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[Roman Empire]

If it hits that low it's probably done at that point but hopefully some how Bungie can do something before then, what I don't know?

Hard to say because you can't simply change content pipeline like that mid-season while, respectively, working on future season content. The roadmap is done, so I hardly think they will come up with anything that they didn't already have planned.

Not a comfortable to be in for any studio tbh. But people like Jason Schrier and Paul Tassi should keep news coming as they are highly connected to Bungie.

 

[pepeno]

If it hits that low it's probably done at that point but hopefully some how Bungie can do something before then, what I don't know?

Nothing they can do now. Bungie right now doesn't have any other project going internally. They were hoping hard for Marathon to cover their Destiny 2 downturn.
Initial sales for €40 probably didn't even cover last year of developement not talking about whole thing.

I wouldn't be shocked if Sony will ask them to shut it down because at around 15k people peak they will be actively bleeding money for servers and maintance and there won't be enough microtransaction money to cover it.

Whole Bungie is right now at stake. Even if they would move all resources to make another game that's at least 5 years away. 5 years of bleeding money hard for really high paid studio with 800+ devs.

Imo Sony will shut down studio in no less than 3 months, probably shorter time.

Yesterday Marathon hit for the first time below 40k players.

People were mentioning it could hit below 40k this week, but no one expected it to hit by Wednesday.

The game is still in its first season, and is only two weeks old. Marathon's Seasons are 3 months long. If this decline keeps on happening at this pace, I don't want to think what the game's numbers will be by the end of the season. It may hit less than 20k peaks and as low as 7k on downtimes.

I predicted it :3

Moreover if you look how it is bleeding you can see easily it is around 2.5-3k per day. And the floor is not even close as rate is barely slowing down. On monday it should hit around 32k peak max.

Once it reaches around 15k peak that's when you talk about shutting down GAAS game because costs of maintance goes about income from micro and that is not even covering ongoing developement cost of new content.

 

[Timberwolf25]

lol. I just noticed the thread title change

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

Meanwhile in Crimson desert OT

 

[Sgt.Asher]

Remember when Halo: Reach released with a campaign, multiple multiplayer modes, forge, and unlockable cosmetics.

Now we got this.

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

Remember when Halo: Reach released with a campaign, multiple multiplayer modes, forge, and unlockable cosmetics.

Now we got this.

It's pretty sad isn't it

 

[rkofan87]

Oh they'll be around. People are very curious about this game.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

You guys don't have a CCU obsession with Wildgate. You have a CCU obsession with Marathon. You will definitely be interested in the launch of S2.

 

[RafterXL]

It's pretty sad isn't it

Sadder than you know. This was the original plan for Marathon:

 

[Sohurmk833]

You guys don't have a CCU obsession with Wildgate. You have a CCU obsession with Marathon. You will definitely be interested in the launch of S2.

Well let's see if Bungie makes it that far. Not looking good.

 

[SmokSmog]

lel, this isn't making any money. RIP Bungie.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

You guys don't have a CCU obsession with Wildgate. You have a CCU obsession with Marathon. You will definitely be interested in the launch of S2.

It's less so an obsession and more so a... curiosity.

Seeing Concord flop was like witnessing an epic car crash that happened in a split second. Seeing Marathon continuing to bleed players is like witnessing an epic car crash in super slowmo.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Well let's see if Bungie makes it that far. Not looking good.

S2 is a guarantee.

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

Sadder than you know. This was the original plan for Marathon:

Dude that's wild because I have been saying for years I wish games took more inspiration from daoc as I fucking played that for years and the concept of 3 realms meeting in a pvp zone was epic. The stories were endless, the drama it was incredible... But it was pure pvp, no extraction bullshit. It's a shame they didn't create a large game with pve shit to do like destiny but then a faction based game with a few factions that met in the middle of a pvp zone to fight... Now THAT... would've been something

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

It's less so an obsession and more so a... curiosity.

I think we're well past curiosity. This is the Sun God for many.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

I think we're well past curiosity. This is the Sun God for many.

See, this is exactly why we're still curious. Your gradual descent into madness is pretty damn funny.

 

[Roman Empire]

This is the current Downward Trend for the game:

It is as P pepeno previously mentioned. The game has been on steady decline of around 2k players per day.

Not looking good tbh. Bungie did act quickly on changing Cryo Archive and Ranked Mode weekend restrictions but it won't be of much help.

 

[Guilty_AI]

Imo only gta6 online gonna be big(humongous rather), rest will be bigger or smaller flops

I actually have some doubts about that. GTAVI will definitely be gigantic, but its important to remember GTAV Online was kind of a lightining in a bottle, right place at the right time.

Nowadays not only it'd have to compete for time with other well-estabilished live service games, it also must deal with GTAV online itself. Will players from that migrate to GTAVI Online? Will they even want to considering how much they've spent and built in there? I think theres a very real possibility GTAVI online might just end up like Red Dead Online.

 

[Loomy]

Sadder than you know. This was the original plan for Marathon:

I hope they all(Bungie) watch that original vidoc. It's roadmap for what they should turn this game into. I assume they have a lot of this built or mapped out already.

There was also the idea of the first team to accomplish something being immortalize in the game in some way.

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

I really think the aesthetics of this game is a huge huge part of what's wrong.

Take Crimson desert, if the world was that of marathon I wouldn't play it most likely. Nothing about just blocky bright colors everywhere and weird ugly characters that just suck even remotely calls to me.. They messed up big with that. If characters maybe had a better and more cool look I'd have maybe been able to look past extraction elements.

Half of what makes loot fun is how it all looks. I get tastes are different but I don't know how anyone can like the art direction of marathon

 

[Last Hearth]

I really think the aesthetics of this game is a huge huge part of what's wrong.

Take Crimson desert, if the world was that of marathon I wouldn't play it most likely. Nothing about just blocky bright colors everywhere and weird ugly characters that just suck even remotely calls to me.. They messed up big with that. If characters maybe had a better and more cool look I'd have maybe been able to look past extraction elements.

Half of what makes loot fun is how it all looks. I get tastes are different but I don't know how anyone can like the art direction of marathon

It just shows the game was poorly thought out, there is no unifying vision and it's just different department each doing their own thing. The art department wanted to make a game with unique niche aesthetics, while the business department had budgeted the game as a mass appeal online shooter that will last a long time as a GAAS based on selling skins, and the two departments never talked to each other.

 

[falconhoof]

Tassi talking about the data. Not sure if it's just from his article or there's more info in this.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

This is the current Downward Trend for the game:

It is as P pepeno previously mentioned. The game has been on steady decline of around 2k players per day.

Not looking good tbh. Bungie did act quickly on changing Cryo Archive and Ranked Mode weekend restrictions but it won't be of much help.

What makes it even worse is that it is declining at a fixed number of players per day as opposed to a fixed percentage of players per day.

A decline of 2K players from an average of 60K is a 3.3% decrease whereas a 2K decline from an average of 40K is a 5% decrease. Basically as each day passes by, the playercount decline progressively hurts more proportionally.

 

[falconhoof]

In a possibly more positive note. Numbers today look like they're on par with yesterday after that earlier dip.

Perhaps due to Cryo being opened early so we'll see how things normalize there, but maybe we're starting to find the next resistance point as things have hit a more dedicated core base.

I'll still say that these numbers would be strong for a smaller company. It's not often we see big companies set the right expectations for a product and it defines how they evaluate success or not. Taking Marathon for what it is, and not what it should have been (depending on who you ask), and these numbers if they can hold are good for a hardcore sweatfest. It stands up to Tarkov quite well.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

1 pm completed cryo launch hour.

Looks like cryo bump in full swing. The morning hours were all down, then it picked up the past hour right at cryo hour.

Yesterday: 24.5k
Today: 25.1k (+600 or 2.4%)

 

[GermanZepp]

anyoen knows what happended to ZehDon ? Why he got banned?

 

[Timberwolf25]

1 pm completed cryo launch hour.

Looks like cryo bump in full swing. The morning hours were all down, then it picked up the past hour right at cryo hour.

Yesterday: 24.5k
Today: 25.1k (+600 or 2.4%)

Curious to see how long or if it lasts.
Still with that small uptick, those are likely players that already have the game.

For them to be successful, they need not only new players, but also players that will buy their mtx.

 

[calico]

It's time to introduce an entry fee for cryo.

 

[Zacfoldor]

You guys don't have a CCU obsession with Wildgate. You have a CCU obsession with Marathon. You will definitely be interested in the launch of S2.

Beware the ides of June. The first wipe will be interesting. Will people see it as a jumping in point or a jumping off point.

 

[Lord Panda]

anyoen knows what happended to ZehDon ? Why he got banned?

He got done in the Iran War thread.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Curious to see how long or if it lasts.
Still with that small uptick, those are likely players that already have the game.

For them to be successful, they need not only new players, but also players that will buy their mtx.

2 pm isnt done yet, but when the hour closes it might be up about 4%.

I'll stick to my guess it'll be flat by USA peak time. But you never know, it might hold to a positive rest of day. Last week it started hot at cryo hour +30%, but still held to +18% final.

 

[cormack12]

anyoen knows what happended to ZehDon ? Why he got banned?

Huh, always seemed cool

 

[StreetsofBeige]

In a possibly more positive note. Numbers today look like they're on par with yesterday after that earlier dip.

Perhaps due to Cryo being opened early so we'll see how things normalize there, but maybe we're starting to find the next resistance point as things have hit a more dedicated core base.

I'll still say that these numbers would be strong for a smaller company. It's not often we see big companies set the right expectations for a product and it defines how they evaluate success or not. Taking Marathon for what it is, and not what it should have been (depending on who you ask), and these numbers if they can hold are good for a hardcore sweatfest. It stands up to Tarkov quite well.

Who knows what will happen, but I stick my view cryo should be open 24/7. It gives core gamers all week to try it on their own time. And for normies who dont do it, it still gives them any time to try it if they want to give it a go. Funneling it all to a big weekend event is stupid. I get it they wanted to make matchmaking better as per Ziegler's tweet, but all that will for many people is not even bother and lose interest.

So it's good they are inching their way adding an extra day.

In other shooters with tons of maps and modes, if the studio wants to make a new map put into a special playlist or mosh pit mode, or specifically designated for a certain mode (big new map for big modes) it's not the end of the world. A lot of people wont even care about it since there's 15 other maps strewn across 8 different modes already. Missing out on one map who cares. I play most of my gaming in COD as normal 6 vs 6 modes. I dont know or care one bit about new maps for obscure modes. Often times when other shooters release maps, it's sometimes more than 1 too. So even if a map is out of scope for someone's gameplay, there's probably another map released that fits for their rotation.

Marathon is doing the opposite. It's a niche shooter genre and only 3 normal maps. The first content drops should be more maps for everyone as all gamers will play it, so it solidifies the user base or maybe even grows it. The hardcore obscure stuff should come later. Their strategy of securing the hardcore base first for cryo lovers will just make normies leave. The gameplay is hard enough for them. But to lock out a map to better gamers leaves them with a meaningless content drop.

 

[falconhoof]

Who knows what will happen, but I stick my view cryo should be open 24/7. It gives core gamers all week to try it on their own time. And for normies who dont do it, it still gives them any time to try it if they want to give it a go. Funneling it all to a big weekend event is stupid. I get it they wanted to make matchmaking better as per Ziegler's tweet, but all that will for many people is not even bother and lose interest.

So it's good they are inching their way adding an extra day.

In other shooters with tons of maps and modes, if the studio wants to make a new map put into a special playlist or mosh pit mode, or specifically designated for a certain mode (big new map for big modes) it's not the end of the world. A lot of people wont even care about it since there's 15 other maps strewn across 8 different modes already. Missing out on one map who cares. Often times when other shooters release maps, it's sometimes more than 1 too. So even if a map is out of scope for someone's gameplay, there's probably another map released that fits for their rotation.

Yeah. The game is far too early in its life span (with not enough content) to be time locking content.

I don't disagree in principle about many of the moves the developers are making, I just think they're applying them incorrectly. Picking the wrong content at the wrong time. It feels like they're operating on an already successful title that has gamers eating from the palm of their hand. Sometimes playful teasing, being reserved and holding back are good things that can keep people engaged, but the community they have a hold over right now is far too thin and not established enough to know how far away they are from pissing them off.

I don't know if Division 2's updates or Arc could rip into what community Marathon has, but they should probably be looking over their shoulder just in case. Many Marathon players could walk away now and happily say they've got their monies worth from the game. Bungie don't want that.

 

[Mengy]

You will definitely be interested in the launch of S2.

Speaking for myself, I will only be interested in Marathon S2 if Bungie does the following:

1. Make solo play much more approachable and a much better experience.
2. Add some mode or mechanic for the less sweaty, less hardcore players. Maybe they implement ABMM like Arc Raiders has? Or they add some much more casual friendly modes?

Sadly I don't expect Bungie to do either of those things.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Yeah. The game is far too early in its life span (with not enough content) to be time locking content.

I don't disagree in principle about many of the moves the developers are making, I just think they're applying them incorrectly. Picking the wrong content at the wrong time. It feels like they're operating on an already successful title that has gamers eating from the palm of their hand. Sometimes playful teasing, being reserved and holding back are good things that can keep people engaged, but the community they have a hold over right now is far too thin and not established enough to know how far away they are from pissing them off.

I don't know if Division 2's updates or Arc could rip into what community Marathon has, but they should probably be looking over their shoulder just in case. Many Marathon players could walk away now and happily say they've got their monies worth from the game. Bungie don't want that.

I forgot, making the cryo drop even worse is that it doesnt even include solo. Who knows how many gamers are solo vs trios, but for those gamers who are locked into avoiding team play, that mode is pointless. Or they got to force themselves to team up with people for the sake of it.

The next map drop is supposedly a night time version of Dire Marsh too. So unless the map itself is changed up a lot, it's basically just a lighting change. That's like saying the Makin Day map drop in World at War is a big content boost when all it did was change it to sunny and adjusted some minor things about the map..... debris, rocks, cover in some spots were adjusted including one of my fav spots they replaced the giant boulder I used for cover with a wooden fence! lol. Great they added it, but it was no game changer.

Often times if I played the Makin Day/Night maps back to back in the rotation, I'd press skip the second time and hope enough gamers did the same so we could get a different map.

 

[Hari Seldon]

Sadder than you know. This was the original plan for Marathon:

Now that sounds like a real game. My guess is that went into development hell and they pulled a temu overwatch. I don't know how anyone above senior engineer has a job at Bungie. They should literally fire everyone.

 

[Conflict NZ]

So far tracking ~1K ahead of yesterday but ~1K behind the day before. Based on typical weekday decay that points to ~3K extra players than normal that have turned up for early Cryo. Will be interesting to see the peak today.

 

[Artistic]

9/10 from PC Gamer and GameSpot if it matters at this point.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Now that sounds like a real game. My guess is that went into development hell and they pulled a temu overwatch. I don't know how anyone above senior engineer has a job at Bungie. They should literally fire everyone.

Probably saw old Arc Raiders trailers over the years and got wind of gameplay mechanics through the grapevine and panicked.

Their plagiarized art style is locked and loaded, so cant change that. But the gameplay changed mid way. That's why the old beta tests last year and the final game is content light. They spent a lot of time reworking stuff.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Probably saw old Arc Raiders trailers over the years and got wind of gameplay mechanics through the grapevine and panicked.

Very, very unlikely. ARC Raiders didn't become relevant until TT2, which was 6 months before launch. Marathon was well on it's trajectory by that point.

Their plagiarized art style is locked and loaded, so cant change that. But the gameplay changed mid way. That's why the old beta tests last year and the final game is content light. They spent a lot of time reworking stuff.

More likely was that Barretts version wasn't coming together and Ziegler knew how to get the project out the door with a less ambitious design.

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

9/10 from PC Gamer and GameSpot if it matters at this point.

It doesn't

 

[Loomy]

Bungie right now doesn't have any other project going internally.

We have no idea about this. A year ago they had 3 projects no one knew about that got cancelled.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

2 pm isnt done yet, but when the hour closes it might be up about 4%.

2 pm hour finished 27.8k vs 26.7k yesterday (+1.1k or +4%)

4 pm hour finished 32.7k vs 30.7k yesterday (+2k or +6.5%)

If it hold to these kinds of rates all day, it'll peak at about 42k (similar to Tues) and the low will rebound back to 13k.

 

[diffusionx]

Yeah this narrative is beyond dead .... people insist that gaas is the future because a couple of products that exists for years are popular like fifa, fortnite and etc... aside from this juggernauts that will never go away.. any gaas has to fight for attention of the same player base, meanwhile single player gamers continue to buy games regularly because there's no long term attachment.

Chasing gaas is burning money trying to find a golden egg goose.. problem is others found gooses that put diamond eggs. So your golden egg means jack shit.

Same exact arc as MMOs after World of Warcraft.. billions was spent and in the end we got like 2 successful ones, WOW and FF11/14.

The core issue is that any new game has to be way better than whatever people are already playing and that's extremely difficult to do.

 

[pepeno]

We have no idea about this. A year ago they had 3 projects no one knew about that got cancelled.

That's what I am talking about. Sony decided to cut costs and focus on marathon. Now marathon is failure and guess what Sony will do.

 

[Loomy]

That's what I am talking about. Sony decided to cut costs and focus on marathon. Now marathon is failure and guess what Sony will do.

My point is a year and a half ago we had no idea they had 3 other projects going on. So today we have no idea what unannounced projects they have at the studio.

 

[Danny22]

Is there any continuos hit GAAS that looks like it was made from a spreadsheet? (Not talking about Marathon)

I feel people might be fooled by a 2 hour movie or even a 100 hour game, but to keep playing continuosly requires passionate devs that speak at the same level as the players. That's also what PC players like and why these games are more of a hit on PC.

Sony's initative never looked like more than suits pointing at spreadsheets. Keeping in mind that TLOU online, and Helldivers 2 were going to come before the initiative started taking place.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Yeah this narrative is beyond dead .... people insist that gaas is the future because a couple of products that exists for years are popular like fifa, fortnite and etc... aside from this juggernauts that will never go away.. any gaas has to fight for attention of the same player base, meanwhile single player gamers continue to buy games regularly because there's no long term attachment.

Chasing gaas is burning money trying to find a golden egg goose.. problem is others found gooses that put diamond eggs. So your golden egg means jack shit.

Totally.

Think of it like cars. There's XXX number of top companies around the world hogging all the money. If any new car company wants to take a crack at making a super successful car company good luck. It'll take a shitload of time and resources to pinch off a popular brand down the ladder.

Just because there's a bunch of big companies doing it for a 100 years doesnt mean it's easy to barge in.

But it can happen. Tesla came out of nowhere and is now a popular brand and makes profit too. But how many new car companies can do that. Only reason they survived was due to raising tons of money through last minute financing, issuing stock at high prices, Musk even tossed in some of his own money and reading up about it made billions in selling carbon credits to other companies.

So they got by on money hoards to outlast the bad years. Gaming is different as a lot of game studios go broke and get shut down fast.

A lot of these studios with buckets of cash to burn thinking they can be the next Tesla. It can happen, but very slim chances. Or well, ARC Raiders did great. So can we. Not so easy. It's better if they use those coffers and try something more modest so you got budget left to survive another project than go all in, fail and shut down.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

5 pm hour finished 33.9k vs 32.6k yesterday (+1.3k or +4%).

If it holds to this rate all day, it'll peak at about 41k.