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[Ginzeen]

All eyes on CMA now. I think it is still 50:50. Could go either way.

Mainly because we don't know what Microsoft offered and how the CMA is interpreting it.

Why on earth would developers and workers from Xbox and ABK say welcome to the family, or their working for Microsoft next week on twitter, if its not a done deal? No way they would comment on twitter without it being certain. Just doesn't make sense. They would keep quite if it wasn't a sure thing. Deal looks great!

 

[havoc00]

They would probably have to force divestment if they try to close over the CMA's decision.

I think if they give tons of concessions over the cloud that would appease the cma? who knows this whole thing has been going on for way too long has had wayy to many turns tons of speculation etc... Its fun to talk about and kill time on but in the end we will find out like anyone else who knows lol

 

[Heisenberg007]

Why on earth would developers and workers from Xbox and ABK say welcome to the family, or their working for Microsoft next week on twitter, if its not a done deal? No way they would comment on twitter without it being certain. Just doesn't make sense. They would keep quite if it wasn't a sure thing. Deal looks great!

Because the worker is stupid or just wants to suck balls? You think a studio worker would be privy to what's happening in negotiations with a regulatory body? lol.

They haven't closed the acquisition yet. So any "welcome to family" tweet is premature as is.

Deal looks good, sure, but you're forgetting that it is still officially blocked.

 

[TrueGrime]

Did they know they were just outgunned? Or are they just incompetent?

100% incompetence.

MS notified the FTC of the deal in Feb 2022.
FTC waited until Dec 2022 to file an admin complaint of the deal.
They then set an administrative hearing for Aug 2023, after the deal termination date.
Then they finally waited and finally filed for the PI June 2023.

The fuck were they doing since Feb 2022 to have just the weakest arguments imaginable during the hearing.

 

[havoc00]

Not necessarily. The CMA's order is still to block the acquisition. It is up to Microsoft to suggest a solution that would be acceptable to the CMA, i.e., either an divestment of Activision (less likely) or something similar that achieves the same effect (more likely).

If the CMA rejects it, however, then Microsoft can't close it no matter how badly they want it.

Isnt the cloud the huge hold up? MS will def concede on that if need be to close, I dont think divestment will happen and if the cma demands that with all other remedies MS will propose and others approving it doesnt that give MS some leverage if comes to an appeal? I mean by that time the deal might be dead

 

[Solidus_T]

Why on earth would developers and workers from Xbox and ABK say welcome to the family, or their working for Microsoft next week on twitter, if its not a done deal? No way they would comment on twitter without it being certain. Just doesn't make sense. They would keep quite if it wasn't a sure thing. Deal looks great!

There was so much "welcome to the family" in January last year lol that doesn't mean anything until they actually close.

 

[DForce]

I think if they give tons of concessions over the cloud that would appease the cma? who knows this whole thing has been going on for way too long has had wayy to many turns tons of speculation etc... Its fun to talk about and kill time on but in the end we will find out like anyone else who knows lol

They asked for divestment of Call of Duty in their final report, so anything less would be due to political pressure because I don't see any other reason why they would set such a high bar and then lower it dramatically.

Yes, there's tons of speculation.

The deal will probably pass, but I'm just saying it's not 100% clear and CMA's decision could either kill this deal if it doesn't go MS' way.

 

[havoc00]

They asked for divestment of Call of Duty in their final report, so anything less would be due to political pressure because I don't see any other reason why they would set such a high bar and then lower it dramatically.

Yes, there's tons of speculation.

The deal will probably pass, but I'm just saying it's not 100% clear and CMA's decision could either kill this deal if it doesn't go MS' way.

if MS makes concessions and says cod is non negotiable could they win in the UK on appeal on that? I mean by that time the deal may be dead but would they have merit? What if MS offered a 20 year deal from 10 etc...?

 

[POKEYCLYDE]

About an hour til the TRO expires? Though doubt we will see anything happen until Monday.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Isnt the cloud the huge hold up? MS will def concede on that if need be to close, I dont think divestment will happen and if the cma demands that with all other remedies MS will propose and others approving it doesnt that give MS some leverage if comes to an appeal? I mean by that time the deal might be dead

The only issue the Cloud, yes. But it still depends on if MS offers satisfies the CMA.

For example, there is a strong possibility that CMA's actual problem is MS owning the COD IP. There is evidence of that in the remedies they initially offered in their PF. They said MS can close the acquisition if they divest COD. The divestment of Activision comes from the fact that COD can't operate without Activision. The CMA also said that if Blizzard is crucial to COD production as is, then MS will also have to divest Blizzard.

Point is Microsoft's reported offer to separate xCloud from GPU or separate Activision Cloud game license to another 3rd party company may or may not achieve the same result as the divestment of Activision and, therefore, may or may not be satisfactory to the CMA. No one knows.

 

[havoc00]

The only issue the Cloud, yes. But it still depends on if MS offers satisfies the CMA.

For example, there is a strong possibility that CMA's actual problem is MS owning the COD IP. There is evidence of that in the remedies they initially offered in their PF. They said MS can close the acquisition if they divest COD. The divestment of Activision comes from the fact that COD can't operate without Activision. The CMA also said that if Blizzard is crucial to COD production as is, then MS will also have to divest Blizzard.

Point is Microsoft's reported offer to separate xCloud from GPU or separate Activision Cloud game license to another 3rd party company may or may not achieve the same result as the divestment of Activision and, therefore, may or may not be satisfactory to the CMA. No one knows.

Its def all a crap shoot, but the recent stuff has lead me to believe that MS and CMA has been communicating and if both sides concede some things this will be settled and but again who knows. Still fun to observe and talk about

 

[Ginzeen]

Because the worker is stupid or just wants to suck balls? You think a studio worker would be privy to what's happening in negotiations with a regulatory body? lol.

They haven't closed the acquisition yet. So any "welcome to family" tweet is premature as is.

Deal looks good, sure, but you're forgetting that it is still officially blocked.

i disagree. Other workers are also saying the deal is good . Seems to be so dumb to announce it prematurely. its possible i guess, but very low odds. Very low odds.

 

[havoc00]

i disagree. Other workers are also saying the deal is good . Seems to be so dumb to announce it prematurely. its possible i guess, but very low odds. Very low odds.

Nothing will move me either way until this is done, although at this point it seems favorable for ms

 

[havoc00]

BOBBY wins again BTFO out of the 9th

 

[Ginzeen]

The only issue the Cloud, yes. But it still depends on if MS offers satisfies the CMA.

For example, there is a strong possibility that CMA's actual problem is MS owning the COD IP. There is evidence of that in the remedies they initially offered in their PF. They said MS can close the acquisition if they divest COD. The divestment of Activision comes from the fact that COD can't operate without Activision. The CMA also said that if Blizzard is crucial to COD production as is, then MS will also have to divest Blizzard.

Point is Microsoft's reported offer to separate xCloud from GPU or separate Activision Cloud game license to another 3rd party company may or may not achieve the same result as the divestment of Activision and, therefore, may or may not be satisfactory to the CMA. No one knows.

Divesting COD is not happening. Not even a possibility at this point. We would still have the CAT hearing. Divesting COD and Blizzard means the deal is dead lol. MS/ABK walks away

 

[Mozza]

I think this whole sorry state of affairs demonstrates just how little the FTC understands the business it's attempting to regulate.

 

[Heisenberg007]

i disagree. Other workers are also saying the deal is good . Seems to be so dumb to announce it prematurely. its possible i guess, but very low odds. Very low odds.

That's why Microsoft hasn't announced it yet.

A person, even though he is a worker, can share whatever his personal opinions are on his personal Twitter account. That doesn't bind the company nor is that a reflection of anything. Unless you see an official announcement from a Microsoft company account, nothing has changed officially.

 

[DeVeAn]

They should probably talk to… you know Square Enix about that. Clearly have enough money to get any third party they want.

Seems like strong arm method would work better considering the situation now.

 

[DForce]

if MS makes concessions and says cod is non negotiable could they win in the UK on appeal on that? I mean by that time the deal may be dead but would they have merit? What if MS offered a 20 year deal from 10 etc...?

11.17 In the Remedies Notice, we set out the following structural remedy options: (a) prohibition of the Merger; and (b) requiring a partial divestiture of Activision Blizzard, Inc. We noted that this could involve:

(i) Divestiture of the business associated with CoD (Call of Duty);
(ii) Divestiture of the Activision segment of Activision Blizzard, Inc. (the Activision segment), which would include the business associated with CoD; or
(iii) Divestiture of the Activision segment and the Blizzard segment (the Blizzard segment) of Activision Blizzard, Inc., which would include the business associated with CoD and WoW (World of Warcraft), among other titles.

They stated many reasons why the 10-year deals weren't sufficient enough and I don't believe 20 years would change that. After looking at everything, the CMA listed 3 possible options in order to pass this deal.


All still remains to be seen.

My guess is that the CMA will need more time and ABK will agree to an extension while they try to settle with the CMA.

 

[DryvBy]

Divesting COD is not happening. Not even a possibility at this point. We would still have the CAT hearing. Divesting COD and Blizzard means the deal is dead lol. MS/ABK walks away

Why is that? Go back to page 1 and read all the clown talk about how this is really about King. Lol

 

[havoc00]

They stated many reasons why the 10-year deals weren't sufficient enough and I don't believe 20 years would change that. After looking at everything, the CMA listed 3 possible options in order to pass this deal.


All still remains to be seen.

My guess is that the CMA will need more time and ABK will agree to an extension while they try to settle with the CMA.

could MS appeal this if they make concessions over the cloud and eventually win in the UK?

 

[Ginzeen]

That's why Microsoft hasn't announced it yet.

A person, even though he is a worker, can share whatever his personal opinions are on his personal Twitter account. That doesn't bind the company nor is that a reflection of anything. Unless you see an official announcement from a Microsoft company account, nothing has changed officially.

fair enough, but im very certain this is over.

 

[Hero of Spielberg]

could MS appeal this if they make concessions over the cloud and eventually win in the UK?

I think given recent happenings that CMA would read the writing on the wall and see that basically being the only agency to block the deal isn’t a good look and would weaken their position at CAT. I could well be wrong but the fact that MS and CMA paused the CAT process and then the CMA have now extended their ‘deadline’ points to things being worked out behind the scenes and a general understanding of what a resolution looks like.

As above, it’s a really bad look for the UK if they don’t work something out now. Political pressure would pile on and regardless of independence from political influence car by case, there would be serious questions asked about whether changes to the CMA are necessary if they weren’t able to come to a resolution.

 

[DForce]

could MS appeal this if they make concessions over the cloud and eventually win in the UK?

MS was blocked and then they appeal the CMA's decision with the CAT.

MS agreed to pause (or stopped) the appeal and offered new concessions to the CMA which they're now going over. This may require another review that will take until August to complete.

But as I said before, I think people in the government are shady and the CMA might be pressured into taking a small deal and passing it.

 

[Varteras]

It's funny that the CMA and FTC met 26 times and instead of following the CMA's lead about cloud and not focusing on CoD, which the CMA subsequently dropped months ago, they decided to go rogue and completely make an ass out of themselves in one of the biggest cases they'll ever face.

That will forever perplex me. They could have ran with the CMA's playbook on cloud gaming. They could have pointed to a myriad of consolidation concerns that would impact all consumers and even developers. Both of those infinitely more valid than console concerns. Instead they went, "Derp! What about Sony"?!. The judge was right to basically say, "Who gives a fuck"??

 

[Mozza]

Like I said from my very first post, this deal will go through with some minor caveats. Money will always talk at the end of the day, and there is far too much of it involved in this deal. Yes it was certain that certain regulators were going to put on a show for us, to of course indicate they are concerned about the market etc etc....... and to appease Sony, who no matter what anybody says, were the main opposition to this, not without a valid reason of course, but have hid behind the regulators, and naturally only did it for the good of the industry, or more truthfully their own business interests.

 

[Alex Scott]

They asked for divestment of Call of Duty in their final report, so anything less would be due to political pressure because I don't see any other reason why they would set such a high bar and then lower it dramatically.

Yes, there's tons of speculation.

The deal will probably pass, but I'm just saying it's not 100% clear and CMA's decision could either kill this deal if it doesn't go MS' way.

They didn't ask for divestment of CoD. Only remedy they propose was prohibition.

 

[Hero of Spielberg]

That will forever perplex me. They could have ran with the CMA's playbook on cloud gaming. They could have pointed to a myriad of consolidation concerns that would impact all consumers and even developers. Both of those infinitely more valid than console concerns. Instead they went, "Derp! What about Sony"?!. The judge was right to basically say, "Who gives a fuck"??

For all the FTCs incompetence I’m sure there are reasons they didn’t go down the cloud path. IMO it’s not a very strong case to make given the relatively small size of the cloud market, the fact it’s basically an add on to GP and depending on how you calculate the numbers it’s difficult to prove any sort of monopolistic outcome for the cloud from this deal.

The CMA basically went in with an argument that opposed it on every front and they were whittled down to the cloud SLC … it was strategic, and effective for their set up but not so much for the FTC

 

[93xfan]

Explain that Sony owns Square Enix, yes.

That Sony needs to release SE from any exclusive deals they have for those games.

I keep hearing about these PCs that play those games.

Thanks for showing twice that you aren’t worth my time.

 

[DForce]

They didn't ask for divestment of CoD. Only remedy they propose was prohibition.

They did ask for a divestiture

(i) Divestiture of the business associated with CoD (Call of Duty);
(ii) Divestiture of the Activision segment of Activision Blizzard, Inc. (the Activision segment), which would include the business associated with CoD; or
(iii) Divestiture of the Activision segment and the Blizzard segment (the Blizzard segment) of Activision Blizzard, Inc., which would include the business associated with CoD and WoW (World of Warcraft), among other titles.

 

[93xfan]

Sony may have their own deal. But owning activision isn’t going to give Microsoft leverage to get square games. That’s up to square.

If there’s a deal between sony and SE, then sony would need to release SE from that deal.

Of course the next step is to get SE to then release the games. No shit.

 

[Godot25]

So. It's finally over.

Even if Microsoft won't reach deal with CMA on Monday I can't imagine the option of this deal falling through.

Honestly. Whole process was way entertaining than I would have thought.

And the funniest shit is that Sony could have marketing rights for COD with "no Game Pass" provision for longer but dumb Jimbo refused.

 

[Hero of Spielberg]

This A arvfab account behaviour seems familiar… Ezekiel is that you?

 

[Alex Scott]

They did ask for a divestiture

That was because of console SLC. THey dropped that.
In the final report they only mention complete prohibition as the only remedy.

 

[Mozza]

So. It's finally over.

Even if Microsoft won't reach deal with CMA on Monday I can't imagine the option of this deal falling through.

Honestly. Whole process was way entertaining than I would have thought.

And the funniest shit is that Sony could have marketing rights for COD with "no Game Pass" provision for longer but dumb Jimbo refused.

Jimbo took the cancel the deal option, he chose poorly.

 

[93xfan]

100% incompetence.

MS notified the FTC of the deal in Feb 2022.
FTC waited until Dec 2022 to file an admin complaint of the deal.
They then set an administrative hearing for Aug 2023, after the deal termination date.
Then they finally waited and finally filed for the PI June 2023.

The fuck were they doing since Feb 2022 to have just the weakest arguments imaginable during the hearing.

Coming here to get ammo for their case. The confidence of the Sony fans around here made them think they had some really solid arguments.

 

[Godot25]

100% incompetence.

MS notified the FTC of the deal in Feb 2022.
FTC waited until Dec 2022 to file an admin complaint of the deal.
They then set an administrative hearing for Aug 2023, after the deal termination date.
Then they finally waited and finally filed for the PI June 2023.

The fuck were they doing since Feb 2022 to have just the weakest arguments imaginable during the hearing.

They were just doing what they are always doing lately. Stalling until other regulatory body won't block the deal and then X company will abandon deal and FTC can claim victory.

It was just to put Microsoft into such an untenable situation that they would drop merger because they knew that they won't win thanks to facts.

So it wasn't incompetence.. It was designed to put as much pressure on Microsoft as possible. Incompetence part was fact that they had more than year to prepare and they embarrassed themselves in front of court

 

[otakuninja2006]

Sony DOES NOT own Square Enix.

 

[Red5]

Every country wants to be seen as business friendly to attract foreign investments and companies, part of the reason I think that with FTC and EU tapping out, the UK gov will exercise behind the scenes pressure on the CMA, the UK wouldn't want to be seen as bad for business. Which is unfortunate.

 

[DForce]

That was because of console SLC. THey dropped that.
In the final report they only mention complete prohibition as the only remedy.

Ok, this right here?

Final decision on remedies

We have decided that prohibition of the Merger would be an effective and proportionate remedy to address the SLC in the market for cloud gaming services in the UK and its resulting adverse effects.

 

[demigod]

i disagree. Other workers are also saying the deal is good . Seems to be so dumb to announce it prematurely. its possible i guess, but very low odds. Very low odds.

Found pappylicious’ account.

 

[Alex Scott]

Ok, this right here?

Yes

 

[WilliamB]

I can’t say whether MS will push this through without CMA approval, but I’m saying CMA will not bow down to political pressure. And that’s what makes this so interesting for me.

I think they did but let's see what is going to happen in the next weeks.

 

[Negotiator101]

Every country wants to be seen as business friendly to attract foreign investments and companies, part of the reason I think that with FTC and EU tapping out, the UK gov will exercise behind the scenes pressure on the CMA, the UK wouldn't want to be seen as bad for business. Which is unfortunate.

Yes was reading that the government have the power to overturn the CMA but I can't imagine they would. A deal is looking likely now though but when is this to happen? Have Microsoft extended the deadline?

 

[GHG]

Shareholders makes a vote, not decision.
Top brass and their lawyers do the decision. If shareholders agree to it, the negotiation becomes effective.

GHG is expert in this field.

Don't hold me up as some kind of "expert", I'm just some guy.

My opinion is that they close the deal regardless of what the CMA have to say, it will probably be done and dusted before the case management meeting.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

Yes was reading that the government have the power to overturn the CMA

They don't

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

 

[GHG]

And the funniest shit is that Sony could have marketing rights for COD with "no Game Pass" provision for longer but dumb Jimbo refused.

So what you're essentially saying is that you hoped Sony would help fund this acquisition for Microsoft by giving them marketing deal money and ensuring over 60% of the userbase for COD is guaranteed to remain?

Never going to happen.

 

[Negotiator101]

They don't

Fair enough don't know what bullshit I was reading then

 

[Negotiator101]

So what you're essentially saying is that you hoped Sony would help fund this acquisition for Microsoft by giving them marketing deal money and ensuring over 60% of the userbase for COD is guaranteed to remain?

Never going to happen.

I don't think Microsoft needs help funding anything.