Support NeoGAF

[Men_in_Boxes]

Your views on this game really fell off a cliff. From a mario 64 moment to "it can survive 6 months"

Mario 64 moment was attached to ARC Raiders, not Marathon.

Get it right, brother!

Probably but if the user base collapses then might decide to pull the plug sooner. That's what happened to highguard.

True, but Marathon has way better metrics than Highguard. Marathon is also a way bigger canvas to play with. It was much harder to theorize how Highguard could have turned things around.

They'll make it F2P before shutting it down. On the bright side, at least they can take the W that Marathon has already outperformed both Concord and Highguard.

The F2P idea is uninteresting to me because you're pulling from people who are way less interested & invested in the game.

If people who bought Marathon are quitting at a 20% clip each week, the F2P players are going to drop it faster. They have to fix the fundamental problem with the game first.

 

[Guilty_AI]

Mario 64 moment was attached to ARC Raiders, not Marathon.

Get it right, brother!

? You attached it to extraction shooters didn't you? Something about it being the genre of the future or ford production lines or whatever it is you usually say

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

? You attached it to extraction shooters didn't you? Something about it being the genre of the future or ford production lines or whatever it is you usually say

I basically nailed that too.

Thread 'Predicting the Extraction Shooter market - How big will the genre be by late 2026?'

Dec 17, 2024

The premise of this thread is to gauge NeoGAFs ability to predict the market trend of one of the most fascinating genres in all of gaming...the Extraction Shooter. This thread will act as a time capsule, to be unearthed on Tuesday, December 17th, 2026.

WHERE IS THE GENRE TODAY?

Today, there are 3 titles that comprise the bulk of the Extraction Shooter market. Escape from Tarkov, Hunt Showdown, and Dark and Darker.

Escape from Tarkov - (e) 50k average CCU on game launcher
Hunt: Showdown - 12k average CCU on Steam, (e) 8k average CCU on console
Dark and Darker - 9k average CCU on...

• Men_in_Boxes
• Replies: 43
• Forum: Gaming Discussion

• 
• 
• 

 

[KimDongHwan]

I think this model where Sony goes "all in" in one direction to hit jackpot might not be a good model for innovation. AFAIK this (extraction shooters) and many many many other addictive game modes have always come from smaller initiatives inside a bigger game. Sony should play their strength by have a crazy good single player and then start adding smaller multiplayers modes to and see what sticks with people instead of forcing some other "all in" mode. Example: instead of having that new Horizon game, release like Horizon 3 and inside a mini co-op monster hunter style mode and see if people actually like it and engage with it, then expand on it.

 

[AmuroChan]

I think this model where Sony goes "all in" in one direction to hit jackpot might not be a good model for innovation. AFAIK this (extraction shooters) and many many many other addictive game modes have always come from smaller initiatives inside a bigger game. Sony should play their strength by have a crazy good single player and then start adding smaller multiplayers modes to and see what sticks with people instead of forcing some other "all in" mode. Example: instead of having that new Horizon game, release like Horizon 3 and inside a mini co-op monster hunter style mode and see if people actually like it and engage with it, then expand on it.

That's what they did with Factions. Factions was a mp mode for TLOU1. It became surprisingly popular and they decided to expand the scope and make it into its own thing. It's a shame they canceled it because I would've wanted to see how they built on Factions 1.

 

[Guilty_AI]

I basically nailed that too.

Thread 'Predicting the Extraction Shooter market - How big will the genre be by late 2026?'

Dec 17, 2024

The premise of this thread is to gauge NeoGAFs ability to predict the market trend of one of the most fascinating genres in all of gaming...the Extraction Shooter. This thread will act as a time capsule, to be unearthed on Tuesday, December 17th, 2026.

WHERE IS THE GENRE TODAY?

Today, there are 3 titles that comprise the bulk of the Extraction Shooter market. Escape from Tarkov, Hunt Showdown, and Dark and Darker.

Escape from Tarkov - (e) 50k average CCU on game launcher
Hunt: Showdown - 12k average CCU on Steam, (e) 8k average CCU on console
Dark and Darker - 9k average CCU on...

• Men_in_Boxes
• Replies: 43
• Forum: Gaming Discussion

• 
• 
• 

So basically the entire genre barely makes it into mainstream being carried by ARC. Excelent mario 64 moment.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

So basically the entire genre barely makes it into mainstream being carried by ARC. Excelent mario 64 moment.

It isn't done growing either. This is just the beginning. Tons of unexplored creative space to the left of ARC Raiders that'll do great commercially.

 

[Guilty_AI]

It isn't done growing either. This is just the beginning.

More like the beginning of the end if Marathon is any indication.

Tons of unexplored creative space to the left of ARC Raiders that'll do great commercially.

You can't make this genre popular without some fundamental core changes. ARC itself did a lot of "casual"-ning to make the game more accessible.

 

[Hero_Select]

It isn't done growing either. This is just the beginning. Tons of unexplored creative space to the left of ARC Raiders that'll do great commercially.

Yeah this is Fairgame$ moment to shine....

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

You can't make this genre popular without some fundamental core changes. ARC itself did a lot of "casual"-ning to make the game more accessible.

ARC Raiders sure did great. The core fundementals of the genre are what make it such a strong future forward genre. Progression, risk, and social interactivity...it takes the best parts of videogames and builds a perfect structure.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Yeah this is Fairgame$ moment to shine...

Will be fascinating to see the gameplay reveal. Marathon is definitely informing me of things I'm hoping they avoid. Plus, it'll be interesting to see what differentiates it from Marathon as I assume most of you view them similarly at this point.

Example: I hope there's waaaaay stronger asymmetry in character classes / playstyle.

 

[diffusionx]

I think this model where Sony goes "all in" in one direction to hit jackpot might not be a good model for innovation. AFAIK this (extraction shooters) and many many many other addictive game modes have always come from smaller initiatives inside a bigger game. Sony should play their strength by have a crazy good single player and then start adding smaller multiplayers modes to and see what sticks with people instead of forcing some other "all in" mode. Example: instead of having that new Horizon game, release like Horizon 3 and inside a mini co-op monster hunter style mode and see if people actually like it and engage with it, then expand on it.

What has more players on PSN right now, Yotei Legends or Marathon. My guess is Yotei Legends and it's probably not close.

If Marathon goes down I also think Fairgame and maybe even Horizon will be gone. Actually I don't know why Fairgame is still around.

 

[Guilty_AI]

I think this model where Sony goes "all in" in one direction to hit jackpot might not be a good model for innovation. AFAIK this (extraction shooters) and many many many other addictive game modes have always come from smaller initiatives inside a bigger game. Sony should play their strength by have a crazy good single player and then start adding smaller multiplayers modes to and see what sticks with people instead of forcing some other "all in" mode. Example: instead of having that new Horizon game, release like Horizon 3 and inside a mini co-op monster hunter style mode and see if people actually like it and engage with it, then expand on it.

This. Many of the current popular mp games started off as some smaller mode inside or branching off a single player game. GTA, COD, Minecraft, Diablo, Counter Strike (came from Half Life), Dota2 (originally from warcraft 3)...

 

[OuterLimits]

The game seems to be entirely reliant on the U.S. now to have a somewhat decent level of concurrent players. Around 6 to 8 hours a day it plunges out of the top 100.

The number of players on console are likely dismal at this point.

 

[Tams]

Sony should have just bought Planetside back and set Bungie loose on it.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Imagine being men in boxes seeking validation for his misguided views in a thread that exposes how wrong he has been.... Only someone as delulu as him can be this clueless

 

[Plague Doctor]

 

[Roman Empire]

I imagine that must be rough for content creators who jumped from Destiny 2 to this. Engagement metrics all show considerable loss of interest, especially after Crimson Desert took the spotlight for good and bad press. The worst thing that can happen to this game is to be thrown into irrelevancy.

Last wednesday was the day Marathon dropped from 40k players, and yesterday's peak was 33k. Keeping this pace and we hitting the below 30k before the end of the week.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

12 pm completed hour. Make note it was server down day yesterday morning, so it might had been a bit low as gamers need to ramp it back up.

Compared to yesterday (Wed vs Tue): 18.4k vs 19.6k (-1.2k or -6%).

Yesterday's peak was 33.8k. If the rate holds, the peak tonight will be 31.8k.

Yesterday's low was 10.5k. If the rate holds, the low tonight will be 9.9k.

Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users 59
Global Top Sellers 35
Weekly Top Sellers 32 (was 26 last week)

 

[falconhoof]

Breaking through the 9k low barrier tonight will be a new milestone. Reaching the four figure zone.

I haven't been watching much of the playerbase over the last week. I'm wondering if the game is going to hit (or is hitting) the sweaty out sweating the not quite as sweaty.

The cost of the lose everything extraction game is that loses hit harder. This isn't CoD where you just jump back in for another round, you lose progress. It's Everquest's losing levels, but worse because the otherside of it is someone's gain. The positive for one player is the negative for another.

It's the heart of the extraction genre, it's why it's a sweat fest, it's why it's a niche.

I'm fine with losing progress and content in a game, but the extraction genre didn't appeal to me in the way that Dayz did (I've put a lot of hours in to that game) because the PvE and PvP in Dayz was further apart, and often came with more of a natural opt in thanks to the pace and map size. Dayz had the thrill of knowing you could get killed and lose it all, where as extraction games are almost guaranteed you'll be put into a situation where one person/group will get killed and lose it all. A Sauna for the sweat lovers.

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

Even Taul Passi is saying he's bouncing

 

[Dr. Samuel Hayden]

Even Taul Passi is saying he's bouncing

Welcome to the chud club, Paul

 

[falconhoof]

Dunno if Tarkov still has its own launcher and therefore Steam numbers don't reflect the true size of the player base, but from this view it looks like Marathon is on that convergence towards the reality of a hardcore extraction shooter niche.

 

[Dr. Samuel Hayden]

I think it's starting to set in for these journos.

 

[BennyBlanco]

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Even Taul Passi is saying he's bouncing

With him and Gamespot (finally) acknowledging the game is in an unhealthy state, it's joever...

 

[Pollux]

I think it's starting to set in for these journos.

This video is honestly pathetic. This is why games journalism is a complete joke.

 

[TheLikou]

I think it's starting to set in for these journos.

The money from the companies dried out, now it's time to appease to the public for the views.

 

[Conflict NZ]

I think it's starting to set in for these journos.

Holy shit, this is how you know it's the beginning of the end. Can't believe a mainstream outlet is pouring gasoline on the death spiral.

 

[Avid Reading Horse]

Even Taul Passi is saying he's bouncing

8:33 he is HAVING A BLAST

Spoiler

with Crimson Desert

 

[Timberwolf25]

Sony was going to announce the shutdown of Marathon today, but felt that it would be taken as an April Fools joke so will announce it sometime later in the future.
Source: redacted

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

The speaker concludes that while the Marathon update brings positive changes for the game—such as improved loot quality and more engaging gameplay for trios—it introduces a questionable and potentially challenging environment for solo players. (3:17 - 4:49, 14:11 - 15:16).

Ultimately, the host expresses that the changes create a polarized experience:

• For Trios: The update is viewed as a significant success that provides better incentives and makes Outpost a more rewarding map to play. (14:26 - 15:16).
• For Solos: It creates a steeper, more resource-heavy barrier to entry that requires high levels of skill to navigate effectively due to increased bot density and more complex vault access requirements. (6:38 - 8:36, 12:30 - 13:47).

The speaker emphasizes the importance of community discussion regarding these balance changes and encourages viewers to share their own experiences and opinions in the comments section. (14:17 - 15:45).



as stated...they/them would be changing shit out of desperation.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

5 pm EST completed hour
(All time peak was launch day 88k)

Compared to yesterday (Wed vs Tue): 25.5k vs 26.9k (-1.4k or -5%)

Yesterday's peak 33.8k. If the rate holds, peak tonight will be 32.1k

Yesterday's low 10.5k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 10k

Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users 59
Global Top Sellers 34
Weekly Top Sellers 32 (was 26 last week)

 

[Dr. Samuel Hayden]

 

[Plague Doctor]

Purple place is a totally normal forum that devs and industry professionals proudly and openly go to.

Not filled with unhinged and mentally deranged individuals at all.

Don't think I ever heard someone calling for "Nuremberg style trials" for discussing publically available information.

So... they want it to be a crime to <checks notes> "dissuade potential players" by talking about its CCU? And are they on the side of lack of business transparency for the consumer to protect billion dollar corporations?

How very, very progressive of them.

 

[SatansReverence]

Post by Women_in_Boxes?

 

[Guilty_AI]

Post by Women_in_Boxes?

To his credit, he'd much rather convert us all into his gaas god instead of sending us to trials.

Prisioners don't add to the CCU after all.

 

[Guilty_AI]

Shutting down wouldn't be a worry had the game not been live service.

 

[Bernardougf]

Wtf ... those people are sick

 

[Mondai]

I need a link to this topic pls lol.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Wtf ... those people are sick

Of course they are. This is not about games or gaming, but about changing culture. I'm so glad this game is falling the way it is; making its demise so much humiliating for Bungie, Sony and Gaming Media. The Internet Army has been relentless and has exposed (again) that they dont control the narrative anymore.

And we all know that even if sony shuts downs Bungie, people at the studio will blame gamers instead. So....they will never understand

 

[BbMajor7th]

Welcome to upside down world, where the 'fascists' point and laugh at the corporations and the 'socialists' go to bat for them.

Who knows, maybe GAF was the real socialist safe space, after all? Where you could still criticise a billion-dollar corporate entity without facing **checks notes"" 'Nuremberg-style trials'.

 

[Saber]

Thats how I picture most of them. Those probably attack any kind of criticism, even from people who actually like the game but feel like it needs adjustments to be made.

 

[Fake]

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Another GaaS on death's door


Men in boxes's reality has been a complete lie!

 

[Bernardougf]

Men in boxes's reality has been a complete lie!

 

[rkofan87]

No, I think you guys overestimate how close it is to getting shut down. Bungie is clearly going to get a runways to fix this. The genre is too compelling to deny.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

When you you think Bungie ends development on Marathon?

 

[Bitstream]

When you you think Bungie ends development on Marathon?

When sony cuts their losses and shuts them down

sooo

Next week?

 

[EN250]

No, I think you guys overestimate how close it is to getting shut down. Bungie is clearly going to get a runways to fix this. The genre is too compelling to deny.

You live in a parallel reality, where is this compelling genre you're talking about, it's an in-game mode stretched to its limit to serve as a new genre and it's not pulling the numbers to be called compelling at all, this ain't BR and Bungie is not serving first in this race to win over mainstream popularity

Marathon is a mistake