Speculating about next week's announcement of business strategy - how exactly do they roll this out?
- Do they announce their future hardware roadmap? Yes, I think they must to assure fans they aren't leaving altogether, but to what extent? Do they announce a future OEM approach that's more PC-like?
- Do they announce everything is third party from here on out, with Xbox hardware having some advantage with GamePass? Or do they trickle it at first to only a handful of select titles? It's weird how the rumor mill has been spinning for all the major releases Xbox has (outside of Forza).
- Are they third party day and date, or console exclusive for a window?
So many questions, it almost just makes sense to rip the bandaid off and go full third party and be 100% transparent about their plans. None of this "well, some titles may or may not" nonsense. But going full bore basically signals to consumers that you might as well get a PS5 instead of an Xbox. So can we really expect them to fully relinquish console competitiveness to such a massive degree? Maybe yes, if Microsoft is raising the white flag after so much failed investment.
Whatever MS announces next week, it's going to destroy trust or even kill the brand. I don't think Xbox fan will keep faith in their favorite console when MS announces one or more of the following options ...
... MS 1st party games will go multi-platform on a case by case basis
... a new, more expensive Gamepass tier for day 1 Xbox/PC games
... Future 1st party games will hit Gamepass not on day 1 but a year later
... OEMs are going to produce Xbox clones
Any of these options will create the impression that MS has lost faith in Xbox and that ultimately all of Microsoft's first party games will be released on PS5, so why buy Xbox? There'll be less and less people choosing Xbox, both console and software sales will decline even faster. Third party software publishers won't see the point anymore of supporting Xbox, especially when MS is switching from platform owner to outright competitor.
In my view it's the end of Xbox as a viable console platform. And I think that the economics of Xbox as a cloud platform are even more questionable. I don't see how Microsoft and Sony can turn this into a profitable business considering the enormous operational costs.