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Geoff Keighley - Video games: evolving and changing Revenue for Big Publishers are Happening Less From Premium AAA Games

Kimahri

Banned
good. i love f2p games because i can play them with my friends. i understand that most users here don't have friends though and like to play $70 6/10 singleplayer games though.
I love getting life coaching from 14 year olds with no disposable income ❤
 

ZywyPL

Banned
AAA games are simply unsustainable.

Even big publishers can't risk anymore for a game which should sell 4M copies to cover the costs since they must sell at the same price they had in 1998.

No wonder they often rely on DLCs, and then microtransactions, and then loot boxes, and they will surely invent another trickery find money. Is NFT the next step?

Depends on the game. Not longer than 10-15 years ago something like 2-4M copies sold was a huge number, 5-6M was considered as a massive commercial success, and today we are seeing games reaching 10, 15, even 20MLN copies sold. Plus further income from eventual DLCs. And we see all that reflected in the companies record profits stated each quarter. What I'm trying to say is, the game simply has to be good, has to have that something that will lure the crowd towards it, something that will build hype, and nothing else will really matter. Sure, maybe the production cost did get higher as the publishers say, but the question is how much of those costs go for the marketing and how much the actual development? With free media platforms like YT, IG, FB, Twitch, Twitter etc. they can advertise their titles as much as they want totally for free, and yet most AAA publishers hesitate to drop a proper gameplay of their game, and then wonder why it didn't sell as they would want to...
 

MayauMiao

Member
AAA games don't make much money like it used to. More new gamers I see nowadays are using mobile phones to meet their needs for fun than console simply due to cheap ass games, portability and more recognizable games among their peers.
 

I still can't get my head around why people are so eager to buy DLCs and character skins etc.

These companies invest a lot of money into market research etc so if Ubisoft is really going for a more free to play model then they must figure that giving the base game away for free means more revenue in end.

Kind of like how consoles used to sell at a loss because they'd make more software sales and eventually more profit that way.

So now the console sells at a loss and the software sells at a loss but the in game store makes all the money.
 

TwiztidElf

Member
xx8A6Y5.jpg
 

Guilty_AI

Member
I don't think this is a good strategy for Ubisoft honestly, or at least i don't think they'd execute it the right way.
Regardless, i don't really care, their games haven't been anything to write home about for a long time. Also, i don't think they meant as in "we're completely abandoning premium price projects", just as in "we'll release them less frequently".
 
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Guilty_AI

Member
Who’s going to pay for them? Do you read and hear the ridiculous complaining about pricing? We’re surrounded by 77 inch oled having, 2 nextgen console owners with a $2000 graphics card in their PC that are waiting for game prices to fall before they buy.
It'd be less of a problem if these $70 games were actually worth their price tag.
 

harmny

Banned
I love getting life coaching from 14 year olds with no disposable income ❤

Money is not a problem for me. But it is for my friends. Not because they don't have disposable income but because they don't want to spend it on games.

So it's much easier to get everyone together when the game is free. I can convince them to pay for a game if I really like it and i think it's worth it but when the game is f2p it's just automatic.
"Hey guys download this game. It's free" "sure great"
 

FrankWza

Member
It'd be less of a problem if these $70 games were actually worth their price tag.
Then you missed the point entirely. What are you doing with that tech if you’re not playing any AAA games? If you have all that tech, what is ever going to be the point? You’re waiting for the latest and greatest to be cheaper so it’s not the latest and greatest anymore? Why would I wait for ratchet to be $20 or come to PS plus when by that time it will be surpassed by another game? The thing is, people now buy consoles and TVs for status instead of being hobby enthusiasts. So, they have cutting edge tech with zero new content. The day one content is where developers and creatives make their money to show investors that their next project is a viable one. Same point can be made that if you love movies you need to go to theaters. There’s a place for everything but everything also needs to be supported.
 

Ascend

Member
AAA games have generally become simply boring and predictable. There is very little innovation involved, and too much appeasing of SJW and the woke. Gamers have also been used as a cash cow, trying to release yearly titles for certain franchises, rather than release a good product. Obviously, interest will wane after time.

I would argue that the games like PUBG, Overwatch and Fortnite are successful because of some sort of innovation, i.e. novelty, which is clearly lacking in the AAA space, bar a few exceptions.
 

kyussman

Member
You can't argue with those figures form EA...only a quarter of their money from actual game sales,that's nuts.
The truth is right now people have bought into the live service/dlc model and are spending big on it.
I'm well into my forties now and I enjoy narrative based single player games more than ever before....but the younger generations are all about video games being a social past time,and that's just how it is...times change.
I'll enjoy what single player stuff comes along(and I think there will still be plenty tbh),but I can see this gen possibly being the last one where I game a lot....that's probably just a combination of me heading into my 50's and modern gaming trends being something that don't interest me much.
 

Ascend

Member
One always has to ask how Nintendo can sell pretty much everything, but the rest of the publishers can't.
 

Guilty_AI

Member
Then you missed the point entirely. What are you doing with that tech if you’re not playing any AAA games? If you have all that tech, what is ever going to be the point? You’re waiting for the latest and greatest to be cheaper so it’s not the latest and greatest anymore? Why would I wait for ratchet to be $20 or come to PS plus when by that time it will be surpassed by another game? The thing is, people now buy consoles and TVs for status instead of being hobby enthusiasts. So, they have cutting edge tech with zero new content. The day one content is where developers and creatives make their money to show investors that their next project is a viable one. Same point can be made that if you love movies you need to go to theaters. There’s a place for everything but everything also needs to be supported.
a) The latest, most expensive and newest aren't the only ones benefiting from the new tech. Plenty of people getting a PS5 just so they can play their older games at 60fps or stable frame rates with faster loading times.

b) Why wait for certain games to be cheaper? Its as i said, cause often they just aren't worth their original price.

c) Surpassed by another game? Games aren't iphones, a truly good game stays good even years later. I didn't thought any less of original Deus Ex just because Human Revolution, Mankind Divided or Cyberpunk 2077 exist. In fact, it can still be superior to these newer titles in many aspects.

d) There probably are people like that, but i honestly think hobby enthusiasts aren't as eager to play the newest AAA titles as you think.

e) That isn't necessarely where they make their money. Even among paid games there are loads of different strategies and approaches besides first 2 weeks sales.

f) I'll support what i think deserves to be supported. I think modern AAA games have grown stale, uncreative, boring and now overpriced for the actual content they have. I won't pay $70 for a game when i can buy something with similar premise, more polished mechanics, better designed, better stories and far more content for $25 - $30.
 
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ZywyPL

Banned
One always has to ask how Nintendo can sell pretty much everything, but the rest of the publishers can't.

Well with close to no 3rd party/indie support Switch owners can either play whatever Nintendo throws at them or don't play anything at all, so the choice is rather obvious. Nintendo created a platform/market where they have complete monopoly.
 

Evil Calvin

Afraid of Boobs
The AAA industry is dying. Only F2P games and sequels, reboots and remakes. If there is no innovation or new IP's, then down the road there will will be nothing but rehashed crap.
Indie games will still thrive but even then, those games rehash the same stuff too. Very little originality. Just look at the games released in the 2000's----very few sequels, spin-offs or remakes----not much originality these days!

Notes:
 
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MastaKiiLA

Member
Well, that's one way to setup a market crash. Saturate the market with freemium crap, so that only select titles succeed enough to generate sustainable revenue. Might make some mid-sized players cheap enough for Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo to scoop up in the coming years. Not sure this is the future of gaming anyone wants. Especially when one of the companies championing this shift holds a bunch of sports franchises. It will be impossible to remove loot boxes from those games now. MLB will be the only remaining sports franchise that hasn't turned into a fucking casino.
 

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
I dream of a day when players judge games based on the quality of it's game design rather than the amount of money they have to lose to play it.

This thread is bonkers with some of these replies.
 

CAB_Life

Member
Don't worry, single player games aren't going anywhere. There is a demand and a lot of developer/publisher know that.
And not to mention we are talking about EA and Ubisoft here.
Except they are going the way of the dodo, that much should be clear. AAA single-player cinematic experiences will become niche titles in a decade or so--definitely within our lifetimes. There's just too much money to be had in live service titles. Even Sony, who are arguably the premier purveyor of this kind of software, have recently been investing in/ exploring service titles.
 

DGrayson

Mod Team and Bat Team
Staff Member
Its whatever. Its disappointing but its not a surprise or anythign.

I love playing retro games and I like indie games so i am sure there will be plenty of things for me to play going forward. But I dont ever see myself getting suck[er]ed into this new style of gaming.
 

justiceiro

Marlboro: Other M
Long time coming really. One must be blind if didn't saw this already. I say I rather see the companies try to rip off some individuals that doesn't value their money than ripping off all individuals trying to game a little.
 

Derktron

Banned
That is their fault, if they would actually make games that are good and not broken this would not be an issue where companies like Ubisoft are changing their projections because of lack of "revenue" and somehow making f2p games will help solve that issue. That is only a temp solution, not a long-term solution.
 

Derktron

Banned
One always has to ask how Nintendo can sell pretty much everything, but the rest of the publishers can't.
Because believe it or not, Nintendo is the Apple of videogames, they are a brand that everyone can go to for simple games. That is why they lasted longer than these companies have.
 
good. i love f2p games because i can play them with my friends. i understand that most users here don't have friends though and like to play $70 6/10 singleplayer games though.

I hate grinding. One day you wake up and realize this is like a job, completing tasks for rewards over and over again with small variances, and have to determine if you want to live life that way. I chose not to live my entertainment like work.
 

IDKFA

I am Become Bilbo Baggins
It's the way the industry is heading. More F2P games packed with MTX and loot boxes. Hardly surprising when a publisher like EA makes a billion dollars from FIFA UT alone.

I'm probably part of the problem. Not only do I spend money on UT and MTX in other F2P games, but I'm also someone who would love every game to be released on Gamepass on day one, even if it meant a majority of games being flooded with loot boxes and MTX etc. As long as I don't need to spend £70 for a single game then I don't care.
 

AJUMP23

Member
They have an obligation to their shareholders to make money. But there will still be plenty of games for all types of players.
 
I can’t say I’m surprised however to me there is a lack of an inability to look within from some publishers , instead of making games better they look to trends. A lot of people don’t have endless cash to spend on games or the time and some devs clearly don’t respect the players time either.

Assassins Creed for example, does it have to be that bloated or such a copy and paste template? Valhalla , Synchronise areas is still a thing and most missions resort to the same raid the castle to take over. It’s copy and paste. It becomes monotonous.

Avengers is another one, there’s almost a scent of a good game, then it hits you with the same copy and paste mission design. I mean don’t developers ever think players will get bored with repeat after repeat of the same objective? Where is the objectivity to think outside the box? Instead the gamer gets the brunt for a lack of originality or desires to take risks.

Then we have people who would rather watch and give money to people who stream themselves playing a game and get substantial donations in the process.

And one of the worst for me is release now , fix later. I don’t like that at all. Sea of Thieves, not a great launch and I hear it’s much better now however it should be as good as it can be at launch not years later.

Reading that Kolbrille guy (sorry if I spelt that wrong) he’s hinting at a few live service games in development at Microsoft. Being a big Xbox fan I don’t like that at all. With Gamepass I can see it being used as an excuse, “hey it didn’t cost me nothing it’s fine, everything will patched, updated later”
“Who cares if the game is shite, it didn’t cost me anything” e.g Crackdown 3.

Sorry for the long rant , it just pisses me off at times some of the blatant shit that goes on.
 

harmny

Banned
I hate grinding. One day you wake up and realize this is like a job, completing tasks for rewards over and over again with small variances, and have to determine if you want to live life that way. I chose not to live my entertainment like work.

Yeah I don't like grinding either that's why we don't grind. If it gets boring we move on to the next f2p game
 
Yeah I don't like grinding either that's why we don't grind. If it gets boring we move on to the next f2p game

It’s probably accurate to say that I like reaching a conclusion in a game. I’m more of a Nintendo/retro/Indie type player. I prefer games that have great gameplay with minimal cinematics. The perfect game length for me in probably 10 hours or less.
 

FrankWza

Member
a) The latest, most expensive and newest aren't the only ones benefiting from the new tech.
So nothing else you wrote applies to what I was referring to then. My original point is, there is no point in not only buying a new console, but purchasing a whole lotta new tech to play old games. Day 1 AAA is the best way to maximize what you’ve spent if you have day 1 new consoles, expensive graphics cards and high end displays. Otherwise, you’re fine with 1 of the 3 as you mentioned. Get a PS5 and play games at 60fps on a 1080p tv. But if you’re going all out. You have both consoles, expensive cars, nice display….you’re going to complain that games are too expensive to purchase day 1 and a game is too short for $70? Come on.
 

Roni

Gold Member
Last time I checked most people bought the game on one of these two platforms:

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Cyberpunk perfectly fits your description. What did they charge for it again? It's unfortunate.

So now F2P games from EA are the solution to the problem? It's an interesting transition, that's for sure.
56% of retail sales were on PC... For me that means most bought it on PC.

 
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Yoda

Member
There's only so much room in the market for blockbuster live service games, significantly less so than AAA games. If Ubisoft's game didn't feel like factory output they'd sell far better.
 

yugoluke

Member
I remain curious but concerned.

As I am generally an optimist I will try to think of some positives.

Perhaps certain annualized AAA franchises will stop being annualized and have more time to be developed and made better. I think it became pretty clear that these studios that had annual franchises were already treating them as Games as a Service (GAAS). And I generally disliked GAAS in my single player games. I think this move clears the way for them to have clearly defined barriers between their GAAS games (looter shooter, multiplayer) and those without GAAS features (single player games). I am almost certain that sales of singleplayer games with GAAS vs single player games without GAAS would show that sales would favour the single player games without GAAS.

With a decrease in annual releases, perhaps the reliance on formulaic mechanics that are copied and pasted between franchises (a result of annualized releases) will decrease. Perhaps with added development time and more infrequent releases, studios will feel more comfortable to change core mechanics and actually innovate.

Pretty much all games with a multiplayer component will be come F2P. Very low barrier to entry for friends to group up and play together. Perhaps this applies to coop experiences as well.

Single player experiences will become much more differentiated as a result of less being developed on the whole. Perhaps our enjoyment of certain franchises might increase as a result of actually having a decent break between releases of entries in certain franchises.


So there you have it. I know I am trying to polish a turd, hoping for a diamond, but whatever. Maybe this can lead to something positive.
 

yugoluke

Member
I would be happy with Ubisoft limiting the frequency of their AAA games and allowed them to go all in (GTA style) on a massive single player (with depth and polish) and a live service component (if it makes sense).

So give an Assassin's Creed every 5 years, A Division every 5 years, A Far Cry every 5 years, A Watch Dogs every 5 years, allow each of those time to breathe and then flesh out your catalogue with more experimental new IPs (like Immortals Fenyx Rising) that may one day warrant AAA expansion, but could also find a niche at the lower tier.

Also allow each game to feel unique rather than the cookie cutter collectathon that they have been somewhat guilty of in the past.

With R* games I am excited, but I suffer from franchise fatigue for almost all Ubisoft games and end up skipping them even if they review pretty well, eventually playing them if they end up on PS+, PSNow or Gamepass. This to me is sad because they are all franchisees that I was excited by at one point in time.
This was a point I made in my post as well. Perhaps less frequent releases will actually lead to an increase in quality of the fewer single player games that do get released.
 

Trogdor1123

Member
It's a bit ironic, I would have been a "whale" when there was no f2p stuff but as the moved that way I spent less.

Now, I probably spend just a bit more than normal people and with this trend it will probably continue to dwindle.
 
You mentioned FH4 has mtx already those are actually not that bad but you can't be serious that my take is off the mark with MS' strategy

Gears 5


Halo 5

To buy

Sea of Thieves

What AAA first party game from MS doesn't have microtransactions like this? These are MS's biggest franchises Forza, Halo, Gears all with mtxs. Rare was converted to a studio working on microtransaction avatars during 360 and now microtransaction GaaS games for game pass.

Why couldn't any of these studios you listed make a xbox Series console launch game?

Because they were not pushed to. Even if all these studios were too busy. Why couldn't MS hire an external dev studio to make a launch game knowing that they would be releasing a console. They don't care that's why. As phil said that's not their strategy.
They are concentrating on a platform agnostic game release and MS couldn't care less about what you play on just as long as you are paying the sub and spending in their games. EA access was also full of games without a focus on MTX initially but what do you think this model encourages after the initail building the library? Be honest.

Halo Infinite

The big publishers are moving to this model. EA has already, MS have already, Ubisoft is doing it.


I haven't really played Gears enough at all to comment on it but I played a ton of Halo Warzone and never spent a dime and was never at a competitive disadvantage. That was my fav Halo game mode and with some better maps would have been truly amazing (a couple were good, rest were meh). Felt like they really found the right way to balance their system there. And with Sea of Theives everything is cosmetic with no bearing on gameplay so again, I don't see the big deal there. I don't mind any game having cosmetic only mtx.
 

Punished Miku

Gold Member
There's only so much room in the market for blockbuster live service games, significantly less so than AAA games. If Ubisoft's game didn't feel like factory output they'd sell far better.
Exactly. They're not that far off from MMOs. There's only so many rat races you can race in before all your time is taken up. Every publisher will rush to get a foot in the door before it inevitably closes.
 

e&e

Banned
Do any of you old timers remember when early home video games aimed "to bring the arcade experience home"? We all thought they were talking about the games' complexity and audiovisual fidelity. Now, after all these years, it seems like they really just wanted to bring the coin slot home, so you could continually feed money into the game.
Mindblown.gif

We’ve come full circle!
 
I have totally outgrown SP games so F2P AAA sounds fantastic to me. SP campaign games are a borefest and generally a big hassle designed for socially awkward teenagers.
I agree. Games were a passable form to do storytelling back in the 90's and early 00's. As time goes by, it's just become more apparent that gaming as a medium for storytelling just doesn't cut it anymore.

Sure the graphics look better, but that's not the issue. The issue for me is that the AI and mechanics simply weren't able to keep up. So no matter how good the game looks, the npc's are all doing the same stupid shit over and over again. At a bare minimum to keep me even remotely interested, their has to be a heavy focus on something besides progressing the story.

People that live on these singleplayer offerings are beyond me. After the first week, I could play something like Warzone for 5 hours and while there's repetitive gameplay there, I could easily spend the vast majority of those 5 hrs having unique experiences. I could play a singleplayer story driven game, but I'm going through the same levels, and encountering the exact same npc's as I've already done.

The people here placing their bets on Sony to save the day are in for disappointment. Ryan has already said that they intend to put a stronger emphasis on multiplayer games. EA and Ubi both used to make decent singleplayer games, but eventually the formula gets old. The same will happen to Sony if they can't innovate how their singleplayer games play.
 

MastaKiiLA

Member
Long time coming really. One must be blind if didn't saw this already. I say I rather see the companies try to rip off some individuals that doesn't value their money than ripping off all individuals trying to game a little.
The problem is that the F2P model had a tendency to become pay to win. It doesn't happen with every game, but if you look at the mobile landscape, you'll see that a good chunk of these freemium games encourage whaling by building in these P2W mechanics like packages that either increase your spins of the roulette wheel, or outright give you materials that can be used to build your character/team. Mind you, the only game I currently play as I wait for a PS5 is Dragonsky on my phone, and that is a P2W game. Everything from auto-play to make the F2P timer less obnoxious, to packages that give you currency. And when you look at the leaderboards, it's all whales at the top, then dolphins next, with a few OG players who happened to start at the beginning, and commit massive amounts of active playing hours each week. The Korean and Taiwanese whales have insane team builds, so much so that the devs added an extra class to the game that F2P players will never hope to unlock unless they play the game a solid 18 months. And even then, they'd only be able to unlock the class, and not even build any of the characters.

That's kinda the dread I'm filled with when I hear a console dev say they want to embrace the F2P model. That or just saturating the market with generic versions of the same type of game, where you end up with communities coming and going based on what the latest fad is, rather than actual ownership of a game. When you buy a game, you generally play feel encouraged to play it more completely. Anyway, I mostly play Sony first-party and indie games, so I doubt I have to worry about anything. However, if this is where the industry as a whole is headed, then my gaming days are probably numbered.
 

GhostOfTsu

Banned
Returnal and Resident Evil 8 just came out and they are single player. Show your support and buy them instead of complaining the industry stopped making these games (?). Ratchet is coming soon. Far Cry 6 too.

A few weeks ago people were attacking Sony because all they make are AAA Blockbusters and now they are begging them to continue. Make up your damn minds.
 

TLZ

Banned
Do any of you old timers remember when early home video games aimed "to bring the arcade experience home"? We all thought they were talking about the games' complexity and audiovisual fidelity. Now, after all these years, it seems like they really just wanted to bring the coin slot home, so you could continually feed money into the game.
Well when you out it like that... heh.
 
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mr.dilya

Banned
Good.

I’m really hoping for another video game crash. The industry needs an enema. And those of us who aren’t basement dwellers can go a few years without any new video games if it translates into a overhaul. AAA gaming needs to DIE. It’s all woke and pandering bullshit now anyway. Destroy and rebuild.
 
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Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
I have totally outgrown SP games so F2P AAA sounds fantastic to me. SP campaign games are a borefest and generally a big hassle designed for socially awkward teenagers.

This man speaks the truth.

There is a massive issue with basically all single player AAA games that the games media turns a blind eye to. Player/Enemy engagements have been stale for literally decades now.
 
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