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[Nocty]

Recent indie success for games like Mewgenics, Slay the Spire 2, KCD2 and many others have been hitting the 4-500k mark.

Looking at the charts, it's very rare for single player games to break the 1M daily current Players mark. Naturally, a lot easier for free to play multiplayer games to achieve.

It takes a hell of a game to get over this mark. A goldilocks combo of hype, quality, broad genre and community reviews. Even with those stars aligning, great games considered masterpieces often never break the 500k mark.

Even legendary games like Elden Ring only made it to 950k on peak, so close yet so far.

Surprisingly, the last game to do it was Cyberpunk. This surprised me mainly because or how mixed opinions on the game were on launch (and to some extent, even now).

My money is on GTA6. The broad appeal, the Rockstar hype, the brand. It may not be my personal taste, but it's the most likely right?

I know it's a meaningless stat really, and certainly does not always correspond with quality, but I thought an interesting topic to discuss.

 

[Yoshichan]

crimson desert??

 

[Nankatsu]

crimson desert??

Obviously. Came here to say that.

 

[{insert code here}]

Probably some random indie game nobody's ever heard of.

 

[asdasdasdbb]

My money is on GTA6. The broad appeal, the Rockstar hype, the brand. It may not be my personal taste, but it's the most likely right?

GTA 6 isn't a single player game. The franchise is about as GASSy as it comes now.

 

[Kacho]

It will be something like GTAVI (only if it launches same day as consoles) or Fromsofts next game.

 

[Kacho]

GTA 6 isn't a single player game. The franchise is about as GASSy as it comes now.

Do we know if the online mode will be ready day one? Don't they usually delay that so people can play the campaign?

 

[asdasdasdbb]

Do we know if the online mode will be ready day one? Don't they usually delay that so people can play the campaign?

I assume by the time the game ships on Steam, the MP will be fully available.

 

[Guilty_AI]

I'm most definitely wrong but i'll say Ultrakill just for the heck of it

 

[Guesclin]

Subnautica 2

 

[asdasdasdbb]

It will be something like GTAVI (only if it launches same day as consoles) or Fromsofts next game.

From games are very MP heavy as well.

 

[rebellio]

Crimson Desert sp?

 

[Kacho]

From games are very MP heavy as well.

I consider them single player. Nightreign is multiplayer.

 

[begotten]

Based on history, Black Myth Zhong Kui seems like a pretty safe bet. China will come through.

Not sure Cyberpunk 2 can, but TW4 probably will.

GTA6 is an obvious one depending on how far out the PC release actually is.

 

[bruno_shady]

HL3

 

[nial]

Do we know if the online mode will be ready day one? Don't they usually delay that so people can play the campaign?

The online mode would still be day 1 on the PC port.

 

[asdasdasdbb]

I consider them single player. Nightreign is multiplayer.

ER can be played SP... but it's popularity is mainly because of the MP. Figure future games will only be more geared toward MP.

 

[pudel]

crimson desert??

This would be awesome!

 

[BennyBlanco]

Elden Ring 2

 

[Nocty]

Based on history, Black Myth Zhong Kui seems like a pretty safe bet. China will come through.

Not sure Cyberpunk 2 can, but TW4 probably will.

GTA6 is an obvious one depending on how far out the PC release actually is.

See, I was looking intently at both Witcher and RDR2 because I thought those would have been super high, but in fact;

Obviously, the Steam userbase was much smaller back then, and RDR2 came out on PC LONG after most had already played it.

Still I thought at least Withcer would be a lot higher.

 

[EverydayBeast]

Has to be gears e, progresses the story, coming off the incredible gears 5 and reloaded, new characters for Marcus.

 

[Nocty]

Has to be gears e, progresses the story, coming off the incredible gears 5 and reloaded, new characters for Marcus.

My money would not be on that purely because it has most of it's fanbase on Console... not that it's a bad thing or anything like that, I juts wouldnt have my money on the big steam numbers. It will sell like hotcakes on xbox though

 

[TheLikou]

Has to be gears e, progresses the story, coming off the incredible gears 5 and reloaded, new characters for Marcus.

Gears? It will be a surprise if it reaches 100k.

 

[BennyBlanco]

Actually I take it back. This will definitely be the one.

 

[Kacho]

Elder Scrolls VI will be huge but I don't see it reaching 1 million

 

[Denton]

GTA 6 would break 5 million if it launched day and date on Steam. But with delayed launch, it will probably do 1 at most.

Crimson Desert could do over million, I expect it will be huge in Asia.

Witcher 4 will probably break a million, maybe two if it is as good as generally expected.

 

[Nocty]

Crimson Desert could do over million, I expect it will be huge in Asia.

Curious what makes you think Asia will like it so much? what criteria exactly do you consider?

 

[Holammer]

I don't care two shits about it, but if Deadlock gets a surprise release. It'll be it.

 

[begotten]

Still I thought at least Withcer would be a lot higher.

That's not surprising. TW3 released in 2015 and it's launch was shit (buggy) AND closer to start of the last generation of consoles really.

TW3 got more popular overtime, and that all-time peak kind of proves it with that number being during the Netflix series first airing.

Day 1 TW4 in today's gaming landscape should absolutely smash 1M CCU on Steam.

 

[damidu]

banana reborn

 

[Mortisfacio]

Witcher 4 or the new Black Myth game I'd think. GTA6 only if it doesn't ship with MP, otherwise won't count.

 

[rebellio]

Are Witcher 3 popular on Asia?

 

[Sooner]

Wolverine? Saros? Ghost of Yotei?

 

[Laptop1991]

If Crimson Desert doesn't do it, then The Witcher 4 or a GTA 6 pc port, as for TES 6, maybe not

 

[Stuart360]

See this is why i said before that i'm not keen on ther new meta on here with using Steam CCU, only because there are a lot of console only gamers on here that see some MP game, or massively hyped SP game bring a huge CCU, and they think its the norm. Its not, especially for SP games.
As for the question, i'd say GTA6 has a chance, but i cant think of much else unless some heavily hyped Chinese game is coming up.

 

[Lionel Richie]

Wolverine? Saros? Ghost of Yotei?

 

[L*][*N*K]

Marathon

 

[Revolutionary]

Hogwarts 2

 

[asdasdasdbb]

Actually I take it back. This will definitely be the one.

That's about as good of a guess as possible.

 

[CJ_75]

Ghost of Yotei

 

[Stuart360]

Wolverine? Saros? Ghost of Yotei?

Ghost of Yotei

I know you're trying to be cute but none of those would even crack 100k. The majority of PC users dont care, which is part of the reason Sony is stopping (supposedly).

 

[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

Are Witcher 3 popular on Asia?

24% of the Steam reviews for The Witcher 3 are in simplified Chinese, so yeah, it's pretty popular.

https://www.togeproductions.com/SteamScout/steamAPI.php?appID=292030

 

[Nocty]

See this is why i said before that i'm not keen on ther new meta on here with using Steam CCU, only because there are a lot of console only gamers on here that see some MP game, or massively hyped SP game bring a huge CCU, and they think its the norm. Its not, especially for SP games.
As for the question, i'd say GTA6 has a chance, but i cant think of much else unless some heavily hyped Chinese game is coming up.

I just find the data really interesting. I agree it's not always the datapoint to follow for a games success, it's just noteworthy that very few games have broken the 1m mark (yet) from a data perspective.

 

[delishcaek]

I can't see Crimson Desert hitting 1m CCU. I predict 250-300k for that one, maybe 400k if it reviews very well (which I doubt).

Besides GTA6, I think Black Myth 2, Phantom Blade Zero and Tides of Annihilation have a good shot at hitting 1m+ CCU. There is prolly another Chinese game I haven't seen yet that people are excited for.

 

[Stuart360]

I just find the data really interesting. I agree it's not always the datapoint to follow for a games success, it's just noteworthy that very few games have broken the 1m mark (yet) from a data perspective.

I mean Starfield was the no.1 wishlisted game on Steam for over a year, and it had what?, 360k ccu or something?.
I believe Balders Gate and Hogwarts both had under 500k ccu, and they are 2 of the biggest SP games on Steam in recent memory.

It just doesnt happen that often, even with MP games. When you have a store with literally tens of thousands of games available, its just the way it is.

 

[HRK69]

FF7 remake part 3 might have a chance?

 

[Stuart360]

FF7 remake part 3 might have a chance?

The past few FF games have sold poorly on Steam. Console too to be honest. The franchise isnt what it once was.

 

[yurinka]

Wukong was a super rare exception because was the first Chinese SP AAA, so got way more usual attention in the giant Chinese market.

Cyberpunk's console version was broken garbage at launch, so everybody who played in both console and PC did get the PC version for this game. And got combined with The Witcher fanbase, who was bigger in PC.

I think GTA6 is the only one in the horizon that will achieve it, once PC gets its late port.

 

[Mhmmm 2077]

Probably next CDPR game, maybe Witcher 4, definitely Cyberpunk 2.

 

[Hawk The Slayer]

Grand Theft Auto VI
Elder Scrolls VI
Fallout 5
Witcher 4
Half Life 3
Tides of Annihilation