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Marathon approaching 15k CCU low (sponsored by coachmcguirk91 - still having a blast)

Negotiator101 said:
Basically not enough, they need to go F2P asap that would bring in much bigger numbers but do they have enough monetisation in the game, probably not.
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Also will players stick around?
Even people who like the game tend to agree the onboarding isn't great. I've seen lots of "I only started getting it and liking it after playing for 8 hours" type of comments.
F2P would likely generate a big influx of players but I think a lot of them would just play a few games and drop it (Highguard style).
 
I can't see F2P working that well as the customization is awful. The shells are just look awful, I am not sure who would pay for a garish re-color.
 
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If it gets much lower without this long awaited 'levelling off' kicking in, you're going to get the compounding factor of new people not wanting to risk buying a game which looks like it's already got one foot in the grave.
 
I doubt Sony will shutdown Bungie, too embarrassing and too much negative press. Cut to the absolute bone though I can easily see that happening.

I would make whoever is left develop a Killzone remake just for the lols and irony.
 
The wipe can't come quick enough 😂 I think that's the nail, I am sure most will feel like they've done and seen what they came to do . That sounds absolutely fucking atrocious to have a mandatory wipe
 
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Negotiator101 said:
Basically not enough, they need to go F2P asap that would bring in much bigger numbers but do they have enough monetisation in the game, probably not.
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Not sure f2p would make a huge difference to be honest without Bungie making significant changes to make it more appealing to newcomers and the more casual crowd. You make a good point about the monetisation aspect.
 
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Don't think f2p will matter, because it was f2p and the numbers were just as underwhelming. Just think it needs to be accepted it's an ugly game with not much of a draw to it outside of fans of extraction
 
F2P will get a lot of new players trying it for sure. The downside of F2P is that there is no investment, so if the player doesn't like something there is no reason to not just uninstall. I have alt-f4 uninstalled more f2p games than I have kept to play for sure.
 
F2P won't save this game, the server slam reception said it all. It's a very hostile game to newcomers.

What this game needed was other game modes an open map and a single player campaign like The Division so people who want to sweat can do the extraction mode but everyone else can enjoy the game in different ways.


Zacfoldor said:
Does anybody think that Marathon's mtx has done well for them?
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No chance

As much as I like the art style it doesn't lend itself well to mtx.
 
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diffusionx said:
F2P won't save this game, the server slam reception said it all. It's a very hostile game to newcomers.

What this game needed was other game modes an open map and a single player campaign like The Division so people who want to sweat can do the extraction mode but everyone else can enjoy the game in different ways.



No chance

As much as I like the art style it doesn't lend itself well to mtx.
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They have the ugliest skins ever in a GaaS title.
 
Hari Seldon said:
F2P will get a lot of new players trying it for sure. The downside of F2P is that there is no investment, so if the player doesn't like something there is no reason to not just uninstall. I have alt-f4 uninstalled more f2p games than I have kept to play for sure.
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Dude did it was f2p and nobody showed
 
ChorizoPicozo said:
And problems are starting to become more apparent (balancing issues) between normal players and the absolute degenerates, then there is the issue of the complete reset/wipe at the end of the season. Some people think this game will go f2P...In my mind, there is no chance of that ever happening. (especially when it has been a financial failure from the get-go)

TDBXzplDoJtJBCqW.jpg

Dave Chappelle Snl GIF by Saturday Night Live
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Closing bungie is the final nail on the "all in gaas" project coffin... it does not mean they will not develop gaas ever.. just that the balance will swing to what PS always was.
 
Hari Seldon said:
F2P will get a lot of new players trying it for sure. The downside of F2P is that there is no investment, so if the player doesn't like something there is no reason to not just uninstall. I have alt-f4 uninstalled more f2p games than I have kept to play for sure.
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I dont think so? Free server test was for everyone, no barriers and people still didn't showed up.
They need to slave themselves to work to the bone and remove all this bland asexual art and try to put something to actually attract people(aka having an appeal). I say that but they obviously won't, all this non gendered designs were clearly intentional.
 
Bernardougf said:
Closing bungie is the final nail on the "all in gaas" project coffin... it does not mean they will not develop gaas ever.. just that the balance will swing to what PS always was.
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Marathon is the final boss of the Concordian timeline....they just massively fucked up, like... they reeeeally fucked up. Gran Turismo, MLB, and Helldivers were developed/evolved outside the GaaS initiative. I think there is always room for GaaS games IF they are done organically.
 
f2p would invite the cheaters in to a mostly PC game since there is no skin in the game (costs) or barrier to entry.
That would then snowball into shedding the hardcore players that is most of the userbase that would've stuck around.

What does a lifetime ban matter, when you just create a new account?
 
Seeing a lot of posts on the Marathon sub now begging Bungie to make the game free. Funnily enough mods seem to be removing the F2P requests but leaving the free weekend requests up.

Is that really the sign of a healthy game? Imagine buying a game at full price and then begging the people you purchased it from to make it free less than three weeks later.
 
If those sales figures are accurate(and they seemed to be corroborated as such) it's very tough to say it will continue to do well.

Seems it is regularly bleeding players and upcoming updates to ARC, Helldivers, etc. will hasten the trouble.

I've seen many in here make a bit a joke in regards to Division 2 "catching up to it". I agree that is a bit wild for a 2019 game to fly up the charts.

But Division 2 has *really* struck a chord with it's plethora of updates. They continously add tons of new content in their updates(new modes, new gear, new modifiers, grinds for Expertise, Prototype Gear, PvP, PvEvP, mini-raids, raids, etc.)

For usually *far* less than the price of Marathon(maybe the same if you buy the third expansion), you get a metric asston of gameplay.

They do quite a bit of shop stuff, but they clearly funnel that money back into the game.
 
StreetsofBeige said:
Given today's peak finished at 42k, at a usual -5% attrition rate tomorrow should be about 40k. Possible it hits the 39s. A -7.2%+ would be needed to hit the 38s.
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That looks like it for the night. Peak is 39.8k. First time dropping below 40k. Hey, I was pretty darn close. Only 200 CCU off.

Today 39.8k
Yesterday 42.1k (-2.3k or -5.4%)
Last Weds 51.8k (-12k or -23.2%)

It bottomed out at 13.1k late last night. At -5.4% it should be about 12.4-12.5k tonight and drop off the top 100 at that time. The peak for this game at the beginning had it about 15th highest. Now with the drop in CCU it's right now at #24 just a few min past it's daily peak. This will drop more as the game is losing -5% per day on avg. It'll get boosted on Friday/weekend like all games, but Monday drops huge.
 
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StreetsofBeige said:
That looks like it for the night. Peak is 39.8k. First time dropping below 40k. Hey, I was pretty darn close. Only 200 CCU off.

Today 39.8k
Yesterday 42.1k (-2.3k or -5.4%)
Last Weds 51.8k (-12k or -23.2%)

It bottomed out at 13.1k late last night. At -5.4% it should be about 12.4-12.5k tonight.
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Really interesting part will be tomorrow when Cryo is opened early and for the next four days. Will it keep up the usual decline or will that keep some people around.
 
Conflict NZ said:
Really interesting part will be tomorrow when Cryo is opened early and for the next four days. Will it keep up the usual decline or will that keep some people around.
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IMO, no effect as a whole. People already tried it last weekend and it fizzed out fast. It may pop tomorrow, but then it'll fade away. Last week it popped Friday, then Sat/Sun actually went down. Then start of Monday went down more as usual to here we are now.

The game has the usual -5% per weekday today. There's likely a balance going on before cryo day netting no gains. 1. Gamers playing to build up inventory to do cryo runs. 2. People with good enough gear and wont play till cryo day as they dont want to lose any gear and only care about cryo runs. 3. Normie gamers getting slammed by core gamers with even better cryo gear in normal matches. They dont care about cryo.

Add it up and the CCU goes down.

Since it gears to hardcore gamers, they are probably good enough to collect loot in cryo and not even bother playing a lot on normal maps. According to what I read, cryo has really good loot. So just grab some good stuff and leave. You dont have to go all the way beating the boss. These gamers will probably just focus on cryo.

On ranked days, they will probably avoid those days as they dont want to be matched up against good gamers and lose any good gear. And they'll start avoiding any unranked modes for similar reasons.

It's kind of like Diablo 3. When I played it had story mode, adventure mode and nephalem rifts. It gets to a point you avoid story mode after youve beaten it a couple times, only do adventure runs for gems, then focus most time in rifts because you level up fast and get best loot. Thats kind of like cryo.
 
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You can see there is only so much gaas players to sqeeuze
Just take a look at destiny numbers
 
Sub 40k peak first time. It should stay at this level or slightly go up on weekend but monday should be around 32k peak lol. On friday next week it should hit sub 20k peak at this rate.
 
pepeno said:
Sub 40k peak first time. It should stay at this level or slightly go up on weekend but monday should be around 32k peak lol. On friday next week it should hit sub 20k peak at this rate.
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Believe it or not, it might pop tomorrow as cryo gamers who jump in. I bet some gamers now focus on cryo only. They got enough gear on them all the time and looting some cryo runs they dont need to play the off days. That's why the attrition rate keeps falling instead of hooking people into playing more which is what Ziegler hinted at..... people grind up and cryo is a special event. Cryo gamers dont need to keep grinding and normies are bailing.

Both Monday to Monday comparisons lost 18-19% of people. Past Monday was 44.4k. So if it loses 18-19% again, then Monday should be about 36k assuming it keeps trending that way.

At current trends, by next Friday it should be in the 20s somewhere. Even holding to 30k is a stretch.

What Bungie needs is this cryo/ranked scheduling and their tweaked matchmaking algorithms they did to boost gamers. I dont see it happening as it keeps dropping -5% on weekdays.

If they really want to keep gamers, just make cryo/ranked/unranked 24/7. You can see they are already expanding it out from weekends only.

Cryo gamers can do it all the time all week, so it makes them happy. And normies can have fun playing more in ranked so they play in weaker lobbies instead of getting slaughtered in unranked. And if they want to test out unranked or give it a go in cryo they can on any day.
 
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lh032 said:
You can see there is only so much gaas players to sqeeuze
Just take a look at destiny numbers
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Yeah this narrative is beyond dead .... people insist that gaas is the future because a couple of products that exists for years are popular like fifa, fortnite and etc... aside from this juggernauts that will never go away.. any gaas has to fight for attention of the same player base, meanwhile single player gamers continue to buy games regularly because there's no long term attachment.

Chasing gaas is burning money trying to find a golden egg goose.. problem is others found gooses that put diamond eggs. So your golden egg means jack shit.
 
So I'm not sure exactly how many grains of salt are necessary here, but it looks like the official Marathon D*scord is paying people $5 to comment on posts on Reddit to help market the game:



Screenshots here:

also, the platform they're using is e******k.io and t******t.io - but from what i gathered, you have to be invited to join the 'pool' for Marathon

Workers are mostly from India.

Basically the system is the client (Sony/Bungie) has comments and/or posts they pre-composed. Workers will have to 'claim' each one as their task. Copy and paste it, and post it on the indicated subreddit and/or comment reply.

They get paid for a successful post (successful means not deleted by mods or caught by auto-mods and bots). $5 per OP post and $3 per comment / reply.

A worker can only claim one task per 24 hours. And they have to make unrelated comments on other subs (I was told they need to make 5 random comments after the 'task') so they wouldn't look like they're only promoting or defendiong Marathon

Will post more screens as I get them
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Big drop late night. Even a touch worse than my 12.4-12.5k estimate based on trending yesterday. But I was still off by only 100-200.

Unless cryo boosts the CCU like last Friday, this game might hit the 11s late night.

As reference, last week's cryo day surged +30% when it started at 1 pm hour, but still ended the day with a final +18% peak vs day before. Who knows what kind of effect it'll have today. Cryo starts at 1 pm est again. It's the second cryo wave and a Thursday start this time.

Yesterday peak 39.8k. If the peak trends to usual -5%, peak will be about 37.8k. If it hits +18%, it'll be 47k. Then anything in between.

I'm going to throw a dart before it starts and say today's peak will be flat. So about 40k-ish again.

kYv6A7udFnqs0qLw.jpg
 
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The downward trajectory is still going, absolutely brutal how you can watch this die in real time.
If you think about how many people worked on this for years and years it`s just insane.
 
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Von Hugh said:
Under 10K next week. Game is dying.
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It'll hold above 10k this week as Friday/weekend comes around to prop up and hold numbers. Monday will be a big dump. After a few downtrending days, when it hits about 30k peak is when 10k will happen. Possibly around Wednesday late night.

This is based on some ballpark trending and numbers in my head, assuming cryo wont have an effect and usual -5% weekdays, and using a rough 3:1 CCU ratio of peaks and valleys on weekdays.
 
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Cumulus said:
The downward trajectory is still going, absolutely brutal how you can watch this die in real time.
If you think about how many people worked on this for years and years it`s just insane.
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A large group knew this game was in a lot of trouble

I never fault anyone who enjoys any game as I love some pretty obscure titles but this game was never going to succeed on a large scale
 
Darchaos said:
Damn, but not suprised at all.
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To be honest, at first my reaction was "well it's just another type of marketing in the current era" Then I saw the details that they make them copy/paste the lines and then go make other unrelated posts in different subreddits so they don't get caught for astroturfing. It shows that they're being distrustful and dishonest on purpose right from the get-go.
 
Pejo said:
So I'm not sure exactly how many grains of salt are necessary here, but it looks like the official Marathon D*scord is paying people $5 to comment on posts on Reddit to help market the game:

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There yah go, more money on the sink.
Man, this game is gonna end being the biggest money waster Sony ever had.
This actually is thread worthy if true.
 
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CrustyBritches said:
Division 2 at 11k vs Marathon at 16k. Getting closer. We might not get them on the peak, but we could ambush them in the valley.
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Yesterday Marathon hit for the first time below 40k players.

IG21Tf03ut8BYnQ0.png

People were mentioning it could hit below 40k this week, but no one expected it to hit by Wednesday.

The game is still in its first season, and is only two weeks old. Marathon's Seasons are 3 months long. If this decline keeps on happening at this pace, I don't want to think what the game's numbers will be by the end of the season. It may hit less than 20k peaks and as low as 7k on downtimes.
 
Roman Empire said:
Yesterday Marathon hit for the first time below 40k players.

IG21Tf03ut8BYnQ0.png

People were mentioning it could hit below 40k this week, but no one expected it to hit by Wednesday.

The game is still in its first season, and is only two weeks old. Marathon's Seasons are 3 months long. If this decline keeps on happening at this pace, I don't want to think what the game's numbers will be by the end of the season. It may hit less than 20k peaks and as low as 7k on downtimes.
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If it hits that low it's probably done at that point but hopefully some how Bungie can do something before then, what I don't know?
 
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