The future of Naughty Dog hinges on Intergalactic. I strongly doubt Sony will approve another 9-figure new IP from ND if Intergalactic fails. They'll be back to making TLoU and Uncharted games -- with or without Neil Druckmann -- if Intergalactic fails.
The success of Project Helix comes down to four things:
1) Sony must fuckup with the PS6. Essentially, Sony needs to repeat the PS3 launch for Project Helix to have a shot at being a viable alternative to the PS6. Based on all of the public statements and rumors around the Nextbox -- premium-priced, part of a family of devices, and a PC with Xbox BC -- it would take a colossal fuckup from Sony to repeat the PS3 mistake (i.e., higher price than the competition, poor dev environment, undercooked online features etc.)
2) The Helix must have exclusive killer apps. It's not enough that it can play PC games; that market is covered by (you guessed it) PC's. Helix would need like 5 Palworld's within its first year for people to look at it as a viable platform to spend their time, energy, and money on. The bad news for the Corden crowd is Microsoft cares more about money from software than money from hardware. There (currently) does not appear to be a single Microsoft executive who wants a return to exclusives. The killer apps that Helix would have would therefore be multiplats or just timed-exclusives; and they would be timed because Helix launches earlier than the PS6 and not because Microsoft does a complete 180 and starts spending billions to moneyhat exclusives.
3) The Helix must have killer features. Games and games alone are not enough. If, for example, the Helix launches with the same controller as the Series S/X? DOA. If the Helix has a bunch of intrusive AI features that add nothing meaningful to gameplay and QoL? DOA. If the Helix's multiple OEM strategy leads to features for one box that aren't in another one and vice versa -- aka product fragmentation? DOA. Helix needs something that genuinely makes PlayStation and Nintendo players go "Now THAT is fucking awesome."
4) Retailers in America and outside of America must be on board. From a pure marketing perspective, the PS6 -- assuming Sony does not fuck it up -- will be significantly more retailer-friendly than the Helix. The PS5 is selling marvelously well and will continue to do so going into the PS6 thanks to titles like GTA6, The Witcher 4, the next Spider-Man etc. The horrible sales of the Series consoles means that retailers are going to be much more hesitant to stock a bunch of $1K+ new Xbox's. On top of that, given the split between digital and physical on Xbox, the Helix could launch without a disc drive. While that works for most of NA/fast-internet countries, it does not work for the RotW, and retailers won't get behind it as much as they'll get behind the PS6; which will more than likely have a disc drive option (due to PlayStation's popularity outside of NA) just like the Pro.
TL;DR: Project Helix only succeeds if Sony fucks up and Xbox figures out that they need to innovate and convince both Microsoft and retailers to change their stance on Xbox. Neither of these are impossible, but they are highly unlikely to happen.
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