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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why

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IggyChooChoo said:
How does the reconciliation window fit into all this? That deadline seems a lot more flexible than I thought it was back in March. How much time does the Senate have to work on this? Can they extend it at will?
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I don't think that matters at all. I'm pretty sure they can just keep postponing it as long as they want as long as it doesn't go into next year.

The biggest issue with reconciliation won't be the time limit, but that the things that got the freedom caucus to vote for the bill very likely are not able to be included in a reconciliation bill, so even if it gets out of the senate, it could just die again in the house.
 
balladofwindfishes said:
It was like there was suddenly a cloud over DC yesterday that caused everyone to collectively lose their minds.

I imagine there's A LOT of regret today from what happened yesterday.
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I think so too. Such a bizarre spectacle. Pissing off a large number of people, then celebrating like they won the superbowl because they managed to get a Republican bill passed through the Republican controlled House. Now the Senate is basically tossing the bill out anyway and starting over, so it was a complete waste of time and political capital. If it's one thing Repubs do well, it's waste everyone's time, so I'm not surprised by that part, but man, the potential price to pay for their arrogance is staggering.

And of course Spicer isn't here to do the press conference after the first legislative "achievement" of this White House. I'm sure he had something very important to do.
 
Gov. Mike Huckabee‏ @GovMikeHuckabee

For Cinco de Mayo I will drink an entire jar of hot salsa and watch old Speedy Gonzales cartoons and speak Spanish all day. Happy CdMayo!
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I can't tell if this is supposed to be funny and racist, or just racist.
 
Wilsongt said:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

Rather than causing a big disruption in N.Y.C., I will be working out of my home in Bedminster, N.J. this weekend. Also saves country money!
9:02 AM · May 5, 2017


....um.

What was "phase 2" of Trumpcare again?
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He's to afraid to step foot into NYC. He has to know how hated he is there and especially after the shit he and the republicans pulled yesterday. I believe there were a lot of protest no matter where he went yesterday when he was in Manhattan. I'd be very surprised if any republican in the city wants him around.

Wilsongt said:
Our elected officials, lady and gentlemen.
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I expect more and more of this to start appearing. The people in states and districts that Hillary won in were extremely stupid. For what? To give Trump, the person hated in your districts, some type of win!?
 
shinra-bansho said:
It is a general comment to a variety of people thinking Duckworth is a top contender.

And actually just a general comment considering all the top contenders are women really.

For example comment above. No, sexism was very much a factor in this campaign too. Yes, Clinton had accumulated decades of misogynistic hate. But sexism is still pervasive well outside of personal Clinton derangement.
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Case in point: Elizabeth Warren's falling approval numbers. And general vitriol she gets when it is even suggested she run for higher office. Even here!

Edit: Well maybe not vitriol here, but more of an acknowledgement that she's unpopular and would have little to no shot at further office even though on paper she would be a liberal champion.
 
GoldenEye 007 said:
Case in point: Elizabeth Warren's falling approval numbers. And general vitriol she gets when it is even suggested she run for higher office. Even here!
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I love Warren, I just think she is not loved enough by the centrists of the party and lost a lot of goodwill with the Bernie wing by staying out of the primaries so completely. She's been on-point in terms of holding Trump to task for his sins, pretty damned excellent speaker, but I don't think Dems can get away with a lecturing college professor type as a counter to 4 years of Trump.
 
GoldenEye 007 said:
Case in point: Elizabeth Warren's falling approval numbers. And general vitriol she gets when it is even suggested she run for higher office. Even here!

Edit: Well maybe not vitriol here, but more of an acknowledgement that she's unpopular and would have little to no shot at further office even though on paper she would be a liberal champion.
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Elizabeth Warren is awesome, but I can't fathom any Democrat who wants her to run for president. She would get wrecked. Might as well run Nancy Pelosi.
 
It's stupid to say this before candidates start announcing presidential runs and we get to see their campaigns in action -- particularly since our current and former presidents were not considered serious contenders this far out from their elections -- but right now I feel like, even if we run a great candidate, our best hope at unseating Trump is for Kasich to try to primary him. Even if he loses -- which he likely would -- I can't help but look at HW, Carter, Ford, and LBJ and not think their re-election bids weren't severely hurt by the fact that they had to survive primary challengers first (or in LBJ's case, not run because of primary challengers, which then hurt Humphrey who was effectively running as LBJ part 2).

Slacker said:
Elizabeth Warren is awesome, but I can't fathom any Democrat who wants her to run for president. She would get wrecked. Might as well run Nancy Pelosi.
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Plenty of Dems want her to run but I think that's because so many people are desperate to defeat Trump in 2020 and there aren't many nationally known Democrats right now. If you cross Biden and Bernie off the list because of their age, that leaves you with Warren. And fwiw, Reid has encouraged Warren to run, which I think is a serious misread of things.
 
jmdajr said:
How soon can I get my ballot to primary these fools out of here.
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You assume we're actually going to have fair elections come 2018.

Trump congratulated Erdogan on his power grab. I wouldn't put it past the awful, terrible, no good, very bad Pumpkin to try something similar.
 
Wilsongt said:
You assume we're actually going to have fair elections come 2018.

Trump congratulated Erdogan on his power grab. I wouldn't put it past the awful, terrible, no good, very bad Pumpkin to try something similar.
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He would suspend the elections if he could, but I'm not sure he knows how. He can't just write an executive order saying elections are suspended and there will be no judicial review of it.
 
Rebel Leader said:
Never post that again.
Are we clear on that?
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The likelihood of me posting that again coincides with a politician making a meme ad. That's on them, not me.

thepotatoman said:
Biggest reason hillary lost is not doing that for real.

And I came for the dumb overwatch theme, but stayed for all the dumbfounded faces and defeated sighs from an apparent debate killing spree.
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It's an entertaining ad for sure. I'm just curious how youths will view it.
 
Wilsongt said:
You assume we're actually going to have fair elections come 2018.

Trump congratulated Erdogan on his power grab. I wouldn't put it past the awful, terrible, no good, very bad Pumpkin to try something similar.
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What, realistically, can he do that's no different than the usual voting restrictions?

Sign an executive order that'll just get immediately slammed in the courts?

thepotatoman said:
He would suspend the elections if he could, but I'm not sure he knows how. He can't just write an executive order saying elections are suspended and there will be no judicial review of it.
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Yeah, this.

I'm honestly more afraid as to what he'll try to do if he loses, to be quite honest.
 
IggyChooChoo said:
How does the reconciliation window fit into all this? That deadline seems a lot more flexible than I thought it was back in March. How much time does the Senate have to work on this? Can they extend it at will?
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Deadline is the start of the 2018 budget process, which shouldn't be later than june.

They delay the 2018 budget past that and they give up a lot of leverage to get stuff changed with that budget. They delay the AHCA vote and they lose out on the one reconciliation per budget, making passing it and tax reform a lot more difficult.
 
Slacker said:
Elizabeth Warren is awesome, but I can't fathom any Democrat who wants her to run for president. She would get wrecked. Might as well run Nancy Pelosi.
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She's not going to win anything, thankfully. Although she will have a lot of money. I just don't see her making a dent in the south or Midwest during the primaries.
 
Blader said:
It's stupid to say this before candidates start announcing presidential runs and we get to see their campaigns in action -- particularly since our current and former presidents were not considered serious contenders this far out from their elections -- but right now I feel like, even if we run a great candidate, our best hope at unseating Trump is for Kasich to try to primary him. Even if he loses -- which he likely would -- I can't help but look at HW, Carter, Ford, and LBJ and not think their re-election bids weren't severely hurt by the fact that they had to survive primary challengers first (or in LBJ's case, not run because of primary challengers, which then hurt Humphrey who was effectively running as LBJ part 2).



Plenty of Dems want her to run but I think that's because so many people are desperate to defeat Trump in 2020 and there aren't many nationally known Democrats right now. If you cross Biden and Bernie off the list because of their age, that leaves you with Warren. And fwiw, Reid has encouraged Warren to run, which I think is a serious misread of things.
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Did you see Kasich wrote a book about "divided America"? I think, at least as of right now it's more likely he runs than not.
 
Catching up:

Zuckerberg has zero charisma. He might have a shot in a state race, but not for president.

Duckworth: She's my senator, but I still don't feel like I know what she stands for. She hasn't made a big show of stumping for some issue.

Warren: Seems more effective as a counter than as a candidate. Also, doesn't seem interested.

I like the idea of Franken doing something. Hell, after Trump normalized so many things, his entertainment industry past should easily be a non-issue.
 
Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
She's an anti-interventionist politician with military experience and pretty tv-ready speaking skills who shored up her street cred by getting off the DNC train before the Bernie wing went nuts, and she's pretty and surfs. She had all the superficial qualities to be a politician with mainstream "cool" appeal, and I don't think the average voter would give two shits about the stuff in her history that make PoliGAF despise her. I go shallow with my analysis of presidential candidates because I know so few even look beyond the shallow, especially in the general election.

The Assad gassing denial stuff, however, is something she is not going to be able to overcome.
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Assad gassing denial and her frequent appearances on right-wing outlets because of how much she liked to bash Obama over his coddling of "radical Muslim extremists."
 
Refuse to even acknowledge serious 2020 contenders till post 2018. Judging optics of 2020 from 2017 is foolish. Spitballing names is whatever, but it's not worth much at the moment.
 
Ignatz Mouse said:
Catching up:

Zuckerberg has zero charisma. He might have a shot in a state race, but not for president.

Duckworth: She's my senator, but I still don't feel like I know what she stands for. She hasn't made a big show of stumping for some issue.

Warren: Seems more effective as a counter than as a candidate. Also, doesn't seem interested.

I like the idea of Franken doing something. Hell, after Trump normalized so many things, his entertainment industry past should easily be a non-issue.
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I'll add to this:

Corey Booker: Charismatic but would face serious hurdles/accusations when put under any media scrutiny

Tulsi Gabbard: Virulently islamaphobic and is one of the most conservative dems in the pack. Bad fit.

There isn't an easy answer on who should run in 2020. Hope its someone young and charismatic.
 
shinra-bansho said:
I think they are.

I think Duckworth will have to contend with also being Asian and disabled. (Ask John Kerry if their military heroism means anything).

I think Warren will have to contend with also being old.

I think Harris will probably have to contend with never having biological children.

And Gillibrand will probably have to contend with being a blonde white woman from NY after a blonde white woman from NY lost. (Despite generic white men losing all the time.)

I don't think Cortez Masto is even in the running. And she'll have no money base as the Jr Senator from Nevada.
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And on the male side:
Booker will have to deal with being a wall street $hill and not being married along with (possibly true) assertions that he's gay.
----
The only white man I see being able to do well with black voters in the ~South is Biden. Texas is a toss up who could even win that since there's a lot of white Dems there.


Ignatz Mouse said:
Duckworth: She's my senator, but I still don't feel like I know what she stands for. She hasn't made a big show of stumping for some issue.
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What did she run on in the election? She seemed like she was just sliding through on being a Dem on a good year in IL. But that's how they always look from afar. Like Kamala was always going to easily win but I knew being in CA she was going all in on BLM and systemic racism acting as a character witness on police brutality.
 
Dylan Scott‏Verified account
@dylanlscott

The senators working on the Senate health care bill:

McConnell
Hatch
Alexander
Enzi
Thune
Cruz
Lee
Cotton
Gardner
Barrasso
Cornyn
Portman
 
Blader said:
I like the idea of Brown but the only time I've seen him speak was at the DNC last summer and he didn't sound that great. Not sure if he is a normally charismatic guy and was just having an off day, but as a potential 2020 pick (or what I thought at the time was a 2024 pick) I wasn't sold.

Franken is an interesting choice, I don't know how he would play nationally. But I also worry that Franken and Brown are the 2017 equivalent of John Edwards: the "let's chase the white, rural working-class demographic with one of their own because what else can we do to win" candidate. I don't know that that me-tooism ever plays well, at least for Dems (e.g. John Kerry being our military answer to Bush's wartime commander-in-chief image).
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Ever since the '92 race, i'd argue that elections have been partly won on likeability. No coincidence that the more charismatic candidate has won ever since Clinton took down papa Bush.

Trump's got likeability for some reason despite being all the vile things that he is, people won't care about anything wrong Franken has going for him running against a man who admitted to rape on TV.

The me-tooism is more about appearing as Republican Lite, which was Kerry's main problem on foreign policy. He didn't provide a clear contrast to Bush that would've helped stoke the anti-war vote (since cracks were already starting to show in Iraq in late 04, even if it took another year for the disaster narrative to set in).
 
holy shit lololol this is a real tweet I just screencapped it myself
uq0ba0y.png
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https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/05/05/us/politics/senate-russia-trump-associates.html

WASHINGTON — The Senate Intelligence Committee, seeking to accelerate its broad investigation into Russian meddling in the presidential election, has asked a number of high-profile Trump campaign associates to hand over emails and other records of communications and dealings with Russian officials and businesspeople.


Among those who said they had received the requests were Roger J. Stone, an informal adviser to President Trump, and Carter Page, a businessman and former foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign. Paul Manafort, the former campaign chairman, and Michael T. Flynn, the former national security adviser, were also sent letters, said the officials with knowledge of the investigation. Representatives for both men declined to comment.


Recipients to list all the meetings they had with Russian officials or business people from June 16, 2015, through Jan. 20, 2017. It set a May 9 deadline for a response.

Then, by May 19, the committee requested that the recipients hand over records of all communications — including emails, text messages and phone logs — with Russian officials or business people from the same period. It also asks them for information on any of their financial or real estate holdings related to Russia and to list any meetings they know of between other Trump campaign associates and Russians.
 
Bonen no Max'd said:
Did you see Kasich wrote a book about "divided America"? I think, at least as of right now it's more likely he runs than not.
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Yeah, and he's doing a tour that just happens to take him through places like New Hampshire and hit the press circuit. He did an interview with Politico the other day and was asked if he plans to run in 2020, and said something like "maybe, that's so far out, we'll see." Which is fucking crazy to me! That a Republican governor, just three months into a Republican president's term, wouldn't categorically rule out trying to primary his own party's president. Can you imagine any Dem in May 2009 saying they may run against Barack Obama in 2012? :lol

So yeah, I think it's definitely on his mind.

BoogieWoogie said:
Are any of these not batshit?
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Portman might be the least batshit, if that's what you're asking.
 
Blader said:
Yeah, and he's doing a tour that just happens to take him through places like New Hampshire and hit the press circuit. He did an interview with Politico the other day and was asked if he plans to run in 2020, and said something like "maybe, that's so far out, we'll see." Which is fucking crazy to me! That a Republican governor, just three months into a Republican president's term, wouldn't categorically rule out trying to primary his own party's president. Can you imagine any Dem in May 2009 saying they may run against Barack Obama in 2012? :lol

So yeah, I think it's definitely on his mind.
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He;s in it for the free food.
 
RastaMentality said:
What did she run on in the election? She seemed like she was just sliding through on being a Dem on a good year in IL. But that's how they always look from afar.
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That's what it looked like up close, too!

Seriously, Kirk barely won in the 2010 off-year wave, and while moderate, didn't really stand a chance. Duckworth just had to be non-Republican.

She kept her head down, and capitalized on Kirk's desperation to not be associated with Trump. Then he said Dumb Racist Thing and she didn't have to worry at all.
 
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