize. Last week was not a great week for extrapolations as we would see short term gains mollifying the data.
If they launch Destiny 2xpak content update same month as marathon s2 they will may cannibalize some marathon player pool and also there is always the random gaming event that could draw players from the game. Right now the game is a baby turtle trying to make its way to the water on a beach full of gulls.
If they launch Destiny 2
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ChorizoPicozo
Member
The situation is so bad that "helping" one will hurt the other. But both are in a very rough spot. If Bungie has any future one of the ganes need to be killed...or maybe both and make D3..... (but we all know they can't)
Moridianae
Member
To me, there is simply too much working against it.
There's the cheating which(I don't follow extensively) may be more rampant than expected.
There's the team-ups in solo queue Playlists which will really upset people.
There's established GAAS games getting ready to push out new content(Helldivers and ARC next week); I realize Helldivers isn't in the same genre, but folks talk about PvE and there is clearly a market for it.
The endgame is a gigantic sweat fest that is only open at specific times, resulting in most people either unable to compete *in* it, people getting bored of it as there is nothing else, or just not logging in at all until Cryo opens.
It's clearly not selling very well on consoles, moreso PC(and even that has dropped off) and the audience tends to be PC specific it seems.
Economy is in the crapper so people will be more reluctant to plunk down $40 for a game that doesn't seem to be very successful or looks to be frustrating to even play*
*Lots of people are more connected than ever via social media, so the problems of Marathon are more easily seen these days, true for any game out there*
And it's expected to make it until June or July with an ever-dwindling playerbase? I just don't see it happening.
It may not be a 1:1 comparison, but when you have a game that you put a lot of effort in and it needs work, community is speaking of what it needs, etc.
How is it that Crimson Desert is about to drop yet *another* patch that further improves the game within a month? I'm talking fixes, improvements, polish, features, feedback implementation, all of it.
What are they at? 4 patches? It shows care and more importantly, capabilities.
Not sure what Bungie is doing
There's the cheating which(I don't follow extensively) may be more rampant than expected.
There's the team-ups in solo queue Playlists which will really upset people.
There's established GAAS games getting ready to push out new content(Helldivers and ARC next week); I realize Helldivers isn't in the same genre, but folks talk about PvE and there is clearly a market for it.
The endgame is a gigantic sweat fest that is only open at specific times, resulting in most people either unable to compete *in* it, people getting bored of it as there is nothing else, or just not logging in at all until Cryo opens.
It's clearly not selling very well on consoles, moreso PC(and even that has dropped off) and the audience tends to be PC specific it seems.
Economy is in the crapper so people will be more reluctant to plunk down $40 for a game that doesn't seem to be very successful or looks to be frustrating to even play*
*Lots of people are more connected than ever via social media, so the problems of Marathon are more easily seen these days, true for any game out there*
And it's expected to make it until June or July with an ever-dwindling playerbase? I just don't see it happening.
It may not be a 1:1 comparison, but when you have a game that you put a lot of effort in and it needs work, community is speaking of what it needs, etc.
How is it that Crimson Desert is about to drop yet *another* patch that further improves the game within a month? I'm talking fixes, improvements, polish, features, feedback implementation, all of it.
What are they at? 4 patches? It shows care and more importantly, capabilities.
Not sure what Bungie is doing
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Timberwolf25
Member
The situation is so bad that "helping" one will hurt the other. But both are in a very rough spot. If Bungie has any future one of the ganes need to be killed...or maybe both and make D3..... (but we all know they can't)
For such a large studio, it seems at times that only 20% of the studio actually make games given how gracially slow they are to make games.
Since they can't seem to chew gum and walk at the same time, they should be working on Destiny 2 since that at least been proven to attract players in big numbers whereas Marathon hasn't.
It wouldn't bring me back to D2 though.
ValiantInstance
Member
It should drop below 20k peak this week. Wouldn't be surprised to see it go on sale as a final hail mary before Sony start winding down support.
PeteBull
Member
Yups, thats what im predicting too, at least 1 day of below 20k 24h ccu peak durning workdays, then it will bounce back to over 20k over weekend.
asdasdasdbb
Member
Bungie's not going to shut down Marathon any time soon. Giving up on Seasons.... yeah I could see that.
Now if Bungie itself is shut down...
ValiantInstance
Member
Effectively the same thing. Sony is not going to sign off on however much it costs to push out new content with less than 20k active players. From that point the game is dead.
HRK69
Member
They're much closer to a total shutdown than a pivot
Sony isn't going to just let them keep trying
falconhoof
Member
Some Cryo Love
Plague Doctor
Member
Some Cryo Love
New and casual player aren't touching this regardless.
We have the data that clearly shows this. These post also show they are experiencing retention problems.
The best Bungie can do is pulling a FF14 Realm Reborn scenario where they re-release this game fundamentally changed and hope to god Sony let's them.
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asdasdasdbb
Member
As long as Destiny and Destiny 2 are still running... it's not going to be that expensive to keep Marathon up. Could up the PvE aspect.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Nothing has changed on the Marathon dev team. Morale is good, according to Paul Tassi.
Nobody in charge of the game is as dramatic and overreactive as the people in this thread.
StreetsofBeige
Member
Some ballpark math. Yesterday's peak 24.1k.
10 am completed hour 14.8k.
Yesterday 14.5k (ended at 24.1k), last Sunday (pre patch) 17k (ended at 25k). Sundays end lower than Saturdays as the peak is often hit in late afternoon (Euro peak hours).
So I dont think it'll hold up to a +2% gain by end of day. I'll take a stab and say it ends about 22.5 to 23k.
10 am completed hour 14.8k.
Yesterday 14.5k (ended at 24.1k), last Sunday (pre patch) 17k (ended at 25k). Sundays end lower than Saturdays as the peak is often hit in late afternoon (Euro peak hours).
So I dont think it'll hold up to a +2% gain by end of day. I'll take a stab and say it ends about 22.5 to 23k.
falconhoof
Member
I think some interesting analysis could be done around the DAU
Game is currently holding ~100 in the list so I had a browse up the table and noted that Phas was at DAU 58 but with somewhat similar CCU numbers.
It could be that the DAU charts are very close, but if that were the case then I'd expect we'd see games bounce up and down them a lot, yet we don't, so I presume that the numbers are stable. I'm also presuming that though we aren't exposed to the actual DAU figures, they are coming from a valid source, if not then this is all moot.
Marathon sits right near Lethal Company, which has a much lower CCU chart. So I'm trying to figure out what to read from this. I guess, Lethal Company is cycling a lot more players over shorter stints of play. Lots of people enjoying a 20 blast, where as Marathon is harboring the sweats who are spending longer stints of stabbing each other in the back to trade Nerf guns.
Game is currently holding ~100 in the list so I had a browse up the table and noted that Phas was at DAU 58 but with somewhat similar CCU numbers.
It could be that the DAU charts are very close, but if that were the case then I'd expect we'd see games bounce up and down them a lot, yet we don't, so I presume that the numbers are stable. I'm also presuming that though we aren't exposed to the actual DAU figures, they are coming from a valid source, if not then this is all moot.
Marathon sits right near Lethal Company, which has a much lower CCU chart. So I'm trying to figure out what to read from this. I guess, Lethal Company is cycling a lot more players over shorter stints of play. Lots of people enjoying a 20 blast, where as Marathon is harboring the sweats who are spending longer stints of stabbing each other in the back to trade Nerf guns.
StreetsofBeige
Member
Hahaha. Knew it right from launch.
Funny how the curb stompers always want to play in the random mixed lobbies. Marathon makes it worse because it involves stacked loadouts and robbing other people's inventory. All this dies is make the divide even greater!
Thats why Bungie doesnt want SBMM. The game has so few players, it'll piss off the core players who play extraction games. So if that means casuals get pushed out, that's the focus. For a mainstream game with tons of gamers and modes then they'd add SBMM to appease the massive amounts of casual gamers.
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Moridianae
Member
That will never happen, especially under Sony's budget-conscious eye. The story of Final Fantasy XIV is an outlier in gaming history.
They literally kept the game alive with a new director(Yoshi P) to try and salvage and improve what was there while he simultaneously rebuilt the ENTIRE game at at the same time.
It was a massive financial gamble that ended up paying off.
Final Fantasy XIV, to this day, has a *permanent* subscription fee discount for anyone who played the original game for a certain amount of time, altered cutscenes for that person's character that ties into the original game's story, and special items unattainable by anyone else.
StreetsofBeige
Member
I'm too lazy to feel like analyzing CCU and DAU cross analysis.I think some interesting analysis could be done around the DAU
Game is currently holding ~100 in the list so I had a browse up the table and noted that Phas was at DAU 58 but with somewhat similar CCU numbers.
It could be that the DAU charts are very close, but if that were the case then I'd expect we'd see games bounce up and down them a lot, yet we don't, so I presume that the numbers are stable. I'm also presuming that though we aren't exposed to the actual DAU figures, they are coming from a valid source, if not then this is all moot.
Marathon sits right near Lethal Company, which has a much lower CCU chart. So I'm trying to figure out what to read from this. I guess, Lethal Company is cycling a lot more players over shorter stints of play. Lots of people enjoying a 20 blast, where as Marathon is harboring the sweats who are spending longer stints of stabbing each other in the back to trade Nerf guns.
But it should be directionally doable to see which games have gamers playing more game time than others even if DAU is a ranking #. So a game with lots of CCU but crap DAU would mean a small set of core gamers play a lot per day holding it up. A game with crap CCU and lots of DAU means they are either very spread out during 24H and/or lots of gamers log in but play little and bounce off fast.
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