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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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B-Dubs said:
So he's going to do it at 4am on Twitter then.
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He's not due for sentencing until October 5th. I don't see any action happening until then. Also, I remember seeing a report run by my twitter that the White House had made no inquiries at all to the DoJ concerning the pardon as of last week.
 
The relationship between President Trump and Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, has disintegrated to the point that they have not spoken to each other in weeks, and Mr. McConnell has privately expressed uncertainty that Mr. Trump will be able to salvage his administration after a series of summer crises.

What was once an uneasy governing alliance has curdled into a feud of mutual resentment and sometimes outright hostility, complicated by the position of Mr. McConnell’s wife, Elaine L. Chao, in Mr. Trump’s cabinet, according to more than a dozen people briefed on their imperiled partnership. Angry phone calls and private badmouthing have devolved into open conflict, with the president threatening to oppose Republican senators who cross him, and Mr. McConnell mobilizing to their defense.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/22/us/politics/mitch-mcconnell-trump.html
 
So... odds on there being any actual violence in Phoenix tonight? Last time a big-big city event was built up this heavily was Chicago where an actual minor riot broke out.
 
Anyways, with Arizona, Virginia, New Hampshire, Maine, Nebraska 2, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, and Florida on the table, there's a ton of uncertainty and paths to 270 for everyone.

theprodigy said:
even if this is technically true that is way too close for comfort

(also isn't it 270, or am I doing my math wrong?)
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Dems will win the EV from ME-1 regardless.
 
balladofwindfishes said:
Mitch, I'm pretty sure there's a way you can figure out that would make it so you have to deal with some guy same Mike Pence and not Trump
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Mitch knows...
In offhand remarks, Mr. McConnell has expressed a sense of bewilderment about where Mr. Trump’s presidency may be headed, and has mused about whether Mr. Trump will be in a position to lead the Republican Party into next year’s elections and beyond, according to people who have spoken to him directly.
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whyamihere said:
Anyways, with Arizona, Virginia, New Hampshire, Maine, Nebraska 2, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, and Florida on the table, there's a ton of uncertainty and paths to 270 for everyone.



Dems will win the EV from ME-1 regardless.
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edit: nvm Trump already won ME-2 I'm dumb
 
Random Human said:
Hey Mitch, if you really don't like him, I can think of one thing you could do to really stick it to him.
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Even if he brought up impeachment charges, there's no guarantee that he'd get enough votes to oust him. If Trump is impeached and acquitted, it will only hurt Mitch. I wouldn't be surprised if the started preliminary talks with other Republicans about how they'd vote in such a scenario, though.
 
Sure, it cannot be "salvaged," but USS Pussitania can still destroy the country from the sea floor, and swapping in a different helmsman is a foreign concept to Mitch and co. A presidency cannot truly fail if it's still a presidency.
 
ratcliffja said:
Even if he brought up impeachment charges, there's no guarantee that he'd get enough votes to oust him. If Trump is impeached and acquitted, it will only hurt Mitch. I wouldn't be surprised if the started preliminary talks with other Republicans about how they'd vote in such a scenario, though.
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The ability to whip enough votes to get President Pence should be easy for the GOP. It's hard to see not getting unanimous support from democrats so you'd only need to get less than half the GOP congress to go along
 
ratcliffja said:
Even if he brought up impeachment charges, there's no guarantee that he'd get enough votes to oust him. If Trump is impeached and acquitted, it will only hurt Mitch. I wouldn't be surprised if the started preliminary talks with other Republicans about how they'd vote in such a scenario, though.
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Wouldn't impeachment proceedings have to start in the House anyway? IIRC, it's the House that votes to start the whole procedure (a simple majority is enough) and, at the end, the Senate would have to vote with a two thirds majority to actually unseat the President.
 
BronsonLee said:
ABC News Twitter:

NEW: Pres. Trump will not take action to pardon controversial former Sheriff Joe Arpaio today, Press Secretary Sarah Sanders says.
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I'd bet that he wanted to, but cooler heads, like Kelly, talked him out of it.

But yeah, probably tomorrow, in a speech or a tweet, he's gonna say "you know what, I AM going to pardon Arpaio".
 
whyamihere said:
It was Trafalgar, but they're also an R pollster.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitRFpUd3lHV21ZdGs/view

But the only independent pollster that's polled the race so far has her up by 8.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/07/31/poll-kid-rock-trails-stabenow/104176822/

There just isn't a lot of polling at this point.

But the 538 story quotes them as saying this, which, yeah.
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Thanks for the information.

I'm curious if Trafalgar was actually able to better poll rural voters in those Midwestern states or if it was just dumb luck.
 
whyamihere said:
N=400 is the lowest you can get while still being acceptable so, eh. I don't buy this.
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I think it is true that Flake is in trouble, but I'd want to see a more reputable pollster dive in here, much like with the Roanoke poll of Virginia (which also lines up with my expectations, but they suck).

Like PPP should do an actual poll with Sinema and Ward, instead of generic approve/disapprove and "Democratic opponent" questions.

Wonder if Trump gives Ward a shout-out tonight. A president endorsing a primary challenger to an incumbent would be fairly unprecedented (think Bush endorsing Chafee in 2006, or Obama endorsing Specter in 2010 - ironically, they both lost), but what isn't about this fucking administration.
 
Kusagari said:
What happened to the rumors about DeWitt jumping into the primary as well?
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Recently he made some comments that, while not confirming one way or the other, suggest he's not super interested in the gig.

The Mercers just injected $300 grand into Ward's campaign and Trump sent out a tweet about her, so I think she's their candidate.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Recently he made some comments that, while not confirming one way or the other, suggest he's not super interested in the gig.

The Mercers just injected $300 grand into Ward's campaign and Trump sent out a tweet about her, so I think she's their candidate.
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Flake would have been complete toast if DeWitt had jumped in. He might be able to hang out just because of how bad Ward is.

Though he'll hopefully lose in the general regardless.
 
Kusagari said:
Flake would have been complete toast if DeWitt had jumped in. He might be able to hang out just because of how bad Ward is.

Though he'll hopefully lose in the general regardless.
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I want Ward to win the primary and lose the general.

I'd rather the establishment GOP be the ones to say "I told you so" than fucking Trump.
 
whyamihere said:
Anyways, with Arizona, Virginia, New Hampshire, Maine, Nebraska 2, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, and Florida on the table, there's a ton of uncertainty and paths to 270 for everyone.



Dems will win the EV from ME-1 regardless.
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Virginia is not going to be that competitive in 2020.
 
Tamanon said:
I think she's setting herself up for future runs, knowing this whole current Trump kick will die out. She's a pretty dangerous opponent, IMO.
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Which is precisely why they sent her to fail at the UN, with the absolutely impossible task of having to tell every other country to try to not listen to Trump. Career suicide, but not really a position you can refuse. The confederate flag removal would also seriously hurt her in a GOP primary.
 
sc0la said:
Tangentially related:
this is my internal reasoning why I always procrastinate doing stuff like cleaning out the closet / garage etc.
"If a meteor kills us all tomorrow I sure as hell don't want to waste my final day on earth cleaning out the garage."

My wife doesn't like this answer.
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When my wife insists I shovel snow out of the driveway, I tell her to say at my funeral that at least I died doing what I truly loved.
 
balladofwindfishes said:
Virginia is moving more blue, PA is moving more red, these aren't comparable at all.
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I'm just skeptical of the idea that in 2017 we can safely declare a state that went 5.32% Clinton necessarily safe. It was Clinton's neglect of the blue wall and assumption that prior margins would be maintained that lead to her overreach and defeat. I'd hate to see the Democrats aim for the repeat. Any reasonably close state Clinton won should be appropriately reinvested in campaign-wise - that includes Virginia.
 
A tad off topic, but something that really disappoints me is that if Letterman still was doing his show, he'd have put that "Trump staring into the eclipse" picture up every night for a month.

I miss The Late Show with David Letterman :(
 
Crab said:
I'm just skeptical of the idea that in 2017 we can safely declare a state that went 5.32% Clinton necessarily safe. It was Clinton's neglect of the blue wall and assumption that prior margins would be maintained that lead to her overreach and defeat. I'd hate to see the Democrats aim for the repeat. Any reasonably close state Clinton won should be appropriately reinvested in campaign-wise - that includes Virginia.
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Unless trump somehow is able to appeal to college educated voters and minorities I don't think VA is in danger of turning red or being that competitive. The democrats will likely still treat VA as a swing state in 2020 unless polling says otherwise by then.
 
Plinko said:
A tad off topic, but something that really disappoints me is that if Letterman still was doing his show, he'd have put that "Trump staring into the eclipse" picture up every night for a month.

I miss The Late Show with David Letterman :(
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God, Letterman would've been so brutal to Trump. The most brutal of any of the hosts.
 
I just don't think you can make a ton of assumptions about 2020 and have to be comfortable that there's a ton of uncertainty and probably more so than 2016. There are a lot of really strange combinations that are reasonable and there's something that resembles Carter's map where he was able to cobble together disparate groups to get to 270. Is that Trump's map in 2016? A Democrats's map in 2020? I don't know yet. I'm not willing to count anything out besides the obvious.
 
Crab said:
I'm just skeptical of the idea that in 2017 we can safely declare a state that went 5.32% Clinton necessarily safe. It was Clinton's neglect of the blue wall and assumption that prior margins would be maintained that lead to her overreach and defeat. I'd hate to see the Democrats aim for the repeat. Any reasonably close state Clinton won should be appropriately reinvested in campaign-wise - that includes Virginia.
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Virginia was more blue in 2016 than it was in 2012, compared to the popular vote. In a bad year for the Democrats.

If a Republican is winning VA, they're already winning the presidency.
 
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