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[StreetsofBeige]

does Sony have an idea what the Xbox PlayStation numbers are and they're better than the PC numbers?
because that is the only reason I can figure we have had the announcement of a shutdown yet

They surely know. All any of us know are based on those research site estimates saying (a couple weeks ago) sales are 1.2M, split 70% PC, 20% PS, 10% Xbox. And Gamalytics also estimated PC sales at a similar 800k-ish number.

There is no way console sales are better than PC. Right off the bat people posted charts showing PS rankings were crap, and Xbox was so low it was I think rank 70. it's now past rank 100 by now as per other gamers doing a check. I did a check too way back on Xbox's site and it was 80th I think. It was so low I thought the site hadnt updated it yet with a Marathon icon. But online, their list goes in rows of 5 games per row. I had to go to row 16 I think and there it finally was.

PC Steam sales were actually pretty good. I think it was top 5 in sales for a week or two before spiraling down since. But at the beginning, I'm pretty sure the top dogs were CS2, PUBG, Slay th Spire 2.... and around there Marathon started high. None of the console data known had Marathion anywhere close to how high it did on Steam.

 

[BigBeauford]

oof I better get my blasts in while I can still blast

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Shortest post-mortem ever:

I think Bungie made a lot of mistakes when deciding to make this game but their biggest mistake was believing their name and brand alone could make extraction shooter into a mainstream genre

 

[RafterXL]

Dude the game is currently struggling to hit 20k.

It's cooked.

And it hasn't even hit the first wipe.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

And it hasn't even hit the first wipe.

Do other extraction games have season wipes? If they do, does the gamer base tank?

 

[RafterXL]

Do other extraction games have season wipes? If they do, does the gamer base tank?

Other than Tarkov I'm not sure how many extraction games have it, but a lot of games, in general, have them, and the first wipe always filters out a bunch of people who thought they'd be ok with it until it happens.

Marathon's population is so low those people might already be gone, but it's going to be interesting to see.

 

[Mengy]

Do other extraction games have season wipes? If they do, does the gamer base tank?

Arc Raiders has wipes every few months, but they are optional, you only wipe if you want to. Marathon forces you to wipe and lose it all.

 

[Raven117]

Eff wiping man. I guess if that's what the fanbase is used to. And I can understand like a reset of capped currencies or something. But the rest. No way.

 

[Sakura]

Concord says hi

Barely anybody bought Concord so it was probably an easy decision to do refunds.

 

[falconhoof]

Wow, the game just managed to scrape into the 25K CCU mark.

Today looked like a real struggle for the game. Is this the result of duos being turned off or is something else happening?

 

[Timberwolf25]

Wow, the game just managed to scrape into the 25K CCU mark.

Today looked like a real struggle for the game. Is this the result of duos being turned off or is something else happening?

Better than yesterday? Wasn't yesterday sub 20K?

 

[StreetsofBeige]

10 pm completed hour CCU
All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 25.4k is -62.9k or -71%

Today vs yesterday: 25.4k vs 27.7k (-2.3k or -8%)

Yesterday's low 8k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 7.4k

Wed vs Wed: 25.4k vs 32.9k (-7.5k or -23%)

The huge drops from earlier today including Asian/Aussie hours -15%+ vs Monday (yesterday servers down in the morning) and today's Euro peak at -9% held up bad for the US peak at -8%. The -8% drop from a boring weekday to another is the biggest % drop the game has had that isnt a Sunday to Monday drop.

We'll see how cryo Thursday does. Cryo day one's have always had a positive gain.

Also, the Asian/Aussie late night lows have been accelerating declines. It might drop below 7k. But pending how many gamers at that time are even playing there it might level out as that number might be US/Euro gamers playing at odd hours. It might get to a low point Asian/Aussie player base gets entirely wiped out to a handful of gamers. Nobody knows, except at those early hours at 6-9 am EST, it's peak hours there and the CCU range has bottomed out to 8-11k. There might only be a couple thousand gamers playing there at that time.

Alternate method to estimate peaks and valleys (ballpark ratios)
On normal weekdays, 3:1. For example, a peak 30k will have a low of 10k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1

Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users 75
Global Top Sellers 49
Weekly Top Sellers 41 ending Apr 7 (was 32 last week)
Top Rated Games 5,476 (84.69%)

 

[falconhoof]

Better than yesterday? Wasn't yesterday sub 20K?

27.6k yesterday

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

This will be a tough one to fix with a simple patch overnight

 

[StreetsofBeige]

This will be a tough one to fix with a simple patch overnight

You never know. Maybe Bungie has been banning tons of cheaters today, hence the abnormally steep CCU drop. A drop of -8% from normal weekday to weekday has never been done until today.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

You never know. Maybe Bungie has been banning tons of cheaters today, hence the abnormally steep CCU drop. A drop of -8% from normal weekday to weekday has never been done until today.

Given there where cheaters since the open beta.. And this:

We could be witnessing the final weeks for marathon; sentiment around the game becoming overwhelming negative (shills and damage Control from media finally going extinct).... This seems like an issue way more complex and sophisticated that requires more than just banning players (assuming they are even able to do that in a systematic and reliable way)

I can see a refund system been exploited, broken at release. The game as a piece of software could very well be completly screwed against cheaters

I wonder if that canceled GDC talk had some relation to this issue.

 

[SmokSmog]

You guys were too focused on Marathon and you missed yet another Concord.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

^ Never even heard of it. At least the studio got the name right...... Save Us!

Over the next year or two, might be an onslaught of junky extraction games jumping onto the trend. Never doubt game studios copycatting each other. They love it.

Never played these modes. In fact I totally forgot about them, but Division Dark Zone and COD had DMZ, both were extraction modes. You never hear about them. I guess they were simplified or just buried with the rest of the game?

 

[Dorfdad]

This will be a tough one to fix with a simple patch overnight

Yeah fuck that! I got 1-2 hours most nights to game and having all my progress and loot ruined by these kinds of people just kills gaming for me. Been getting back into more console and single player games for my fun anymore.

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

This will be a tough one to fix with a simple patch overnight

Lmao, jfc you couldn't pay me to play that fawking game. I'd quit gaming before I played a game where not only is it infested with cheaters you lose hours of time... Hahaha not a chance in hell

 

[cormack12]

This will be a tough one to fix with a simple patch overnight

Here I was feeling PC players had an advantage because of Mouse/Keyboard. When they had a bigger advantage with hacks.

 

[SmokSmog]

It's trending -7.5% vs yesterday (9AM CET), we will hit sub 8K today.

 

[Forth]

As much as I love this game, I've come to accept that it's dead and will be shut down soon.
I honestly have no idea how they can bring back numbers without taking it down and releasing a 2.0 version with big changes.
But I don't think Bungie are the team to do that, that would need crunch development time and hard challenges that just wouldn't accept and accomplish.

 

[Ribi]

You guys were too focused on Marathon and you missed yet another Concord.

Not even the best cube game

 

[Gamer132]

https://www.pcgamer.com/games/actio...ting-down-just-three-weeks-after-it-launched/

 

[GooseMan69]

Oh wow, just checked in on this thread for the first time in awhile and it's not looking good. It's bleeding players at a consistent rate. I thought this would hold on for a year or so before flaming out but now I'm not sure it will make it to summer.

The big takeaway is that it's not necessarily a broken game. By most accounts it mostly achieves the vision laid out by the devs. What we're seeing is simply a widespread rejection of GAAS. You know it's bad when even Fortnite is starting to lose its foothold within mainstream pop culture.

Genuinely might be witnessing a turning of the tides in real time. Resident Evil 9 and Crinson Desert are smashing the charts while live service titles are getting pulled off life support within mere months.

Have to wonder what happens with that Horizon game. There's no way someone isn't sounding the alarm. It's getting really hard to ignore the evidence that the live service dragon is a mythical creature at this point.

The short term consequences of the GAAS bubble popping will be harsh but I think nature will start healing itself so to speak.

 

[zaga]

As much as I love this game, I've come to accept that it's dead and will be shut down soon.
I honestly have no idea how they can bring back numbers without taking it down and releasing a 2.0 version with big changes.
But I don't think Bungie are the team to do that, that would need crunch development time and hard challenges that just wouldn't accept and accomplish.

Their UESC robot AI is very good so probably they could introduce AI trios. So the runners are AI too, when human teams can't be found.

Then people could play the "same game" but not worry so much about low playerbase or about cheaters.

You could also play a singleplayer or co-op game this way, but still face the threat of other runners.

 

[ahtlas7]

This will be a tough one to fix with a simple patch overnight

Exactly why I don't play these games. Imagine paying to play this shit.

 

[Forth]

Their UESC robot AI is very good so probably they could introduce AI trios. So the runners are AI too, when human teams can't be found.

Then people could play the "same game" but not worry so much about low playerbase or about cheaters.

You could also play a singleplayer or co-op game this way, but still face the threat of other runners.

I actually think that this will be the next step.
It will keep me busy for a while before the AI exploits appear and then ruin the economy.

 

[Bernardougf]

Oh wow, just checked in on this thread for the first time in awhile and it's not looking good. It's bleeding players at a consistent rate. I thought this would hold on for a year or so before flaming out but now I'm not sure it will make it to summer.

The big takeaway is that it's not necessarily a broken game. By most accounts it mostly achieves the vision laid out by the devs. What we're seeing is simply a widespread rejection of GAAS. You know it's bad when even Fortnite is starting to lose its foothold within mainstream pop culture.

Genuinely might be witnessing a turning of the tides in real time. Resident Evil 9 and Crinson Desert are smashing the charts while live service titles are getting pulled off life support within mere months.

Have to wonder what happens with that Horizon game. There's no way someone isn't sounding the alarm. It's getting really hard to ignore the evidence that the live service dragon is a mythical creature at this point.

The short term consequences of the GAAS bubble popping will be harsh but I think nature will start healing itself so to speak.

I dont think GaaS is slowing down, its just that this market is easily saturated, most people that play gaas has their favorite one and stick mostly to it, sure a new one like Arc raiders can skip trough the cracks but if you throw 3 new AAA gaas on the market at the same time at the same genre maybe one will succeed, maybe none. Its a very risky market it seems, much more than its fans like to admit, "gaas its the future" bullshit, sure gazillions of players play FIFA, fortnite and roblox, so gaas is the most played genre at steam charts, that dosent mean jack shit for new games trying to steal those players attention.

And Fortnite, well kids that grew up with it are getting older and noping out, so it has to gain new players as it looses the old ones, maybe that's whats happening? Dont know very much about it honestly.

 

[OuterLimits]

Oh wow, just checked in on this thread for the first time in awhile and it's not looking good. It's bleeding players at a consistent rate. I thought this would hold on for a year or so before flaming out but now I'm not sure it will make it to summer.

The big takeaway is that it's not necessarily a broken game. By most accounts it mostly achieves the vision laid out by the devs. What we're seeing is simply a widespread rejection of GAAS. You know it's bad when even Fortnite is starting to lose its foothold within mainstream pop culture.

Genuinely might be witnessing a turning of the tides in real time. Resident Evil 9 and Crinson Desert are smashing the charts while live service titles are getting pulled off life support within mere months.

Have to wonder what happens with that Horizon game. There's no way someone isn't sounding the alarm. It's getting really hard to ignore the evidence that the live service dragon is a mythical creature at this point.

The short term consequences of the GAAS bubble popping will be harsh but I think nature will start healing itself so to speak.

It's great that some single player games are doing well, but the majority of games in the top 20, heck even top 50 are online multi-player games.

Marathon itself now though is only spending a few hours each day in top 50. Next week the low points may be outside the top 150 even.

Cryo will give it a boost today and may be the last chance of getting above 30k for awhile.

 

[Mephisto40]

Shortest post-mortem ever:

I think Bungie made a lot of mistakes when deciding to make this game but their biggest mistake was believing their name and brand alone could make extraction shooter into a mainstream genre

If a third party indy studio made this game I think it would have actually done better

 

[pepeno]

Shortest post-mortem ever:

I think Bungie made a lot of mistakes when deciding to make this game but their biggest mistake was believing their name and brand alone could make extraction shooter into a mainstream genre

Prime Bungie would make this work:
- playtested to hell for months after finishing game before release so even picking up items is fun as hell
- meaty single player campaign probably with coop up to 4 people that slowly teaches you rules of extraction.
- 2 weeks after launch multiplayer launch that ties into single player campaign (HOLY SHIT this is just 60$ ????!!!!)
- month after that forge so that players could create their own maps, best ones introduced into game, some prizes

SadBanana Current Bungie:
- Lauches multiplayer game with 3 maps.
- Can't decide if this is pvp or pve
- Probably will cut most of the content either way after a year or two so no need to play it
- Will introduce 12 different currencies and premium shop store.
- Story on loading screens :lol:
- Here's nice video of what story is about, no video in game look on youtube.
- You have to pay 40$-60$ every 3-4 months to continue play. Abhorent ads to pay 40-60$ if you don't pay.


Bungie: "Why aren't everyone playing my game ?"


Bungie is the only studio right now that releases A games on AAAA budget.

 

[pepeno]

Well, looks like my initial prediction about 3-4 weeks before they will shut it down will be true. 7900 lowest so far. Tomorrow is friday so i expect some improvement but considering how saturday/sunday went last time I fully expect game to hit 12-13-14k on monday at peak probably 5k low.

At 10k players they will be running deeply in red for militance of this game let alone development of new content. So not only they are still in red after 40$ sales on it but also red on maintain. Cryo was supposed to be big but it wasn't, their next content drop is nothing interesting. Next season is supposed to be in 2 months. On consoles it's out of top100 played so probably even worse than steam.

I wonder what i happening right now in bungie. Red alarms should be already on release day when it didn't cross 100k. Now probably whole thing is on fire. Destiny2 can't support whole studio and marathon flopped harder than anyone predicted.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Bottomed at 7,510 so far. Wow.

Rebounding a bit now. Damn. My prediction of hitting the 7.4k range off by 11 people.

 

[Ogbert]

Bottomed at 7,510 so far. Wow.

Rebounding a bit now. Damn. My prediction of hitting the 7.4k range off by 11 people.

And by the looks of it, over 10% of that number are cheaters.

 

[Von Hugh]

"Let's make a game which will have 6 or 7 thousand players per day, kids seem to love those numbers"

 

[Moridianae]

I think what is happening is a combination of the game just not having enough meat on the bones and limiting Cryo to a weekend only deal.

It's similar to how Final Fantasy XIV was(and may still be, though FFXIV has way more content outside of what I'm talking about) where the currency you could earn to get the major gear was capped at 250 per week *and* one piece a week from the raid(s), so people logged in to do that and "See ya next week".

Kinda the same with Cryo, but this population is small.

There's also the cheater issue, which news travels fast and that can affect numbers also. It could also be that cheating is far more rampant and people are fed up with it.

Also--not a great game for newcomers and if all that remains is a hard-core playerbase(i.e. sweats), it doesn't make for good growth.

Also, the sweats get bored quickly if they find themselves fighting the same people, or no one, or no newbies to bully and move on to the next game on their list.

 

[Forth]

Personally I absolutely love the game and think it's one of the best MP games released in the last twenty years.
But this is why I'm falling off it, the maps are to small and really, really needed to be larger but Bungie's insistence that it be PVP first is why they are small.
The queue times are to long and that fucking seizure inducing loading screen is an absolute disaster.
I really thought Bungie would revolutionise the extraction genre with maps that would constantly evolve with changing parameters and events to keep us logging n to see what's changed but they've just released another extraction shooter that doesn't do anything new.
Bungie are meant to be the team that would pull this off but I really do believe that there is something seriously wrong with Bungie and I honestly couldn't give a rats ass if they were shut down tomorrow.
It's the sole definition of the Emperor's New Clothes.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

We could be witnessing the final weeks for marathon; sentiment around the game becoming overwhelming negative (shills and damage Control from media finally going extinct).... This seems like an issue way more complex and sophisticated that requires more than just banning players (assuming they are even able to do that in a systematic and reliable way)

We've reached the apathy stage which is the worst place for Marathon to be in.

 

[Pollux]

Bottomed at 7,510 so far. Wow.

Rebounding a bit now. Damn. My prediction of hitting the 7.4k range off by 11 people.

You've been Nostra-fuckin-domus this entire time - kudos to you.

 

[diffusionx]

Oh wow, just checked in on this thread for the first time in awhile and it's not looking good. It's bleeding players at a consistent rate. I thought this would hold on for a year or so before flaming out but now I'm not sure it will make it to summer.

The big takeaway is that it's not necessarily a broken game. By most accounts it mostly achieves the vision laid out by the devs. What we're seeing is simply a widespread rejection of GAAS. You know it's bad when even Fortnite is starting to lose its foothold within mainstream pop culture.

Genuinely might be witnessing a turning of the tides in real time. Resident Evil 9 and Crinson Desert are smashing the charts while live service titles are getting pulled off life support within mere months.

Have to wonder what happens with that Horizon game. There's no way someone isn't sounding the alarm. It's getting really hard to ignore the evidence that the live service dragon is a mythical creature at this point.

The short term consequences of the GAAS bubble popping will be harsh but I think nature will start healing itself so to speak.

Someone mentioned it on here, people are getting tired of being sold a business model wrapped up in a game.

Multiplayer games will always be popular! But this will not. I stopped playing COD when I looked at the battle pass and realized it was endless AI slop, they can't even pay a human to make their digital trinkets anymore. When you feel like you need to log into the game to stay on the hamster wheel, at some point you just realize it makes more sense to hop off and buy a full game like resident evil and enjoy it.

 

[kpopSuperstar]

I wonder how long Bungie can wait before they have to announce some big change, they have to do something, and it can't be free-to-play and it has to remove the hardcore stigma of the game and make it welcoming.

Making a game for the hardcore failed and they gotta stop appealing to them. I wonder if the logic was that Tarkov is hardcore and that this is what people in this genre want.

 

[Zacfoldor]

As much as I love this game, I've come to accept that it's dead and will be shut down soon.
I honestly have no idea how they can bring back numbers without taking it down and releasing a 2.0 version with big changes.
But I don't think Bungie are the team to do that, that would need crunch development time and hard challenges that just wouldn't accept and accomplish.

Put out a super sexy female male gaze misogynistic air headed pig tailed shell and a bunch of bikini items on the shop to buy. Make that pink panther its pet and make them do poses together. Add a photo booth mode and lots of win animations for her.

Use the time this buys you to add a single player campaign.

In the campaign make it like Halo and make all the characters nearly nude female AI tomboys like Cortana and let me buy gifts in the shop to give them and win their affection. Better yet, make them real AI llms and let me have non-filtered chat with them in game during rounds. I think allowing someone to hide inside a building and watch while chatting with a llm would basically be a new form of gameplay in game. You could watch the match hidden, chat with your AI goons and enjoy watching everyone else get got outside, from the safety of a super secret hiding spot. Then just let the time tick away until the match ends. That's golden gameplay. I could do that for days straight.

Now we got a stew going. I'm really liking my plan to save Marathon. The shell needs at least 3 booty focused twerk dances, a tit slider, and a birthing-hip slider at launch. Ya know, like overwatch/marvel rivals, ect.

 

[SnapShot]

Everyone probably already reached Season level 100, completed all Liason contracts and saw everything the game has to offer, now question is how long game's going to hold up and how much future updates and content drops will bring or change

 

[Darchaos]

Everyone probably already reached Season level 100, completed all Liason contracts and saw everything the game has to offer, now question is how long game's going to hold up and how much future updates and content drops will bring or change

Who is everyone? The drop of players has been constant since day 1, so where is the drop off starting for people who has done everything?

 

[SnapShot]

Who is everyone? The drop of players has been constant since day 1, so where is the drop off starting for people who has done everything?

Spitballing it, I'm not one of the shareholders, bungie devs or sony board of directors members no one knows what their data and way of measuring things looks like

 

[Roman Empire]

Me watching that 3% daily player drop off.

Sorry, but Bungie is fucked.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

Personally I absolutely love the game and think it's one of the best MP games released in the last twenty years.
But this is why I'm falling off it, the maps are to small and really, really needed to be larger but Bungie's insistence that it be PVP first is why they are small.
The queue times are to long and that fucking seizure inducing loading screen is an absolute disaster.
I really thought Bungie would revolutionise the extraction genre with maps that would constantly evolve with changing parameters and events to keep us logging n to see what's changed but they've just released another extraction shooter that doesn't do anything new.
Bungie are meant to be the team that would pull this off but I really do believe that there is something seriously wrong with Bungie and I honestly couldn't give a rats ass if they were shut down tomorrow.
It's the sole definition of the Emperor's New Clothes.

I don't blame anyone who loves any game and hope for people like yourself they figure out how to save this game.

Heck I daily play World of Tanks and this morning on the North America server there were only 2k players so I would never judge someone liking a game

 

[ValiantInstance]

We know the majority of the player base is on pc, so when does Sony pull the plug? I'd say when the game falls below 20k peak they will be considering moving the development team down to a skeleton crew.